Friday 2 January 2009

2/1

Job done yesterday

100 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Mistress To No One, 4/1 Ruby Crown, 8/1 Snake Skin, 10/1 Craughwell Suas, Shipboard Romance, 12/1 Definitely It, Rinnwood Lass, 16/1 Bailey France, Harveys Spirit, Reasontobecheerful, Tyrana, 20/1 Monkhair, 25/1 Poppy Gregg, 33/1 Pomander, Red, Romney Marsh.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MISTRESS TO NO ONE remains one to keep on the right side despite her big weight and gets the vote. Ruby Crown, Craughwell Suas and Snake Skin are also worth considering.[

Fav a non runner and Ruby Crown is now 7/4 and being backed. 2.88 / 1.36

135 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Quartano, 3/1 Padalko, 6/1 Fix The Rib, 14/1 Narlen, 20/1 Midnight Haze, 66/1 Saddlers Blaze, 100/1 Frenchie Frenchie, Gypsy Bob.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUARTANO showed a useful level of form over hurdles and has been found an ideal opening to launch his chasing career. It will be hugely disappointing should he fail to make the most of it.[AWJ]

Midnight Haze a non runner but Betfair should still pay out 3 the place. Nice price gapper here, Saddlers Blaze onwards can hopfully be discounted from any serious involvement leaving Quartano to realsitically beat 1 to place IF it's the first 3 on BEtfair
Concern over 10 month absence and SPotlight mentions the cheekpieces may hint at a temperament issue. Still, 1/2 , if he stays and does not fall, he should get involved at the business end 1.54 / 1.12 ( place market forces not apparent as I write - 1.12 looks a false price) - still 3 the place
145 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Euroceleb, 13/8 El Diego, 9/2 Wing Stealth, 16/1 Auction Belle, Tampa Boy, 20/1 Tivers Song, 33/1 Stockman, 50/1 Our Nations, 66/1 Whiston Pat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many that can be fancied. Although EL DIEGO was just behind Euroceleb at Lingfield in November, that was his first run for over a year, he has since run well on this surface and displays a much more straightforward attitude than the Morrison filly.

Great probability race if it weren't for the fact this is a middle distance maiden. That said, there are no significant market moves outside of the principles and it is El Diego who has been promoted to fav in the live market. I do usually let the money make my decisions for me in races like this. 1.15 for El Diego

205 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Aux Le Bahnn, 11/2 Blistering, 7/1 Erin´s Own, 10/1 Chico Time, Kingston Lane, Perkin Warbeck, 20/1 Champage A Gogo, Prey Bird, 33/1 Hector Barbossa, Outlaw Tom, 66/1 Bally Sands, Esturgeon Du Ranch, Patrixbourne, 100/1 Jack Harbour, Missus Jones, The Little Chancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AUX LE BAHNN (nap) should have another of these races in him and he is preferred to Erin's Own and Blistering. Perkin Warbeck is open to improvement as a hurdler and looks best of the others

Blistering now 7/2 in the live amrket and represents the excellent Thornton/King combination. Long distance novice hurdle 1.16 for Aux le Bahn and 1.62 for BListering

215 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Clear Sailing, 9/4 Boundless Prospect, 7/2 Blue Sky Thinking, 12/1 Transmission, 25/1 High Five Society, 33/1 Pembo, 50/1 Redeemed, Shortwall Lady, 66/1 Shadow Jumper, 100/1 I´m Agenius, 200/1 Mays Louise.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very little strength in depth. A 12lb pull entitles Boundless Prospect to get a lot closer to CLEAR SAILING than he did in a similar C&D event last time and this pair hold the most solid credentials, with Blue Sky Thinking having to prove himself on this surface

A 4 horse race? A claimer and I really don't like these but ,that aside, the market tells us it's between 4 ,Clear Sailing is odds on and Transmission is the each way option it would seem at 8/1
1.15 - Clear Sailing
1.32 - Boundless Prospect


ONE A DAY
135 FOLKSTONE - all boxes look to be ticked with this race -8 runner field down to 7 runners and still paying out 3 the place.
2 horses are as high as 80/1. Interesting that Frenchie Frenchie is 25/1 from 100/1 quoted (non runner at 20/1 would not have impacted prices that much)
Looks an ideal raceapart from the fact its a maiden chase, Quartano has an absence and the cheekpieces are on.
145 SOUTHWELL
El DIego looks to have been backed in a race whose profile for place only purposes is strong. Again ,being a stickler, the fact it is a maiden is not ideal to me but the horse has run on the surface, is one of 3 sub 16/1, and the money has come
215 STHL - another race in a similar vein to the above 2 with 4 horses sub 25/1 . BAck the fav in the place only market. HE should secure a place all being equal

Quartano my selection today. If he stays on his feet he should place

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