15/10

Dare we trust 2 year olds today? If so then Dordogne for Fallon/Johnston is interesting.
The Germans are usually efficient in the footballing department and the under 17's face an Estonian side who is in poor form.
Willing Foe is potentially a group horse running in a handicap. Well he is priced to win easily today, all red, backed already this morning bearing in mind we have a 550 race time

*****ONE A DAY 550 NEWMARKET - BACK WILLING FOE TO PLACE*****

I will follow the market here today and hope , indeed, this is a group horse in a handicap and with Dettori's assistance will at least finish in the first 3.






Overtly cautious yesterday when there was no need at Punchestown.
Arsenal ladies over 2.5 goals came in with ease 9-0 final result and that was my personal one a day, 1.14 the odds but 3 goals scored in a blink of an eye.

2pm - Estonia U17 v Germany U17 - 1.2 away - in running, asian handicap starts at +1.5 goals. Estonia have only won one of their last 12, drawing 2 and losing 9.
Contrasts with Germans winning 9, drawing 2 and losing 1.
LDLWLD for Estonia at home.
WLWWWD for Germany away.

Looks a clear contrast in fortunes here which makes the German odds justifiable , even though they are away from home?

4pm - Spartak Moscow v Alania Vladikavkaz - 1.33 home - most recent head to head was 5-2 home win for Alania. This shows they can beat Spartak so perhaps a neutral goals bet today? 1.3 over 1.5 goals is quite high considering they shared 7 goals last time. This is in running and thus tradeable.
Spartak have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 9.
LLDWLDLWL for Alania in their last 9 matches - inconsistency which hints that they may not be able to replicate the 5-2 head to head win of May 2010. 5 matches in the league of those 9 have ended less than 1.5 goals, so this may explain the 1.3 for over 1.5 goals.
530pm - Metalurg D v Shakhtar - 1.45 away an 8 game unbeaten run for Metalurg ended last time out but it shows them in fine fettle so I would not want to oppose them .
630pm - Yverdon v FC Basel - 1.23 away - Swiss Cup - Division 2 v the top flight.Yverdon have only won 3 of their last 12 matches - and one of those was a cup game.
Basel have only lost 3 of their last 12, and 2 of those were in the Champions League.
A first team should have a chance of bringing home the odds today. Illiquid on betfair.
8pm - Shelbourne v Mervue Utd - 1.15 home - Mervue lost 10 on the trot until a draw and win in their last 2, and Shelbourne won 5 on the trot until a 3-0 defeat v Derry City last time out.
Lost 8 and drawn 2 of last 10 matches away have Mervue and plenty of goals conceded. Not in running.

210 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Final Day, 5/2 There´s No Panic, 3/1 Queiros Bleu, 8/1 Total Submission, 10/1 Flaming Gorge, 12/1 Ceepeegee.

DIOMED VERDICT: The well-regarded FINAL DAY looks the one to beat with his latest Galway second looking all the better now.

Will Cheltenham provide us with the usual carnage as far as favourites are concerned? There's no panic has had Cheltenham experience while Final Day is predominantly an Irish raced horse.
Paul Carberry and Gordon Elliott are usually winning with regularity at Perth and it is interesting they are entered in a race of this calibre.

255 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Dordogne, 2/1 Loving Spirit, 11/4 Pivotman, 6/1 Mantoba, 16/1 Whey Sauce, 33/1 Emmeline Pankhurst, 66/1 Generous Pursuit, 100/1 Callipygos, Jamaica Grande, 200/1 Huckle Duckle.

DIOMED VERDICT: Not an easy choice between the unbeaten trio and LOVING SPIRIT, who has the benefit of course experience, is tentatively taken to beat Dordogne.

Very interesting market. 4 horses are 100/1 or bigger and only 4 are under 20/1 Dordogne looks very enticing personally with Fallon/Johnston combo, and I acknowledge that picking Johnston horses just because they are Johnston horses is perhaps not a guarantee of success each time.
In such a market however, where the hint is that 4 horses will be fighting for 3 places, Dordogne looks worth place backing?

345 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Glencadam Gold, 4/1 Captain Brown, 5/1 Coin Box, 14/1 Wolds Agent, 20/1 Miss T, 33/1 Blue Ronnie, Getabuzz, Hot Toddie, 50/1 Kieron´s Dream, Staerough View, 100/1 Geminus, Good Faith, Inca Chief, Newgate Dani, Our Mate Joe, Phair Winter, Primo Muscovado.

DIOMED VERDICT: Captain Brown and Coin Box look potential improvers but the obvious one is GLENCADAM GOLD.

Only 3 horses under 20/1 - trust the market or realise this is a 2 year old class 6 maiden?

550 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Willing Foe, 11/2 Ottoman Empire, 6/1 Times Up, 8/1 Life And Soul, 9/1 Classic Punch, Rashaad, 12/1 Chiberta King, 14/1 Classic Vintage, 16/1 Private Story, 25/1 Right Step, 28/1 Seeking The Buck.

DIOMED VERDICT: Quite a good race, but WILLING FOE is a potential Group horse in a handicap and it will be a surprise if he can't defy a mark of 92.

All red, backed all morning , and 5/4 now with next best at 6/1 " a potential Group horse in a handicap" - the betting indicates thus.
Dettori adds to the argument to place back.

740 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Franciscan, 7/2 Azlaa, 5/1 Polar Auroras, 7/1 Jibaal, 15/2 Melbury, 10/1 Falkland Flyer, Not So Bright, 12/1 Lady Platinum Club, 33/1 Granny Anne, Whitstable Native, 50/1 Bonjour Bongee, 66/1 Dancing With Fire.

DIOMED VERDICT: Luca Cumani is a past master when it comes to preparing one for a handicap campaign and the well-bred FRANCISCAN is expected to play a big part. Azlaa and Melbury could be the pick the opposition. Note the time of this race. Franciscan is already all red, backed this morning, and threatening 15/8 SHORTLIST 2pm - Estonia U17 v Germany U17 - 1.2 away -under 17's always a dodgy betting proposition, but the form says otherwise. Estonians clearly lacking form and Germans clearly, in stark contrast, in strong form. 630pm - Yverdon v FC Basel - 1.23 away - Swiss Cup and Yverdon have been losing in Division 2. A strong Basel side should win if the Cup is of any consequence to them. 255 NEWMARKET - looks a 4 horse race for 3 places with a slight drift for Dordogne. But Fallon/Johnston is an eyecatching combo. Loving spirit is hinting at shortening in price. Concern here? This is a 2 year old race and the front 3 are all one time outers ( albeit winners) 1.3 to place the front 2. Can we trust 2 year olds the better the class of race? 550 NEWMARKET - Willing foe is making his handicap debut and is up in trip to 1 mile 4 furlongs. The market screams confidence here and the horse is the only standout in the betting. 1.36 to place. The only horse under 2.2 in the place only market ( and , again, note the race time - such confidence so early in the day) SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST Ze Germans look strong at 2pm today against the Estonians. I would put my faith in the form showing a poor Estonian side v an inform German side. Slight concern re under 17's but they seem to have had a lot of games in 2010 so should be match fit and experienced. 255 NEWMARKET - dare we trust those 2 year olds? Can we place greater trust in them the higher the grade they run in? This should be a 4 horse race for 3 places, and although one of the 4 will not place, there is a greater likelihood any selection will place. Immediately I would focus on Dordogne and Loving Spirit to place but I reiterate - "can we trust 2 year olds who have only had one run" 550 NEWMARKET - Willing Foe has won already as far as the market is concerned!