15/1

Nice place bets in a messy day yesterday
I hope any enhanced betting fans got on Chelsea after they went a goal down at Southend yesterday! Far bigger odds than the 1.25 offered at the off in a game they really HAD to win what with everything recently

110 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Sun Quest, 9/2 Saoirse´s Chestnut, 6/1 Mad Professor, Supsonic, 15/2 L´Eau Du Nil, 10/1 Nils Anderson, 20/1 Danish Monarch, Nota Liberata, Thethirdoftheforth, 25/1 Dee Cee Elle, Peaceful Means, 33/1 Very Green, 50/1 Gilded Youth, 66/1 Rocket Pocket.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent seller with nine runners having an official mark of 100 or greater. SUN QUEST took a long time to get off the mark but clicked at the first time of asking for his new yard and can follow up, possibly at the main expense of Mad Professor.[

Not really a price gapper but a move into 6/4 for Sun Quest might be telling. BUT this is a seller - 1.41 to place

130 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Jordi Roper, 5/1 Afton View, 11/2 Hurricane Coast, 6/1 High Five Society, 9/1 General Tufto, 10/1 Top Jaro, 12/1 Casablanca Minx, 25/1 Doctor Delta, 33/1 Alloro, Final Bid, Super King.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: High Five Society might be a difficult to pass if getting clear in front but as things stand recent winner JORDI ROPER makes most appeal. His stable companion Afton View has previous here and could be the one to follow him home ahead of Hurricane Coast

Price gapper but an apprentice hands and heels handicap on the all weather - Oh God what have I done to you to deserve this? One to swerve!

135 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Layde Back, 9/4 Fairwood Bob, 8/1 Inistioge, 10/1 College Daisy, 12/1 Outlaw Kid, 14/1 Askmeroe, Knockalt, Ptolomeos, 16/1 Pavo, 20/1 Amber Knight, Loughaderra Dame, Minnie Wyse, Shoot For Home, The Real Rupee, 25/1 Jimmy Maguire.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LAYDE BACK is hard to assess on the evidence of a single start, though it is certainly encouraging that he proved too good for his only serious market-rival Ball Of Blue when favourite for a 2m2f bumper here last month. The decision to send the Flemensfirth straight over hurdles implies that there are many better bumper horses in the yard, but also reflects the fact that he is considered more of a jumping type, with his trainer reportedly planning to send him over fences next season.\n

Can Ruby and Mullins be trusted on this (now) odds on shot who is a hrdles debutant in a race where only 3 are sub 12/1 - 1.18 to place

140 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Khyber Kim, 3/1 The Package, 7/2 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Double The Trouble, Iffy, 14/1 Cornas, Overclear, 20/1 Idarah, Mizen Raven, 33/1 Qualypso D´Allier, 40/1 Baskerville, 50/1 One Of The Boys.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Khyber Kim, with 9lb in hand on official hurdles ratings, is the obvious starting point but the stable form remains a cause for concern and he is taken on with ISN'T THAT LUCKY, who has the advantage of chasing experience.[

The Package is the mover here - 3 runners sub 12/1 but a potential mover in Idarah into 12/1 - 1.49 for the package to place shows this is a difficult race - I have said before that I am always wary about prices on or around 1.50 for horses who have been backed in the win only market - maybe I'm just being cautious ( too cautious?)

150 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Eradicate, 4/1 My Moment, 7/1 Prince Sabaah, Yetholm, 10/1 Latin Scholar, 16/1 Calaas, High Carol, Spanish Conquest, 33/1 High Bray, Jeffison, Sadler´s Star, 100/1 Master Cobbler, Willie Warson,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: My Moment sets a fair standard on his hurdling form and must be respected, but he may struggle to successfully give weight to classy Flat recruit ERADICATE, who's sure to be well schooled by his top yard for this eagerly anticipated switch to hurdles

5 horses under 25/1 and no coincidence that we see McCoy/Henderson ; Thornton/King; Johnson/Hobbs ; and Sam Thomas for Venetia Williams amongst these.
Eradicate now odds on in this novices hurdle in what hopefully will be a 5 horse race
Eradicate 1.21 to place and My Moment 1.62 to place - the only 2 horses under evens in the place only market. Note of caution that,as said, Eradicate is a debutant and we are taking it on faith that Nicky HEnderson has prepared the horse and McCoy will do his usual sterling work in the saddle

205 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Otay Kawn, 8/1 Darceys Dancer, 10/1 Fly Home Cassy, My Fella, 12/1 Stella Matutina, 14/1 Corbetstown Star, Gougane, 16/1 Gleaming Light, Mary´s Little Vic, 20/1 On Annies Accord, 33/1 Brittas Gal, Missys Dream, Montys Mate, Morganconnaughtboy, Present A Star.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OTAY KAWN, a winner and twice placed from three starts in bumpers, appears to have been drawn in the weakest of the three heats and should be equal to the task. Successful in a summer bumper at Ballinrobe, the Soviet Star gelding was third behind smart performers Caim Hill and Frascati Park at Galway, and made a satisfactory introduction to hurdling when third behind Oscar Looby and the talented Zaarito at Navan. He is dropped in class and trip following a fair sixth to Corskeagh Royale over 2m4f at Leopardstown.\n

Right guy on board for a shortie - big price gap .My Fella the early mover 1.11 to place and backed in the win market. Ruby the pilot here

220 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Baseball Ted, 9/2 Michigan D´Isop, 11/2 Oscar Jack, 10/1 Most Definitely, 12/1 Safari Adventures, 14/1 Mister Tibus, Sandy´s Legend, 16/1 Prince De Lacour, 20/1 Diego Velasquez, Run Of Kings, Thebelloftheball, 25/1 Lord Lieutenant, 33/1 Tom Fontenailles.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BASEBALL TED is going the right way as a chaser and could well prove hard to catch at this level. Oscar Jack and Michigan D'Isop complete the shortlist.[

3 sub 12/1 here in the live market and BAseball Ted holds steady at the head of the market 1.43 to place in an illiquid market

250 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Busker Royal, 9/4 Chariot Charger, 11/2 Paddys Honour, 13/2 Big Eared Fran, 10/1 Good Man Jack, 25/1 Beat The System, Coup De Tabac, Lord Tomnoddy, 33/1 Sona Sasta, Waldo Pepper, 50/1 Anay Turge, 66/1 Beyond Moonbeams, Thompson, 100/1 Pine Native.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Big Eared Fran and Paddys Honour are interesting but the two previous hurdling winners set a strong standard and this may lie between them. Preference is for BUSKER ROYAL, whose handicap form looks solid.[

Only 4 horses in the live market are under 25/1! 1.16 the fav and 1.34 the Charger to place. The place market has 8 horses at 18 (17/1) or bigger!

Has the look of a probability race about it

NAD AL SHEEBA

High quality animals and NO OBSTACLES TO JUMP OVER (hooray!)
420
BETTING FORECAST: Evs India Tiberina, 5/4 Sos Brillante, 10/1 Esta Bailando, 14/1 Jargelle, 33/1 Purple Sage, 66/1 Ever Loved.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mike de Kock and Saeed Bin Suroor have been the most successful trainers at previous Carnivals and lock horns at an early stage with very similar types in INDIA TIBERINA and Sos Brillante, both impressive debut winners in Chile last March. Bin Suroor has a fine UAE record with fillies of the Classic generation but the trainer has already stated that this could come a bit soon so that tips things in favour of India Tiberina who, in the words of her trainer, "could be absolutely anything".

A 2 horse race on paper here and the market will certainly pin point the better fancied of the 2. At this stage if looking for a place only selection I would side with India Tiberina based on Spotlight's comments 1.25 to place in a market yet to fully form

The only other race with potential is the 605 with Royal Vintage a hinted at price gapper bt not reflecting that in the live market, out to 3/1 from 9/4 betting forecast price

820 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ivory Silk, 5/2 Wotashirtfull, 7/1 Fromsong, 8/1 First Order, 12/1 Almaty Express, 14/1 Know No Fear, Silver Prelude, 20/1 Storey Hill.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of trailblazers will ensure they go a good pace from the off and this can set the race up for strong finisher IVORY SILK (nap), who's proven over C&D and comes here in peak form. Wotashirtfull rates the biggest threat.[

4th fav a non runner should make life easier in what was a dead 8 race and will hopeflly still be a 3 the place race on Betfair
A 5 furlong handicap means we have to be spot on - the fav has won twice but looks priced still to be competitive
1.25 and 1.39 for the front 2 and still 3 the place. I would not make any judgements just yet with the race some 9 hours away!

ONE A DAY

Lots of relatively big fields over obstacles today with apparent good things heading the market

150 TAUNTON - Eradicate 1.21 to place is a possible - right jock on board but a debutant over race hurdles

205 THURLES - Otay Kawn - 1.11 to place and well backed in the win only market - down in class and trip and good consistent previous form, Ruby rides and an obvious contender

250 TAUNTON -only 4 horses under 20/1 in the live market and Busker Royal is at evens and 1.16

I am happy to risk Eradicate given his very useful flat form which, if coupled with adequate jumping, should leave these and ensure a place in a race where only he and My Moment are under 10/1 ; 6 are 50/1 or bigger. Slight niggle that he has no race experience over jumps. One for me to trade in running today I think. If McCoy gets him inot a rhythm I can green up as the place only price hoepfully shortens.

Those unconvinced or unwilling to back a debutant hurdler can consider either of the others I wold suggest in this one's stead.