These one time outers having only their 2nd run are 50/50 whether they run well or bomb out.
This leaves the US Open and I would consider trading Wozniacki.
*****ONE A DAY - No bet today for me . I cannot trust maidens , especially 2 year olds, to replicate form while they are still on a learning curve. The Euro qualifiers tomorrow offer a wealth of betting opportunities. Wozniacki may be of interest for traders only in order to nail an equivalent 1.17 payout*****
Redundant day yesterday as I had to attend a funeral at a time when the betting markets were forming so I was unable to note betting prices, non runners or market movers.
The one bet that didn't need market consulation was Syrianska v Osters where over 1.5 goals came in with a home win 3-0.
No football of interest today.
TENNIS
730pm -
Wozniacki v Sharapova - no 1.02 Woz today. She has been in sparkling form and this is a sumptuous encounter. I suspect at 1.94 the Woz price is tradeable and should trade below that 1.94 at some stage in the match.I would not back the price as an out and out bet, but would only back it as a trading bet.With the international break football wise leaving poor match choices and little betting, and the US Open entering the business end, my practice of set betting the big guns in early rounds inevitably ends. Add to that the inevitable poor Monday race cards and we have ourselves a difficult day ahead.
220 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Calypso Magic, 3/1 Pearl Arch, Tasfeya, 10/1 Bosambo, 14/1 Silk Bounty, Somerset Island, Uncle Bryn, 20/1 Chagal, Sangar, 66/1 Dreamweaving, 100/1 Geordie Joe, Geronimo Chief.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The standard set by Calypso Magic is not an insuperable one and the Group entered PEARL ARCH can improve past him and continue the fine run of Brian Meehan's juveniles. |
Only 3 under 14/1 in the betting makes this a race of interest, bar the fact it is a late season 2 year old maiden. Pearl Arch is the big market mover at 8/11 and is expected to improve considerably for a non too spectacular first run.Calypso Magic is perhaps the obvious place choice at 3/1 with form of 622 but that last 2nd came when priced at 1/3
4 debutants in this race, the most interesting of which is Tasfeya for Mark Johnston.
250 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tarooq, 9/4 Apache Warrior, 6/1 No Rain, Wild Geese, 12/1 Honest Buck, 14/1 Original Dancer, 20/1 Janie´s Encore, 33/1 Cotton King, 50/1 I Spy Baileys, 66/1 Fight For You, 100/1 Colamandis, Rukhsana, Talent Scout, The Chester Giant.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Not much strength in depth and TAROOQ can make it third time lucky. |
Only 5 under 20/1 and 6 under 40/1 in this big field maiden. Tarooq is another with 2 2nd places. Apache Warrior is the favourite, a close 2nd to Al Muthanaa on debut augurs well.
410 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Isobar, 5/2 Chasse Coeur, 7/2 Tigress Hill, 10/1 Jewellery, 12/1 Prickles.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ISOBAR improved for the longer trip at Folkestone and he looks well worth another chance, with Chasse Coeur preferred of the others. |
2 places is a problem here but Fallon and Cumani can be a good combo - odds on at present this Isobar.
530 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Am I Blue, 6/1 Honourable Dreamer, 13/2 Royial, 10/1 Kavegirl, Three Boars, 14/1 Roughing It, You Can Of Course, 25/1 Hollandia.
| DIOMED VERDICT: AM I BLUE is not easily opposed after winning so easily at Hereford. |
Am I blue a price gapper in an 8 runner race ( 3 places) - -good old fashioned monster gamble last week came good -will the horse repeat the dose today - have we missed the boat? Last race was very definitely the day for the gamble, and I am concerned that that 1st was the only decent bit of form from the horse.
SHORTLIST
I am afraid it is a poor day and although I missed giving a one a day yesterday, I should not feel obliged to give a bet today purely for the sake of it. There are Euro qualifiers tomorrow that will bring us a multitude of bets.
730pm -
Wozniacki v Sharapova - 1.94 for Wozniacki I am sure will trade lower in running as she has been imperious thus far and though this is a marked step up in class, she has the athletisism to take the battle to Sharapova. A trade trading opportunity I think. Likely she will go off lower at 1.9.220 NEWCASTLE - the problem I have today is trusting 2 year olds who are still learning. Pearl Arch is the one being backed but 8th off 11 on debut hardly screams out to pile in at odds on. Calypso Magic has 2 2nd places to his name and that is a positive, although he was beaten at 1/3 last time ( albeit by only 1/2 length)
1.16 Pearl Arch and 1.44 Calypso Magic.
If we were going purely by the betting markets, then Pearl Arch is rock solid.
250 NEWCASTLE - another maiden race and 2 horses the market believes will dominate in once raced Apache Warrior and Tarooq. Apache was a big priced 2nd to Al Muthanaa - how do we know the horse will repeat that form again on only his 2nd run ever ?
Tarooq has 2 2nd places and is pretty much joint fav. As with these joint fav races generally, we have to assume that both horses will place.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Whilst the above maidens are likely to be competitive, I am not taken with place backing them. 220 Newcastle- Were you to follow the market, then Pearl Arch is the place only chance of the day
Positives
- one of only 4 under 25/1 in the betting. Probability wise has a good chance of placing in the front 3 if betting market accurate
- Meehan yard is strong
- travelled a long way for this race
- Brian Meehan´s juveniles often improve markedly for their first run and the Group entered PEARL ARCH, a rare Newcastle runner for the Manton trainer, is clearly considered capable of much better than he showed on soft ground on his debut and can continue the good run of the yard´s 2yos.
- once raced 2 year olds can be very unpredictable and inexperienced.
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