Friday 16 January 2009

16/1

All 3 placed yesterday as expected

1220 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Samurai Warrior, 5/1 I Certainly May, 6/1 King Of The Beers, Mix N Match, 9/1 Itsawindup, 10/1 Tenement, Touch Of Style, 14/1 Fairly Honest, Lunar Limelight, Rampant Ronnie, 25/1 Farsighted.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these are poor maidens and in the case of some, that first success is likely to elude them forever. SAMURAI WARRIOR does at least come here on the back of a win (off this mark) and is marginally preferred to Mix N Match
Does my theory regarding shorties in 0-65 races hold up? Not really a price gapper in the conventional sense if looking at the betting forecast but now 13/8 in the live amrket - thanks to svchost.exe slowing my computer this race has gone and Samurai placed

1250 LING
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ebert, 7/2 Rapid City, 8/1 Shouldntbethere, 12/1 Barodine, Poppy Red, 14/1 Flying Goose, 16/1 Roundthetwist, 33/1 Indiana Fox.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ebert stands out at the weights and even a repeat of his latest claiming-race third would be good enough, but he has been an expensive horse to follow and perhaps RAPID CITY can bounce back from his latest disappointing run and land his fourth course win
1.27, 1.49 and 1.93 for the front 2 and BArodine

Poor race but the straight 8(3 places) and Barodine a very interesting mover now at 11/2
Barodine and the front 2 dominate a poor seller here with obvious question marks regarding the principles - Rapid City backed but a poor run last time. Barodine must enter equation and will this race finish with the 3 named filling the first 3 spots?

110 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Osolomio, 5/1 Mephisto, 11/2 Pamak D´Airy, 6/1 Mount Sandel, Reel Charmer, 8/1 Quillan Hill, 10/1 Star Beat, 14/1 All For The Cause, Sa Suffit, 16/1 Dancer´s Serenade, 50/1 Bright Sparky, First Fought, 66/1 Fencote Mystery, 100/1 Braddock Island, Feeling Peckish, Johnny Harris.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several to consider and while Osolomio sets a reasonable standard, it might be worth chancing that REEL CHARMER takes to chasing at the first time of asking

Dancers serendae 2nd fav at 6/1 ( check out the betting forecast price) -Osolomio shortening and backed but a big field here and a beginners chase 1.54 and 2.56

130 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 King Fontaine, 6/1 Baren De Doc, 10/1 Normally, 12/1 Blue Dark, Mr Mackay, Radmores Revenge, 14/1 Durante, 16/1 More The Merrier, 25/1 Claras Chestnut, 33/1 Celian, 100/1 Ariodante, Finmere, Junior Jimble.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The weaker division and a race which may well prove within the grasp of KING FONTAINE, who shaped well on his hurdling debut here in November. Radmores Revenge may be the best each-way alternative.

Ruby take the Ryanair across the pond for his English Bossman and the fav is now 4/9 with a big price gap to the rest headed by McCoy and Thornton/King

3 miles on soft and a maiden hrdle are the negatives but this is some price move for the fav 1.13 to place

140 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Argento Luna, 6/1 Mount Benger, 7/1 Quick Will, 15/2 Pay Attention, 9/1 Mcgruders Cross, 12/1 King Daniel, Pertemps Networks, 14/1 Greenbelt, 16/1 Front Rank, Lazy Darren, Motive, Risk Runner, 20/1 Flake, 25/1 Sharp Rigging, 33/1 Newman Des Plages, 40/1 Borouj, Robin De Sherwood.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mount Benger will do well to defy top weight and this may offer the chance for ARGENTO LUNA (nap) to capitalise on her solid first attempt in handicaps last month. King Daniel could be a fly in the ointment

Mount Benger is priced for his winning streak to end today and Argento Luna is p[riced now at 2/1 to take advantage 1.42 to place

150 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mutamared, 9/2 Parisian Gift, 5/1 One More Round, 6/1 Don Pele, 10/1 Interactive, Tender Process, 12/1 Lord Deevert, 33/1 Teen Ager, 50/1 Faintly Hopeful.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Parisian Gift having something to prove for now, this looks booked for the in-form MUTAMARED (nap) who is really potent force in this company and his penultimate defeat of Desert Dreamer looks solid in this field.

A poor claimer
8 run now with 2 outsiders and a well backed market leader 1.22 to place

200 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Dontpaytheferryman, 7/2 Elbistan, Perlon, 7/1 Sherbet Lemon, 10/1 Ericarrow, 12/1 Monkhair, 16/1 Miss Phoebe, 33/1 Slayer, 40/1 Emerald Crystal, Honest Yankee.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dontpaytheferryman and Elbistan are closely matched on Ludlow form and look leading players at the weights but the verdict goes to PERLON, who was pitched in pretty highly in Starluck's race at Kempton on his British debut and is already proven on forecast soft ground.

Elbistan is a non runner - does this leave Dontpay and Perlon open to take advantage? They are priced too at least 1.42 and 1.36 for these 2 to place

220 lING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sea Cliff, 5/1 Colourful Move, 7/1 Dramatic Solo, Irish Ballad, 14/1 Fateful Attraction, Pseudonym, Restart, 16/1 Cellarmaster, 33/1 Drombeg Pride.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SEA CLIFF opened his Flat account in some style on Tuesday and, with stamina assured, is a likely candidate to quickly follow up shouldering a penalty

Price gapper - slightly weaker in the live market and I don't like 2 miler middle distance races -1.37 to place

235 CHEP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Raffaello, 11/4 Hills Of Aran, 100/30 Tank Top, 11/2 The Cool Guy, 16/1 Carnival Town, 33/1 Scobie Nail, 50/1 Catch N Drive, Miss Fleur, Premier Bleu.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Raffaello is likely to be popular despite the lengthy absence and the fact that he has not raced much beyond 2m4f, and there are reservations about Hills Of Aran and The Cool Guy. TANK TOP (nap), who put past misadventures over fences behind him with a solid second at Newbury, could be the answer

4 sub 16/1 and all the big boys featured amongst those 4 - no market movers among the rest
Raff 1.54
Hills 1.48
Tank 1.46
Big prices to be honest here

255 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 I Confess, 6/1 Strabinios King, 8/1 Everybody Knows, Royal Island, The Cayterers, Tous Les Deux, Trafalgar Square, 12/1 Princess Rose Anne, 14/1 Royal Envoy, Super Frank, 16/1 Cornus, 20/1 Miss Mujanna, 25/1 Shakespeare´s Son.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: I Confess ran a blinder here last time given he chased the fierce pace and if he is ridden with a bit more restraint, he should go well. There does look to be a bit of pace on here though and this could be run to suit the hold-up horses, notably The Cayterers and TOUS LES DEUX. The former has been nurtured back to form by Tony Carroll but the latter wasn't really suited by leading last time and a strongly run race at this trip should be no problem.

Strabinios King a market mover into 5/2 could be significant -1.77 to place

405 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Broughtons Flight, 4/1 Chalice Welcome, 6/1 Alberts Story, Play Up Pompey, 10/1 Historical Giant, Tabulate, The Little Master, 14/1 Darley Star, 16/1 Pajada, 33/1 Huck Finn.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Broughtons Flight returned to form at Great Leighs last time and a big run from Samurai Warrior in the opener would be a boost for her chances. ALBERTS STORY ran well over hurdles at Musselburgh on his penultimate start though and looks to have been found a suitable opportunity here

Historical Giant now 9/4 fav!! 1.52 to place or are the bookies lulling us in?

ONE A DAY
130 CHEP - Kings Fontaine - despite the 3 miles, the soft ground and the maiden hrdle status, the price gap in the live market is very eyecatching and 1.13 is reasonable enough for Walsh and Nicholls. Should the horse stay upright he has a chance of placing

140 CATT - Argento Luna is 1.43 to place - 4 to place - has been extremely well supported and the form stands up. Mount Benger priced not to win today. Big field and soft ground a negative

150 LING - Mutamarred - 1.22 to place. Interestingly SPencer came 3rd on him in between the others winning on him. CAn Frankie be trusted to steer this one into a place at least - Hmmmmm BEtty!

200 CHEPSTOW - Dont pay and PErlon share favouratism with the close rival a non runner

I will chance Argento Luna at the bigger odds today -4 to place with the caveat to monitor in running in the place market. One a day bet and go would probably be Mutamarred at the prices

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