What can I do? Even Fergie is against me fielding a reserve side in a Champions League group match. My bet presumed the big boys would be playing, you know , Scholes, Berbatov, Vidic, Evra, Nani, and all we get is the reserve side, featuring Fabio who is no Evra, Owen who is well past it, Park the workhorse instead of Scholes the master passer. A first team would have won easily at home against a team who struggled against Hamilton at the weekend!
Sloven Liberec won with ease at 4pm, I only hope some opted for that - I did stress that was my best bet of the day. The market was surprisingly liquid. Barca won,Mama Lulu won, Scantily Clad won.
I wish there was a way I could have contacted you on viewing the team news, as a shudder went down my back when I saw the absentees.
I lost as well yesterday
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
but thankfully, on seeing the team news, opted for the 0-0 insurance bet.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
It cost £9 and paid off - I wanted to tell you but presumed few would be checking their emails or the blog once the bet was placed.
Another case of "so nearly" and it is becoming a real frustration especially with rock solid alternative bets throughout the day and all the hard work researching not paying off as it should
I really needed this win yesterday and if I knew a reserve team was playing in a Champions League match, of course I would have opted for Barca or insisted upon Slovan Liberec regardless of liquidity.
Incidentally, I hope you backed Barcelona 1-0 down at odds as high as 1.47 ( for a 1.15 shot!!) -they won with ease eventually and equalised within a minute or 2.
FOOTBALL
630pm - B93 v Silkeborg - 1.36 away - Danish Cup - 3-1 twice in head to heads albeit in 2004 and 2003. D3E division v the top flight. Generally this gulf has resulted in easy wins for the favourites. Interestingly quite a high price relative to other such matches. 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in last 10 - 2 losses have come for B93 in their last 2 matches losing, yes you guessed it, 3-1 !This is good news surely for Silkeborg.
Solidity to B93's home form.10 wins and 2 draws in their last 12 matches. Most recent loss came in last match.
Silkeborg must be buoyed by their recent performance away to big boys FC COpenhagen. Copenhagen were 1.28 to win this match, and Silkeborg went 2-0 up before the game ended 2-2.
I think I have just found out why Silkeborg are so big relative to other teams in division 1 playing Division 3 sides. They HAVE NOT WON in their last 12.6 losses and 6 draws. 7 of those matches were over 2.5 goals.
DLDDLLLDLLLL for last 12 away matches ( but remember these were in Division 1) Looking at the 4 most recent away matches and are Silkeborg on the verge of a turning point? 3 draws and a loss in their last 4 away matches.
It is difficult to gauge Silkeborg's form for me. Can we assume 3 draws and a loss away in their last 4 away matches is a turning point? How good are B93? They have solid form BUT IN DIVISION 3!
745pm - AC Milan v Auxerre - 1.47 home - 2-0 loss v Cesena last match ( but was this due to changes with the Champions League on the horizon?)
AC Milan at home are tough to beat. In their last 12 , they won 5, drew 6 and lost 3-2 to Man Utd in their last 12.
This points to a lay of Auxerre who are no world shakers.
DLWDLDDL since 1st August for Auxerre. Away from home LLDLWDWLWWDD - focussing on the last 4 matches and they are not too healthy away from home.
4 draws and a loss in their first 5 in the league is a poor start for Auxerre.
Instinctually, this looks a great chance for AC Milan and 1.47, while suspiciously high, is very tempting, perhaps from a trading angle.
Considering Auxerre lost only 4 away last season, the fact theur are LLDL in their last 4 is a worry for them.
Auxerre are that dangerous betting proposition - a relatively unknown side.
745pm - Arsenal v Braga - 1.33 home-Arsenal have won 9, drawn 2 and lost 1 in their last 12 ( many friendlies though)
At home, they have won 9 and drawn 3.
KEY PERSONNEL MISSING - Walcott / Van Persie - 2 very good attacking players who can change a match,
Braga have only lost 3 of their last 12 matches. Braga have beaten Sevilla and Celtic in Champions League qualifiers so are being underestimated here. Arsenal are in good home form, but Bolton and Blackpool are no Braga.
Standout away win against Sevilla ( they did not to win against Celtic as they battered them at home already) should signal some worry for the Arse.
A general impression that the Arsenal odds are a tad short and dismissive of a side who seem to have turned a corner. Like Auxerre, another side relatively unknown.
745pm - Real Madrid v Ajax - 1.28 home - Special One does not lose at home ( well in the league but I am sure his other stats at home are solid) 0-0 and 1-0 so far is typical Special One scorelines. Boring and drab but getting the points.
Ajax have already dispatched of PAOK and Dinamo Kiev, scoring plenty. With Suarez superb for club, Ajax cannot be dismissed as they have a goal threat. Check out Twente's 2-2 v Inter Milan ( albeit at home)
Ignoring the friendlies, we can only look at Real Madrid since Mourinho's arrival. 0-0 and 1-0 - and there are no signals re how Jose will perform at home. He needs not to concede and hopefully score.
1.19 over 1.5 goals is an obvious starting point if Real's profligacy infront of goal can be addressed. We know Ajax can score ( but their league opposition is not of the same calibre as La Liga)
745pm - Shakhtar v Partizan Belgrade - 1.45 home - Partizan won 1-0 in December 2009 in head to heads. Shaktar are not in goalscoring mood of late - too many tight games of 1-0 and 1-1 lead me to leave this match alone.
745pm - Zilina v Chelsea - 1.34 away - Slovakian league v Premiership. Hmmm. This is perhaps the standout short priced game today and looks the most obvious from a betting perspective.
Ignoring the summer friendlies, Chelsea have won the other 7 of their last 12 games
Zilina beat Sparta Prague and Litex Lovech in their Champions League qualifiers.
WDWDWDWWWDDW for Zilina in their last 12.
WWDWWDWWWDWW for their last 12 home matches. You could say they are used to not losing at home but quality of opposition in Slovakian League is perhaps not Premiership quality.
Again ignoring the summer friendlies which we know ended in 5 defeats, Chelsea have won 7 and lost one away from home.
As I said earlier, this looks the most solid short priced match today.
Carlo Ancelotti, Chelsea coach
I've already made a decision about the starting lineup: Čech, Ivanović, Alex, Terry, Zhirkov, John Obi Mikel, Essien, Benayoun, Malouda, Anelka, Sturridge. Žilina are a good team. I saw their play-off against Sparta. They deserved to go through. We have to be careful because they are a very organised side, especially in defence, and can cause us problems. We cannot afford to feel superior. In football everything is possible but, yes, we expect victory.
Just as I was getting optimistic I see Drogba and Fat Frank are out. The former is the greater loss in my mind. But Essien is very able. I would prefer to have seen Kalou who is a natural goalscorer.
225 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Exodus, 9/2 Qubuh, 5/1 Optiflame, 8/1 Whatever It Takes, 10/1 Mykonos, 14/1 Annamay, 25/1 Byte The Bullet, He Is Top Class.
Exodus is Murtagh/O'Brien and is having only his 2nd run , and on soft ground which, for a 2 year old, may affect him.
3 horses are 33/1 or bigger which should hopefully leave 5 runners and 3 places.
235 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Shrew, 8/1 Cool Wind, Silver Show, 10/1 Mazagee, Set To Music, 14/1 Alensgrove, Kaua´i Girl, 16/1 Eaves Lane, Phoenix Flame, 33/1 Detailedassessment, 50/1 Srimenanti, 66/1 Efrosini.
Huge price gapper the Shrew . There are only 4 under 14/1 here who it is hoped will vye for the 3 places but note Diomed's words " quite interesting newcomers and some potential improvers"
Neck 2nd last time out at 8/1 to a 20/1 horse ( as with Clear Reason, the fact a 20/1 horse won may not boost the form?)
320 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Free As A Lark, 9/2 Bizarrely, Kenyan Cat, 7/1 Seriy Tzarina, 8/1 Power Of Dreams, 10/1 Converre, Telescopic, 16/1 Marafong, 25/1 Mister Frosty, 33/1 Kings On The Roof, Suzi´s Challenger, 66/1 Southwark Newsman,
Soft ground a concern. 2 market leaders are non runners which makes Kenyan Cat the obvious alternative?
But he has never run on soft and this is a seller!
335 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Clearwater Bay, 4/1 Address Unknown, 6/1 Gan Amhras, 7/1 Icon Dream, Magen´s Star, 8/1 What A Charm, 10/1 Worldly Wise, 14/1 Don Leone, 100/1 Tusa An Fear.
2nd fav a significant non runner makes Clearwater Bay for Murtagh/O'Brien a likely candidate
405 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Skysurfers, 3/1 Penitent, 4/1 Riggins, 6/1 Dandy Boy, 9/1 Bronze Cannon, 14/1 Fontley, 16/1 Dunn´o,
6 runners now and 3 places makes Skysurfers under Frankie interesting but his place only price is a bit big given this is a 50/50 race and may signal a tight race.
535 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Another Ambition, 7/1 Clarkey, Mahrajaan, 8/1 China Goes Green, Idarah, Jigalo, 10/1 Alabama Banjo, Francis Du Mesnil, Manhattan Boy, 16/1 Port La Chaine, 20/1 Gerannjo, 25/1 Best Of Bocelli, Chasers Chance, Speedlock, 33/1 Moscow Breeze, Saddler´s Native.
FAv is Walsh/Martin combo and must be respected.
610 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Kristalette, 9/4 Astral Flower, 11/2 Ahaazeeg, 15/2 Corres, 8/1 Santa Margherita, 50/1 Hecton Lad, 66/1 Polebrook.
Front 2 should dominate. Astral Flower is ultra consistent form wise but still a maiden.
710 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Red Oleander, 11/2 Mediplomat, 6/1 Ninfea, 7/1 Sheila´s Star, 9/1 Barista, Highcliffe, 14/1 Dolcezza, Indian Wish, 16/1 Seas Of Sorrow, 20/1 Blaze On By, 25/1 Whitby Jet, 40/1 Bouzy.
Red Oleander was mentioned last time he ran and won for Prescott/Sanders - surprising improvement for another Prescott handicapper and could run well again.
810 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Roayh, 2/1 Pausanias, 3/1 Zenella, 8/1 Crimson China, 25/1 My Son Max,
4 horses and 3 places and Roayh and Pausanias should dominate.
SHORTLIST
745pm - Real Madrid v Ajax - 1.28 home - will Jose let them off the leash? 0-0 and 1-0 so far in La Liga against a team who scored 23 in their last 10 games. It is difficult to read the Special One.
745pm - AC Milan v Auxerre - 1.47 home - we face an unknown side here and that is always a concern when betting.LAying Auxerre at 9.6 is a 1.11 bet
745pm - Zilina v Chelsea - 1.34 away - looks the most obvious short priced bet of the day this one. Yes, Zilina beat Villa away in the UEFA Cup as was.Čech, Ivanović, Alex, Terry, Zhirkov, John Obi Mikel, Essien, Benayoun, Malouda, Anelka, Sturridge - thank God he is not chosing a weakened side out of arrogance.
The question is " how big a loss in Drogba and Lampard?"
225 LISTOWEL - Exodus has been battered into 1/2 for this 8 runner maiden. Concern that he is on soft in only his 2nd ever run ( and as a 2 year old he is still learning) 1.12 to place in a race where 3 are 33/1 or bigger
320 YARMOUTH - Kenyan Cat is an obvious shout here with 2 market leaders out, but he has never run on soft ground and this is a seller.1.35 to place
335 LISTOWEL - just what I need, those words "more expected if handling this ground." Clearwater Bay is another Ballydoyle horse and likely to be competitive but we have soft ground as an unknown for the horse.
405 SANDOWN - this looks a 4 horse race ( 4 under 12/1) and Skysurfers is obvious candidate although uneasy in the market. But there are 3 places and Dettori is an obvious plus.
Very tight amongst the top 4 and we are purely playing probabilities. Like Clear Reason, it would be a frustration were he to get beaten by 3 others in a potential 4 horse race. 1.36 to place in an illiquid market does not add to any confidence.
810 KEMPTON - 4 horses and 3 places and an obvious chance for the front 2 but we would have to check the market nearer the off.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
After Fergie's arrogant choice of reserve team yesterday bollocked up my day, I am left looking for an ultra solid bet. From the day's offerings here is the shortlist of the shortlist but today I wish there was a Slovan Liberec to get me back on track or a Barcelona.
745pm - AC Milan v Auxerre - 1.47 home - laying Auxerre covers the draw 9.6 is a 1.11 bet but we have the concern that this is a relatively unknown team and therein potential shocks lie
745pm - Zilina v Chelsea - 1.34 away - well the team is out already which is great and this looks a mismatch and the best bet of the day but Zilina, like Auxerre, are relative unknowns and we do not know how defensive they will be. Solid home form ( albeit in a poor league)
405 SANDOWN - this looks a great probability race. Skysurfers for Frankie Dettori an obvious candidate but not been backed and the market is 2/1, 7/2 , 7/2, 9/2. Probability wise he should place in the first 3 with 2 others at 12/1 and 20/1 but the market is ultra tight and the 1.36 to place is high ( signalling a tight market)
810 KEMPTON - 4 horses, 3 places and one 14/1 horse makes for another good probability race.
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
Incidentally, I hope you backed Barcelona 1-0 down at odds as high as 1.47 ( for a 1.15 shot!!) -they won with ease eventually and equalised within a minute or 2.
FOOTBALL
630pm - B93 v Silkeborg - 1.36 away - Danish Cup - 3-1 twice in head to heads albeit in 2004 and 2003. D3E division v the top flight. Generally this gulf has resulted in easy wins for the favourites. Interestingly quite a high price relative to other such matches. 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in last 10 - 2 losses have come for B93 in their last 2 matches losing, yes you guessed it, 3-1 !This is good news surely for Silkeborg.
Solidity to B93's home form.10 wins and 2 draws in their last 12 matches. Most recent loss came in last match.
Silkeborg must be buoyed by their recent performance away to big boys FC COpenhagen. Copenhagen were 1.28 to win this match, and Silkeborg went 2-0 up before the game ended 2-2.
I think I have just found out why Silkeborg are so big relative to other teams in division 1 playing Division 3 sides. They HAVE NOT WON in their last 12.6 losses and 6 draws. 7 of those matches were over 2.5 goals.
DLDDLLLDLLLL for last 12 away matches ( but remember these were in Division 1) Looking at the 4 most recent away matches and are Silkeborg on the verge of a turning point? 3 draws and a loss in their last 4 away matches.
It is difficult to gauge Silkeborg's form for me. Can we assume 3 draws and a loss away in their last 4 away matches is a turning point? How good are B93? They have solid form BUT IN DIVISION 3!
745pm - AC Milan v Auxerre - 1.47 home - 2-0 loss v Cesena last match ( but was this due to changes with the Champions League on the horizon?)
AC Milan at home are tough to beat. In their last 12 , they won 5, drew 6 and lost 3-2 to Man Utd in their last 12.
This points to a lay of Auxerre who are no world shakers.
DLWDLDDL since 1st August for Auxerre. Away from home LLDLWDWLWWDD - focussing on the last 4 matches and they are not too healthy away from home.
4 draws and a loss in their first 5 in the league is a poor start for Auxerre.
Instinctually, this looks a great chance for AC Milan and 1.47, while suspiciously high, is very tempting, perhaps from a trading angle.
Considering Auxerre lost only 4 away last season, the fact theur are LLDL in their last 4 is a worry for them.
Auxerre are that dangerous betting proposition - a relatively unknown side.
745pm - Arsenal v Braga - 1.33 home-Arsenal have won 9, drawn 2 and lost 1 in their last 12 ( many friendlies though)
At home, they have won 9 and drawn 3.
KEY PERSONNEL MISSING - Walcott / Van Persie - 2 very good attacking players who can change a match,
Braga have only lost 3 of their last 12 matches. Braga have beaten Sevilla and Celtic in Champions League qualifiers so are being underestimated here. Arsenal are in good home form, but Bolton and Blackpool are no Braga.
Standout away win against Sevilla ( they did not to win against Celtic as they battered them at home already) should signal some worry for the Arse.
A general impression that the Arsenal odds are a tad short and dismissive of a side who seem to have turned a corner. Like Auxerre, another side relatively unknown.
745pm - Real Madrid v Ajax - 1.28 home - Special One does not lose at home ( well in the league but I am sure his other stats at home are solid) 0-0 and 1-0 so far is typical Special One scorelines. Boring and drab but getting the points.
Ajax have already dispatched of PAOK and Dinamo Kiev, scoring plenty. With Suarez superb for club, Ajax cannot be dismissed as they have a goal threat. Check out Twente's 2-2 v Inter Milan ( albeit at home)
Ignoring the friendlies, we can only look at Real Madrid since Mourinho's arrival. 0-0 and 1-0 - and there are no signals re how Jose will perform at home. He needs not to concede and hopefully score.
1.19 over 1.5 goals is an obvious starting point if Real's profligacy infront of goal can be addressed. We know Ajax can score ( but their league opposition is not of the same calibre as La Liga)
745pm - Shakhtar v Partizan Belgrade - 1.45 home - Partizan won 1-0 in December 2009 in head to heads. Shaktar are not in goalscoring mood of late - too many tight games of 1-0 and 1-1 lead me to leave this match alone.
745pm - Zilina v Chelsea - 1.34 away - Slovakian league v Premiership. Hmmm. This is perhaps the standout short priced game today and looks the most obvious from a betting perspective.
Ignoring the summer friendlies, Chelsea have won the other 7 of their last 12 games
Zilina beat Sparta Prague and Litex Lovech in their Champions League qualifiers.
WDWDWDWWWDDW for Zilina in their last 12.
WWDWWDWWWDWW for their last 12 home matches. You could say they are used to not losing at home but quality of opposition in Slovakian League is perhaps not Premiership quality.
Again ignoring the summer friendlies which we know ended in 5 defeats, Chelsea have won 7 and lost one away from home.
As I said earlier, this looks the most solid short priced match today.
Carlo Ancelotti, Chelsea coach
I've already made a decision about the starting lineup: Čech, Ivanović, Alex, Terry, Zhirkov, John Obi Mikel, Essien, Benayoun, Malouda, Anelka, Sturridge. Žilina are a good team. I saw their play-off against Sparta. They deserved to go through. We have to be careful because they are a very organised side, especially in defence, and can cause us problems. We cannot afford to feel superior. In football everything is possible but, yes, we expect victory.
Just as I was getting optimistic I see Drogba and Fat Frank are out. The former is the greater loss in my mind. But Essien is very able. I would prefer to have seen Kalou who is a natural goalscorer.
225 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Exodus, 9/2 Qubuh, 5/1 Optiflame, 8/1 Whatever It Takes, 10/1 Mykonos, 14/1 Annamay, 25/1 Byte The Bullet, He Is Top Class.
Exodus is Murtagh/O'Brien and is having only his 2nd run , and on soft ground which, for a 2 year old, may affect him.
3 horses are 33/1 or bigger which should hopefully leave 5 runners and 3 places.
235 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Shrew, 8/1 Cool Wind, Silver Show, 10/1 Mazagee, Set To Music, 14/1 Alensgrove, Kaua´i Girl, 16/1 Eaves Lane, Phoenix Flame, 33/1 Detailedassessment, 50/1 Srimenanti, 66/1 Efrosini.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to get away from THE SHREW despite the presence of a couple of quite interesting newcomers and some potential improvers. Cool Wind may be the best each-way alternative. |
Huge price gapper the Shrew . There are only 4 under 14/1 here who it is hoped will vye for the 3 places but note Diomed's words " quite interesting newcomers and some potential improvers"
Neck 2nd last time out at 8/1 to a 20/1 horse ( as with Clear Reason, the fact a 20/1 horse won may not boost the form?)
320 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Free As A Lark, 9/2 Bizarrely, Kenyan Cat, 7/1 Seriy Tzarina, 8/1 Power Of Dreams, 10/1 Converre, Telescopic, 16/1 Marafong, 25/1 Mister Frosty, 33/1 Kings On The Roof, Suzi´s Challenger, 66/1 Southwark Newsman,
| DIOMED VERDICT: A decent opportunity for the downgraded FREE AS A LARK who looks well worth a crack at this trip. |
Soft ground a concern. 2 market leaders are non runners which makes Kenyan Cat the obvious alternative?
But he has never run on soft and this is a seller!
335 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Clearwater Bay, 4/1 Address Unknown, 6/1 Gan Amhras, 7/1 Icon Dream, Magen´s Star, 8/1 What A Charm, 10/1 Worldly Wise, 14/1 Don Leone, 100/1 Tusa An Fear.
2nd fav a significant non runner makes Clearwater Bay for Murtagh/O'Brien a likely candidate
405 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Skysurfers, 3/1 Penitent, 4/1 Riggins, 6/1 Dandy Boy, 9/1 Bronze Cannon, 14/1 Fontley, 16/1 Dunn´o,
| DIOMED VERDICT: SKYSURFERS (nap) appeals most. |
6 runners now and 3 places makes Skysurfers under Frankie interesting but his place only price is a bit big given this is a 50/50 race and may signal a tight race.
535 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Another Ambition, 7/1 Clarkey, Mahrajaan, 8/1 China Goes Green, Idarah, Jigalo, 10/1 Alabama Banjo, Francis Du Mesnil, Manhattan Boy, 16/1 Port La Chaine, 20/1 Gerannjo, 25/1 Best Of Bocelli, Chasers Chance, Speedlock, 33/1 Moscow Breeze, Saddler´s Native.
FAv is Walsh/Martin combo and must be respected.
610 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Kristalette, 9/4 Astral Flower, 11/2 Ahaazeeg, 15/2 Corres, 8/1 Santa Margherita, 50/1 Hecton Lad, 66/1 Polebrook.
| DIOMED VERDICT: KRISTALETTE has leading claims on her much-improved second behind a useful and progressive type here last time |
Front 2 should dominate. Astral Flower is ultra consistent form wise but still a maiden.
710 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Red Oleander, 11/2 Mediplomat, 6/1 Ninfea, 7/1 Sheila´s Star, 9/1 Barista, Highcliffe, 14/1 Dolcezza, Indian Wish, 16/1 Seas Of Sorrow, 20/1 Blaze On By, 25/1 Whitby Jet, 40/1 Bouzy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Despite a 9lb rise RED OLEANDER still looks ahead of the handicapper and, with the extra furlong expected to suit, she can follow up her Lingfield win. Mediplomat may give her most to do. |
Red Oleander was mentioned last time he ran and won for Prescott/Sanders - surprising improvement for another Prescott handicapper and could run well again.
810 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Roayh, 2/1 Pausanias, 3/1 Zenella, 8/1 Crimson China, 25/1 My Son Max,
| DIOMED VERDICT: There are doubts about Roayh and the well-regarded PAUSANIAS, who made a successful debut at Glorious Goodwood, is preferred. |
4 horses and 3 places and Roayh and Pausanias should dominate.
SHORTLIST
745pm - Real Madrid v Ajax - 1.28 home - will Jose let them off the leash? 0-0 and 1-0 so far in La Liga against a team who scored 23 in their last 10 games. It is difficult to read the Special One.
745pm - AC Milan v Auxerre - 1.47 home - we face an unknown side here and that is always a concern when betting.LAying Auxerre at 9.6 is a 1.11 bet
745pm - Zilina v Chelsea - 1.34 away - looks the most obvious short priced bet of the day this one. Yes, Zilina beat Villa away in the UEFA Cup as was.Čech, Ivanović, Alex, Terry, Zhirkov, John Obi Mikel, Essien, Benayoun, Malouda, Anelka, Sturridge - thank God he is not chosing a weakened side out of arrogance.
The question is " how big a loss in Drogba and Lampard?"
225 LISTOWEL - Exodus has been battered into 1/2 for this 8 runner maiden. Concern that he is on soft in only his 2nd ever run ( and as a 2 year old he is still learning) 1.12 to place in a race where 3 are 33/1 or bigger
320 YARMOUTH - Kenyan Cat is an obvious shout here with 2 market leaders out, but he has never run on soft ground and this is a seller.1.35 to place
335 LISTOWEL - just what I need, those words "more expected if handling this ground." Clearwater Bay is another Ballydoyle horse and likely to be competitive but we have soft ground as an unknown for the horse.
405 SANDOWN - this looks a 4 horse race ( 4 under 12/1) and Skysurfers is obvious candidate although uneasy in the market. But there are 3 places and Dettori is an obvious plus.
Very tight amongst the top 4 and we are purely playing probabilities. Like Clear Reason, it would be a frustration were he to get beaten by 3 others in a potential 4 horse race. 1.36 to place in an illiquid market does not add to any confidence.
810 KEMPTON - 4 horses and 3 places and an obvious chance for the front 2 but we would have to check the market nearer the off.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
After Fergie's arrogant choice of reserve team yesterday bollocked up my day, I am left looking for an ultra solid bet. From the day's offerings here is the shortlist of the shortlist but today I wish there was a Slovan Liberec to get me back on track or a Barcelona.
745pm - AC Milan v Auxerre - 1.47 home - laying Auxerre covers the draw 9.6 is a 1.11 bet but we have the concern that this is a relatively unknown team and therein potential shocks lie
745pm - Zilina v Chelsea - 1.34 away - well the team is out already which is great and this looks a mismatch and the best bet of the day but Zilina, like Auxerre, are relative unknowns and we do not know how defensive they will be. Solid home form ( albeit in a poor league)
405 SANDOWN - this looks a great probability race. Skysurfers for Frankie Dettori an obvious candidate but not been backed and the market is 2/1, 7/2 , 7/2, 9/2. Probability wise he should place in the first 3 with 2 others at 12/1 and 20/1 but the market is ultra tight and the 1.36 to place is high ( signalling a tight market)
810 KEMPTON - 4 horses, 3 places and one 14/1 horse makes for another good probability race.
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
No comments:
Post a Comment