Sunday, 5 September 2010

5/9

Wholly inadequate message as there are no prices in the live betting in the horse racing to show me confidence/market movers/ non runners etc.
I have listed obvious likely ones today but am really betting blind without the markets.
I cannot do much else at present as I have a funeral slap bang in the middle of when I normally check the markets.
I would keep my eye on Paco Boy today as Richard Hughes makes the journey for Richard Hannon. Only 2 places mind you.
Syrianska v Osters may show over 1.5 goals but it is a lowly division.

Normal service will be resumes tomorrow.



Unspectacular prices to begin September for the main bets but their probabilities of success are very high and so it proved with Measuring Time yesterday. RipVan Winkle was rather speculative but clung on to 2nd for a nice 1.4 payout at the off.

Yet again Wozniacki stampeded past Chan with the loss of one game for a great 1.2 2-0 sets bet .Woz could be a reliable early round betting medium for some time to come I think.
Mardy Fish eventually won in 5 sets meaning that those who retained faith in him ( as I did) could have backed Mardy ( a 1.15 shot) as high as 1.75 in running ( I got 1.37) and traded at a low of 1.13 as early as the 3rd set. I know it is only one a day betting but some days these opportunities arise and if not taken advantage of, are gone forever.

FOOTBALL
Low grade stuff, like yesterday, expected again today in this International Break.
2pm - Atalanta v Frosinone - 1.5 home - Italian Division 2 tells us we have to look at lower leagues ( lower leagues = lack of consistency) - only 2 games into this league so nothing concrete to go on. Perhaps a look to last year may help? Have won one at home and drawn one away from home this season. Atalanta were in Seria A last season where they only won 6 at home. Interestingly, April last year saw 4 consecutive home wins, followed by a draw and loss in May. was that momentum because they were fighting for their lives? Against the top 10 last season in Division 2 , away from home, Frosinone lost 7 and won 3. I would put Atalanta on a par with the top 10 in division 2 last year. IN RUNNING so tradeable. The asian handicap market makers see this as a tight old game with spread of +0.5 to +1.5 ( best case Atalanta win by 2, worse case is a draw)
3pm - Syrianska FC v Osters - 1.43 home - IN RUNNING

Home team Syrianska So have a home record of 7-2-2 (W-D-L) for their 11 home games this season, 23 points from a possible 33. That's a home points average of 2.09 compared to 1.74 for all games this season. Syrianska So's recent points average is 2.00, 12 points from 6 games 3-3-0 (W-D-L) Syrianska So's last 10 league games record reads WDWDDDWDWW (WDWDDDWDWW) while their last 10 home league games read LDWWLWWDWW (DDWWLWWDWW).

Away team Oster have an away record of 3-0-8 (W-D-L) for their 11 away games this season, 9 points from a possible 33. That's an away points average of 0.82 compared to 0.78 for all games this season. Oster's recent points average is 0.17, 1 points from games; Oster's last 10 league games record reads LWDLDLLLLL (LWDLDLLLLL) while their last 10 away league games read LLWLWLWLLL
1-1 in April 2010 head to head
Syrianska are unbeaten in their last 10, 4 wins and a draw at home. Oster have won 1 in their last 10 matches. 2-0, 2-0, and 4-0 losses in their last 3 away matches.
Interestingly over 1.5 goals is a quite appealing 1.23 ( and tradeable)
Looks again like a team who score v a team who concede away from home.
5pm - Sarpsborg v Bryne - 1.42 home - Norwegian Division 2 - Byrne have won the last 2 head to heads, and drew the previous 2 so the 1.42 for Sarpsborg does not appeal.


TENNIS
630pm -
Nadal v Simon
1.09 for Nadal but 2 7-5 sets in last match suggests 3-0's will be more difficult to come by.
730pm - A Murray v Wawrinka - 1.11 for Ruby here Last head to head in 2009 at Wimbledon. Close head to heads between these 2, albeit not ultra recently again signals a dismissal of Murray 3-0 sets as this is likely to be no easy ride for Murray today.

HORSE RACING PROVISIONAL
The betting markets are not lively yet so I only have the betting forecast and not the live market as my guide so this is a very rough guide and the best I can do given my circumstances today.

530 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Spe Salvi, 7/1 Restless Harriet, 14/1 Dark Ruby, 14/1 Karingabay Queen, 20/1 La Belle Au Bois.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In an uncompetitive race it's hard to get away from SPE SALVI, who won't have to improve to defy a penalty. [Richard Young]

Obvious contender here in this bumper ( no obstacles) - as a bumper the market needs consultation for market movers . As things stand, with 2 places only, this should assure us a decent enough place only price.

200 WORCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Common Touch, 5/1 Orientalist, 7/1 Smart Step, 8/1 Saskia´s Dream, 10/1 Buzz Law, 10/1 Last Destination, 12/1 Piccarello, 16/1 Grazeon Again, 20/1 El Torbellino, 20/1 Lady Del Sol, 50/1 Tapis Libre.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Richard Fahey won this last year and has strong claims again with COMMON TOUCH who justified good support on his debut over 6f here in July. Smart Step can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]

Price gapper here albeit in a nursery 9 2 year old handicap)

243 LONGCHAMP

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's quite possible Lope De Vega will make his own running and he won't be easy to pass if back to his classic-winning best, but it's hard to ignore the claims of PACO BOY, who will surely do these for finishing speed assuming the ground remains decent.

Hughes/Hannon take on the french - no prices up for Paco Boy just yet but probably will be near market favourite. Only 2 places alas but faith in the combo could pay off.


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