23/9

Jumps starts in ernest as we see Ruby Walsh on your side of the Irish Sea. Perth sees soft ground so is left alone. The best bet of the day from a probability perspective would be the 310 Fontwell and Synthe Davis at 1.09 to place. ( 5 horse race, 2 horses at 66/1 and 100/1 leave 3 for 2 places - 3rd horse is 14/1 debutant and fly in the ointment) Spent is the obvious one to the favourite at a better place only price.Not run since 4th May.
As I wrote below, I would prefer Romania under 17 at 1.09 half time than a novice hurdler.
All jumps choices of course need to complete the course.

*****ONE A DAY - No Betfair bets today. If you can find a goals bet for Romania under 17's then I would recommend that, or a chance , if you have a bookie account , with halftime/fulltime Romania/Romania under 17 or Halftime Romania under 17.
We are simply betting on the Romanian under 17's scoring a goal in 40 minutes ( 80 minute game) against a side who conceded 23 in their last 2)*****



Right choice yesterday as yet another 2 year old floundered , probably due to the change to Kempton's unique all weather surface? Imagine that Florestan Match was my one a day!! A head 4th and more curses! Value bet Latin lashes won that race. FC Copenhagen was the bet of the year. 1.01 with Bet365 and 1.09 ( for limited amounts ) with Betfair, but, hey, that is paying out 9 times more than Bet365!!!

2pm - Belarus U17 v Kazakhstan U17 - 1.36 home - 2-0 to Belarus in 2010 is most recent head to head.2 late goals 71st and 76th minute hints that the Kazak's may keep things tight yet eventually capitulate.
2pm - Chimia Brazi v FC Brasov - 1.36 away - Romanian Cup match. - Division 2 A v top flight. Brasov in their league have only won 2 of 12 away from home. This could be one for the "ITV cameras" -not for me this one
2pm - Romania U17 v Liechtenstein U17 - 1.04 - Andorra were easily spanked yesterday and if there is a goals market for this match, it will be worth considering to increase the match odds. Liechtenstein have lost 11 and drawn 1 of their last 12 matches. In their last 2 matches, they have conceded 23 goals. No, that's not a typo!! If only the over 2.5 goal market on Betfair was liquid. Goals market at Bet365 starts at over/under 4.5 goals.

630pm - Gaz Metan Craiova v Steaua Bucharest - 1.49 away - Division 2B v Division 1 - Steaua not in the best of form at the moment.


240 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Pepe Simo, 7/4 Harry Tricker, 12/1 Quedillac, 14/1 Pagan Sword, 20/1 Haka Dancer, 50/1 Bold Pioneer.

DIOMED VERDICT: PEPE SIMO is given the verdict ahead of Harry Tricker. Ruby returns to mainland Britain for his paymaster Paul Nicholls and they are always a betting proposition . Pepe Simo is a chase debutant, and there are only 2 places - mistakes will be punished. Only 3 under 16/1 hopefully are the ones to focus on for 3 places. 310 FONTWELL BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Synthe Davis, 3/1 Spent, 14/1 Kasban, 25/1 Bright Decision, 33/1 Quatuor Collonges. DIOMED VERDICT: SYNTHE DAVIS has a golden opportunity to win again. Only 3 under 50/1 and only 2 under 16/1 - Synthe Davis obvious here and Spent the value alternative. Clear round as ever!! 320 PERTH BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Frontier Dancer, 5/2 Baaher, 9/2 Steel Magnate, 16/1 Silver Palm, 100/1 Ellandshe. DIOMED VERDICT: Very useful hurdle recruit FRONTIER DANCER can make a successful switch to fences. 3 horses here for the 2 places with Silver Palm a non runner and Ellandshe an original 100/1 shot. 400 PONTEFRACT BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 High Office, 4/1 Submariner, 11/2 Fastnet Storm, 13/2 Sirvino, 15/2 Licence To Till, 11/1 Porgy, 16/1 Just Lille, Take It To The Max. DIOMED VERDICT: Preference is for SUBMARINER, who has dropped back down to a good mark, ran well in a hot race on Saturday and has Fallon up now. Submariner has the eyecatching Fallon/Johnston partnership. This one has been backed, and is all red ( indicating the price is shortening) at the Racing Post betting site. 8 runners and 3 places, it must be said that the betting indicates a tight handicap in prospect - 430 PONTEFRACT BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Tiger Webb, 9/4 Oversteer, 9/2 My Little Star, 8/1 Pink Diva, 28/1 Castlemorris King, William Wainwright, 40/1 Sam Nombulist. DIOMED VERDICT: Ready preference is for TIGER WEBB, who has quite useful form to his name. A pity it is 7 runners and thus 2 places here, Oversteer is the clear market fancy here into 13/8, 6/4 in places and all red , really standing out in the betting . This 7 runners 2 year old maiden sees only 4 under 33/1 and hopefully the 2 places will come from these. The main protagonist is Tiger Webb with 2 2nds to his name ( as did yesterday's failed 2 year old!!!) Dare we trust 2 year olds? The money horse is clearly Oversteer. 600 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Expose, 7/2 Tenby Lady, 13/2 Brave Battle, 8/1 Darwin Star, 17/2 Zalano, 9/1 Amun Ra, 14/1 Vetvey, 20/1 Scoglio, 28/1 River Avon, 33/1 Juarla, 100/1 Champagne Princess. DIOMED VERDICT: EXPOSE showed plenty of promise when third at Newbury last week and has strong claims switched to Polytrack. Expose sees Richard Hughes ride for Noseda. A one time outer 2 year old, he has really been battered in to 4/9 here, but can we trust 2 year olds, especially, like yesterday, when making an all weather debut? 630 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Valerius Maximus, 4/1 L´Astre De Choisir, Looksmart, 9/2 Karate, 11/2 Celestyna, Snow Ridge, 20/1 Brian Sprout, 40/1 Miss Nimbus, 50/1 Belles Boudier, 66/1 Commercial. DIOMED VERDICT: KARATE could build significantly on his debut second at Haydock and gets a tentative vote in a tight maiden. Soft ground 2nd for Fanning/Johnston's Karate . Could prove better for better ground. Another 2 year old in a sprint maiden on the all weather.3/1, 3/1, 4/1, 4/1, 6/1 the first 5 in the betting - a tight old maiden. SHORTLIST 2pm - Romania U17 v Liechtenstein U17 - 1.04 - Romania play a team that has conceded 23 in their last 2 matches ( only slightly better than my old Sunday League side) Goals should be the order of the day today but the market with Betfair shows over 2.5 goals at 1.03 ( i.e. totally unnatural odds as the market is very illiquid) www.bet365.com shows 1.02 for Romania . ASian handicap starts at +4.5 with odds of 1.5. Goals bet starts at over/under 5.5 with Bet365 and over 5.5 goals is 1.45 !! Halftime Romania winning is 1.09 1.09 halftime/fulltime All with www.bet365.com. 240 FONTWELL - it is tempting to throw all discipline out of the window and wade in with Walsh/Nicholls Pepe Simo but this is 2 places and a beginner's chase. 1.2 to place and we will get a run for our money but how do we know how the horse will take to the bigger fences on first run since April 2010 . 310 FONTWELL - Synthe Davis looks obvious here at an obvious 1.09 to place ( I must say I would prefer Romania Half time at 1.09 rather than a novice hurdler) Value bet seems to be Spent here. There are 3 runners here to focus on with 2 at 66/1 and 100/1 dismissed. The 3rd runner ( and the obstacles of course) is the fly in the ointment. He is a debutant over hurdles and could be anything. 430 PONTEFRACT - Oversteer is the market fancy here, all red and backed to a low of 6/4 - uninspiring debut - connections obviously fancy this maiden 2 year old today. 600 WOLVES Extreme confidence in the market for Expose , a one time out maiden making a debut on the all weather today. 1.12 to place and the only one under evens by a country mile in the place market. Do we make exceptions for the odd 2 year old or should we, with discipline, know that, like yesterday, they throw in howlers as, by nature, they are still learning. Positives ? - extreme market confidence - Richard Hughes in the saddle - price gap 4/9 - - - - 8/1 at time of writing. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 2pm - Romania U17 v Liechtenstein U17 - 1.04 - now down to 1.01 in the match odds in an illiquid market. Going to www.bet365.com and the best I can salvage here would be halftime Romania at 1.09. If there was anywhere you could get an over2.5 or over 3.5 goal bet, then it might be worth it. Liechtenstein, I will remind you, conceded 23 in their last 2 matches 310 FONTWELL - should be 3 runners for 2 places, one of those 3 is a debutant over hurdles. Best left to Synthe Davis therefore with a clear round ? 1.09 to place. Value in Spent perhaps? 600 WOLVES -Expose is another conundrum 2 year old - we saw yesterday and with Clear Reason that even maidens with solid consistent form somehow suddenly finish out of the places ( head 4th yesterday - YIKES!!) Expose would only be selected because he is the market fancy 4/9 - - - -- 8/1 and 1.12 to place and clearly favourite in the place market. BUT this 2 ye thar old has only had one run and although he has Richard Hughes in the saddle, still has L plates on and may not take to the all weather. -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94