What else looks solid? Over 2.5 goals in the Kazakstan v Germany match looks very enticing at 1.36 given the Germans at 1.61 scored 3 against Turkey. ( potential niggle - away from home)
England look strong but 3 consecutive 1-0's for Montenegro might signal a defensive unit looking to nick one.
*****ONE A DAY - Kahzakstan v Germany -back over 2.5 goals at 1.36***** Again tradeable if 2-0 early doors consider trading out.
A collector's item yesterday - a maiden horse who did what was suggested by the betting market. 4 under 20/1 and 3 of those 4 finished 1-2-3 . Gives me a thought. Permutation for the tricast?
Enhanced bet? Portugal under 19's 2-0 down. Good analysis there as their opponents, Azerbaijan , showed that perhaps their victory against Poland was no fluke. Here's how I did it. Focus on the 2 middle bets.
| Soccer > Portugal U19 v Azerbaijan U19 : Match Odds | Showing 1 - 4 of 4 Selections |
| Selection | Odds | Stake(€) | Bid type | Placed | Profit/loss(€) | |
| Azerbaijan U19 | 4.70 | 0.09 | Lay | 11-Oct-10 17:00 | 0.09 | |
| Portugal U19 | 15.00 | 50.00 | Back | 11-Oct-10 17:22 | -50.00 | |
| Portugal U19 | * | 4.11 | 155.87 | Lay | 155.87 | |
| The Draw | 3.70 | 0.13 | Lay | 11-Oct-10 17:00 | -0.35 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | -50.00 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | 155.61 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 105.61 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.6%: | 4.86 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 100.75 | |||||
£50 stake at odds of 15 and laid off at odds of 4.11 for a £100 green screen and £200 on Portugal.
I actually could have profited to the tune of £20 at 1-2 but held on for 2-2 and lower odds.
I just want to share this to show you how I use the message. Although not selected as a one a day candidate , it was a shock to stumble upon a 2-0 deficit for the Portugeuse.
1230 - Romania U21 v England U21 - 2.4 away - a massive price for Psycho's boys? 2-1 to England at home in 2010 head to head and 1-1 in 2007 head to head . ( Latter irrelevant as naturally under 21 teams change yearly.
Romania have won their last 7 at home, but before we get excited, 4 teams were Faroes, Andorra, Moldova and Latvia.
England have only lost one match away in their last 12, drawing 5 and winning 6.
England beat Romania 2-1 in last match. This is the rematch.
I am tempted here to lay Romania at 3.35 which is the equivalent of a 1.40 bet.
At any rate, the first goal scorers are likely to be layable in what I suspect with be a draw or a 1 goal tight match.
2pm - Bulgaria U19 v Luxembourg U19 - 1.19 home - both of these 2 sides have NOT WON A SINGLE MATCH IN THEIR LAST 12. Does this make Bulgaria u19 a betting proposition. Luxembourg must be truly shocking if Bulgaria are 1.19!!
2pm - Slovenia U19 v Malta U19 - 1.19 home - identical to the above match. Neither of these 2 sides has won any of their last 12. Their records are 10 losses and 2 draws in their last 12 matches.
4pm - Armenia v Andorra - 1.1 home - +2 to +2.5 asian handicap. Andorra are usually the whipping boys along with San Marino. 0-0 in 2007. Andorra have lost their last 12 matches.
Armenia WDLLWLLLWLLL (latest first) - last 2 matches show some glimmer of light. Unbeaten in last 2.
4pm - Azerbaijan v Turkey - 1.38 away - asians start at +1 . LLDDLD for Azerbaijan in their last 6 signals a lay. Turkey lost 3-0 to Germany ( expected I suppose - when Germany click, they score) Turkey in their last 12 have lost 3, won 8 and drawn 1. This makes the 1.38 very tempting.
DDDLLLLLDDDD for Azerbaijan at home, but hold on, the draws are against Kuwait , Honduras and a single interesting 1-1 draw against Russia.
4pm - Faroe Islands v Northern Ireland - 1.38 away - 3 of the Faroe's last 6 home matches have been 1 goal affairs and there have been a 1-1 draw. One of those 3 was a win too.
Quite something for the Faroes.
8 of Northern Ireland's last 12 matches have been either draws or one goal affairs. i.e. tight!
Focussing purely on the Euros NI drew 0-0 with Italy and won 1-0 away to Slovenia.
Likely we will see a tight match this evening with a breakthrough eventually.
430pm - Slavia Prague v Usti nad Labem - 1.45 home - Czech Cup and Slavia have lost their last 3 in the league and are playing a fellow Division 1 side. Prospective cup upset?
6pm - Kazakhstan v Germany - 1.11 away - in my mind Germany have defied the odds in their last 2 matches. Relatively big odds or 1.6 and higher and a 3-0 win against Turkey and 1-0 against Belgium. Likely to open the floodgates today.1.39 over 2.5 goals is interesting given the asian handicap starts at +2.
7pm - Liechtenstein v Czech Republic - 1.15 away - must win category for Czechs given the surprising 1-0 home loss v Lithuania , a match they were expected to win comfortably. + 2 asian handicaps.
715pm - Denmark v Cyprus - 1.42 home - not an easy game to read as the 4-4 home draw v Portugal showed us Cyprus at their optimum away from home ( or Portugeuse keystone cops defence)
730pm - San Marino v Moldova - 1.18 away 8,6,5,3,7,5,7 goals conceded by San Marino. 1-0 tight loss to Holland for Moldova last match.
8pm - England v Montenegro - 1.27 home - England are becoming dependable betting propositions again. England have scored 4 and 3 in the Euros so far and are unbeaten at Wem-ber-ley in their last 10 there. ( could be more but I only have last 12 games)
Montenegro have won their last 4, and their last 3 Euro qualifiers have all been 1-0, all 3 1-0 wins.
They have the ability to be pains in the arse it would seem so far in this Euro qualification .
8pm - France v Luxembourg - 1.04 home - France have won their last 2 qualifiers 2-0 after a 1-0 loss to Belarus. Are they turning a corner having got rid of their Thunderbirds puppet manager?
1.04 signals a goal fest.Asians start at +3 making over 3.5 goals at 1.89 tradeable.1.36 over 2.5 goals is interesting too.
8pm - Scotland v Spain - 1.4 away - a gift from the Gods? Scots struggle against Leichtenstein surely does not make them betting propositions against Barcelona , sorry I mean Spain? LWD for Scotland so far includes a potentially embarassing loss to Leichtenstein at home, salvaged by a 95th minute equaliser.
Surely this makes 1.4 Spain highly enticing.
350 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Swincombe Rock, 5/1 Ravenclaw, 13/2 Canticle, 10/1 Pheidias, Silver Bay.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SWINCOMBE ROCK is a young chaser of some potential and can follow up his Perth victory. |
Likely to be a reasonable place only price here as it is 2 places and a 3 mile chase. Trust the fav? Needs a clear round and to finish in the first 2. Now 2/5 1.16 illiquid market to place.
440 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Long Lashes, 5/2 Decorative, 7/2 Super Sleuth, 5/1 Za Za Zoom, 16/1 Titbit, 20/1 Seradim, 25/1 Whirly Dancer, 33/1 Personified,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Back on a soft surface it might be worth keeping faith with DECORATIVE, who had excuses when favourite for a Sandown Listed event last time, and she can turn the tables on Long Lashes. |
Decorative is all red, 7/4 and the one likely to shorten further.
SHORTLIST
Well only 2 meetings and those are the 2 races to take out of these meetings. There are others but they are largely maidens and a large lump of faith required
1230 - Romania U21 v England U21 - potential lay of Romania U21 here?
4pm - Armenia v Andorra - 1.1 home - always opposable are Andorra.
4pm - Azerbaijan v Turkey - 1.38 away - home team layable but can we make the leap and back the away side? They have a good recent record ( bar Germany)
6pm - Kazakhstan v Germany - 1.11 away - 1.89 over 3.5 goals is tempting here ( and tradeable) - Germans scored 3 at odds of 1.65 so 1.11 implies they will at least match this, and exceed it.
7pm - Liechtenstein v Czech Republic - 1.15 away - must wins generally do win. Really is a must win for the Czechs but their performance against Lithuania signals they are not ultra reliable.
730pm - San Marino v Moldova - 1.18 away - Moldova no world beaters but San Marino concede 3+ regularly and do not score.
8pm - England v Montenegro - 1.27 home - do the 3 1-0 wins for Montenegro signal a potentially frustrating night for England?
8pm - France v Luxembourg - 1.04 home - over 3.5 goals a good option here for a French side back scoring again when expected to.
8pm - Scotland v Spain - 1.4 away - am I missing something here? Scotland at home needed a Fergie-time 95th minute winner against Leichtenstein. This is the equivalent of Barcelona v 3rd in Scottish Premiership!!
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
4pm - Armenia v Andorra - 1.1 home
6pm - Kazakhstan v Germany - 1.11 away - 1.38 over 2.5 goals will probably rely upon Germany.1.95 over 3.5 goals is highly tradeable I would suspect.
7pm - Liechtenstein v Czech Republic - 1.15 away - must win but a note that Czechs are an unreliable betting proposition.
730pm - San Marino v Moldova - 1.18 away - again at the higher end of the risk scale, given Moldova are hardly world beaters.
8pm - France v Luxembourg - 1.04 home- 1.36 over 2.5 goals and 1.89 over 3.5 goals ( both ideally with trading heads on)
8pm - Scotland v Spain - 1.4 away - always a degree of personal suspicion when faced with " too good to be true" odds. Surely Scotland cannot cope with what is a Barcelona club side with a few good players chosen from other clubs.
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