I am left with 3 irish races which all look good but I need assurances that the ground is soft and not heavy ( I cannot get these assurances at time of writing) This leaves Laaheb in the 410 Ascot, all red ( signalling he has been backed all morning) and 10/11 in this group 3, class 1.
***** ONE A DAY - Crvena would have been my choice today but the market is dead on Betfair. www.bet365.com offer 1.12. If the market livens up on Betfair, then anything above 1.12 is good*****
Soft, and heavy threatened ground at the Curragh, and a 2 the place group 3 race at Ascot are all that is left. If given a choice, I would have to side with Laaheb, but acknowledge that, like Makfi yesterday, he has some good group horses in opposition. Only 2 places means we have to be spot on.
Nice multiple and one a day scuppered. Even more frustrating as I said, in my analysis "1.18 over 1.5 goals is the safer bet. More speculative ( and potentially tradeable) over 3.5 goals at 2.32. Early Arsenal ( or WBA ) goals will see these odds reduce." - So why didn't I fecking pick it as a one a day? Always helps when you've got a goalkeeper and his white cane in goal. Again there were far better alternatives I could have chosen, such as White moonstone, Frankel, Celtic (at 3pm using time as the decision maker yesterday), and Porto who were standout.
What disappoints me is these are all avoidable.
1245 - Aberdeen v Rangers - 1.63 - same price as Barca yesterday when the latter were expected to have a tough match ( finished 3-1) . 1-0 and 0-0 to Aberdeen in head to heads at their place tell us why the odds are so high for an old firm side.
Recent collateral form could allow us to speculate on 1.63 Rangers ( maybe with a 0-0 cover)
| Dundee United | 3-1 | Aberdeen FC |
| Glasgow Rangers | 4-0 | Dundee United |
Not conclusive as Aberdeen were away and Rangers at home, but should give an idea regarding the shape of the teams.
1pm - Dinamo Kiev v Arsenal Kiev - 1.31 home - Dinamo have won the last 5 head to heads and at home scorelines have been 3-0 and 3-1 in 2010 and 2009 head to heads
WWDLW for Arsenal away this season is reasonable form.
WDWW with some European action for Dinamo at home this season.
Are the head to heads enough for us to back at 1.31. Only match odds available.
130pm - Breda v Willem II - 1.46 home - in running.
League 2010 and 2009 head to heads see 1-2 (away win), 4-0, 2-0(away loss) for Breda.
DWW so far for Breda at home.
Willem II have lost all matches this season . Away from home scorelines of 3-0, 3-0, 2-0 - all shut outs. 6 games so far for Willem II have been over 2.5 goals so 1.2 over 1.5 goals an option?
2pm - Liechtenstein U17 v Kazakhstan U17 - 1.21 - Liechtenstein have conceded 9, 12, 11 in their last 3 matches ( must have Almunia in goal wearing his big clown shoes ) so surely worthy of opposing here? But this kazak team were just mullered 6-2 by Belarus and have lost 11 and drawn 1 of their last 12.
This football match is unlikely to be stopping traffic this afternoon.
3pm - Cukaricki v Crvena Zvezda - 1.18 away - this looks like out of form home side v in form away side.
Cukaricki have lost their last 6 matches this season. Last 4 losses have been 2-0.2-0 and 1-0 losses at home this season. Cuckaricki have NOT EVEN scored this season.
1 draw and 5 wins for Crvena this season in stark contrast to Cukaricki.
3-1, 1-0 and 0-0 the 3 away matches for Crvena. Bar the 3-1, hint of difficulty away for Crvena.
Cukaricki will score eventually - we have seen the power of sequences lately ( alas with Zilina I noticed that the draw was the likely sequence but bet against this sequence continuing) but when?
4pm - Omonia v APOP/Kinyras - 1.18 home. Based really on the away side losing 11 of their last 12 matches.
Head to heads 3-1 away win and 1-0 home win for Omonia.
THis match is in running which is interesting.
3-0, 4-2, 4-0, 4-2 last 4 losses for APOP away from home.Only one recent home result for Omonia 1-0 . Continuing from last season scorelines at home of 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1. Slight cause for concern, but can we conclude that APOP are really in poor form both home and away CONSISTENTLY!
5pm - Anderlecht v KV Mechelen - 1.41 home - 4-1, 4-0, 0-0, 3-0 at home for Anderlecht this season. Won 5 and drawn 3 so far this season.
2-1, 2-1, 1-0 loss for Mechelen away from home. So they can score away from home.
2 wins each for these in last 4 head to heads - Anderlecht have won the most recent 2 head to heads 2-0.
In running
215 CURRAGH
Remember him? 1.03 in running and slipped and went through the railings as a one a day selection.
Return today under Johnny Murtagh and must have a good chance if all is well. Big field mind you but in his last run he blasted from the front.
315 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Chrysanthemum, 5/1 Katla, 11/2 Wild Wind, 6/1 Quiet Oasis, 8/1 Peahen, 10/1 Bible Belt, 12/1 Banimpire, Sonning Rose, 33/1 Juliet Capulet, 50/1 Hope Of An Angel, 100/1 Eirnin.
25/1 winner on debut and now group race price gapper? Take the hint? Wild Wind represents Ballydoyle.
335 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tastahil, 9/2 Free Agent, 5/1 Martyr, 11/2 Pompeyano, 10/1 Blizzard Blues, 12/1 Fictional Account, 25/1 Lady Hestia, 40/1 On Terms,
| DIOMED VERDICT: TASTAHIL will be very hard to beat if in the same form as when a good second in the Doncaster Cup last time, especially as this slower ground is if anything a plus for him. |
9 down to 7 runners and still 3 places. "very hard to beat " Tastahil is 1.4 to place.
The market , though, is tight, 2/1, 3/1 , 4/1, 4/1 for the first 4.
350 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hallie´s Comet, 7/2 Luisant, 5/1 Hujaylea, 6/1 Barack, 12/1 Excelerate, Worldly Wise, 14/1 Kitty Kiernan, 16/1 Ballivor, 20/1 Blaze Brightly, 25/1 Good Time Sue.
Weld/Smullen Hallie's Comet was a good winner last time out. Currently there are 4 horses under 14/1
410 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Laaheb, 5/2 Whispering Gallery, 11/2 Mikhail Glinka, 8/1 Monitor Closely, 16/1 Halicarnassus, 33/1 Shahwardi,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Laaheb has hit a new high recently and looks the danger toWHISPERING GALLERY who looked back to his best when winning on soft ground on his latest start. |
Laaheb is 10/11 and all red here. Only 4 horses under 33/1 here for 2 places in this Group 3, Class 1 race. As you saw with Makfi yesterday and Red Jazz placing at 25/1, all horses in group races are there because they have shown something.
425 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Casamento, 9/2 Mawaakef, 6/1 Factum, 12/1 Music In The Rain, 16/1 Robin Hood, 50/1 Hold The Aces, 100/1 Rossvoss.
Head 2nd to PAthfork, Casamento runs on soft and is an obvious favourite. Smullen onboard.
7 runners and 2 places, 2 horses are 66/1 or bigger.
Aiden O'Brien runs the 2nd favourite and Robin Hood.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Cukaricki v Crvena Zvezda - 1.18 away - home side have not even scored this season. 1.12 with Bet365 for Crvena so anything above that on Betfair is worth taking.
4pm - Omonia v APOP/Kinyras - 1.18 home. APOP have been spanked away from home but Omonia's recent home matches ( albeit 3 from last season) have been 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1 -not scoring many.
315 CURRAGH - Crysanthemum could be a good speculative bet if replicating sole winning start 2 weeks ago. Always a risk of course when you are basing decisions on one run and the 1.55 to place encapsulates this. A 2 year old too and we have seen them throw in unexpected stinkers!
Lordan/Wachman a great combo in Ireland.
350 CURRAGH - Hallies Comet looks good on paper and is another at 1.55 to place ( very illiquid market indeed) for Pat Smullen.
Concern regarding the ground at the Curragh today but Hallies has handled soft.
410 ASCOT - only 4 under 33/1 and 2 places on offer. If following the market, Laaheb would be the choice. 10/11 and all red, very well fancied today. The only drawbacks are that there are 2 places and there are group 3, class 1 horses in opposition.
425 CURRAGH - Casamento looks a good prospect here again with the impressive Pat Smullen onboard. 1.19 to place and 2 places shows you how the market feels. Competitive opposition but this could be a good horse here who will run on soft.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Cukaricki v Crvena Zvezda - 1.18 away - looks like out of form v in form in this match. Cukaricki have not even scored yet which gives us hope that if Crvena can score, then they can bring home the odds.
What a pity there is absolutely no interest at the moment in the Betfair market. This 1.18 may look good, but there is tuppence in the market. Bet365 offer 1.12 which is liquid.
3 horses races in Ireland on soft ( heavy in places and yielding in places on both courses at the Curragh) and one 2 the place group race.
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