Speculators would have chanced more problems for the big 6 after boxing day and laid Arsenal. The fact that gervinho scored and not Van Parsnips could have raised the argument for laying Arsenal until he scored ( of that makes sense)
Beware, I suppose, of this time of the year as form seems to be superceded by circumstance ( Xmas, congested schedule)
530pm - Aris Thes. v Doxa Dramas - 1.25 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 03.09.2011 | CF | Aris Salonica | 1-1 | Doxa Dramas |
Club friendly head to head in September.
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 16th. Aris have played 12 and Doxa have played only 7. Quite obviously the latter team are in a real terms false league position.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Aris
RECENT HOME FORM - LDDLW - recent win against Panathanaikos 3-1. Comprehensive. Where did that come from?Have not played any of the bottom 7 yet at home , and do remember that Doxa are in a false position.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLDDDLLWLWLD -only 2 wins this season, one against 2nd, the other 0-1 away to 7th
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overall this season over 2.5 goals. Typically greek, typically low scoring.2 of last 3 home matches overs were against Panathanaikos and Olympiakos. A case of really raising their game? Aris have failed to score in the last 2.
STREAKS - 2 at home without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team- DOXA
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLL - against 1st, 8th and 15th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLLLL - have only scored in one match this season. Have not played 9th to 14th inclusive away from home, today's opponents are 12th
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs away from home, but remember only 3 matches so this is highly misleading. Only 2 overs matches this season, albeit only 7 matches. Have only kept 1 clean sheet and that was the first match of the season
STREAKS - 3 match losing streak away, 6 match losing streak overall.Have conceded in last 6 and only scored in 1 of 7 this season.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
1-1
in Sept friendly
12th v 16th but Doxa played 5 less.
ARIS – only 1 win at home but 3-1 v Pana! Not played bottom
7 yet at home. Only 2 wins this season.
DOXA – DLLLLLL this season.6 match losing streak. Have
conceded in last 6 matches and failed to score in 6 of 7
GOALS – 33% overs for ARIS. DOXA only scored in 1 match this
season.
FORM LAB
Top 3 indicators
1)
– Home 2nd half lose v Bottom 6
2)
- Home 2nd
half lose v All
3)
HT score 0-0 v Promoted
Conclusion. Difficult to call goals wise with Aris scoring 2
and 3 recently against the might of Olympiakos and Panathanaikos. Generally
unders would be the call apart from this anomaly.
With Doxa scoring only 1 this season ( albeit played 5
matches fewer) and conceded in last 6, 1-0 would be the minimal home scoreline.
2 0-0’s at home for Aris against 6th and 9th might signal
an initial 0-0 back to lay?
745pm - Celtic v Rangers - 2.04 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 18.09.2011 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 4-2 | Celtic FC | |
| 24.04.2011 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 0-0 | Celtic FC | |
| 20.03.2011 | LC | Celtic FC | 1-2 AET | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 02.03.2011 | Cup | Celtic FC | 1-0 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 20.02.2011 | PR | Celtic FC | 3-0 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 06.02.2011 | Cup | Glasgow Rangers | 2-2 | Celtic FC |
Toss of a coin.Good record at home for Celtic.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 1st and only 1 point in it. Amazing considering how clear Rangers were earlier on.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Celtic
RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWWDWWWW - loss v St Johnstone and draw v Hibs.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWDWWWWWWWW - 8 match winning run. Lost away 2-4 to rangers.
GOAL TRENDS - 60% overs at home. 3 of last 4 under 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 4 of last 5 matches. have scored in last 8.
STREAKS - 4 match winning streak at home. 8 overall. No defeat in 11 overall. Have scored in last 8 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Rangers
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWWWWWLWL - recent away defeats to kilmarnock and St Mirren might make Rangers vulnerable? No draw away.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWDWWWDLWWWL -those defeats the only ones this season.
GOAL TRENDS - 40% overs overall this season. 3 of last 4 overs. Have only failed to score in 2 this season. How significant that these matches came within last 6?
STREAKS - 10 away without a draw, 5 overall. Have scored in last 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
Head to heads see Celtic unbeaten at home last 3.
Celtic – 1 loss at home v St Johnstone and 1 draw v Hibs
0-0. 8 match winning run overall. Have lost 2-4 to Rangers this season.
Rangers – losses v Killy and St Mirren in 2 of last 3
matches hint at vulnerability? Only 2 defeats of season. Have only failed to
score in 2 matches ( came within last 6).
Goals - 60% overs at
home. 3 of last 4 unders. Clean sheets in 5 of last 6. Have scored in last 8
matches.40% overs away from home for Rangers.
CONCLUSION – I prefer, in these matches, to go with a bookings
bet. Yes it is not tradable but has been ultra consistent. Celtic have the
advantage on recent form, but as you well know in these clashes anything can
happen. Celtic are unbeaten in last 3 Old Firm at home.
FORM LAB
Match outcome: Celtic have won 18/20 home matches and
they have had W/W double results in 15/19 home matches. Rangers have conceded
first in 6/8 away matches against Big Two teams.
TOP 3
INDICATORS
1)
Over 3.5 goals v Top half
2)
Both teams score v Big 2
3)
Home draw HT v Big 2
Clive’s note .What the indicator 1) has failed to notice
though is that Old Firm matches must be taken as wholly separate from other
matches.
745pm - Motherwell v Dunfermline - 1.52 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 27.08.2011 | PR | Dunfermline | 2-4 | Motherwell FC | |
| 07.05.2007 | PR | Dunfermline | 4-1 | Motherwell FC | |
| 31.03.2007 | PR | Motherwell FC | 2-0 | Dunfermline |
Only 1 recent head to head sees Motherwell win.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 12th. Even 3rd place is a mile away from 1st and 2nd points wise. Dunfermline are bottom.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Motherwell.
RECENT HOME FORM - WWLLWDLDD - 3 draws in last 4 saw 2 0-0's. Defeats at home have come against 1st, 2nd and 4th. 2 of the 3 wins v 9th and 10th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWWDWLWDWDL - inconsistent of late. WD sequence ended with a loss latest.Recent defeat at home to Celtic 1-2 and away to Motherwell 2-0.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs at home.Average 0.77 scored and 1 conceded at home. Only 1 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of last 7. Have failed to score in 2 of the last 4. Have scored 3-3-1-4 home and away against the bottom 3 sides.
STREAKS - 2 match home drawing streak. 4 at home without a win.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Dunfermline
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLLDWLLLL - wins v 4th, 6th and 11th all 0-1, so maybe a 0-1 cover bet today as insurance?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLWLLLDLLL - all wins away. All draws against bottom 5. Elsewhere defeats. Have conceded 2 or more in last 6 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 60% overs away from home. 68% overall. Last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 1 clean sheet in last 15. Failed to score in last 2.
STREAKS - 4 match away losing streak, 6 without a win overall. Have conceded in last 6 , conceding 2goals + in those matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - without over analysing, this looks fairly straightforward. Worse case for Motherwell is a draw. Dunfermline have conceded 2+ in last 6 matches and lost 6 of last 7 , and lost last 4 away. Motherwell scored 4 in head to heads and scored 3-3-1-4 against bottom 3 sides home and away. Motherwell have , though, failed to score in 2 of last 4 matches, but face an easier task today. They only lose v top 4 at home. Perhaps a cover on the 0-1 scoreline. This is the only scoreline enabling Dunfermline to score.
FORM LAB
• -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Motherwell home matches against bottom-six teams and -1.5 goals in 6/9 Motherwell such matches. Dunfermline have lost the first half in 7/10 away matches.
Top 3 indicators
1) - Most match goals first half v all
2) - Home win/win v all
3) - Home HT win v all
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