1225 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Red Tarn, 9/4 Orpenella, 10/1 A Valley Away, Jordi Roper, 12/1 Fifth Zak, 20/1 Martingrange Lass, Tuxsumdoin, 33/1 Grange Corner.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With stamina doubts over Orpenella this looks a good opportunity for RED TARN, who shaped with a degree of promise over C&D last time, to get off the mark at the 12th attempt. |
1.16 red tarn and 1.39 Orpanella
1235 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Paradise Expected, 3/1 Something Gold, 9/2 Rhetorical, 7/1 Princess Stephanie, 10/1 Gouranga, 14/1 Mysterious Green, 16/1 Storm Haven, 25/1 Purr.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Something Gold ran well enough at Catterick last time to merit attention at this level but the Tim Vaughan factor pushes the pendulum in favour of PARADISE EXPECTED (nap) |
Fav is out -does this make 2nd fav's job easier? CAution -seller but should be a 7 horse race paying out 3 the place - a messy market with nothing under 1.5 to palce so best avoided from my perspective. 3 the place still in a 7 runner race and value prices
1245 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Tataniano, 6/1 Blue Monty, 12/1 Gabreselassie, 14/1 Ballingaddy, 20/1 Alaminos, Our Hero, 50/1 Al Qanoon, 66/1 Southfield Hall, 100/1 Billybo, Elsie May, Lady Omara, Vic´s World, 300/1 Skipperham Well.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TATANIANO has been found a good opportunity to recover his hurdles debut losses, though his odds will inevitably be skinny again. Blue Monty has the next best hurdles form but disappointed last time |
Short odds and Sam "FRee Falling" Thomas on board.
5 horses sub 50/1 -surely this Nicholls horse only has to stay upright to score for place only backers 1.25 to win, 1.08 to place
140 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kicks For Free, 5/2 Tartak, 3/1 Calgary Bay, 11/1 The Cool Guy, 14/1 Kealshore Boy.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tartak is capable of a bold bid from the front, especially dropped back to a more suitable trip after running over 3m last time. However, KICKS FOR FREE's latest second in a Newbury Grade 2 looks by some way the best form on offer so, with some good course form over hurdles to his name and Ruby Walsh back on board, he is entitled to clear preference. Promising Calgary Bay may claim minor honours |
3 horse race? Ruby on the Fav
Kicks for free 1.5
Tartack - 1.8
CAlgary Bay 1.95
Other 2 horses are 6+ to place
Very interesting place only odds here in this 2 the place race. Got a fancy? You'll be getting 1/2 minimum. For me this is a race to follow the live market. icks for free an obviousw candidate and 1.5 is HUGE relatively speaking with (hopefully) only 1 to beat to place (between Tartack and Calgary Bay)
150 EXETEr
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Express Leader, 11/2 Perkin Warbeck, 8/1 Calaas, 12/1 Over The Flow, 14/1 Beyond Redemption, Mollys Garden, 16/1 Perfect Line, 20/1 Major Rumble, 50/1 Manmoon, Tremolo, 66/1 Deep Squeeze, Well Green.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EXPRESS LEADER (nap) remains a good prospect at this level despite his defeat in a Listed bumper and, granted proficient hurdling, should outclass this bunch. Perkin Warbeck and, if fit, Over The Flow may be the main threats |
Another Nicholls hot pot with Sam on board. Only 2 horses sub 10/1 1.66 / 1.15
There are a lot of potential cancdidates in IReland but predominantly in maiden hurdles and bumpers.
Hope in the handsd of the Nicholls mob today with the 2 main jockeys on show at 2 separate venues.
ONE A DAY
Immediately Kicks for free looks huge at 1.5 to place ,and to win £1.43 for example, the stake is £3!
BUT the 1.5 signifies a tight contest and the prospect of a shock. BUT McCoy, Walsh, and PAddy BRennan should help the winner and placed horses to come from their mounts
1225 SOUTHWELL - is an interesting probability race - the straight 8 means 3 the place and 2 market leaders here in Red Tarn and Orpenella. This is a maiden race and Red Tarn has not won in many attempts but, as I write ,is holding firm at 11/10 at the head of the market.
I really don't like these middle distance events
A race for apprentices, it might be "get out the prayer mat" time for backers.
A horse who has run ok over course and distance, Red Tarn would be the selection here at 1.16
1235 FAK - give it a miss- a messy race
1245 EXETER - Tataniano a very obvious candidate and at 1.08 to place, should surely just need to stay on his feet to bring home the place money. 1.25 to win is a strong indicator
140 CHELT - A possible 3 horse race? Back fav to place (likely to be Kicks for free) and just hope he can manage a 1st or 2nd place under Ruby Walsh - that 1.5 won't go away from my thoughts and I might take a gamble on this one
150 EXETER - another Nicholls hot pot and an obvious cabndidate - of course a novice at hurdles we just hope he has schooled well adn the price is an indicator of the horse's ability rather than the trainer and jockey reputation
In conclusion, I will chance Red Tarn today in the 1225 on the proviso the price remains at 11/10 or thereabouts and does not drift - I may need my head examined in an apprentice ridden maiden!
Clearly, Tatatiano is the rock solid one today (as his price reflects) and Kicks for free at 1.5 represents a clight "gamble " with seemingly 2 to place and Ruby Walsh on board. Target profit per dayers won't need to stake much, so if an apprentice ridden maiden makes you feel queazy, and a 1.08 shot with Sam " stay on please you fecker" Thomas , then Kicks for free represents value and probability in a 5 horse race whrere 2 are priced at 5/1 to place reducing the likely candidates to 3 horses only
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