back-lay-trade-horses-football: 30/9

*****ONE A DAY - 805pm - Palermo v Lausanne - Back Palermo at 1.22 in the match odds*****

Looks like Seria A v Swiss Division 2 here. Any semblance of a first team will suffice.

Easy for Big Issue. Barca did not win. But it was an enhanced bet once 1-0 down ( backable at 4 and layable at 2 once equalising)
Key lesson from yesterday was team news. Werder fielding a very weak team meant the Inter price was justified and, guess what, another over 2.5 goals Werder game.
For night owls, Joe Public lost 5-1 in the early hours, and yet another 2 year old ( Parlour games) failed to give his running as the market mover highlighted in the message won.

6pm- CSKA Moscow v Sparta Prague - 1.49 home - difficult to weigh up from their prospective league form. Both on good runs form wise. Correct score 2 market on Betfair optimistic? Asians start at +1.
6pm - CSKA Sofia v Porto - 1.55 away - 10 game winning streak for Porto, includes comprehensive defeat of Genk, who are dominating Belgian football. 2,2,3,3,2,4,3,3 goals scored by Porto in their last 8 matches.
Have won all 4 away matches this season.
Poor performance against Cliftonville Belfast might signal a tougher time against Porto tonight.
WLLDWDWWDLWL - a mixed bag for Sofia.+0.5 to +1 asian handicaps signals caution from Porto backers tonight.
6pm -Paris St-G v Karpaty - 1.47 home - France v Ukraine - we would assume the French league is the better equipped? The only pattern I can see is in Karpaty's last 5 games there have been 4,5,3,7,5 goals.
6pm - Sampdoria v Debrecen - 1.22 home - Sampdoria have only lost 1 of their last 7 matches , but, worryingly, 4 of their last 5 matches have been draws.
They are ultra low due to their opponents' league - the Hungarian League.
Debrecen have lost 3 of their last 4 matches, conceding 4,5,3 so now is perhaps the time to meet them.
Asians begin at +1.5 so are ideally expecting a 2+ goal win for Samp.
Last 2 Samp draws have been 0-0 - they are priced to end this sequence tonight.

6pm - Zenit St Petersburg v AEK - 1.34 home - 1-0 and 1-1 against Dundee United perhaps tells you the likely gulf between Zenit and AEK and a justification for the 1.34 match odds.
AEK are an uncharacteristic Greek side in that their recent games include goals! 4,4,4,2,1,3 in their last 6 matches.
Zenit have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5, but their abilities were perhaps exposed by 2-0 defeat to Auxerre recently in the Champions League. After that match, Zenit have scored 3,2,3,0,6 so are in good order. Expect the Greeks to struggle in Russia.
805pm - Palermo v Lausanne - 1.22 home - Seria A v Swiss league Division 2 - hence the odds. Palermo have scored 2,3,1,2,2 in their last 5 matches, the 1,2,2 came in defeats!! In the midst of these, they beat Juventus away 3-1 and only lost 2-1 to Inter Milan.
Well equipped, I would say, of bringing home the odds against a team from a very uncompetitive Swiss league Division 2.
Palermo were unbeaten at home in Seria A last season and this Division 2 Swiss side should be found out. They must be in the Europa League because they won the Toblerone Cup in Switzerland.
Compelling argument to back Palermo tonight on the proviso they actually want a run in the Europa League. They have already lost this season at home, albeit to Inter Milan after taking the lead.
805pm - Sp Lisbon v Levski Sofia - 1.47 home - Levski are undoubtedly in confident form, winning their last 7 on the bounce and unbeaten in 8., scoring 2,3,3,4,3,2,2,3 in the process.
Sporting have only socred 1 in their last 3 matches in contrast. You would suspect the Bulgarian league to be weaker than the Portugeuse, but there's no accounting for confidence (Levski) v doubt ( only 1 scored in last 3 matches for Sporting)
805pm - Villarreal v Club Brugge - 1.38 home - La Liga v Belgian league.
Villareal's only defeat at home in their last 12 was against Barcelona.
HAve won last 3 matches.
LWWDDWW for Brugge in their last 7 matches ( latest first) but how strong are their Belgian opponents?

TENNIS
Thailand Open
1.02 but 1.1 in 2-0 set betting for Rafa.

210 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sahafh, 7/2 Sally Friday, 11/2 Undulant Way, 7/1 Port Hollow, 10/1 Janicellaine, 12/1 Desert Shine, 16/1 Delphi Dream, 20/1 Gainsboroughs Best, 33/1 Last Act, 50/1 Miss T, Mrs Neat.

DIOMED VERDICT: UNDULANT WAY was behind Sally Friday recently but might be able to progress past her.

Sahafh reared up in the stalls like the Madame she is. Durcan/Godolphin so make amends today? Faith this time in a 2 year old maiden filly.

255 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Scantily Clad, 5/2 Heartbreak, 7/1 Novabridge, 12/1 Rothesay Chancer, 14/1 Misty Morn, 20/1 Press Release, Saxonette,

DIOMED VERDICT: This could be between SCANTILY CLAD and Heartbreak, with preference for the former, who looks more than capable of making an impact from his opening mark of 70.

Nursery ( 2 year old handicap) over 5 furlongs and good to soft ground.

Scantily clad the starting point in a 7 runner race for still 3 places.

310 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Harris Tweed, 100/30 Ship´s Biscuit, 6/1 Ted Spread, 7/1 Prizefighting, 9/1 Moose Moran, 12/1 Western Pearl, 16/1 Snoqualmie Star, 50/1 L Frank Baum.

DIOMED VERDICT: HARRIS TWEED ran away with a Listed race on soft last time and is the one to beat.

Price gappers in listed races must be respected. 10/11 - - - - -5/1

Impressive win on soft last time out, is this good to soft actually soft enough?

345 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 The Paddyman, 3/1 Royal Exchange, 7/2 Zaidan, 15/2 Casual Glimpse, 17/2 Surrey Star, 11/1 Rerouted, 16/1 Ahlaain, 20/1 Belgian Bill.

DIOMED VERDICT: ROYAL EXCHANGE can win again.

Absence of 3rd favourite makes this betting market difficult to read.

Royal Exchange is now favourite for Hughes/Hannon and form of 22111 - but winning runs will end soon - BUT will that preclude the horse from finishing in the first 3 as we want?

355 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Cadore, 7/2 Labarinto, 15/2 Dressing Room, 9/1 Perfect Mission, 10/1 Kepler´s Law, Pasquino, 11/1 Red Mercury, 16/1 Jelyvator, 20/1 Spirit Of Gondree, 28/1 Ferruccio, 33/1 Easydoesit, Hawridge Knight, 50/1 Cadmium Loch, Cliffords Reprieve.

DIOMED VERDICT: CADORE sets quite a decent standard on his latest improved Yarmouth maiden second.

Only 2 under 12/1 here - Cadore the one of interest - group entries. Labarinto to obvious value alternative.

535 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Zip Lock, 11/2 La Kalam, 13/2 Safwaan, 10/1 Maid To Dream, 12/1 Boldly Go, 14/1 Hippique, Room For A View, Sunset Kitty, 16/1 Chris´s Ridge, 25/1 Clear Praise, Sonnellino, Supatov, 50/1 Wet Feet,

DIOMED VERDICT: Zip Lock has obvious claims but LA KALAM will be suited by the drop back to 7f and has bagged the best draw.

A few defectors in this maiden. Zip lock the obvious starting point for Richard Hughes with a good 2nd at Lingfield latest.
Only 3 under 14/1 and odds on at present.

700 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Astral Flower, Wulfrida, 6/1 Sarbola, 7/1 Miss Kingwood, Sophies Trophy, 10/1 Treacle Tart, 14/1 Annuity, 25/1 Charpoy Cobra, Epsom Girl, 33/1 Alhudhud, Justazippy, 100/1 Les Andelys.

DIOMED VERDICT: The capable ASTRAL FLOWER will handle conditions and is worth another chance.