back-lay-trade-horses-football: 28/9

Horse racing very poor today, littered with maidens and open handicaps.

To the football then and I cannot see Auxerre getting anything out of Real Madrid tonight

***** 745pm - Auxerre v Real Madrid - LAY Auxerre at odds of 8 using usual stake as Fixed Liability. This makes the bet an equivalent 1.13 back bet*****

Alternatively, back Real MAdrid and take out an insurance cover bet on 0-0 incase Auxerre shut out Real.

For those willing to take a chance, the Bayern price looks massive against a team beaten by Cluj. Perhaps back Bayern and cover with a 0-0. NOTE - Bayern's price is drifting so market makers may know something I don't.

supercharged 2nd so job done.
As an interesting aside, the winners of the races mentioned yesterday all were 16/1 system market movers. Something I could not see at time of writing but something live market followers could have picked up on.

530pm - Spartak Moscow v Zilina - 1.38 home - a Champions League match featuring Slovakian team Zilina who were put in their place by Chelsea. It is always difficult to gauge these one off matches. Zilina could not score in their last league match. Spartak have lost 3 in their last 11, winning 6 and drawing 2. As I said in my last analysis of Zilina, they are the dominant force in the Slovakian league.
745pm - Auxerre v Real Madrid - 1.61 away - where are the goals going to come from under Mourinho away from home? Bear in mind, here, that away goals are key to success. Auxerre have only won 2 of their last 12 matches which logically makes Real Madrid the favourites here. Unbeaten so far in the league and a nice 2-0 home victory against Ajax in the Champions League, Real are difficult to predict. Priced to win well against Levante at the weekend, they could only muster a 0-0. The concern is that Real Madrid have difficulty against teams with strong defensive attitudes.
Auxerre have lost 3 and drawn 2 in their last 5 matches. It was a good home win in the Champions League against Zenit St Petersburg, but in the 2nd half, Zenit had 2 sent off so the 2-0 win is not " clean" .
Auxerre at 7.6 is layable. I suspect the Champions League Real Madrid are a different animal to the league side?
At home, Auxerre have drawn 8, won 3 and lost 1 in their last 12 ( that loss was in a friendly). This again hints at a lay of Auxerre given their ability to draw.
Real have won 7 and drawn 5 in their last 12 away ( but like Auxerre some of these were friendlies)

745pm - Cardiff v C Palace - 1.57 home - 4 away losses out of 4 for Palace so far this season. Cardiff have not lost in their last 6 against Palace, and added to that poor Palace away record, this could be a good time to back the Blues with the excellent David Bellamy playing too. Perhaps back Cardiff at 1.57 to lay off if they lead at any stage? Cardiff at home have won 3 out of 3. Away from home they are poor.
4 of Palace's last 5 matches have seen 3 or more goals scored.
All of Cardiff's matches have been over 1.5 goals. 1.28 over 1.5 goals and in running.
745pm - Chelsea v Marseille - 1.44 home - in the Champions League, an own goal gave Marseille a 1-0 victory against Spartak Moscow.
Chelsea have lost their last 2 matches, but one was a League Cup match, the other against Man City.
CHelsea's only 2 home losses have come in the League Cup and 1-0 to Inter Milan in the Champions League.
Drogba meets old employers so will be extra motivated.
Again a tricky one to add up, but Chelsea will be mindful of the away goal threat. The asian handicappers think Chelsea have goals in them and begin at +1.5

745pm - FC Basel v B Munich - 2.02 away - my knee jerk reaction here is that this is a massive price for Bayern Munich against a side from a weaker league. Basel lost 2-1 to Cluj in the Champions League and look below at the price for Roma against Cluj. This could hint at Basel's level as regards the more well known European teams.
Bayern are really missing Robben. They have won 2, lost 2, drawn 2 so far in the league. They actually didn't score in 3 matches.
Basel have only lost 1 of their last 12 at home, but we have to wonder how strong the Swiss league is.
After all, there are only 10 teams and so competition is not there.
This is why the 2.02 is so tempting purely from a trading perspective if Bayern lead at any stage. Surely the Bundesliga is far better quality than 10 team Swiss league?

745pm - Newport County v Forest Green - 1.5 home - good recent form v bad recent form. Newport have won last 4 and are unbeaten in last 10.
Forest Green have lost last 4 and have not won in last 7. BUT Newport's recent wins have been tight - 1-0, 2-1, 1-0 , 1-0. Forest Green , though have conceded 2,4,3,3 in their 4 losses recently
745pm - Roma v CFR Cluj - 1.41 home 2008 1-2 loss at home and 3-1 away win for Roma.
WLDLLDL for Roma. The win was 1-0 v Inter Milan so a confidence booster of sorts.
WDD so far ( latest first always) at home for Roma could hint at a lay of Cluj?
Cluj DDLWLWLDL this season - 2 wins only.
Looks like 2 teams in poor form .
DDLLLD away from home in the league for Cluj again backs up, perhaps, the lay?
8pm - QPR v Millwall - 1.71 home - 7 wins and a 2-2 draw for QPR this season. At home, it is 4-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-0 -not conceded. This hints at a trade if we hope QPR score first.
WWLWDDLL (latest at the end) for Millwall this season. Away from home, WLDL.
Goals could be the order of the day here?
4,3,2,4,3,3,2,3 for QPR this season
3,4,4,4,2,0,7,3 for Millwall this season

1.31 over 1.5 goals is interesting? Head to heads tell a story of historically tight matches 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 but their relevance is questioned as they start at 2004 and end in 2006

laying Millwall at 6 is the same as a 1.19 back bet and covers the draw.

225 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Southerness, 11/4 Ashammar, 13/2 Bucephalus, 7/1 Rain Stops Play, 10/1 Fred Bojangals, Morning Time, 14/1 Contradiktive, 16/1 Veronicas Boy, 100/1 Roi´s Last Runner.

DIOMED VERDICT: ASHAMMAR looks a horse with some potential and can make a successful return in this easier company.

Only 3 under 14/1 and interestingly all 3 are all red and backed. Fred Bojangles is the market mover here.

245 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Red Riverman, 11/2 Blue Deer, 6/1 Marked Card, 17/2 Chief Of Men, 11/1 Madame Solitaire, 16/1 Captain Brown, Handicraft, 33/1 Honkers Bonkers, Safe Haven, 50/1 Last Act, 100/1 Nice Chimes.

DIOMED VERDICT: RED RIVERMAN (nap) has the form on the board and can repel the potential improvers in the line-up if this sharper course does not inconvenience.

Another maiden and another favourite with apparent form in the book. 32 "wins if handling course" Brighton is a unique course especially for 2 year olds.
Captain Brown is a big market mover for Prescott/Sanders and as a newcomer that is a potential gamble.

530 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Conduct, 8/1 Grams And Ounces, Hear The Roar, 9/1 Clockmaker, Fanditha, 10/1 Laudatory, 12/1 Valiant Knight, 14/1 Autumn Riches, Blues Music, 16/1 Cosimo de Medici, Majuro, Resentful Angel, Wiggy Smith, 25/1 Baylini, 28/1 Ellemujie, Geneva Geyser, 40/1 The Only Key.

DIOMED VERDICT: Plenty with chances but the one that really leaps off the page is CONDUCT who created a favourable impression when making a successful debut at Sandown and should be well suited by this step up in trip.