back-lay-trade-horses-football: 9/09

Nathaniel is one of those conundrum 2 year olds. One run only, solid in the place market but I will be vilified if he does not place given I have highlighted 6 debutants and 5 other one time outers in opposition. Who is right? the market or the negatives?
I just have a feeling this evening that Spanish senoritas will beat New Zealand ladies this evening. 1.39 is the kind of price that allows trading.
Elsewhere, the 745 Kempton is the best race of the day from a probability perspective, and Nadal looks to have the measure of Verdasco with 10-0 head to heads.

So who has the greater chance of coming off today? Well, it would seem, to these eyes, that the evening offers the safest race in the 745 Kempton. As you know by now, though, I need to be able to view the market nearer the off as a lot can change in the intervening 7 hours.

*****ONE A DAY - UPDATE at 720pm in time for 745pm will include further information on Nadal and Spain Under 17 Women*****

I hope these will be worth the wait, and still wonder, in the meantime, whether this Nathaniel is as strong as the place market makers think. Speak again at 720pm.

Yet again I let a good horse slip by in Enabling, too caught up in the negatives rather than the positives. He won
I hope you got the message in time yesterday. Germany women under 17's scored, erm, 9 goals in the first half allowing a troublefree over 2.5 goals with reasonable liquidity.
As to Caroline Wozniacki, well she won in 2 straight sets again. The 2.46 I mentioned yesterday for her to win, is now down to 2.24 in response to that victory - the simplicity of trading!!
I just want to share with you the concept of trading, or selling your bet off early as it is also known.

Soccer > Germany U17 (W) v South Africa U17 (W) : Over/Under 2.5 goals

Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection	Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Over 2.5 Goals	1.13	200.00	Back	08-Sep-10 20:47	26.00
Over 2.5 Goals	1.03	219.42	Lay	08-Sep-10 21:20	-6.58
*Average odds: On Off				Back subtotal:	26.00
				Lay subtotal:	-6.58
				Market subtotal:	19.42
				Commission @ 4.69%:	0.91
				Net Market Total:	18.51

I sold my Germany bet off very early at 2-0 scoreline and made around a 1.09 profit with stakes secured. I was not to know Germans would score 9 by halftime ( d'oh!!)

I mentioned the set betting yesterday for Caroline Wozniacki. It was at an impractical hour, but I managed to trade

Tennis > Wozniacki v Cibulkova : Set Betting

Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection	Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
C Wozniacki 2 - 0	1.35	200.00	Back	08-Sep-10 23:49	70.00
C Wozniacki 2 - 0	1.13	238.94	Lay	09-Sep-10 00:57	-31.06
*Average odds: On Off				Back subtotal:	70.00
				Lay subtotal:	-31.06
				Market subtotal:	38.94
				Commission @ 4.7%:	1.83
				Net Market Total:	37.11

I traded out after Caroline won the first set. A profit ( if this was a bet) of £67 was compromised by getting out mid match incase Cibulkova somehow managed to win the 2nd set. Selling the bet off early cost me £31 but my exposure after that was nil.
So , in answer to some subscriber's queries, this is what I mean when I mention trading rather than traditional betting, and whenever I mention a football match is in running, it is because we have this option to sell our bet off early if it is going well.

FOOTBALL
9pm - New Zealand U17 (W) v Spain U17 (W) - 1.43 away - this is being held in Trinidad and Tobago. Will the Spanish senoritas play like the men's first team? If so this 1.43 is enticing. Goals seem to be the call with the ladies such is the keystone cops defending I witnessed yesterday, so a neutral goals bet is probably ideal.
1.11 only for over 1.5 goals is reasonable but the market is suffering some 14 hours prior to kick off. Spain beat Japan 4-1 and New Zealand lost 2-1 to Venezuela. Spain, then, could be tradeable here at 1.43 to lay off if they lead at any stage.

TENNIS
7pm - Wawrinka v Youzhny - this match is only mentioned as Wawrinka has been playing with a strapped thigh since his match with Murray. This may make the match tradeable if we oppose Wawrinka initially or back Youzhny initially and hope that thigh is troublesome?

In their last 3 encounters there have been 4 sets which finished either 7-5 or 7-6 which makes this a tight match. 2-2 in head to heads too. I only oppose Wawrinka from a trading angle and hope his price rises at some stage.
To further complicate matters, with the prospect of an ultra tight match, the pre match favourite can be laid to trade in the hope this tightness manifests on the court and his price rises.

1am - Nadal v Verdasco - 1.09 - Federer managed to win in straight sets yesterday despite being priced at 1.24. Trust Nadal?
Straight sets in their last 3 but these were only first to 2 sets. In the Ozzie Open, it went to 5 sets.
Nadal is 10-0 in head to heads so a straight win bet the call ?

200 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Nathaniel, 5/1 Genius Beast, 7/1 Galiando, Picture Editor, 10/1 Musnad, 14/1 Audacious, 16/1 Silverware, 20/1 Lejaam, 25/1 Smart George, Tarantella Lady, 50/1 Indian Jack, Oasis Storm, Spartan King, 200/1 Henry Chettle, Lady Chloe, Tiger´s Pride,

DIOMED VERDICT: It will take a smart effort to lower the colours of NATHANIEL following his close second at Newmarket on his debut.

Nathaniel is odds on based upon one run only in this big field maiden chock full of likely improvers and debutants.
6 debutants - could be anything
6 one time outers - open to improvement as they learn.
Very positive analysis of last race
Nathaniel, closely related to Playful Act and Percussionist, looks sure to enhance the family´s reputation. If it hadn´t been for the winner, he´d have been a five-length Newmarket maiden winner and grabbing the headlines himself. He is undoubtedly a smart prospect and, on breeding, looks sure to improve as he matures from this very pleasing debut.

1.17 to place is an amazingly low price in this type of maiden. Next best is 2.1 to place.

215 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dux Scholar, 2/1 Jadhwah, 13/2 Another Laugh, 9/1 Go, 14/1 Plea, Young Sahib, 20/1 Lady Excellentia, 25/1 Holy Mackerel, 40/1 Wet Your Whistle, 66/1 Looney Les.

DIOMED VERDICT: Jadhwah is one to note closely in the betting but DUX SCHOLAR sets a fairly high standard.

Progressive form for Dux scholar 42 is reasonable in another maiden ( one of those days where we either place faith in maidens or we don't)
Head 2nd in 5 runner novices stakes last time.
Jadhwah is a debutant and has the impressive Ted Durcan onboard.
Only 4 horses under 16/1

310 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Wootton Bassett, 5/1 Galtymore Lad, 8/1 Sir Reginald, 10/1 Forjatt, 12/1 Murbeh, Premier Clarets, 14/1 Imperialistic Diva, 16/1 Slim Shadey, 20/1 Chilworth Lad, Madany, 25/1 Chiswick Bey, Move In Time, 33/1 Alaskan Spirit, Bahceli, 50/1 Button Moon, El Viento, Elkmait, Nasharra, Riverdale, 66/1 Cocohatchee, Geesala, Opera Dancer.

DIOMED VERDICT: Another bumper pay day on the way for WOOTTON BASSETT, who can confirm York superiority over Galtymore Lad.

I mentioned Wootton Bassett last time he ran and he obliged.21 runners -big competitive high class field the obvious negatives. Wootton is 13/8. Forjatt is 5/1 now and 2nd fav, being backed ( the Dettori factor?)

Analysis of last race
"WOOTTON BASSETT had a lot going for him and was backed as though defeat was unthinkable. Nicely drawn in 15, his Doncaster win had been boosted by the subsequent victory of runner-up Forjatt, and he showed himself to possess both speed and stamina, running on strongly inside the final furlong to assert from the runner-up. He´s thought quite a bit of and will reportedly take his chance at Group level before long (entered in the Mill Reef and Middle Park), but connections are inclined to chase another big pot first, with the valuable sales race at Doncaster´s St Leger meeting next on the agenda."

All going as planned today.

335 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Rare Tern, 9/2 Dutiful, 6/1 Bin Shamardal, Plutocraft, 8/1 My Sister, 10/1 Blue Lyric, 12/1 Treasure Way, 16/1 Ajool, Whiepa Snappa, 25/1 Byrd In Hand, 33/1 Tell Halaf.

DIOMED VERDICT: RARE TERN takes the eye as a progressive sort conceding weight to inferior rivals.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to get away TRUE TO FORM, who hacked up at Lingfield last week

True to Form is a price gapper here 8/13 - - - - 6/1 for this apprentice handicap.
Yes, we know already the niggle!
" He could well build up a sequence before the handicapper gets hold of him, but apparently may be off to the Sales in October."
8 runners and 3 places is good. Winner on the all weather last time out. Gelding seems to have brought about a change in fortunes.

615 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Custom House, 7/2 Buckland, 8/1 Allumeuse, Male Model, 12/1 Experimentalist, Malacca Straits, Muhandis, 14/1 Alshazah, 20/1 Labore, 33/1 Al Furat, 100/1 Reach Out, Steely.

DIOMED VERDICT: CUSTOM HOUSE can put his experience to good use

Front 2 to dominate in this debutant laden race?
Buckland now 4/5

645 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Dimension, Mujrayaat, 9/2 Double Dealer, 6/1 Tazahum, 8/1 Glanusk, 10/1 Cross The Creek, 12/1 Kuala Limper, Proenza, 16/1 Come On The Irons, 20/1 L´Astre De Choisir, 33/1 Touch Of Red.

DIOMED VERDICT: MUJRAYAAT is preferred to well-bred newcomer Dimension

In yet another maiden, Mujrayaat is now 7/4 and all red, being backed already.

745 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Hokoumah, 5/2 Silver Ocean, 7/2 State Of Mind, 7/1 Countess Ellen, 14/1 Three Sparrows, 33/1 Lisselton Cross, Senor Tibor, 66/1 Coedmor Boy,

DIOMED VERDICT: There was a lot to like about the C&D debut effort of Silver Ocean and he looks the danger to Godolphin's HOKOUMAH who sets the standard.