back-lay-trade-horses-football: 16/10

Running late today -so many matches.
Of the horses , I might chance Delegator today - well backed - all red like Willing Foe yesterday and 1.44 is generous to place.
Footy wise, I cannot see West Brom taking 3 points from another top 4 side away from home for the 2nd week running. Man Utd scored 3 in last 3 home matches.
Benfica look rock solid in Portugeuse cup but team news ideal.

******ONE A DAY - 150 NEWMARKET - DELEGATOR TO PLACE*****

I'll personally be involved too in Man utd and Benfica and perhaps Werder over 1.5 goals

1pm - Dinamo Kiev v Karpaty - 1.44 home - 1-0 Karpaty win and 1-1 draw means I would not get involved here. Karpaty may be a bogey team
1pm - FC Viikingit v MP - 1.22 home - Viiking have won 6 of their last 7 , and won last 5 straight.
1pm - PoPA v Klubi-04 - 1.22 home MP have only won 2 of last 10. Finnish Division 2 so can we trust this league?
115pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Amkar - 1.24 home - WDWDD in last few head to heads so possibility of a draw could herald a lay of Amkar.
WWDWWDW in last 7 league matches. Have also lost to Auxerre in Champions League and beaten Anderlecht and AEK Athens in Europa league.
In fine form at the moment are Zenit. Asians start at +1.5
Unbeaten in last 12 at home , drawing 2.
8 of Amkar's last 12 matches have seen 1-0 scorelines ( 5 losses and 3 wins) so perhaps they are ultra defensive? ( this ties in with the prevalence of draws in head to heads?)
Of their 4 wins in last 12, as you know 3 have been 1-0 and one has been 2-1. Back Zenit with a 0-0 or 1-0( to Amkar) cover?
2pm - Blokhus v Otterup - 1.38 home
230pm - B Munich v Hannover - 1.43 home - Bayern lost 3 already this season and lost last 2 on the trot. A hatrick of losers not wanted especially with home advantage.WDDL so far at home. Coinciding with absence of Robben.
WLW away for Hannover this season. Hannover have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 2 this season so in better form than Bayern.
Last 3 head to heads have been 7-0, 3-0 and 5-1 to Bayern. So looks a good opportunity to win based on head to heads ( rather than recent form!)
HAnnover have only lost 2 of last 12.
1.24 over 1.5 goals includes both sides
230pm - W Bremen v Freiburg - 1.51 home - 5 of 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals with Werder and 6 of 7 for Freiburg and would lead me to over 1.5 goals - 1.16 -
3pm - Arsenal v Birmingham - 1.32 home - I have learnt from the West Brom game - no Fabregas = no bet. No creative spark when he is out. DWDD in last 4 head to heads ( win came at the Arsenal)
+1 asian handicap starts pays homage to Brum's defensive qualities ( although those are more prevalent when Brum are at home.)
2 losses on the trot for Arsenal. Wenger would not want a 3rd, or a 2nd home defeat on the trot.
6,5,5 the goals scored at the Emirates in 3 home matches ( WWL) .
Perfect enhanced bet territory if Brum take the lead.
DWDDLDL for Brum this season, and away from home DDL - the 2 draws being score draws 2-2 so they can score away from home.
1.19 over 1.5 goals looks enticing and would account for any West Brom type antics. Goalkeeper worries for Arsenal allow opposition a sighter on goal.
Brum set up really to draw .
Anyone entertaining straight win only would insist upon Fabregas. The missing link in the loss to West Brom
3pm - Man Utd v West Brom - 1.29 home - 5-0 anad 4-0 Man Utd wins in last 2 head to heads. Surely lightening will not strike twice this afternoon and West Brom take the scalp of another of the top 4 at their ground?
United are unbeaten this season, and perfect 3 from 3 at home, scoring 3 in each home match.
2 losses for West Brom have come against Chelsea and Liverpool , coincidentally present and former top 4 sides, and their most famous win was at Arsenal, another top 4 side. The probability is that they will lose against top 4 sides rather than win.
West Brom are unbeaten in their last 4 matches DWWD so Di Matteo is doing something. Interestingly in 3 of those 4 matches, they conceded the first goal. At Arsenal they scored the first 3 yet still conceded 2 after that. Likely they will concede at some stage today.
1.;17 over 1.5 goals.
3pm - QPR v Norwich - 1.77 home - WWWWD at home , unbeaten in 10 this season, only 2 draws, in 9 of 10 matches they have scored 2 or more - in fine fettle.
8 of Norwich's 10 matches have featured 2 goals or more
2 1-0's and a 1-1 amongst the away results for Norwich hint that they are tight away from home.
Played one top 4 side and lost 3-2 so expectation to lose or draw v QPR
3pm - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.45 home - 2nd v 3rd in the league hence the relatively bigger price for Rangers.
7 wins and needed last second winner away at Hearts to keep record intact. It will end soon as there have been a few last minute winners.
These 2 have drawn 3 of last 4 head to heads with a whopping 6-1 home win for Rangers wedged inbetween.
9pm - Benfica v Arouca - 1.15 home ( in the 3pm coupon for some reason) - division 1 v division 2 in Portugeuse Cup +2 goal asian handicap start signals easy evening for Benfica with home advantage.
Arouca have drawn 4 of last 6, Benfica have won 5 of last 7 - one of those defeats was in Champions League.
In good form of late and should win with home advantage if putting out a first team and taking this Cup seriously.

330pm - Collombey-Muraz v Young Boys - 1.08 away - Swiss Cup - goals likely
345pm - The New Saints v Haverfordwest - 1.23 home
4pm - Collex-Bossy v Sion - 1.06 away
5pm - AC Milan v Chievo - 1.49 home - AC Milan seem to have resorted to typical Italian football play - last 4 results 1-1, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1( away win)
WDW at home this season. As far as I am concerned 1-0's do not make for comfortable afternoons - especially when Chievo have won their 2 away matches this season 3-1.Last 4 head to heads have been 1 -goal-in-it games - 1-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-0 all wins for Milan.
Too tight for me to wade in at 1.49, although some leeway backing the 1-0 correct score. Chievo's last 2 matches have been 1-0 loss and 0-0 draw.

5pm - Besiktas v Manisaspor - 1.41 home - only lost 2 of last 12 matches, 7 game unbeaten run between last defeat and most recent ( last match 1-0)
Have won 9, drawn 2 and lost 1 at home. LWW this season at home.
LLLLWWL for Manisaspor this season includes LLW away. What is tricky is that they beat Trabonspor away 3-1, and Trabonspor beat Besiktas 1-0 last time out! Manisaspor clearly a capable side when they want to be .
5pm - Hajduk Split v Slaven Belupo - 1.3 home
5pm - Metalist v Volyn - 1.36 home
530pm - Red Bull Salzburg v KSV Superfund - 1.3 home
545pm - Ajax v Breda - 1.22 home - Breda have won 1 and drawn 5 of last 6 so in good form. LAst head to head 1-1 draw but Ajax have won last 2 home head to heads 6-0 and 3-0.
DL in last 2 home matches ( league and Champions League) - surely Ajax will not go a 3rd home match without a win?

6pm - Rio Ave v Estrela FC - 1.18 home - Div 1 v Div 3 in Portugeuse Cup
7pm - Barcelona v Valencia - 1.4 home - 4th v top ( Valencia top)
LWD at home for Barca unacceptable -they have scored first in 5 of 6 games this season so possibly tradeable
Valencia have won 5 and drawn 1 with Athletico Madrid.
Barca tend to win the home head to heads.
7pm - Levski Sofia v Pirin Blagoevg - 1.19 home
7pm - Salthill Devon v Derry - 1.17 away
9pm - Malaga v Real Madrid - 1.43 away - malaga are great away but have lost all 3 at home.1-3, 1-2, 2-3
DWD away for Real include 2 0-0's . Surely then, if Real score, they will win? With the concession rate at home for Malaga, surely this will not be a 0-0 UNLESS Malaga have learnt from 3 home matches this season

150 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, Main Aim, 12/1 Cat Junior, Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing, 20/1 Duff, Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George, Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

DIOMED VERDICT: If Red Jazz can reproduce his third to Poet's Voice in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot he will make a bold bid to enhance the fine record of Barry Hills in this race, but the high-class DELEGATOR is likely to prove a tough nut to crack with freshness on his side and this trip looking ideal.

All red again and 7/4 here - course and distance winner and neck winner on 17th September

205 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Aiteen Thirtythree, 7/2 Acey, 5/1 Supercede, 15/2 Smooth Classic, 8/1 Pure Anticipation, 11/1 Majestic Mayhem, 12/1 Run With The Wind, 20/1 Doubletoilntrouble, 33/1 No Woman No Cry, 150/1 Smiling Applause.

DIOMED VERDICT: AITEEN THIRTYTHREE (nap) sets a decent enough standard on last season's placed form over hurdles.

I mention all reds in my eletter and here they appear. Top 2 are both all red with the value place bet being Acey ( assuming these 2 place of course)

225 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Frankel, 3/1 Dream Ahead, 5/1 Saamidd, 25/1 Roderic O´Connor, 66/1 Glor Na Mara, 100/1 Waiter´s Dream.

DIOMED VERDICT: There is considerable substance to Frankel's performances but the unrelenting hype has influenced the odds offered ante-post and DREAM AHEAD, whose spectacular Middle Park success puts him 5lb ahead on official ratings, offers much better value. Neither has been fully extended and the same has to be said of Saamidd though, as yet, he cannot match his rivals' achievements. Both Roderick O'Connor and Waiter's Dream have made the running so hopefully it will be a true test

3 horses under 25/1 for the 2 places.

350 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Picture This, 100/30 Wayward Prince, 4/1 Billie Magern, 5/1 Chicago Grey, 6/1 Balthazar King, 14/1 Babysitter, Hell´s Bay, 33/1 Pilgrims Lane.

DIOMED VERDICT: PICTURE THIS may be the answer.

Wayward Prince a non runner - make life easier for Picture this? I must say I am not enamoured by a novice chase particularly at Cheltenham.

400 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tasfeya, 3/1 Candys Girl, Snow Ridge, 10/1 Icy Blue, 14/1 Piccoluck, 16/1 Benidorm, Sangar, 20/1 Sandy Lonnen, 33/1 Dikanta, 50/1 Crowned Supreme, Fearless Poet, 150/1 Generale, Red Snapper.

DIOMED VERDICT: TASFEYA is open to improvement with further experience under his belt, as is Snow Ridge, who is also respected.

Johnston horse 33 in last 2 runs and expected to place again.

405 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Pyracantha, 6/1 Benmadigan, 8/1 Grand Diamond, Midnite Blews, Pillar Of Hercules, 10/1 Border Tale, Gwyre, Heart Of Dubai, Morning Time, Quai Du Roi, 14/1 Long Distance, Waterloo Corner, 25/1 Knock Three Times, 50/1 Just Posh.

DIOMED VERDICT: An open race in which the suggestion is PYRACANTHA, who is the type to progress further this season and makes plenty of appeal on this handicap debut.