450 Folkstone for me and Nerves of Steel would have been 3rd in Sentosa's race last time but for being hampered and represents value here but Frank Spencer onboard. Modun is the debutant and Sentosa was a 12/1 2nd last time out to Longliner ( where Nerves of Steel was the better fancied 4/1)
In the football, Belarus look rock solid but the betting market believes the same. We have cup games this evening and team news is vital.
Real Madrid will either win or draw at home ( not lose under Mourinho at home) so we have a 50/50 chance
***** 9pm- Real Madrid v espanyol. Back Real Madrid at 1.18****
Concerns? Profligacy infront of goal so far and relatively poor performance against Real Sociedad away where Mourinho had a huge slice of luck. But Real Madrid are ahead of Barca , and with Messi likely out for a few weeks, they must win their home matches.
They win by 1 but that's the difference between an over 1.5 goal bet and a win bet.
I must admit I gave myself a pat on the back yesterday as far as the Steaua Bucharest v Astra Ploiesti was concerned. Steaua scored 1st and I just had the feeling that Astra were going to score as my analysis pointed to the potential of yet another draw.
The 71st minute saw the equaliser from Astra. Those with faith in Astra's draw potential could have laid a heavily odds on Steaua at 1.15 with minimum downside and huge upside.
The value of good research and finding patterns and sequences.
The under 17's demolished their respective opponents and the hot Porto winning streak continued apace. I actually got involved in this match after watching early Porto dominance and as many as 7 corners in quick succession in the first half.
I was rewarded with an early own goal from a corner. So another lesson - you can make your decision based on what you see in running.
For the sake of not missing any bets which are good but too illiquid on Betfair, do consider joining www.bet365.com. It is , for me, the best site for football bets and markets. Sometimes they offer halftime/fulltime and goals bets where Betfair doesn't.
I am glad I swerved the 2 probability bets yesterday. One race was too competitive and the other was too bad - a class 6 claimer. Sometimes the decision not to be is as good as a decision to bet!!
2pm - Belarus U17 v Liechtenstein U17 - 1.09 home - last met 2007 and 5-0 to Belarus. Liechtenstein are like Andorra , Faroes, San Marino and instinctually opposed. 1.10 over 2.5 goals at bet365. Very illiquid betting market on Betfair
2pm - Dolcan Zabki v Wisla Krakow - 1.46 away - Polish Cup - in running - +1 to +1.5 asian handicap hints at a tight match. Home side have lost 6 and drawn 1 in their last 7 in Division 2.
Wislaw have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 7 in Division 1. Last 4 games have been over 2.5 goals for Wisla and they have scored twice on 3 occasions in those matches.
Dolcan have not win at home in their last 6 - LLLLDD
2pm - Romania U17 v Kazakhstan U17 - 1.25 home - Kazak recent form LLDLLLLLLLL and Romanian recent form is DDDWWDWDWWWW - what a contrast and what relatively good odds ( I suppose they account for 3 recent draws on the trot.
DWWDDWWW for Romania at home
LDLLLLWLLLWL for Kazaks away from home. Wins against Wales and San Marino.
230pm -Rudar 47 v Hajduk Split - 1.04 with bet365 so goals should be an option here in this Croatian Cup match.
3pm - Poprad v Banska Bystrica - 1.25 away - Slovakian Cup - Division 3 v Division 1 and apart from that , the Slovak leagues are a mystery for me.
4pm - ACU Arad v CFR Cluj - 1.46 away - Romania liga 2 seria B v Top flight.
7pm - Flevo Boys v Vitesse - 1.19 away ( 1.20 with bet365 and more liquidity with them) - Holland TopKlasse v Division 1 - Dutch Cup - no head to heads. Vitesse have lost 4 of their last 5 division 1 games, but fair dos, they did play Ajax, Twente, Heerenveen and Feyenoord!
Vitesse a difficult team to weigh up.
7pm - Hoffenheim v B Munich - missing Robben? Stuttering start for Bayern. German league match and again superb research by me at the weekend hinted that Koln, who kept Bayern out in 3 previous head to heads, could do so again, and they did with another 0-0.
This is becoming must win territory for Bayern who must be missing a player of Robben's undoubted influence.
2-1 1-1 ( away ), 2-2 ( away) 2-1 Bayern in 4 recent head to heads. Away to Hoffenheim, they keep score drawing. Over evens away from home hints that this is a toughie.
Trust Bayern to pick a side who have just had a 5 game winning streak ended by a draw away to Kaiserslautern.
In their last 3 league games, Bayern have failed to score. 0-0, 0-0, 2-0 loss to Kaiserslautern.
Will this goal drought end today? These sequences do end eventually but in an away match where the asian handicap starts at +0.5? I'm not so sure.
Maybe the fact this is becoming a must win for Bayern could be the clincher this evening?
7pm - Waalwijk v Almere - 1.3 home -2 division 2 sides in the Dutch Cup and Almere (previously Omniworld)have lost their last 5 on the trot and 7 of their last 8.Waalwijk are unbeaten so far this Division 2 season.DWDDWD.
DDW at home so far this season. Waalwijk look like they were relegated from the top flight last season.
2-0, 1-0, 12-1 away losses so far for Almere.
First teams playing in this cup match should see a home victory, or at least not defeat. Not in running.
745pm - Birmingham v MK Dons - 1.48 home - 3-2 away Brum win in a friendly in August. Tonight's match has that mystery about it too. Who will McLeish pick? 3-2 win v Rochdale at home in last round hints at changes in the Brum side.MK Dons knocked out Blackpool last round - were Blackpool's minds elsewhere perhaps or does this win merit consideration given Blackpool's recent efforts?
745pm - Brentford v Everton - 1.51 away - team news vital again.3 defeats and 2 draws so far this season for Everton and if I was Moyes I'd get rid of this Cup run sharpish and concentrate on the Premiership.
745pm - Emmen v Heerenveen - 1.35 away - Division 2 v topflight and these 2 teams' games are usually dominated by goals. 1.37 over 2.5 goals is tempting but is not tradeable and I always prefer tradeable goals bets especially if an early goal has been scored or it is, say, 2-0 at halftime.
745pm - Rangers v Dunfermline - 1.22 home - these 2 last met in 2007. If Rangers are serious about this, they should win. Would want to see Kenny Miller playing as he is in very good goalscoring form. 4 wins away for Dunfermline already this season in Division 1 is good and they could put up a stern test for Rangers who are 100% this Premiership season. Again team news important, but would have to side with the home team here if they take this game seriously. +2 to +2.5 asian handicaps for Rangers .
9pm - Real Madrid v Espanyol - 1.18 home - League match and Real will not lose at home under Mourinho if the last 8 year's of home league form is anything to go by. 3-0, 2-0, 2-0 in 2010 and 2009 head to heads - Espanyol failing to score and Real scoring 7.
0-0, 1-0 and 1-2(win) are hardly inspiring at all and in the last match, Sociedad had golden opportunities to score and scare Real.
Likely to struggle again tonight? 1.18 could be like CSKA last night where we wait a while for the breakthrough, although the scoring of 6 in last 2 head to heads to no reply ( albeit under new management) is good evidence.
+2 to +2.5 asian handicaps same as Rangers tonight. Which of these 2 R's is the most trustworthy at similar prices and with similar market expectations.
200 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Liszt, 9/4 Always Dixie, 7/1 Privy Speech, 12/1 Maybeme, 14/1 Pedasus, 16/1 Miss Wendy, 25/1 Jolly Roger, 66/1 Without Equal, 100/1 Both Ends Burning, Just Nod.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A race that revolves around LISZT who is taking a huge drop in class and has Paul Hanagan booked. Always Dixie is clearly the main danger. |
Fanning/Johnston's Always Dixie of Liszt, in selling company after a previous run in class 3.
230 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Whitstable Native, 2/1 Moral Issue, 9/2 Shesastar, 8/1 Kinlochrannoch, 10/1 Ellikan, 16/1 Bonjour Bongee, 33/1 Gunalt Joy, Mujapiste, 66/1 Red Snapper, 100/1 Mrs G.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Both Whitstable Native and Shesastar are potential improvers, but MORAL ISSUE may be able to defy top weight. |
The last time I ventured into 5 furlong maiden territory, it was with Clear Reason I think, who did not place, so the risks are there. Only 5 under 33/1 though makes this interesting.
Moral Issue has 2 consecutive 2nds in maiden company and is a logical choice against one time only Whitstable.
330 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tax Free, 2/1 Captain Dunne, 6/1 Anglezarke, 8/1 Our Jonathan, 14/1 Five Star Junior, Look Busy, 20/1 Tangerine Trees, 66/1 Pawan.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The reliable CAPTAIN DUNNE can repeat last year's win in this race. |
8 runners and 3 places makes this an interesting race. There are perhaps 3 who we can hopefully discount, 2 are 20/1 and 25/1 and one is 100/1.
This hopefully leaves 5 horses and 3 places and Tax Free is now odds on. 13 - 5-3-2 is progressive form. Captain Dunne is close 2nd favourite.
410 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Mutadarrej, 6/4 Theologist, 7/1 Unleashed, 14/1 Great Bounder, 16/1 Its Danny Boy, 33/1 Little Justice, Top Tide, 50/1 Cilrhiwviv, Winbury.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MUTADARREJ will be a tough nut to crack in this company now sent over a longer trip. |
3 only under 16/1 in the betting and Muta has the Champ onboard and his record for me in one a days is appalling.
Muta up in distance. Theo has not had a run since April and Unleashed yet to prove his worth over hurdles but these are the 3 the market tells us to focus on.
Extended 2 mile 6 furlong maiden hurdle. Plenty can go wrong but I must start having faith in jumps races rather than keep avoiding them all the time.
Likely that this will not finish 1-2-3 as per the market, so who will falter?
440 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Alaska River, 4/1 Thomas Bell, 5/1 La Milanaise, 8/1 Panache, 14/1 Logan Rock.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ALASKA RIVER can make it third-time lucky with McCoy taking over this time. |
No obstacles and Alaska River 3-2 in bumpers but to add extra spice, there's 3 debutants.
450 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Sentosa, 2/1 Modun, 4/1 Nerves Of Steel, 15/2 Mashatu, 11/1 Silent Oasis, 16/1 Vezere, 40/1 You Mug, 50/1 Christophers Quest, Wingate Street.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A chance is taken on Sir Michael Stoute's well-bred gelding MODUN. |
Original 4th fav a non runner which should open things up to the front 3, of whom Sentosa is interesting.
There are only 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 33/1 - a very interesting probability race despite being a maiden race.
SHORTLIST
2pm - Belarus U17 v Liechtenstein U17 - 1.09 home - if we take our cues from yesterday's demolition jobs, then the Belarussian nippers should do the business.
2pm - Romania U17 v Kazakhstan U17 - 1.25 home - this is the riskier of the 2 under 17 matches but this is the Kazak form (L =loss and D =Draw, W = Win) LLDLLLLLLLL while Romanian's is DDDWWDWDWWWW - -priced today to end that 3 match draw sequence and have beaten teams from countries with a far better footballing pedigree than Kazakhstan.
7pm - Hoffenheim v B Munich - highly speculative back of BAyern at 2.06 in the hope they score/lead at some stage in this match? Not scored in 3 matches so far this League season. 2-0 v Roma a sign of a change in fortune?
FOLLOWING MATCHES OF INTEREST BUT REQUIRE TEAM NEWS
745pm - Birmingham v MK Dons - 1.48 home
745pm - Brentford v Everton - 1.51 away
745pm - Rangers v Dunfermline - 1.22 home - just want to see a strong Rangers side. Home advantage should ensure this ?
9pm - Real Madrid v Espanyol - 1.18 home
-Mourinho does not lose in the league at home
-3-0 , 3-0, 2-0 in last 3 head to heads ( albeit of course different management) shows clear Real Madrid dominance.
-Espanyol lost 4-0 to Villareal in sole away match.
BUT
-poor start to season despite 2 wins and a draw - 3 goals only scored Di Maria, Ronaldo and Carvalho the goalscorers.
This is a match where there should be one of 2 results - a home win or a draw.
Safety -over 1.5 goals but that did not come in for CSKA yesterday at exactly the same price. It is 1.18 too.
200 BEVERLEY - Always Dixie or huge-drop-in-class Liszt? Fanning Johnston for me at a push - 1.34 to place tells us this is is a class 5 seller but Always won one last time out under Greg Fairley - course and distance winner , watch out for Liszt and big market mover Jolly Roger, a debutant and backed into 16/1
We saw yesterday how faith in the market can be negated by the poor quality of the race ( the class 6 claiming stakes race yesterday)
230 BEVERLEY - class 4 2 year old maiden not the ideal race type but the make up of the race is interesting. Only 5 under 40/1 should fight it out for 3 places and the key protagonists are 2/1 ( and currently drifting Whitstable native), 2/1 and shortening Moral Issue , and 3/1 Shesastar.
Moral Issue has a 3 lb claimer on board but 2 2nd places are reasonable efforts ( 6 furlongs and 5 furlongs) 1.29 to place in an illiquid market.
5 furlong 2 year old maidens are not my favourite races as Clear Reason showed.
330 BEVERLEY
Tax Free looks a decent place only prospect here in this 8 runner race for 3 places. Only 2 horses under 10/1 and 3 at 25/1 or bigger. 1.15 for Tax Free to place.
440 STRATFORD - needs market consultation nearer the off as 3 of the 5 runners are debutants and this is a bumper. Alaska River under McCoy has a good chance of finishing in the first 2 - at least there is no chance of a fall as this is a flat race.
1.19 to place
450 FOLKSTONE - very interesting market for this class 5 3 year old maiden.
Sentosa (11/10 and drifting at time of writing) , Modun (debutant - 7/4 and being backed) , Nerves of Steel 7/2 and backed, next best 12/1 then 33/1 bar the rest.
Sentosa and Modun are both around 1.16 to place with Nerves of Steel 1.4 to place.
The value bet is Nerves of steel if we assume the front 3 dominate. Modun is the unknown quantity being a debutant and we can only take our cues from the betting market for debutants.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
2pm - Belarus U17 v Liechtenstein U17 - 1.09 home - always a risk with under 17's but this should be comfortable. - not enough cah at Betfair. Bet365 go 1.083 and 1.10 for over 2.5 goals.
2pm - Romania U17 v Kazakhstan U17 - 1.25 home - 3 draws on the trot is the concern here . Ideally I would entertain this match if it was in running and tradeable.
745pm - Rangers v Dunfermline - 1.22 home 100% record and at home could mean that the support would insist upon a good performance.
9pm - Real Madrid v Espanyol - 1.18 home - Inter, under Mourinho, won all bar 4 at home last season. Expect this from real this season. Real won all home matches bar a 2-0 loss to Barca last season.
Real already this season are edging ahead thanks to the Hercules defeat of Barca. This makes all home matches must wins. And it is a case of win or draw tonight - 2 options.
230 BEVERLEY - Moral Issue being backed in this 5 horse and 3 place 2 year old maiden. Now dare we trust 2 year olds so late in this flat season after Clear Reason's fiasco in another 5 furlong maiden?
Already backed down to 1.28 to place. As we know to our cost tardiness over the minimum trip will be punished.
330 BEVERLEY - Tax free looks like a good candidate to place here.Straight 8 and 3 places but again this is 5 furlongs.
450 FOLKSTONE - 4 horse race for 3 places and Sentosa would probably be the pick against the debutant.
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