I think I am far too cautious with heavy ground - is the heavy ground factored into the prices? Neil Harvey actually won and in certain circumstances I think prices may include the horses' chances in heavy
130 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 La Fortalesa, 3/1 River Ardeche, 11/2 Elk Trail, Harrison´s Star, 13/2 Amir Pasha, 8/1 Victorias, 16/1 Bonny Bright Eyes, 20/1 Mardood, 33/1 Actabou, Zaurel, 66/1 Born To Frill.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Amir Pasha's debut effort entitles him to respect on adjusted RPR but he completely failed to confirm that on softer ground next time. La Fortalesa enters calculations but it would be no surprise to see recent Flat winner RIVER ARDECHE step up plenty on his previous hurdling form |
soft ground and 2 market movers in River Ardeche and Zaurel into 14/1. The former would be of interest from a place only perspective 1.46 to place
140 LING
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak-looking maiden. Interesting to see what the market makes of Key Regard, but BOMBER BROWN is much better than he was able to show on his recent debut here and looks the one to beat |
7 horse race here -3 clear outsiders leaving 4 fighting out 2 places with one stronjg market leader
CAUTION - maiden 1.31 place
235 CATTERICK would have been of interest with Minella Boys were it not for 2 16/1 type system bets (see if you can figure them out) - if these latter 2 give their running they could concievably knock Minella Boys out of the placings
245 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Woolston Ferry, 4/1 My Sweet Georgia, 6/1 Cognac Boy, 7/1 Art Fund, 8/1 Spinight, 20/1 Cwmni, Nun Today, Wickedly Fast, 33/1 Patience Rewarded.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see if the market expects the re-equipping of blinkers to prove the key to My Sweet Georgia, but the return to this trip will suit WOOLSTON FERRY (nap) who shaped encouragingly after a break in a Wolverhampton handicap on Sunday and has a good deal in hand according to adjusted BHA figures |
Class 6 claimer - can we trust the market leader who has a hint of the price gapper about him 1.24 to place
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Harry Up, 15/8 Blue Tomato, 4/1 Albero Di Giuda, 12/1 Bluebok, 16/1 Honest Value, 25/1 Bahamarama, 66/1 Briery Blaze,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If Harry Up is left alone up front then he will be hard to peg back but BLUE TOMATO has more ability than most who run in this grade and can go well fresh so may be able to pick him up in the closing stages. Any money for the ex-Italian Albero Di Giuda would look significant. |
8 runners originally down to 6 now - still 3 the place on BETFAIR?1.09 to place Blue TOmato is 1.17
if so then Harry Up remains strong at the head of the market
ONE A DAY
Tricky day today for me with some very poor race types and Harry Up, an obvious candidate, at a very crap price - chance perhaps on Blue Tomato at the higher price given 3 to place - my decision will be made nearer the off
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