I am hoping Herostatus will place in the first 3 in a tight head of the market.
2 excellent probability races yesterday at Pontefract saw the market leaders and horses with soft ground experience place with ease.
Hertha did not score but Porto did score first to trade.
China open overnight saw more ultra shorties in first rounds and plenty of opportunities for " out of hours" 2-0 set betting. I managed a multiple with Nadal/Murray/Monfils/Roddick/Djokovic. Paid 1.34 which was nice given the biggest priced was 1/7 and Nadal/Roddick/Djokovic were around 1.02. All won in 2 sets too, so do keep an eye out for these first rounds.
I have also spoken in the past about Dolgopolov and he won again last night at over evens. A tennis star of the future I am sure and always tradeable as he is a battler.
No football bets of interest today is a pity.
TENNIS
China Open Women's 2nd round
6/10 5am Wozniacki v Errani - 1.14 - she is the world Number 1 so should win these early round tussles.
Japan Open 2nd round
6/10 4am Nadal v Raonic - 1.04 and 1.12 for 2-0 sets in a very illiquid betting market.
Is this the sign of the day we have ahead? Soft ground Catterick begins with an amateur riders class 6 0-55 handicap.
Heavy ground at Leicester should preclude any betting unless the ground decimates fields as it has done in the last 2 days.
220 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Abtasaamah, 9/2 Luckbealadytonight, 11/1 Arabella Fenella, 25/1 Be A Good Lady, Bigalo´s Princessa, Mijanou, 66/1 Ever Roses, Phair Winter, Tsarina Louise,
| DIOMED VERDICT: This should represent a straightforward assignment for ABTASAAMAH, who shaped really well in a Newmarket maiden that has already produced a couple of winners. |
No ground concerns on the all weather and a strong Godolphin market leader.
Only 3 under 25/1 would mean that Luckbealadytonight and Arabella Fenella ( particularly the latter) are value alternatives.
255 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Riverstown, 5/2 Far Away So Close, 11/4 Apt Manor, 12/1 Sixteen Forty Two, 14/1 Barel Of Laughs, 16/1 Rheinland, 20/1 Charging Indian, 25/1 Nally Dancer, 33/1 Highdownhill, Matilda Highway, Miss Odetta, Saddles And Style, 50/1 Belle Of De Boreen, Railway Road, Starrystarrysky, Volkis O Blue, 66/1 Fantasy Belle, Glen Snurge, Laffan Island, Mr Eko,
I have followed Apt Manor the last twice and he has placed in both. Ruby walsh retains the ride today and as only one of 3 under 16/1 should have a good chance of placing. That said, all runs have been in bumpers and not over hurdles just yet.
Riverstown is the one for early market support at present.
310 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 1/16 Picture Editor, 14/1 Arctic Myth, 33/1 Hurricane Guest.
| DIOMED VERDICT: An obvious opportunity for the very promising PICTURE EDITOR to add to his debut Doncaster maiden win. |
Heavy ground though!! Should place although I do not know what the price will be.
350 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Herostatus, 3/1 Honest Strike, Strictly Lambada, 11/2 Bombadero, 15/2 Gakalina, 20/1 Mashdood, Surprise Us, 40/1 All We Know, 100/1 Spanish Cross, Tilly Thorpe.
| DIOMED VERDICT: STRICTLY LAMBADA represents a yard with a searing strike-rate at Southwell, and slower surfaces look to be her bag judged on her Ffos Las second. Herostatus can give her most to do. |
4 only under 33/1 should fight out the 3 places and Herostatus represents the Fanning/Johnston combo who I love.
Herostatus ran at Wolves last time out so has a degress of all weather experience.
530 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tobernea, 5/1 Royal Swain, 13/2 Hurlingham, 7/1 Maneki Neko, 9/1 Danceintothelight, Eijaaz, 10/1 Tropical Duke, 12/1 Kingdom Of Munster, Umverti, 16/1 Aegean Destiny, 20/1 Bagber.
| DIOMED VERDICT: HURLINGHAM wouldn't be a mortgage job but he looked a shade unlucky two outings back and had possible excuses next time. The forecast soft ground is in his favour and there should be no excuses off his current mark. |
Always a risk coming out again the day after running in heavy but the analysis of his race yesterday is interesting.
"The progressive TOBERNEA was always likely to appreciate this step up in distance and he landed the hat-trick with any amount left up his sleeve. He was 5lb higher than when narrowly winning at Hamilton 15 days earlier and that form got a big boost when the runner-up that day, Plan A, scored at Pontefract earlier in the day. He really had his race won off the home turn and was idling markedly out in front from 2f out, so rates value for a good bit further than his wide-winning margin. No doubt connections will be looking to get this big improver out under a penalty, and while itremains to be seen whether he turns out at Catterick today, he does hold other entries later in the week. Whatever the case, he could well rate a good bit higher as he matures further."
SHORTLIST
China Open Women's 2nd round
6/10 5am Wozniacki v Errani - 1.14 - 1-1 in head to heads - back in 2008 last head to head so its relevance may be questionable given Woz's improvement since.
World number 2 v World Number 40. I would stick with match odds only for this match. Early rounds and top 10 players are significantly different from those on the breaches of the top 40.
220 SOUTHWELL
Abtasaamah was a head 2nd on debut but is facing a debut on an all weather surface. 1.09 to place is a bit skinny considering this is a 2 year old having only his 2nd run.
Luckbealadytonight is a debutant for Johnston/Fanning and thus could bomb out on all weather and race debut or be a revelation. 1.44 to place and only one of 3 under 25/1
Arabella Fenella is the 3rd horse under 25/1, who is the most speculative choice as his 2.12 place only odds recount.
310 LEICESTER - just going by the market, Picture editor is 1.1 to win and 1.03 to place.
3 runners and 2 places, the value surely lies elsewhere. Arctic Myth and Hurricane Guest cannot really be split for me and it is a simple hit and hope regarding which of these 2 will be ( presumably ) 2nd .
Picture editor has only had one run and never raced on heavy ground.
Arctic Myth perhaps here? Hurricane guest tailed off in soft ground yesterday. Hope therefore that Arctic Myth beats Hurricane Guest. If he does then 1.68 currently is very generous.
A wholly speculative race this one which screams out to lay Picture editor given the heavy ground more in hope than expectation that he finds this ground too much.
350 SOUTHWELL
Original 3rd favourite Strictly Lambada is a non runner here leaving 4 horses under 25/1 in the betting forecast . These 4 should fight it out for the 3 places and I would chance Herostatus here simply as he is a Johnston/Fanning horse who was 2nd recently at Wolverhampton's all weather surface ( I believe Southwell has a unique surface but it is a confidence booster that Herostatus ran so well on the all weather of Wolves)
1.37 to place in an illiquid market is a nice price if we hope this is a 4 horse race for 3 places and those over 25/1 can be discounted
If being ultra picky, the sudden leap from 86 to 2nd place could signal an anomolous run but the analysis of that latter race was wholly positive for Herostatus.
The front 3 are ultra tight in the betting. The hope is they will dominate to ensure Herostatus his place in the first 3
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
No football today and soft and heavy ground leaves us really with the tennis ( early morning starts) and the all weather at Southwell.
A mention must be made regarding Picture Editor's race. I would maintain focus on the 2 outsiders in this 3 horse race and try to determine which one will beat the other. There is a good place only price available for Arctic Myth or Hurricane Guest, and, despite not knowing how Arctic Myth handles soft/heavy ground, I may choose him as Hurricane guest tailed off in soft yesterday.
China Open Women's 2nd round
6/10 5am Wozniacki v Errani - 1.14 - bet tomorrow - hope Woz plays as a World Number 2 can and wins. 1-1 in head to heads might signal caution but how relevant were these back in 2007 and 2008. Wozniacki has made a quantum leap up the rankings since.
350 SOUTHWELL would seem to be the race to focus upon today, albeit a maiden. Luckily these are 3 year olds and not the dreaded 2 year olds and we have a betting market which splits the field pretty much and automatically places our focus on the 4 horses under 25/1.
Of those 4, the front 3 are 7/4 ( 2/1 in places) , 9/4 ( threatening to become 2/1) and 5/2.
Quite frankly they should be all joint favourites.
The 7/1 horse could , of course, spoil the party and relegate one of the top 3 out of the placings. Also, dark horses in races such as these cannot be discounted.
As things stand, I would chance Herostatus to finish in the front 3. Johnston/Fanning and a recent spin at Wolverhampton ( 2nd) should hopefully signal an affinity with the Southwell artificial surface.
No comments:
Post a Comment