SATURDAY
12pm - Eintracht Frankfurt v Karlsruhe - 1.3 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 09.01.2010 | CF | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0-3 | Karlsruher SC | |
| 21.02.2009 | D1 | Karlsruher SC | 0-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
| 22.10.2008 | D1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-1 | Karlsruher SC |
no real recent relevant head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 16th after 16 matches. 3 points behind top place.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Frank
RECENT HOME FORM - DDDWWWW - draws against 1st, 3rd and 5th and have scored 4 in each match against 15th and 17th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDWWWWWDWWL - sole loss this season against 6th placed away.
GOAL TRENDS - have scored 3-4-4-4-1 against bottom 6 home and away. 57% overs. Have scored a whopping 15 goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches - 8 overs in last 10 matches, 9 of which successful over 2.5 goals. Have only failed to score in 1 match this season.
STREAKS - -4 match winning streak at home, 7 at home without defeat.HAve scored in the last 10 and conceded in last 4
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Karlsruher
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLDLLL - sole win against 11th away. Conceded 4 against top ( that number 4 again!) Have lost against all of the top 10 they have played away this season.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDDLDLWLL - most recent win, 3-2, came against bottom of the league.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs/unders - 3 of the last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. 4/5 matches home and away against top 5 were over 2.5 goals, the exception a 2-o loss. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - 6 away without a win, 4 overall without a draw.Have conceded in the last 6 away matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 2nd v 16th.
FRANKFURT - unbeaten at home. Draws against 1st/3rd/5th, sole loss overall v 6th away.
KARLSRUHE - sole win away v 11th. Have lost against all of the top 10 home and away. 6 away without a win
GOALS - Frankfurt have scored 4 against 15th and 17th, and scored 3-4-4-4-1 against bottom 6.57% overs and 8 of last 10 overs. Failed to score in only 1 match this season. 50/50 overs for Karlsruhe .4 of their 5 matches against top 5 have been overs.
CONCLUSION - home side could score 3/4 today as they have done against 15th and 17th and bottom 6. 4/5 matches Karlsruhe have played against top 5 have been over 2.5 goals. reactive traders - if 0-0 late on, remember Frankfurt have failed to score in only 1 match this season.
12pm - G Furth v H Rostock - 1.4 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 27.02.2010 | D2 | Greuther Fürth | 1-0 | Hansa Rostock | |
| 27.09.2009 | D2 | Hansa Rostock | 4-0 | Greuther Fürth | |
| 09.04.2009 | D2 | Greuther Fürth | 0-1 | Hansa Rostock |
No 2011 head to heads and a massive anomoly between 2 1-0's shared by both sides. Inconclusive head to heads therefore.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 17th after 16 matches, and a very tight top of the league which means even 4th placed are within touching distance of top.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - G Furth
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWWLW - excellent home record with losses against 1st and 7th -have scored 4 and 3 without reply against bottom 5 sides at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWDWWLDWL - only 1 win in the last 4. Losses have come against 1st, 2nd and 7th.
GOAL TRENDS - 62% overs at home. 5 of the wins at home without conceding. Last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Failed to score in only 1 match this season. Scored in all home matches.
STREAKS - 8 at home without a draw.Have scored in the last 8 matches at home and last 8 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - H Rostock
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDLLLLD - no win away.Have lost to 1st and 2nd away from home. Draws against 10th, 13th and 14th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDLDLDLWLDDLL - only one win this season came against 6th at home. Have played 4 of the top 5 home and away and lost all 4 conceding 2-4-3-2 and scoring in 3 of the matches.
GOAL TRENDS - -29% overs away from home. Only 5 matches all season over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in the last 3 away matches.
STREAKS - 5 overall without a win, 7 away. NO goal scored in 3 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 4th v 17th
G Furth - No draw at home. Lost at home v 1st and 7th. Have scored 4 and 3 without conceding against bottom 5.Losses have come against 1st,2nd, 7th. Only have 1 win in last 4
ROSTOCK - no win away. Lost v 1st and 2nd and playing 4th today. Only 1 win this season v 6th at home. have played 4 of the top 5 home and away and lost all 4 conceding 2-4-3-2 and scoring in 3.
GOALS - 62% overs for Furth, 5 home wins were to nil. Furth have failed to score in only 1 match this season and have scored in all home matches. Furth have scored in the last 8 at home and last 8 overall. Only 29% overs away from home for ROSTOCK. They have failed to score in 3 away.
CONCLUSION - Only 1 win this season for away side makes them opposable. Have conceded 2-4-3-2 against 4 of the top home and away, and scored in 3 of those, so perhaps we can go with overs here despite the poor 29% trend for Rostock. 5 home wins to nil for Furth could have speculators looking at the 2-0, 3-0, 4-0?
1245pm - Newcastle v Chelsea - 2.1 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 15.05.2011 | PR | Chelsea FC | 2-2 | Newcastle Utd | |
| 28.11.2010 | PR | Newcastle Utd | 1-1 | Chelsea FC | |
| 22.09.2010 | LC | Chelsea FC | 3-4 | Newcastle Utd | |
| 04.04.2009 | PR | Newcastle Utd | 0-2 | Chelsea FC |
Again, pre transfer window so head to heads must be taken with a pinch of salt.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 5th after 13 matches. And poor old Mr Villa " Oh, Arse!" might be saying " oh, arse! " again?
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Newcastle
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDWW - great home form. 81st minute win v Wigan uninspiring as was the 86th minute home equaliser v Spurs. A feeling this unbeaten home run is hanging on by the skin of its teeth. Have only played Spurs of the top 6 at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWWDWWWLD - any coincidence that on meeting top 5, Newcastle are getting no change! Losses against City and draws against United and Spurs. This hints that Newcastle may be layable against traditional top 5 sides ( City/United/Liverpool/Chelsea/Arsenal).
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home but remember that they have only played one of top 5 at home.
6 of the last 8 over 2.5 goals. 4 draws and a loss against top 8 home and away. 5 of the wins have come against bottom 6. Have only conceded 1 goal in the first half an hour.
STREAKS - 2 match home winning run. No defeat in 6 at home. Have scored in the last 5 at home and last 9 overall.Have conceded in the last 4 overall. Newcastle have conceded in 4 of the last 5 -they kept a clean sheet against Wigan, as my Sunday league team did recently.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Chelsea
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWLWLW - poor form for Chelsea.Losses against united and QPR. And 3 wins, against bottom 5 away. Unimpressive away wins therefore.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWWLWLW - no draw recently. Only draw this season was against 1st team of the season. Chelsea have played 3 of the top 7 and lost the lot.
GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs away from home. 10 of the last 12 matches over 2.5 goal.s
STREAKS - no draw in last 12. Have scored in the last 4 overall
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - you must check team news yourself. Any big absentees in key positions could affect the match ( for Newcastle I would see Demba Ba as a big miss)
I dismiss the head to heads as pre transfer market head to heads. This is 4th v 5th
NEWC - unbeaten at home. Have only played Spurs of the top 6 though 81st min win v Wigan and 86th min equaliser v Spurs see geordies hanging on to home unbeaten run by their coattails. When they have met the top 5, they lost to City and were lucky to draw v Spurs. 4 draws and a loss for Newc v top 8 home and away. 5 wins have come against the bottom 6.
CHELSEA - Villa Bow Arse has twitchy arse. Losses away v United and QPR. 3 wins v Bottom 5 away hardly inspire. No recent draw overall, 1 draw came v 1st team of the season. Have lost v 3 of the top 7.No draw in last 12 for Chelsea.
GOALS - 67% overs for Newc at home. 6 of last 8 overs.Newcastle have only conceded 1 goal in the last half hour.Newc have scored in last 5 at home and last 9 overall and conceded in last 4. 50% overs away from home. 10 of Chelsea's last 12 matches were over 2.5 goals.
CONCLUSIONS - many angles in - Newcastle may be vulnerable against top 6 - lay them? But Chelsea lost 3 v top 7 - lay them! Only 1 draw for Chelsea this season - lay the draw? A tough match to call, and we must note that Newcastle meeting established top sides have lost 2 latest. Both sides have a recent run of over 2.5 goals matches but remember they have largely been playing other than top 6/7 teams.
230pm - B Munich v W Bremen - 1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 29.01.2011 | D1 | Werder Bremen | 1-3 | Bayern München | |
| 26.10.2010 | Cup | Bayern München | 2-1 | Werder Bremen | |
| 11.09.2010 | D1 | Bayern München | 0-0 | Werder Bremen | |
| 15.05.2010 | Cup | Werder Bremen | 0-4 | Bayern München | |
| 23.01.2010 | D1 | Werder Bremen | 2-3 | Bayern München |
4 of the last 5 head to heads overs as is the case with Werder.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 4th after 14 matches - surprise to see Bayern 3rd and Werder 4th. 1st only has 29 points and Bayern are a point behind.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bayern
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWWL - losses have come against 1st and 2nd in the league, both 0-1. All other wins v 6th and lower without conceding and scoring 3 min, in each match.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDWLWWLL - recent losses v Dortmund and Mainz, the latter particularly shocking. But Bayern did score 2 as I predicted ( although I thought they would win with 2 scored!) - only 1 draw this season.
GOAL TRENDS - -71% overs at home. 5 of the last 6 overs. Have only failed to score in 3 matches this season, 2 of which were against 1st and 2nd.
STREAKS - 6 overall without a draw, 7 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Werder
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLDWL - inconsistent Werder away.Only losses away against 2nd, 6th and 8th
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWLLDWWLW - 3 wins in last 4 impressive but 2 of them at home. All wins have come against 7th and lower.
GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs away from home. Have scored 9 in last 1/4 hour in matches. Have conceded in all away matches.
STREAKS - have conceded in last 7 away.Have not drawn in last 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I must immediately mention the Mainz game - centimetres from 3-3 -I saw the game. A 3rd consecutive loss for Bayern will not be tolerated.
BAYERN - losses at home have come v 1st and 2nd, both 0-1 . Wins have come v 6th and below, scoring 3 minimum and to nil. Werder are in no mans land in 4th. Only 1 draw this season for BAyern. 6 matches without a draw
WERDER - inconsistent . Losses v 2nd /6th.8th away.3 wins in last 4, 2 at home. Wins v 7th and lower.
GOALS - 71% overs for Bayern. 5 of last 6 overs. Failed to score in only 3 this season ( 2 against top 2). 57% overs for Werder, and have conceded in all away matches.
CONCLUSION - it is very rare you will see Bayern losing 3 consecutive matches, and this could ensure the win this afternoon. Werder have lost 3 away v top 8, and all of their wins have come against 7th and worse. Werder against the right opponents are nailed on overs and this might be an angle in. 3-1 and 2-1 in head to heads could be goers for value correct score seekers? Over 3.5 goals might enhance odds for goal trends followers?
230pm - Mgladbach v Dortmund - 2.16 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 23.04.2011 | D1 | Mönchengladbach | 1-0 | Borussia Dortmund | |
| 27.11.2010 | D1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4-1 | Mönchengladbach | |
| 06.03.2010 | D1 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 | Mönchengladbach | |
| 06.01.2010 | CF | Borussia Dortmund | 0-2 | Mönchengladbach |
in the form Dortmund have been in, 2.16 seems very big.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 1st - but it seems that this Mgladbach is a different side this season. Both top, both on 29 points.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Mgladbach
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWDWWW - unbeaten at home. Draws have come against 6th and 7th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLDLWWWW - 3 losses away against 5th, 9th and 17th all 1-0.
GOAL TRENDS - -57% overs at home.Have scored in all home matches. 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Mgladbach have kept a clean sheet in last 2.
STREAKS - 2 match home winning streak, 4 overall. No defeat in 7 at home. Have scored in the last 7 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Dortmund
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLWWDW - draws away to 6th and 7th, losses v 8th and 9th. Wins against 3rd and 4th away without conceding. Interesting and inconsistent away form.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWWWWDWWW - 7 wins in last 8 matches. Last 2 away wins were against Bayern and Werder Bremen.
GOAL TRENDS - 5 clean sheets in last 7. Have only failed to score in 2 matches this season.29% overs away from home. 3 clean sheets against top 6 away. 3 wins against top 5 overall without conceding. Have only conceded 3 goals in the first half all season.
STREAKS - 3 match winning streak overall.No defeat in 8 overall. HAve scored in the last 5 away, and last 10 overall. Clean sheet in the last 2.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is 2nd v 1st
MGLADBACH - unbeaten at home. Draws have come against 6th/7th -3 losses have all been away and all 1-0.
DORTMUND - draws away v 6th and 7th similar to Mgladbach. Losses v 8th and 9th. Wins v 3rd and 4th to nil make Dortmund away a tad unpredictable.
But overall Dortmund have won 7 of their last 8 matches. Dortmund are undefeated in 8 and have scored in their last 10
GOALS - Mgladbach - 57% overs and have scored in all at home - 5 of their last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals and they have kept a clean sheet in their last 2. 29% overs for Dortmund away and they have kept an amazing 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches and 3 clean sheets against top 6 sides away - 3 wins for Dortmund against top 5 were to nil. Dortmund have conceded only 3 goals in the first half all season.
CONCLUSION - my angle here? Dortmund conceding only 3 in the first half all season. Lay Mgladbach in the first half therefore and hope that Dortmund open the scoring? Goal trends are difficult to read here.Dortmund have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 7 which can help us with that initial lay of Mgladbach.
Warning - Mgladbach are not top for no reason, so this is speculative. If Dortmund win this match it is likely to be to nil, so value seekers look for a low scoring win to nil if you fancy Dortmund.
0-0 could be a value start as Mgladbach have kept a clean sheet in their last 2, and Dortmund in 5 of their last 7.
3pm - Blackburn v Swansea - 2.24 home
HEAD TO HEADS no head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 20th v 13th after 13 matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Blackburn - bottom of the league.
RECENT HOME FORM - LLWLLL - sole win all season against Arsenal and thanks to Arsenal.3 losses have come against the current top 5 -can we make an argument that Blackburn have had a tough start to the season? Tenuous yes! Have not played current 10th to 16th at home .
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWLLLLDLDLDL - draws, all score draws have come away from home against 10th and lower.Have only played 2 teams who have been promoted away and score drawn both matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 70% overall this season down mostly to concession. 7 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all matches this season.
STREAKS - 8 overall without a win. Have conceded in last 13 all season.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Swansea
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLDD - no win away for Swansea. Draws have come against 6th and 17th. Losses v 1st, 5th, 7th and 10th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWLDWDLD - inconsistent this season. 3 wins and 2 draws home and away against bottom 9. Note only one of those matches was an away match. All losses against top 10.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs away from home. 2 0-0's and a 0-1 in last 3 matches. Swansea have failed to score in last 3.
STREAKS - 6 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - again the onus is on you to look for team news. I cannot as the workload means I have to start this on thursday!!
No head to heads could allow an element of unpredictability here.
BLACKBURN - sole win v Arsenal v lucky. 3 losses at home v top 5.
All draws for Blackburn have come away from home, and all score draws against 2 of the newly promoted sides they have played.
SWANSEA - no win away. Draws v 6th and 17th. 3 wins and 2 draws home and away against bottom 9 ( who they are playing today) - so unbeaten. All losses have come against top 10
GOALS - 70% overs at home. 7 of the last 9 matches over 2.5 goals, and Blackburn have conceded in all matches this season.67% overs for Swansea away mirrors Blackburn at home. BUT 2 0-0's and a 0-1 in last 3 matches and Swansea have failed to score in last 3.
Conclusions - I would have Swansea on my side initially I feel , but am concerned they have failed to score in last 3. BUT their record against bottom 9 is 3 wins and 2 draws, which makes Blackburn layable.
3pm - Doncaster v Southampton - 1.79 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 17.01.2009 | LCh | Southampton | 1-2 | Doncaster Rovers |
Not relevant
LEAGUE POSITION - 24th v 1st and that 1.79 looks huge with this in mind!
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Doncaster
RECENT HOME FORM - LLDWDLDLD - sole win at home 1-0 v 12th, Palace.3 of the losses against 2nd, 4th and 5th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWLLLDLWLDL - wins have come against 12th, 13th and 21st. Have played 7 matches home and away against top 9 and have lost all.
GOAL TRENDS - 22% overs at home down largely to 3 1-1 scorelines. Have only kept 2 clean sheets this season but conceded 2 or more in 6 of 7 matches against top 9 home and away.
STREAKS - no win in 5 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Southampton
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLDLDDWL - mixed bag away from home - all 3 losses this season came away and seem rather anomolous and high scoring. 2-1, 3-2, and 2-0 against Bristol City. That was a shock - they are 20th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLWDWDWWWWLW - superb recent form for Saints must count for something -3-2-4-3-0-2 scored in last 6 matches. Have scored 5-3-4 against bottom 4
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Saints only failed to score in that recent away loss against Bristol City. They have conceded 2 goals in each of the 3 wins home and away against bottom 4.
STREAKS - have conceded in the last 8 away. NO draw in 6 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -
DONCASTER - sole win came against 12th. 3 losses at home v 2nd/4th/5th could open up another defeat against top. Overall, Dons won against 12th/13th/21st. THey have played 7 matches home and away against top 9 and lost the lot
SAINTS - 3 losses came away from home and anomolous scorelines 2-1, 3-2, 2-0 , latterly against Bristol City of all teams.Saints have won 5 of their last 6 matches and scored 3-2-4-3-0-2 recently.Have scored 5-3-4 against bottom 4.
GOALS - 22% overs for Doncaster at home. Have , though, conceded 2 or more in 6 of 7 matches against the top 9 home and away.4/5 overs away from home for Saints.Interestingly Saints have conceded 2 goals in each of their 3 wins home and away against bottom 4. They have conceded in their last 8 away matches.
CONCLUSION - Doncaster look obviously opposable, and despite both teams' weak goal trends, the fact is Doncaster have conceded 2 or more in 6 of 7 matches against top 9 and Saints have scored 5-3-4 against bottom 4 and conceded 2 in each of their 3 wins home and away against bottom 4. So swim against the tide here and go over 3.5 goals? Speculative and could backfire, but maybe both sides can continue their vulnerability against top/bottom sides?
3pm - Man City v Norwich - 1.21 home
HEAD TO HEADS no recent relevant head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 10th after 13 matches. 5 points clear of United.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Man City
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWW - scored 3 in 3 matches, 4 in 2 matches at home. Have scored 2+ in all home matches
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDWWWWWWWD - draws against Fulham and Liverpool. The Fulham match should have been an easy win, 0-2 up at half time.
GOAL TRENDS - 83% overs at home. Obviously have scored in all matches this season. The everton match was not a successful over 2.5 goals trade but the recent 1-1 draw with Liverpool was.
STREAKS - 6 match home winning streak.No defeat in 13, have scored in last 13 and conceded in last 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Norwich
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLWLDL - only one win away was against 18th. Have played 4 of the top 8 away and lost 2-0, 3-1, 3-2 and drew 1-1 v Liverpool.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDLLWWLWDDLLW - all wins against teams lower than 10th currently , 3 of those wins coming at home. 4 losses and a draw home and away against top 8.
GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs away from home.5 of the last 6 matches over 2.5 goals, the exception, a 1-1 with Liverpool, was a successful over 2.5 goals match. Have generally conceded 2+ against top 8.
STREAKS - 3 away without a win.Have scored in the last 6 overall. Have conceded in the last 6 away and last 13 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Blue Moon, you saw me standing in goal, picking the ball out the net, for the 4th time today.
Man City equals a win and over 2.5 goals minimum right?
MANCHESTER CITY - 100% win at home, scored 3 in 3, 4 in 2 and 2+ goals in all home matches. overall draws v fulham and Liverpool and we know Fulham was 0-2 up. No defeat in 13 for city. They have interestingly conceded in their last 6 matches overall.
NORWICH - sole away win was v 18th. they have played 4 of the top 8 away and lost 2-0, 3-1, 3-2 and drew 1-1 with Liverpool.
Wins overall against teams lower than 10th. 4 losses and a draw v top 8 home and away .
GOALS - 83% overs for City, all bar one match this season has seen a successful over 2.5 goals trade.50% overs for Norwich away. 5 of their last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals. They have conceded 2+ against top 8 ( bar the Liverpool match). Norwich have scored in the last 6 and conceded in the last 13 overall.
CONCLUSIONS - Norwich have conceded 2-3-3-1 playing 4 of top 8 home and away - and City have scored 2+ at home this season. Any reason why the traditional bets on city each week will not arrive? Over 3.5 goals might be a tradable goer. Watch out if Norwich score first, it will be Xmas come early - ditto if 0-0 at halftime!
3pm - QPR v West Brom - 2.32 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 06.03.2010 | LCh | Queens Park Rangers | 3-1 | West Bromwich | |
| 14.12.2009 | LCh | West Bromwich | 2-2 | Queens Park Rangers |
Irrelevant as in the Championship, and now Premiership
LEAGUE POSITION - 11th v 14th and the odds suggest a tight match.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - QPR -
RECENT HOME FORM - LDDDWL - sole win was the famous win against Chelsea.Draws against 4th, 8th and bottom.Losses against Man City and Bolton. My concern is that QPR are inconsistent and thus unreadable. One day beating Chelsea, the next getting spanked away by the likes of Fulham.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWDLDWLLWL - 3 losses in last 4 against Spurs, Man City and Norwich. 3 of the wins came away.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home. Only 6 matches at home .Last 4 matches overs. have scored and conceded in the last 4.
STREAKS - No draw in 2 at home. Have scored in the last 4 at home. Have scored and conceded in the last 4.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - WBA
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLDWL - wins against 8th and 10th away and playing 11th today.Losses against 5th, 7th and 13th away.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDDWWLLWL - 3 losses in last 4 mirrors QPR. No draw in 6. Losses against 12th and 13th and playing 11th today.wins against 8th and 10th away. Only draws have come against 15th and 16th, enough to warrant a lay the draw angle in?
GOAL TRENDS - 83% overs away from home or rather 5 of 6 away matches overs. Last 3 matches overs.
STREAKS - have conceded in the last 4 away and last 5 overall.No draw in 6 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -
QPR - won v Chelsea but v lucky,. Draws against 4th /8th and bottom at home. Inconsistent and therefore not confidently tradable. Overall QPR have lost 3 of their last 4 v Spurs, City and Norwich. THeir 3 wins came away.
WEST BROM - win away v 8th and 10th and playing 11th today - enough to side with WBA? But , like QPR, West Brom have lost 3 of their last 4. No draw in 6 and have losses v 12th and 13th ( playing 11th today!!!)
GOALS - 33% overs for QPR at home. They have scored and conceded in their last 4. 83% overs for WBA away
CONCLUSIONS - both sides have lost 3 of their last 4 - goals trends are incongruent and WBA have beaten 8th and 10th away ( playing 11th) but lost to 12th and 13th ( playing 11th) - not a match for me to trade I'm afraid. Where are the angles?
3pm - Rangers v Dunfermline - 1.18 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 24.09.2011 | PR | Dunfermline | 0-4 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 21.09.2010 | LC | Glasgow Rangers | 7-2 | Dunfermline |
1.18 a steal surely if you score 11 in 2 head to heads? as you know 1.18 signals a 4 goal minimum win.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 10th of 12.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Rangers
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWWDWD - -draws came against 4th, 5th and 6th, with 2 of the draws 1-1 draws. What do we make of 2 draws in last 3 home matches - a sign of decline at home?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWWWDWWWDL - no win in last 2 matches , again a sign of something? Have played 7 matches against the bottom 5 home and away and won the lot, conceding only 1 goal. Sole loss last match, an 82nd minute Kilmarnock winner.
GOAL TRENDS - 25% overs at home, down to 2 1-1's and 2 2-0's. 6 of last 8 matches under 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - 8 at home without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Dunfermline
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLLDWLL -all 3 wins away have been 0-1. Lost 2-1 away to Celtic and usually we can gauge Rangers performances by Celtics'
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLLLDLWLLD - sole win recently was one of those 0-1's against Hibs. Last 4 draws have all been score draws.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs away suggests goals trends influenced by opposition. 4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have only kept one clean sheet in the last 12. Have conceded 4-4-2 against top 3 home and away.
STREAKS - have scored in the last 4 away, and last 6 overall
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Celtic were a comfortable 2-0 up until a late Dunfermline consolation.
RANGERS - 0-4 win in September this year - unbeaten at home.Draws v 4th.5th.6th. No win for Rangers in last 2 a cause for concern? They have won all 7 matches played against bottom 5 sides conceding only 1 goal
DUNFERMLINE - 3 of their wins away were 0-1 Last 4 draws were score draws.
GOALS - 25% overs for rangers down to 1-1 and 2-0 scorelines. 6 of their last 8 matches under 2.5 goals. 50/50 overs for Dunfermline. 4 of their last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded 4-4-2 against top 3 home and away.
CONCLUSION - Rangers should replicate the 4-4-2 conceded by Dunfermline against top 3 home and away. If dunfermline win, it is likely to be 0-1. The general goal trend is unders here which could signal a 2-0 home win, with 3-0, 4-0 perhaps to make up the threesome scorelines. Rangers have won all 7 against bottom 5 conceding just 1 goal.
3pm - Tottenham v Bolton - 1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 05.02.2011 | PR | Tottenham | 2-1 | Bolton Wanderers | |
| 06.11.2010 | PR | Bolton Wanderers | 4-2 | Tottenham | |
| 01.05.2010 | PR | Tottenham | 1-0 | Bolton Wanderers | |
| 24.02.2010 | Cup | Tottenham | 4-0 | Bolton Wanderers | |
| 14.02.2010 | Cup | Bolton Wanderers | 1-1 | Tottenham |
3 wins in last 3 home head to heads. And in their current form, Spurs should win again?
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 18th, 3rd from top v 3rd from bottom.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Spurs
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWW - loss v Man City, as with every other team.Have beaten 6th, 7th, 8th and 11th at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWWWDWWWWW - superb form. Were 0-1 and 1-2 up against Newcastle before a late Newc equaliser. Have only played the bottom 7 away and won the lot.
GOAL TRENDS - 80% overs at home. Have scored in all home matches. In fact, have failed to score only in the first match of the season. Only 2 matches under 2.5 goals were both 2-0 , one of them a successful over 2.5 goals trades. Tottingham have scored 2-4-2-2-2-2-3-3-2-3 in last few matches. Ultra consistent.
STREAKS - 4 match home winning streak, 5 overall.No defeat in 10, and have scored in the last 11.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bolton
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLWLL - no draw away for Bolton.Beat QPR first match of season and then only other win away to Wigan, and let's face it, that's hardly an achievement.Lost to 6th, 7th, 13th and 14th, conceding 3 on 3 occasions and 2 on the other .
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLWLLWLL - no draw this season for Bolton and a draw you think is the best they can hope for. Have played 7 matches home and away against the current top 10 and lost the lot.
GOAL TRENDS - 100% overs away from home. Only 2 matches this season have been under 2.5 goals and they were both 2-0, both arguably failed over 2.5 goals trades given the timing of the 2nd goal. Have only kept a clean sheet in 2 matches, both wins.
STREAKS - 6 away without a draw, 13 overall. Have conceded in the last 5 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the rotation for Europa league matches has paid off in the Premiership, but not really in the Europa League.
SPURS - 3 wins at home in head to heads. sole loss v City at home, followed by 4 wins v 6th/7th/8th/11th. 9 of the last 10 matches overall have been wins.
BOLTON - no draw away - have lost all 7 played against the top 10
GOALS - 80% overs for Spurs. They have scored in all home matches. They only failed to score in first match of season overall. Have scored 2-4-2-2-2-2-3-3-2-3 recently. No defeat in 10 and have scored in last 11. 100% overs for Bolton away from home. Only 2 matches overall this season were unders.
CONCLUSION - goals trends are hugely in favour of goals. Spurs should score 2/3 if keeping up recent good goalscoring record. No draw away for Bolton means lay the draw if it is late in the match and still a draw.
As ever you check the team news. Adebayor important for Spurs of late, and Van Der Fart a big miss if not playing for Spurs.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 21.02.2011 | Cup | West Ham | 5-1 | Burnley FC | |
| 06.02.2010 | PR | Burnley FC | 2-1 | West Ham | |
| 28.11.2009 | PR | West Ham | 5-3 | Burnley FC |
How much do we take from the Cup match in February.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 14th after 19 matches
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - West Ham - you know the story by now - I repeat it every week, late goals have cost them
RECENT HOME FORM - LDWWLWWDW - West Ham have been a little less culpable of late re conceding late goals at home. 3 wins and a draw latest.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWLDWLWWDWWWW - 6 wins and a draw in last 7.West Ham have scored 3-0-2-2-3-2. Only defeats this season have been 1-0's against 1st, 3rd and 21st. Against mid table, The hammers have generally won.
GOAL TRENDS - 55% overs at home - only 3 of the last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored 13 and conceded 2 only in the first 1/2 hour of matches this season. Opponent leads at half time in only 10.5% of matches.
STREAKS - 4 t home without defeat.4 match winning streak overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Burnley
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLWLWLLW - no draw away and a LW sequence ended last time with 2 consecutive losses. Burnley have not played any of the top 9 away from home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLLWWLLLLWW - no draw in 12. Have drawn 1-1 with 1st and 3rd at home - will they transfer that to the away match v 2nd? Conceded 2 against 10th,11th, 12th, 13th, 15th, does this make them vulnerable for the first time against top 10 away.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs away from home. Last 8 matches all over 2.5 goals. In 7 of the last 8 matches, Burnley scored and conceded. Burnley have only kept a clean sheet in 2 matches.
STREAKS - 12 overall without a draw, 9 away.have scored in the last 8 matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
WEST HAM - 3 wins and a draw lately at home and they have stopped the crippling 89th/90th minute goal concessions. Have won 6 of their last 7 matches. 3-0-2-2-3-2- scored recently. All defeats this season were 1-0 against 1st/3rd and 21st.
BURNLEY - no draw away. Have not played any of the top 9 away.No draw in 12 overall. 1-1 came against 1st and 3rd at home.
GOALS - 55% overs for West Ham. Only 3 of their last 8 matches have been overs. Have scored 13 and conceded only 2 in the first half hour of matches ( back to lay in match odds for West Ham?) Burnley have conceded 2 v 10th/11th/12th/13th./15th this season. 67% overs for Burnley away. they have scored and conceded in last 7.
CONCLUSIONS - West Ham should score first here, as they are quick off the blocks at home. Over 2.5 goals as a trade may come in as Burnley have scored and conceded in all of the last 7. We cannot discount a surprise as Burnley are yet to play against top 9 away ( but have conceded 2 v 10th to 13th inclusive!!!) Hammers might score 2/3 again if following recent goalscoring exploits.
3pm - Wigan v Arsenal - 1.6 away - if my theory is right, Wigan generally lose against established Premiership sides, and their recent form makes this 1.6 of some appeal.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 22.01.2011 | PR | Arsenal FC | 3-0 | Wigan Athletic | |
| 29.12.2010 | PR | Wigan Athletic | 2-2 | Arsenal FC | |
| 30.11.2010 | LC | Arsenal FC | 2-0 | Wigan Athletic | |
| 18.04.2010 | PR | Wigan Athletic | 3-2 | Arsenal FC | |
| 19.09.2009 | PR | Arsenal FC | 4-0 | Wigan Athletic | |
| 11.04.2009 | PR | Wigan Athletic | 1-4 | Arsenal FC |
Away from home though, Wigan have been very competitive in their last 2 matches.
LEAGUE POSITION - 19th v 7th after 13 matches. 4th to 7th separated by 3 points.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Wigan
RECENT HOME FORM - DWLLLD - have only played one of the top 9 at home - losing 1-2 to 3rd placed Spurs. Sole win v QPR at the beginning of the season.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - -DDWLLLLLLLLDW - 90th min winner v Sunderland latest one of only 2 this season. 5 losses home and away in 5 matches against top 9.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home. Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - 4 at home without a win, have conceded in last 4 at home, and last 10 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Arsenal
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLLWW - sorry away start with losses to United, Spurs and Blackburn. The latter very unfortunate. Wins now against Chelsea and Norwich must fill Arsenal with confidence.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLWLWLWWWWWD - very solid form and the 1-1 latest v Fulham just goes to show that an overreliance on Robin Van Parsnips will get Arse in trouble - why? Well, as I mentioned last week, he was solely responsible for turning draws into wins against Sunderland, Stoke, Chelsea, and Norwich. Keep him quiet and it's 1-1 v Fulham with the Arsenal goal an own goal.
This is what Wigan must do this afternoon.You stop Robin scoring, you are more likely to get something out of the match.
Arsenal have only played 1 of the bottom 10 away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - 83% overs away from home. Only match unders was a 0-0 with Newcastle - 8 of the last 9 matches over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - Van Persie scored winning goal in 4 of last 6 matches.2 match away winning streak. No draw in 5 away and have scored in the last 11 matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
WIGAN - beaten in recent weeks by my gran's residential care home select XI, and my 9 month old neice's cuddly toy select XI -yes Wigan are shoite. They have only played 1 of the top 9 at home and that was a 1-2 loss. A recent 90th minute win v Sunderland says more about Sunderland I fear.5 losses home and away against top 9
ARSENAL - wins against Chelsea and Norwich latest. Have won in 6 of last 8 matches. Van Persie won 4 of last 6 matches with his goals and this over reliance came unstuck as a 1-1 with Fulham saw Van Persie kept quiet.
GOALS - 50/50 overs at home.Have only kept a clean sheet in 2 matches this season. 83% over 2.5 goals away from home for the Arse. - no draw in 5 away
CONCLUSIONS - logic points to an away win. Concerns? Already mentioned over reliance on Van Persie. If he does not score , who scores? ( well last match Fulham own goal!!) 0-0 might be an early starter here as Wigan seek to keep it tight at home. Look again at team news. This is a match Arsenal should win, and it might be another tight 1-2 win.
5pm - Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu - 1.24 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 15.05.2011 | D1 | Fenerbahçe SK | 6-0 | MKE Ankaragücü | |
| 12.12.2010 | D1 | MKE Ankaragücü | 2-1 | Fenerbahçe SK | |
| 09.11.2010 | Cup | MKE Ankaragücü | 4-2 | Fenerbahçe SK | |
| 09.05.2010 | D1 | MKE Ankaragücü | 0-3 | Fenerbahçe SK |
Only 1 home head to head recently saw a 6-0 win.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 18th - top v bottom
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Fenerbahce
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDWW - 1-0 win and 0-0 draw against 15th and 16th perhaps signals struggles against the bottom sides? 3 1-0 wins, a 0-0 and a 1-1 signal Fener have been getting the job don - JUST! at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWWWDDWLWD - only 1 loss this season came away to 12th .WDW against bottom 4 sides not as emphatic as I would like
GOAL TRENDS - 17% overs at home.Last 4 matches unders. It is amazing Fenerbahce are 1st in the league with an altogether average goalscoring record.
STREAKS - 2 match home winning streak.No defeat in 6 at home.Have not conceded in last 3 home matches.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Ankaragucu
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLDL - no win away. Losses against 3rd, 5th, 6th and 9th away from home conceding 2-3-3-3 should make them vulnerable, albeit to infrequent scorers at home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM -LLLDLLLLLDWL - sole win at home v 15th.Draws away to 11th and 16th . 8 matches played against top 9 home and away and all losses. Conceded 2 4 times and 3 4 times. Again that number 3 recurs.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs away. Have conceded in all matches this season. Have failed to score against 2nd and 3rd.
STREAKS - 6 away without a win, have conceded in 6 away and 12 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is top v bottom
FENER - unbeaten at home 1-0 win and 0-0 draw v 15th and 16th means this top v bottom clash might not be comprehensively in favour of the obvious. Only 1 loss this season . against the bottom 4 sides, it's WDW. No defeat in 6 at home. Have kept a clean sheet in the last 3 home matches.
ANKARA - No win away. Losses away to 3rd, 5th, 6th and 9th. COnceded 2-3-3-3 - can we trust a low scoring Fener to replicate this as they should be capable of. Ankara's sole win was against 15th. They have played 8 matches gainst top 9 and lost all, conceding either 2 or 3.
GOALS - a woeful 17% overs at home for Fenerbahce , their last 4 matches under 2.5 goals. They are winning, Just! - 67% overs away for Ankara and have conceded in all matches this season
CONCLUSION -yes Fener have been winning but their goalscoring is poor and will catch them out some day. Normally, Ankara's form suggests a home win by 2/3 but can we trust 17% overs at home Fener?
Correct score 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 perhaps for Fener. This is a match where 0-0 back to lay might pay off if Fener continue to be profligate infront of goal at home and Ankara are unlikely to score many .
5pm - Gijon v Real Madrid - 1.25 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 02.04.2011 | D1 | Real Madrid | 0-1 | Sporting Gijón, c | |
| 14.11.2010 | D1 | Sporting Gijón | 0-1 | Real Madrid | |
| 20.03.2010 | D1 | Real Madrid | 3-1 | Sporting Gijón | |
| 24.10.2009 | D1 | Sporting Gijón | 0-0 | Real Madrid |
real pains in the arse it would seem. Late goals in the last 2 head to heads and all 2nd half goals in the last 4 head to heads. But now with Karen Benzema , Gonzo Higuan and the Big Winker all scoring regularly can we hope at least for a first half breakthrough?
LEAGUE POSITION - 17th v top - and have a game in hand and 3 points over Barcelona and in such a tight battle this must continue for Real as it is the difference between winning the title and a close 2nd.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Gijon
RECENT HOME FORM - LLDLWDW - sudden change in fortune at home sees wins against 13th and 18th. 0-1 losses against 2nd ( BArca) and 3rd ( Valencia) again reinforce the tightness Gijon display .
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLDLLWWDDWL - a great recent run, albeit against 13th and below teams. Have lost all 5 matches played home and away against top 8 sides.
GOAL TRENDS - 29% overs at home. 4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches this season so this screams out 0-1 surely worse case?
STREAKS - 3 at home without defeat.Have scored in the last 3 at home.Have conceded in the last 5 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - real Madrid
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDLWWWW - slight hiccup rectified with 4 consecutive wins. Have played 3 of the bottom 5 away , 1-0, 0-0 and 6-0 - 2 coincidental tight matches?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLDWWWWWWWWW - -have scored 6-4-4-4-3-1-7-3-4 in recent wins. Higuan a key element here. If he does not play, then unders may be a good call.
GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs away from home. 8 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in only 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - 9 match winning streak overall. No defeat in 10 overall.Have scored in the last 9 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
Last 2 head to heads were shared 1-0 and both 2nd half goals, but surely this is a different more potent Real Madrid?
GIJON - at home wins v 13th and 18th and 0-1 losses v Barcelona and Valencia really ties in with last 2 head to heads. Gijon lost all 5 home and away against top 8.
REAL MADRID - 4 wins lately away. Have played 3 of the bottom 5 and won 1-0, 0-0, 6-0 - any coincidence these tight scorelines are occuring again?
9 wins in last 9 matches over all scoring 6-4-4-4-3-1-7-3-4 does not hint at a 0-1 win today!
GOALS - 29% overs for Gijon at home, but 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.57% overs away from home. 8 of the last 9 matches over 2.5 goals.
CONCLUSION - a strong argument can be made for 0-0 back to lay for as long as you dare and under 2.5/1.5 goals with Gijon losing 0-1 against 2nd and 3rd, sharing 1-0 2nd half goal scorelines in last 2 head to heads, and Real 1-0 and 0-0 in 2 matches against bottom 5.
The evidence is there. But then Real have score 6-4-4-4-3-1-7-3-4 lately. Higuan is back and firing. even Karen Benzema is scoring. So it is a matter of choice here. Cogent arguments for both goal angles. 0-0 a possible insurance bet if deciding to back Real in match odds.
530pm - Aston Villa v Man Utd - 1.78 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 01.02.2011 | PR | Manchester United | 3-1 | Aston Villa | |
| 13.11.2010 | PR | Aston Villa | 2-2 | Manchester United | |
| 28.02.2010 | LC | Aston Villa | 1-2 | Manchester United | |
| 10.02.2010 | PR | Aston Villa | 1-1 | Manchester United |
United have scored 2 minimum in last 3 matches.
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 2nd after 13 matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Aston Villa
RECENT HOME FORM - WDDWLW - sole loss v WBA. Have only played one of the top 9 at home , a 1-1 draw against Newcastle.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWDDDDWLLDWLD - only 1 win in the last 6.Losses away against 1st and 3rd, and 14th at home. 5 of the draws came away from home. Wins at home against 10th , 19th and 20th ( 2nd bottom and bottom) hardly impressive.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home. Last 2 matches unders but 4 prior were all overs.
STREAKS - -3 without a draw at home. Have scored in the last 4 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - MAN UNITED
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWDDWW - unbeaten away from home. Draws against Liverpool and Stoke both score draws. Away from home against top 12, we have seen 2 1-1's and 2 0-1 wins.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWWDWDLWWWD - 3 1-0's and a 1-1 in last 4 matches symptomatic of a problem in attack? Hernandez has scored 3 of the goals and Wes Brown own goal for the other. Like Arsenal , are United too reliant on Hernandez - it can prove very dangerous if goals are not spread though a number of players.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home. 7 of the last 8 matches have been under 2.5 goals. What is up with United up front? Having said that, United have scored in all matches this season.They have kept a clean sheet in 3 of the last 4 matches.
STREAKS - 2 match away winning streak. No defeat in 6 away. Have scored in last 13 matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - tight head to heads
VILLA - sole loss at home local derby v WBA. Only played 1 of the top 9 at home. Only 1 win in last 6 overall. Losses against 1st, 3rd and 14th at home. 2 recent home wins came against bottom 2, will really have old red nose worrying.
UNITED - unbeaten away from home with draws against Liverpool and Stoke. Away to top 12, it's 2 1-1's and 2 0-1's. Indeed , recently, 3 1-0's and a 1-1 in last 4 matches saw Hernandez scoring the United goals, and like Arsenal and Van Parsnips, an over reliance on one player is so dangerous. Shut him out and you're stuck!
Goals - 50/50 overs for Villa. 33% overs away from home. 7 of United's last 8 matches have been unders. They have scored in all matches this season. United have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 matches.
Conclusions - I am concerned with United suddenly drying up infront of goal. This surely makes them vulnerable. And with Villa only playing one of the top 9 at home so far, we cannot dismiss a surprise?
Value seekers would look to lay United while they have trouble scoring and are over reliant on a single player for recent goals. Also remember Big 'Eck is adept at shutting out the big boys as seen in his Brum days.
Unders, 0-0 back initially, might pay off, as would a lay of United although , as United have scored in all matches this season, reactive traders might like to get on United if 0-0 for a concerted period or if Villa are leading 1-0 for a long period.
7pm - Barcelona v Levante - 1.11 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 11.05.2011 | D1 | Levante UD | 1-1 | FC Barcelona | |
| 02.01.2011 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 2-1 | Levante UD |
Levante a pain?
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 4th. Barca have played 14 and Levante have scored 13.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - barca
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWDWWW - 0-0 draw with Sevilla and that was predicted by yours truly. Barca have not played any of the top 5 at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWWDWLW - sole loss a 1-0 v Getafe. 3 of 43 draws have come away from home hinting at greater assurance at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 88% overs at home.barca have not conceded at home - incredible. But again I remind you that they are yet to play top 5 at home. 4 of the last 5 matches overs. Have only failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 matches.
STREAKS - 3 match home winning streak, 8 without defeat. Have not conceded in 8 at home,
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Levante
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDWWWLL - losses recently against current 7th and 10th and these were the first matches away v the top 10. And they are playing another top 10 team away today.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWWWWWWWLLLW - 3 losses in last 4 not what you need when away to Barcelona. Losses v 3rd , 7th, 10th, a coincidence that the flood of losses appear when facing the top 10?
GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs away from home.Failed to score in 2 of the recent losses.
STREAKS - no draw in 5 away, 11 overall.Have conceded in the last 2 away matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -
this is 2nd v 4th so a slight surprise that Levante have been dismissed so readily.
BARCELONA - we must note that Barca have not played any of the current top 5 at home. Their sole loss has come 1-0 v Getafe recently.
LEVANTE - losses v 7th and 10th away ( the only away matches v top 10). 3 losses overall have come against 3rd, 7th, 10th ( and guess what - these are top 10!)
GOALS - 88% overs for Barca and a clean sheet in all home matches. 4 of the last 5 matches were over 2.5 goals. 43% overs away from home. No draw in 11 overall for Levante
CONCLUSIONS -my knee jerk reaction was that this was a dismissive quote for 4th place Levante. But the arguments to oppose them? Upon meeting top 10, they have lost all 3. A coincidence? Levante have not had a draw in 11 overall and are unlikely to win v Barca away ergo home win.
Barca have kept a clean sheet at home - potential win to nil correct score.
Niggles? barca have yet to meet top 5 at home so form against better sides yet to be tested.
The value call, if not the logical call, is to lay Barcelona at 1.11 because they are playing top 4 side for the first time at home this season, and might be vulnerable?
745pm - Ajax v Excelsior - 1.11 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 24.04.2011 | D1 | AFC Ajax | 4-1 | SBV Excelsior | |
| 24.10.2010 | D1 | SBV Excelsior | 2-2 | AFC Ajax | |
| 02.03.2008 | D1 | AFC Ajax | 4-0 | SBV Excelsior |
an ability to score 4 goals in 2 home head to heads ties in with the 1.11 quote.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 17th of 18 - Ajax rather losing touch of the top 3 so must win these should wins.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Ajax
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDDDD - 3 of the draws came against the top 5. Have not played the bottom 9 at home yet.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWWDDLDDWLDW - only 2 losses this season, both away.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home.Have scored and conceded in all home matches. Only 2 matches this season under 2.5 goals, both were 1-1 scorelines.
STREAKS - 4 match drawing streak at home - surely will end today?No defeat in 6 at home. Have scored and conceded in the last 6 .
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Excelsior
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLDLD - no win away.lost 6-1 to 2nd and 2-2 to 3rd
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLLLLDLLWDD - unbeaten in last 3 against 13th , 14th and 18th.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home, down largely to 3 matches finishing 2-0 ( losses)
STREAKS - no win in 6 away
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Ajax have scored 4 goals in 2 head to heads at home and this ties in with the quote today.
AJAX - are unbeaten at home. 3 draws came against the top 5. Have not played the bottom 9 just yet.
2 losses have both come away from home. Ajax have drawn the last 4 at home and are primed for this sequence to end today surely?
EXCELSIOR - no win away. Lost 6-1 v 2nd in the league. and 2-2 draw v 3rd in the league.Overal Excelsior are unbeaten in their last 3 against 13th/14th/18th
GOALS - 67% overs at home. Ajax have scored and conceded in all home matches -only 2 Ajax matches have been under 2.5 goals all season, both 1-1. 33% overs away from home for Excelsior
CONCLUSIONS - the odds suggest Ajax repeat their 4 goals scored in last 2 home head to heads. With Excelsior conceded 6 and 2 against 2nd and 3rd, this is a possibility. With Ajax scoring and conceding in all matches home ( but note they have not played bottom 9) , there is a possibility we can push the goals trade as far as 4.5 goals?
745pm - Inter v Udinese - 2.12 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 23.01.2011 | D1 | Udinese Calcio | 3-1 | Inter Milan | |
| 11.09.2010 | D1 | Inter Milan | 2-1 | Udinese Calcio | |
| 28.02.2010 | D1 | Udinese Calcio | 2-3 | Inter Milan | |
| 03.10.2009 | D1 | Inter Milan | 2-1 | Udinese Calcio | |
| 05.04.2009 | D1 | Udinese Calcio | 0-1 | Inter Milan |
LEAGUE POSITION - 15th v 3rd - again I think Inter are in a false position given their poor manager at the start of the season. Tight matches and 2 2-1 wins for Inter in their last 2 home matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Inter
RECENT HOME FORM - DLWLW - losses v 1st and 6th - still vulnerable to better sides?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLLWDLWW - 4 losses against top 8.
GOAL TRENDS - 60% overs at home. Only 2 of last 5 overs.
STREAKS - 4 at home without a draw, have scored in last 3 at home and conceded in last 2 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - udinese - obviously had the better start to the season
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDDLL - losses v Napoli (6th) and Parma (10th) both 2-0. A back to form Inter can surely replicate that? Sole win away for Udinese came against bottom side Lecce.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWDWLWWLW - no draw in last 6 matches.Those 2 away losses were the only losses this season. Udinese win all at home and drop points in nearly all away.
GOAL TRENDS - all away matches under 2.5 goals. Only 2 matches this season have been under 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - 5 away without a win. No draw in the last 6 overall.Udinese have failed to score in their last 4 matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
INTER - losses at home v 1st and 6th and are playing 3rd today. 4 of Inter's losses this season have come against the top 8. They are threatening to return to what we expect from an Inter side, but have a tough test against current 3rd.
UDINESE - losses against 6th and 10th away were 2-0's and falsely positioned Inter , on their day, should replicate that. Sole win away for Udinese was against bottom side LEcce. No draw in the last 6 for Udinese.
GOALS - 60% overs at home for Inter - 100% under 2.5 goals away for Udinese who have failed to score in their last 4.
CONCLUSIONS - surely Udinese are exploitable away from home -Jekyll and Hyde - at home superb, away faltering. And the fact Udinese have failed to score in their last 4 matches surely opens up a back to lay of Inter at home, in the hope they score first or lead at some stage? Inter though are still unreliable betting mediums after the debacle of early season.
745pm - Napoli v Lecce - 1.43 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 08.05.2011 | D1 | US Lecce | 2-1 | SSC Napoli | |
| 19.12.2010 | D1 | SSC Napoli | 1-0 | US Lecce | |
| 10.05.2009 | D1 | US Lecce | 1-1 | SSC Napoli |
LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 20th ( bottom)
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Napoli
RECENT HOME FORM - WDLWDD - sole loss at home v Parma.Draws against 1st and 4th and wins against 2nd and 3rd. Surely bottom well within Napoli's compass.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLDWLDWLDDD - losses against 8th, 10th and 11th. Have beaten 19th in the league 1-3 away.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs overall this season. Only 2 of the last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. No opponent has led at half time this season.
STREAKS - no win in 4 overall.No defeat in 3 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Lecce
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLDLWL - wins away have come against 17th and 19th.Losses against 5th, 7th and 12th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLLLDLLDWLL - 2 wins only this season have come away from home without conceding. Have lost all 5 matches played home and away against top 8 sides.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs overall this season. Only 4 matches this season overs.
STREAKS - 3 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
NAPOLI - draws at home v 1st and 4th and wins against 2nd and 3rd and playing bottom today! Losses overall have come against 8th. 10th and 11th. Napoli beat 19th 1-3 and are playing 20th today.
LECCE - wins away against 17th and 19th, losses v 5th, 7th and 12th. 2 wins only this sesaon. Have lost all 5 matches played home and away against top 8
GOALS - 50/50 overs at home. Only 2 of the last 6 matches overs ( coincide with Champions League campaign)? Great stat - NO opponent has lead at half time this season. 33% overs for Lecce away and only 4 overs matches this season.
CONCLUSIONS - what a superb stat - Napoli have not lost in the first half this season. Maybe a halftime/fulltime win/win on Napoli might enhance the match odds? Not tradable though.
9pm - Valencia v Espanyol - 1.55 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 11.05.2011 | D1 | Real CD Espanyol | 2-2 | Valencia CF | |
| 02.01.2011 | D1 | Valencia CF | 2-1 | Real CD Espanyol | |
| 01.05.2010 | D1 | Real CD Espanyol | 0-2 | Valencia CF | |
| 02.01.2010 | D1 | Valencia CF | 1-0 | Real CD Espanyol |
chance for overs based on head to heads?
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 8th after 13 matches, and a chance for Valencia to be only one point behind a faltering Barcelona - something very rare as the top 2 tend to bound clear.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Valencia
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWDWL - loss was against Real Madrid. Have played 1st and 2nd , 2-2 v Barca and 2-3 v Real Madrid.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDLWDDWWWLW - only 2 losses this season against the big 2 suggests Valencia should not lose against the rest ( I chose my words carefully to include the draw)
GOAL TRENDS - 57% over 2.5 goals at home.Scored in all home matches.3 of the last 4 matches over 2.5 goals . failed to score in only 1 match this season.
STREAKS - have scored in the last 7 at home and last 8 overall.No draw in 5 overall. Have conceded in the last 3 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Espanyol
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLWWLD - sole draw came last match.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWLLWWWLDDL - have played 4 of the top 7 home and away and lost all matches. Lost away to 4th and 5th 2-1 and 3-1
GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs away from home. Only 2 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals includes 3 1-0's and 2 0-0's.
STREAKS - no win in 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
VALENCIA - losses v Real Madrid at home and a 2-2 v barcelona augurs well. Close points wise with Barca and this does not happen often .
Only 2 losses this season have been against the big 2, suggesting capability against the others.
ESPANYOL - sole draw came in the last match. Have played 4 of the top 7 home and away and lost the lot. Lost away to 4th and 5th 2-1 and 3-1 ( note they scored)
GOALS -57% overs for Valencia at home. they have scored in all home matches and scored 2 against Real Madrid and Barcelona.They have only failed to score in one match this season. Valencia have conceded in the last 3 at home. 43% overs away for Espanyol. Only 2 of the last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. 3 1-0's and 2 0-0's in last 7 might hint at an ability to keep things tight?
CONCLUSION - Valencia should be favourites this evening given their home record and Espanyol;s record against top 7 and losses 2-1 and 3-1 v 4th and 5th. Espanyol could score this evening which may help any goals trade, but 5 of their last 7 matches have been 1-0 or 0-0 ( albeit the 2 exceptions both 2-1 losses.
SUNDAY
11am - Atl Madrid v Rayo Vallecano - 1.6 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 05.08.2008 | CF | Rayo Vallecano | 2-4 | Atlético Madrid | |
| 22.03.2003 | D1 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-0 | Atlético Madrid |
No recent relevant head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 11th - Rayo have played one match more.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Atl Madrid
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDDWW - no defeat at home.3 of the wins against bottom 4, the other win against top 4 Levante.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLWWLDDDLWLWL - losses all came away from home, very Jekyll and Hyde , and to be fair, 3 of the losses were against 1st, 2nd ,3rd away.
GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs at home. - last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - no defeat in 7 at home.2 match home winning streak. Have scored and conceded in the last 4 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Rayo Vallecano
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWLDWLDL - inconsistent away form - lost to 1st, 2nd and 12th, draws against 7th and 9th, wins against 13th and 14th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLWWLWDLL - again inconsistent - 3 of the wins against bottom 8
GOAL TRENDS - 25% overs away from home. 3 of last 4 matches overs but large trend towards unders. Have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches.
STREAKS - 3 away without a win, 3 overall without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
no recent head to heads and 10th v 11th
ATH MADRID - no defeat at home but 3 wins have come against the bottom 4.
Losses have all come away from home , 3 of them to be fair against 1st/2nd/3rd.
RAYO - losses away v 1st, 2nd and 12th. Draws v 7th and 9th and beat 13th/14th - hints at a capability v 10th?3 wins overall have come against bottom 8 sides.
GOALS - MAdrid are 57% overs at home and 5 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored and conceded in the last 4 overall - Rayo 25% overs away from home, but 3 of their last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 2 of last 3 matches.
CONCLUSIONS - Rayo's draws against 7th and 9th and beating of 13th and 14th might make them the value here? This is a messy match though to read into. Madrid are undefeated at home .
1130am - Feyenoord v PSV - 2.08 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 24.04.2011 | D1 | Feyenoord | 3-1 | PSV Eindhoven | |
| 24.10.2010 | D1 | PSV Eindhoven | 10-0 | Feyenoord | |
| 11.04.2010 | D1 | PSV Eindhoven | 0-0 | Feyenoord | |
| 27.01.2010 | Cup | PSV Eindhoven | 0-3 | Feyenoord | |
| 20.09.2009 | D1 | Feyenoord | 1-3 | PSV Eindhoven |
mixed bag apart from that famous 10-0 home PSV win. All wins emphatic but split between teams.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 2nd
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Feyenoord
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWLWL - have yet to play the top 5 at home. Losses came against 14th and 15th
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDWWLLWDLLWW - losses against 1st and 6th aswell as above.Have played 2 of the top 4, but away and lost 1 and drew the other.
GOAL TRENDS - 83% overs at home.General season long trend towards overs. Scored 16 in the quarter hour before and after halftime.
STREAKS - 4 at home and 4 overall without a draw
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - PSV
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDWDDW - only one loss away.was against top.Have drawn against 3rd, 12th and bottom. Wins against 14th, 15th, 16th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWWDDWWWDDWWW - solid form,with draws against 3rd, 4th and 7th and bottom - all score draws - have not win against top 7 just yet.
GOAL TRENDS - 71.4% overs throughout the season home and away - have scored 2-3-4-6 in last 4 matches.
STREAKS - 6 away without defeat, 13 overall.Have scored in last 14 and conceded in last 5.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - both top 5 sides. Head to heads inconclusive.
FEYENOORD - are yet to play the top 5 at home. Losses v 14th and 15th. Overall also lost to 1st and 6th . Have played 2 of top 4, but away, a loss and draw.
PSV - only 1 loss at home was against top side.Draws against 3rd, 12th and bottom. Wins against 14th, 15th, 16th. 6 wins in last 8 overall, draws v 3rd, 4th and 7th and bottom were all score draws. No win yet against top 7 ( loss v AZ and 3 score draws).
GOALS - 83% overs for Feyenoord at home. Have scored 16 goals in the 1/4 hour either side of halftime. 71.4% overs for PSV , scored 2-3-4-6 in last 4 matches. Have scored in last 14 and conceded in last 5
CONCLUSIONS - goals the obvious starting point with both teams likely to score. Mixed head to heads suggests a neutral goals trade perhaps. The momentum, you could argue, is with a PSV side with 6 wins in last 8 matches, scoring 2-3-4-6 in last 4.
1245pm - Dundee Utd v Celtic - 1.66 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 13.08.2011 | PR | Celtic FC | 5-1 | Dundee United | |
| 01.05.2011 | PR | Celtic FC | 4-1 | Dundee United | |
| 13.02.2011 | PR | Dundee United | 1-3 | Celtic FC | |
| 20.11.2010 | PR | Celtic FC | 1-1 | Dundee United | |
| 17.10.2010 | PR | Dundee United | 1-2 | Celtic FC | |
| 25.04.2010 | PR | Dundee United | 0-2 | Celtic FC |
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 2nd and a potential killer 4 points behind Rangers.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Dundee United
RECENT HOME FORM - DDLLWLDW - have lost against 1st and 3rd at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLWDLLDWLWD - losses have come against 1st home and away, 2nd away, 3rd home, 10th home, 11th away, so should be vulnerable against 2nd today. draws against 3rd, 4th, ( home and away), 6th, 7th 9th.
GOAL TRENDS - 25% overs at home down to 3 1-0's a 0-0 and 2 1-1's.0-1 loss v rangers but conceded 3 and 5 away to Old Firm.Have kept a clean sheet in last 2
STREAKS - 2 at home without defeat - have kept a clean sheet in last 2 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - CELTIC
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWLLDWW - losses v Rangers and Hearts, 2nd and 5th. 4 clean sheets in away wins against 6th and lower ( Dundee United are 8th)
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWLDWDWWWW - losses v 1st 4th and 5th.Against bottom 5, where Dundee United are, it's 7 wins and a 0-0 home draw, scoring 2 goals on 5 occasions and 5 goals once,
GOAL TRENDS - 37.5% overs away from home down to 4 2-0 score lines.
STREAKS - 4 match winning run overall. No defeat in 7 overall, have scored in last 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
Head to head see Celtic score 3-4-5 last 3 matches and Dundee score in last 5 meetings.
DUNDEE UNITED - losses v 1st, and 3rd at home. Overall have lost against 1st home and away, 2nd away, and 3rd at home making them vulnerable against 2nd today.
CELTIC - loss v rangers and Hearts. 4 clean sheets in away wins against 6th and lower. Losses overall against 1st, 4th and 5th, Against the bottom 5, where Dundee are, it's 7 wins and a 0-0 home draw, scoring 2+ on 5 occasions. 4 match winning streak for Celtic.
GOALS - 25% overs away from home include 3 10's a 0-0 and 2 1-1's. 0-1 loss v Rangers. Have though conceded 3 and 5 against the Old Firm away from home.. Have kept a clean sheet in last 2 home matches - 37.5% overs again low, due to 4 away 2-0 scorelines.
CONCLUSION - Celtic should score 2 today if form is anything to go by, and goals trends are poor because of 2 goal scorelines. But what to make of Dundee scoring in all of last 5 head to heads - does this open up a 1-2 scoreline?
1pm - AEK v Kerkira - 1.36 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 03.08.2011 | CF | Kerkira | 0-2 | AEK Athens | |
| 05.01.2011 | D1 | AEK Athens | 0-0 | Kerkira | |
| 29.08.2010 | D1 | Kerkira | 2-1 | AEK Athens | |
| 22.01.2009 | Cup | AEK Athens | 1-0 | Kerkira |
tight head to heads at AEK.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 14th - Kerkira have played 2 matches less than AEK and could rocket up to 7th/9th
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - AEK - have played 2 matches more than 1st place so really in a false position once all teams have played the same amount of matches.
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWW - sole draw against Olympiakos - 3rd was 1-1. Wins have come against 9th, 12th, 13th and 15th. But remember Kerkyra might not be in true 14th place.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDLWLWWW - 4 wins in last 5 matches. AEK have scored 3-2-2-2-2 in last 5 matches, yes they lost 3-2 away to Panathanaikos.All losses have come away to 1st, 5th and 7th.
GOAL TRENDS - 40% overs at home. 4 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals and the 2 exceptions were both 2-0 scorelines. Have only failed to score in 1 match this season.
STREAKS - 3 match home winning streak - no draw in 6 overall - no defeat in 5 at home and 3 overall. Have scored in the last 5 at home and last 8 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - KERKYRA
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLD - not played any of top 4 away and only a small sample means conclusions not strong.What we notice is trouble scoring - 1 game with 1 goal scored, and 2 0-0's
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLLLDLWD - sole win at home to 9th.
GOAL TRENDS - 25% overs away from home. Failed to score in 3 of 4 away.
STREAKS - 4 away without a win. No defeat in 2 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I am not toally confident about coming to conclusions based on 5 home matches only.
Head to heads point to a possible home win to nil, although opponents generally played 2 matches fewer. 4 wins in last 5 scoring 3-2-2-2-2 ultra consistent and have won at home v 13th and 15th and playing 14th today.\
AEK have scored in last 5 at home and last 8 overall so have the goal scoring habit.
Kerkyra are DLLD away and have yet to play the top 4.Only 1 win overall this season. 25% overs and failed to score in 3 of last 4.
Conclusions - Kerkyra have played 2 matches fewer so are in a slightly false position but one win only this season and no goal scored in 3 of last 4 may make them vulnerable to a defeat to nil? That is the value angle in today -get the correct score AEK 2-0, 1-0, 0-0 as it is Greece.
Head to heads point to a possible home win to nil, although opponents generally played 2 matches fewer. 4 wins in last 5 scoring 3-2-2-2-2 ultra consistent and have won at home v 13th and 15th and playing 14th today.\
AEK have scored in last 5 at home and last 8 overall so have the goal scoring habit.
Kerkyra are DLLD away and have yet to play the top 4.Only 1 win overall this season. 25% overs and failed to score in 3 of last 4.
Conclusions - Kerkyra have played 2 matches fewer so are in a slightly false position but one win only this season and no goal scored in 3 of last 4 may make them vulnerable to a defeat to nil? That is the value angle in today -get the correct score AEK 2-0, 1-0, 0-0 as it is Greece.
130pm - Anderlecht v Oud-Heverlee Leuven - 1.14 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 29.07.2011 | D1 | OH Leuven | 2-1 | Anderlecht | |
| 20.07.2008 | CF | OH Leuven | 0-3 | Anderlecht |
Odds certainly do not suggest another shock 2-1 win for Leuven.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 12th after 15 matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Anderlecht
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWWWW - sole draw was 2-2 v 9th - all other wins have seen Anderlecht score 2 or more
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWWWWWWWLWW - sole loss v Cercle Brugge 1-0 (5th)
GOAL TRENDS - 5-2-4-0-3-3 scored in recent matches. 86% overs at home. 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Only failed to score in that recent Cercle loss this season.
STREAKS - 5 match home winning streak, 2 overall. No draw in last 10 overall. Have scored in last 7 home matches.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Oud Heverlee
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLLLLL - sole win a 0-1 v 10th. losses against 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th 6-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-0 .
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLDLDLWLLL - recent wins home to 8th and 9th.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 away over 2.5 goals. Score an average 0.63 per away match and concede 2.25.Last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have only kept a clean sheet in 1 match this season. have scored and conceded in the last 4.
STREAKS - 5 match losing streak away. No draw in 8 away, and 5 overall. Have conceded in last 5 away and last 10 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - contrasting - winning all bar one at home v losing all bar one away. 5-2-4-0-3-3 scored by Anderlecht recently. 86% overs and 50/50 for away side should mean over 2.5 goals at the very least. The fact Anderlecht have scored 3 on average recently could lead us to seek the value of the over 3.5 goals or higher. Losses for away side against 2nd 3rd, 5th 6th 6-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-0 could hint at a win to nil today, and a potential goalbounty for Anderlecht. Ultra speculative can go for over 5.5 goals with trading in mind.
130pm - Utrecht v Twente - 1.82 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 02.03.2011 | Cup | FC Twente | 1-0 | FC Utrecht | |
| 06.02.2011 | D1 | FC Utrecht | 1-1 | FC Twente | |
| 29.08.2010 | D1 | FC Twente | 4-0 | FC Utrecht | |
| 17.01.2010 | D1 | FC Utrecht | 0-0 | FC Twente |
3/4 matches unders between these 2. And away 2 draws, one of which was a 0-0.
LEAGUE POSITION - 13th 3 3rd after 14 matches
LEAGUE POSITION - 13th 3 3rd after 14 matches
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Utrecht
RECENT HOME FORM - DWDWLW - have onl;y played one of the top 4 and that was a humdinger 6-4 win over Ajax.Lost 1-4 v Heerenveen - a sign? Have scored in all home matches. Scoring 6-1-3-2-3-2 so more than capable of contributing to any goals bets.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLWLLLWDL - 3 of the last 4 losses have come away. Have lost to 1st and 2nd away 1-0 and 2-0 - a sign?
GOAL TRENDS - 100% overs at home. Only 4 matches this season under 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - have scored in 6 at home and conceded in last 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Twente
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLDWDD - loss v 9th, all 3 draws 1-1
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWDDWDDWDD - too many draws recently 5/6 score draws - the last draw was a 0-0. 3 of last 4 aways 1-1 draws
GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs away from home - have scored in all away matches
STREAKS - 9 overall without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Head to heads draws last twice at Utrecht. This season they have only played one of top 4, 6-5 v Ajax, lost 1-4 to Heerenveen at home. HAve scored generally 2+ in all bar one at home this season.
Loss v 9th away for Twente - 3 draws 1-1 and 3 of last 4 away matches 1-1 draws - what is the likelihood of that happening again?
GOALS - 100% over 2.5 goals at home. Only 4 this season unders for Utrecht. Twente have scored in all away matches. Twente only failed to score in last match this whole season
Conclusion - always the threat of a draw but in cases like this I like to take a chance that the draw habit will be broken and lay the draw. 1-1 saver perhaps? GOals could be on the cards if Utrecht continue to score 2+ at home and Twente continue scoring in every away match.
Loss v 9th away for Twente - 3 draws 1-1 and 3 of last 4 away matches 1-1 draws - what is the likelihood of that happening again?
GOALS - 100% over 2.5 goals at home. Only 4 this season unders for Utrecht. Twente have scored in all away matches. Twente only failed to score in last match this whole season
Conclusion - always the threat of a draw but in cases like this I like to take a chance that the draw habit will be broken and lay the draw. 1-1 saver perhaps? GOals could be on the cards if Utrecht continue to score 2+ at home and Twente continue scoring in every away match.
2pm - Juventus v Cesena - 1.29 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 12.03.2011 | D1 | AC Cesena | 2-2 | Juventus FC | |
| 07.11.2010 | D1 | Juventus FC | 3-1 | AC Cesena | |
| 06.05.2007 | D2 | AC Cesena | 2-2 | Juventus FC |
Neutral goals bet a starter based on head to heads?
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 19th - a win takes JUve top
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 19th - a win takes JUve top
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Juve
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDWW - unbeaten at home - have not played any of the current bottom 3 yet but 1-1 draw v 4th bottom
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWDDWWWWD - unbeaten this season
GOAL TRENDS - 67% over 2.5 goals at home HAve scored in all home matches 5 of last 6 over 2.5 goals. Only failed to score in one match this season.
STREAKS - 2 match winning run at home. UNbeaten in last 12.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Cesena
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLW - sole win v Bologna 0-1. Lost 1-0 away t0 1st and 8th and 2-0 v 10th and 12th. So likely to not get spanked today.
RECENT OVERALL FORM- DDLDLLWW - what do we make of a 2 match winning run against 9th at home and 17th away from home? Have lost all 3 matches home and away against top 5
GOAL TRENDS - 100% under 2.5 goals away. HAve failed to score in 7/12 matches this season but obviously scored in last 2 wins.
STREAKS - 5 away without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - a win takes Juventus top today. Juve are unbeaten at home and overall this season. This will end soon but surely not against such apparent lowly opposition?Majority of Juve draws away from home.
Cesena lost 1-0 and 2-0 against top half sides - did not score away in those losses.
GOALS - 67% overs for Juve at home. HAve scored in all home matches. Only failed to score in one match this season. 100% unders for Cesena suggests a loss will be a maximum 2-0?
Unders might be a runner this afternoon as might an early 0-0 back to lay trade in the hope Juve take a while to score. Perhaps a break from the norm and a 3-0 ? That will be the value call?
Cesena lost 1-0 and 2-0 against top half sides - did not score away in those losses.
GOALS - 67% overs for Juve at home. HAve scored in all home matches. Only failed to score in one match this season. 100% unders for Cesena suggests a loss will be a maximum 2-0?
Unders might be a runner this afternoon as might an early 0-0 back to lay trade in the hope Juve take a while to score. Perhaps a break from the norm and a 3-0 ? That will be the value call?
3pm - Everton v Stoke - 1.75 home
HEAD TO HEADS
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 13th - Everton have generally played 2 fewer than other sides.
| 01.01.2011 | PR | Stoke City | 2-0 | Everton FC | |
| 30.10.2010 | PR | Everton FC | 1-0 | Stoke City | |
| 01.05.2010 | PR | Stoke City | 0-0 | Everton FC | |
| 04.10.2009 | PR | Everton FC | 1-1 | Stoke City | |
| 14.03.2009 | PR | Everton FC | 3-1 | Stoke City |
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 13th - Everton have generally played 2 fewer than other sides.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Everton
RECENT HOME FORM - LDWLLW - wins v 17th and 20th and losses v 2nd, 7th and 11th - Stoke in no mans land, not top nor bottom.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLLWLLWW - no recent draw for Everton overall. 5 of the 6 losses have come against top 7 sides so an argument could be made for a toughish start to the season.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs throughout the season suggests overs/unders based on opponents. 4 of the last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Everton have only kept a clean sheet in 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - no draw in 4 at home and 9 overall. Have conceded in the last 6 at home
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Stoke
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWLLLL - losses against 5th, 16th 18th and 19th and conceding 2+ in each defeat most unStoke like
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLDLWLLLLW - no draw in last 7 - last 3 wins have come at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 away again - last 5 matches over 2.5 goals included 4 defeats.
STREAKS - 4 match away losing streak - no draw in 5 away and 7 overall , have conceded in last 5 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Stoke are in poor form away and losses mean concession of 2+ goals. Everton's only wins at home have come against 17th and 20th though. No recent draws for either side could mean laying the draw. 50/50 overs for both sides means that's a toss of a coin.
On form , Stoke look opposable until you see Everton have only beaten poor sides away. A match for me to swerve I think.
On form , Stoke look opposable until you see Everton have only beaten poor sides away. A match for me to swerve I think.
330pm - Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar - 2.36 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 19.02.2011 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 0-2 | AZ Alkmaar | |
| 27.11.2010 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-2 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 06.03.2010 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 4-1 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 23.08.2009 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 0-2 | AZ Alkmaar | |
| 25.07.2009 | SC | AZ Alkmaar | 5-1 | SC Heerenveen |
LEAGUE POSITION
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT HOME FORM
RECENT FORM OVERALL
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT AWAY FORM
RECENT OVERALL FORM
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
4pm - Paris St-G v Auxerre - 1.51 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 05.03.2011 | D1 | AJ Auxerre | 1-0 | Paris St. Germain | |
| 24.10.2010 | D1 | Paris St. Germain | 2-3 | AJ Auxerre | |
| 04.04.2010 | D1 | AJ Auxerre | 1-1 | Paris St. Germain | |
| 23.03.2010 | Cup | AJ Auxerre | 0-0/p.5-6 | Paris St. Germain |
Auxerre unbeaten in last 4 head to heads but is this post transfer PSG a little better?
LEAGUE POSITION 2nd v 16th - 3 points behind top
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team PSG - has David " how the feck am I still making millions from football" Beckham signed yet?
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWWWL - no draw at home.Losses, both 0-1 were against 8th and 18th. Have beaten 15th and 17th 1-0 and 2-1 and playing 16th today
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWWWWDLL - recent loss 0-1 at home v 18th and the other 3-0 away to 7th placed Marseille. Against bottom 5, where today's opponents reside, it's 2 2-1 wins, a 3-1 win and that anomolous 0-1. Perhaps factor in the 0-1 as an insurance bet today?
GOAL TRENDS - 38% overs at home. Only 3 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. PSG have failed to score in last 2 matches, both defeats - tells you how to beat them - tight at the back
STREAKS- 8 at home without a draw - have conceded in the last 4.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team -Auxerre
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDDDLL - no win away and lost v top team 3-1, and drew with 8th and 9th 1-1.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWDLLLWLL - a bout of Villaesque drawitis ended, but with losses rather than wins. Have lost against 3rd, 4th and 5th at home - does this make them vulnerable against 2nd away?
GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs away from home. 3 of the last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - no win in 7 away, no draw in 6 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
4pm - Wolves v Sunderland - 2.5 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 14.05.2011 | PR | Sunderland AFC | 1-3 | Wolverhampton | |
| 27.11.2010 | PR | Wolverhampton | 3-2 | Sunderland AFC | |
| 09.05.2010 | PR | Wolverhampton | 2-1 | Sunderland AFC | |
| 27.09.2009 | PR | Sunderland AFC | 5-2 | Wolverhampton |
LEAGUE POSITION - 17th v 16th and both on 11 points.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Wolves
RECENT HOME FORM - WLLLDW - have beaten current 15th and 19th - can cope with other poor starters?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDLLLLLDLWLL - only 3 wins, 2 of them at home,.6 of this season's defeats have come against top 10.Recent draw against Swansea at home when 0-2 down.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home.69% overs this season down mostly to conceding rather than scoring. 8 of the last 9 matches over 2.5 goals.Only kept clean sheets in 2nd and 3rd matches of the season.
STREAKS - have conceded in last 10 matches, and last 5 at home. Have scored in the last 3 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Sunderland - Steve " Brucey" Bruce no longer manager, and we may see a reaction from the Black Cats, conversely!
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDLLWL - sole win came against Bolton who are bottom 3.The other matches have been generally characterised by tight scorelines, 2-1's, 1-0's, 1-1, 0-0.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLDLWDLDL - 2 wins have come against Bolton and Stoke where Sunderland did not concede. The straw that broke the Brucey's nose was the last minute defeat to Wigan ( who my 8 year old nephews mates recently beat 4-0).
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home.Have failed to score in 2 of the last 3 ( one v Man Utd)
STREAKS - 4 away without a draw and 4 overall without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
430pm - Schalke v Augsburg - 1.41 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 21.12.2010 | Cup | FC Augsburg | 0-1 | Schalke 04 |
irrelevant head to head really.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 18th ( bottom) after 14 matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Schalke
RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWLWW - no draw at home. interestingly lost 1-2 to 3rd bottom , but did beat 2nd bottom 4-2 at home. Against bottom 10, have scored 3-5-4-4-1- at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLWWLWWDWL - 3 losses have come away. Sole draw this season came away 2-2 v Hannover - recent loss was away to Dortmund - not too bad.
GOAL TRENDS - 71% over 2.5 goals both home and away. 6 of the last 8 matches over 2.5 goals.Have only failed to score in 3 losses against top 7 .
STREAKS - 7 at home without a draw. Have scored in the last 4 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Augsburg
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDLWLL - sole win away v Mainz (13th) 1-0.Have lost away to 1st, 7th, 11th, 14th
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDDLWDLLLW - 2 wins have come against 12th and 13th. 5 losses and 2 draws in 7 home and away matches against top 9. In the losses conceded 2 minimum.
GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs away from home. 3 of the last 4 matches over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - 4 away without a draw, and 4 overall. Have lost last 2 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no recent head to heads so we may have a QPR v Chelsea shock but Augsburg are bottom for a reason! Schalke have scored - 3-4-4-5-1 against bottom 10.
71% overs for Schalke and 57% for Augsburg suggests an above average chance of over 2.5 goals.
71% overs for Schalke and 57% for Augsburg suggests an above average chance of over 2.5 goals.
5pm - FC Copenhagen v AGF - 1.61 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 02.10.2011 | D1 | FC København | 1-1 | AGF Aarhus | |
| 28.03.2010 | D1 | AGF Aarhus | 0-0 | FC København | |
| 07.03.2010 | D1 | FC København | 5-0 | AGF Aarhus | |
| 15.08.2009 | D1 | FC København | 0-1 | AGF Aarhus | |
| 19.04.2009 | D1 | AGF Aarhus | 1-0 | FC København |
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 4th of 12 after 17 matches. What chances a 3rd consecutive head to head draw?
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Copenhagen
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWWDLWW - sole loss at home against 2nd in the league.Have scored 2+ in 7 of 9 matches at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWWWWDLLWWLW - 2 of losses recently away to 5th and 10th.
GOAL TRENDS - 56% overs at home. Have scored in all home matches. All home matches over 1.5 goals. Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in only 1 match this season.
STREAKS - have scored in the last 9 at home 2 match home winning streak. No draw in 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - AGF
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDWWDDDW - away losses against 6th and 9th.Have already drawn 1-1 it seems away to Copenhagen on 2nd October(?)
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWDDDWDLW - recent loss home against 7th
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home. HAve scored in all away matches. Last 5 away matches overs. Last 9 matches under 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - no defeat in 7 away. Have scored in last 9 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - sole loss at home for Copenhagen against 2nd in the league. Have scored 2+ in 7 out of 9 matches this season at home. HAve only failed to score in 1 match this season. All home matches over 1.5 goals this season could hint at over 2.5 goals dependent on the time of 2nd goal. AGF have already drawn 1-1 this season ( in October) - tally that draw to the head to head draw prior and what chance of a 3rd draw - surely the probability will reduce with each new match.
AGF have scored in all away matches and last 9 matches were under 2.5 goals.
Conclusion - I would speculate on laying the draw today in the hope it does not reappear for a 3rd head to head in succession. Overs difficult as AGF's last 9 matches unders must be respected.
AGF have scored in all away matches and last 9 matches were under 2.5 goals.
Conclusion - I would speculate on laying the draw today in the hope it does not reappear for a 3rd head to head in succession. Overs difficult as AGF's last 9 matches unders must be respected.
8pm - Lyon v Toulouse - 1.76 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 01.05.2011 | D1 | Toulouse FC | 2-0 | Lyon | |
| 12.12.2010 | D1 | Lyon | 2-0 | Toulouse FC | |
| 07.02.2010 | D1 | Toulouse FC | 0-0 | Lyon | |
| 26.09.2009 | D1 | Lyon | 2-1 | Toulouse FC | |
| 30.05.2009 | D1 | Toulouse FC | 0-0 | Lyon |
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 6th so both teams off to a good start and as tight as head to heads. although Lyon have won at home.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Lyon
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWWWL - loss came against 4th and draw was v bottom.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLWLWLWLLW - no draw in all of those matches. - losses have come against 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 10th ,11th.
GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs at home - 5 of the last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in only 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - 6 at home without a draw, 12 overall - have scored in the last 7 at home, and last 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Toulouse
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWDLDL - losses against 11th and 16th away from home. draws against 7th and 8th. Have not played any of the top 5 away from home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDWLDDWLDW - only 3 losses v 2nd , 11th ( away) and 16th ( away).
GOAL TRENDS - 14.3% overs away from home. Only 3 matches over 2.5 goals this season. Have kept a clean sheet in 5 of the last 6 matches and failed to score in 5 of the last 7 matches.
STREAKS - 4 away without a win. Have failed to score in last 3 away matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 5th v 6th so both good form at the start of the season. Only one loss at home for Lyon was against 4th. No draw in 6 at home for Lyon and 1 overall. Lyon have only failed to score in 2 matches this season. Losses this season have come against 2nd, 3rd, 4th , 10th 11th. Draws against 7th and 8th away for Toulouse and have not played any of top 6 away yet.
Only 3 matches over 2.5 goals all season for Toulouse - have failed to score in last 3 away matches.
This last stat could be damning for Toulouse? THeir goals tally away is so poor. Again not a match which inspires as there is nothing absolutely standout to get our teeth into.
Only 3 matches over 2.5 goals all season for Toulouse - have failed to score in last 3 away matches.
This last stat could be damning for Toulouse? THeir goals tally away is so poor. Again not a match which inspires as there is nothing absolutely standout to get our teeth into.
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