Wednesday, 14 December 2011

14th December 2011

Excellent analysis yesterday with 2 0-0's for concerted periods allowing a nice trade, and with Genoa match, laying 0-0 at halftime came good.


345pm - Trabzonspor v Genclerbirligi - 1.67 home
HEAD TO HEADS
20.03.2011D1Genclerbirligi1-2Trabzonspor
23.10.2010D1Trabzonspor3-1Genclerbirligi
06.03.2010D1Trabzonspor3-1Genclerbirligi
25.09.2009D1Genclerbirligi2-2Trabzonspor
17.04.2009D1Trabzonspor2-0Genclerbirligi
Trab seem to have the upper hand here, never scoring less than 2 in recent head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION- 9th v 11th after 14 matches.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - TRAB

RECENT HOME FORM - LWWDWLL - last 2 losses v 1st and 3rd without scoring. Indeed 3 losses at home were against 1st, 3rd and 6th , 2 0-1's and all without scoring. Have scored 2,2,3,3, against 8th, 12th, 16th and 17th at home suggesting a replication of head to head performances?

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDWWDLDL - again only 2 losses recently were as above at home against top 3.

GOAL TRENDS - 71% over 2.5 goals at home and have conceded in all home matches. Have only kept 2 clean sheets this season, both away.Have only failed to score against top 6 at home this season, suggesting Trab must score today.

STREAKS - 2 match home losing streak, no win in 4 overall. Have conceded in last 7 at home and last 5 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - GENCLE

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLLD - no win away.Heaviest defeats away, 4-0, 3-0, 3-2 have come against 13th, 15th, 17th.Have conceded against 7th and 10th away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWLWDDLW - cannot string together a winning run this season.With a win last match, does this suggest a DL today?

GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs away from home ( 2 out of every 3 matches overs)Only 1 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals , but 3 of those were away.Have failed to score in 2 of the last 3 matches, both at home against 1st and 2nd.

STREAKS - 6away without a win, have conceded in the last 4 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
4pm - Levadiakos v Olympiakos - 1.31 away
HEAD TO HEADS
07.02.2010D1Olympiakos Pireus5-1Levadiakos
03.10.2009D1Levadiakos0-3Olympiakos Pireus
05.04.2009D1Levadiakos1-2Olympiakos Pireus
Score more goals in last 2 matches than we would expect of 1.31 shots away from home.

LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 2nd and again we have the anomoly of a Levadiakos side who have only played 5 matches to Oly's 12. Why is that? And surely no proper comparative research can be conducted.
Oly away have scored 3,3,0,3,4 against the bottom 9 which ties in nicely with head to heads.

Only 2 matches at home for Levadiakos is inadequate to come to any conclusions.

EUROPA LEAGUE - the grave of many a betfair trader. I would recommend you reading the permutations of each match here at http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/news/newsid=1730574.html

As ever at this stage, in this competition, look for must teams from teams who want to take this competition seriously.

6pm - Besiktas v Stoke - 1.88 home - Qualification assured for Stoke so team news key - a draw or a win forStoke will ensure they win the group. Besiktas are normally strongly favoured by vociferous home support.
6pm - Dinamo Kiev v Maccabi Tel Aviv - 1.26 home - must win and must score 4 or more against already eliminated Maccabi.
6pm - Lazio v Sp Lisbon - 1.6 home - Sporting have won the group. Lazio equal with Vaslui so must get more points - likely weakened Lisbon side?
6pm - Paris St-G v Ath Bilbao - 1.61 home

• Athletic have won the group and Slovan are out.

• Salzburg are ahead of PSG on head-to-head away goals. Thus PSG need to pick up more points against Athletic than Salzburg manage in Slovakia and the Austrian team would ensure progress with victory.

Teams that don't need to win rarely do.

805pm - Fulham v OB - 1.25 home

• Twente have won the group and OB are out.

• Fulham are a point ahead of Wisła are have a superior head-to-head. Thus to finish second, Wisła must win and hope Fulham do not.

racing post relays Zamora out, Ruiz cuptied and Andrew Johnson unavailable.We could see Fulham at a far bigger price in play in this must win, so delay tactics, as I advised with Inter yesterday which worked a dream, could be the way to go.

805pm - Maccabi Haifa v Schalke - 1.94 home

• Schalke have won the group, the only one where no team are yet eliminated.

• Maccabi are a point ahead of Steaua and AEK so victory against Schalke would take them through. Maccabi will also progress regardless of their result if Steaua and AEK draw.

• If Maccabi do not win, either Steaua or AEK, under new coach Leon Vlemmings, can progress with victory.

An unmotivated Schalke side with nothing to play for away in Israel. But how worthy an opponent are Maccabi ?

805pm - Steaua Bucharest v AEK Larnaca - 1.62 home

• Schalke have won the group, the only one where no team are yet eliminated.

• Maccabi are a point ahead of Steaua and AEK so victory against Schalke would take them through. Maccabi will also progress regardless of their result if Steaua and AEK draw.

• If Maccabi do not win, either Steaua or AEK, under new coach Leon Vlemmings, can progress with victory.

2 teams who must win here and this may open things up for goals, or conversely lead to nervousness - you decide! 1 home match win for Steaua was against Maccabi 4-2.
1-0 win 0-0 away for AEK typically greek(ish).

805pm - Wisla Krakow v Twente - 2.18 home

• Twente have won the group and OB are out.

• Fulham are a point ahead of Wisła are have a superior head-to-head. Thus to finish second, Wisła must win and hope Fulham do not.

It's a tight Dutch top flight so surely Twente, away in Poland, will rest some first time regulars. Twente obviously the better side if head to heads anything to go by but again likely team changes. Wisla have not had a draw yet - significant in a must win match?

THURSDAY
1030am - Al Sadd (QAT) v Barcelona - 1.05 away - Fifa Club World Championship and if barca take this any way seriously, then this will be a massacre against some dodgepot Qatari side.1.05 signals goals galore so value seekers should hope for over 7.5+ goals . Look for a first team for Barca to bring this goals trade to fruition.
6pm - FC Copenhagen v Standard - 1.98 home

FC København will look to sign off from the UEFA Europa League for another season on a high as Group B winners R. Standard de Liège head for Denmark.

• The final standings were set in stone on matchday five, with the four teams all three points apart. Standard will finish top and FCK third regardless of results on matchday six.

A dead rubber with only pride to play for.

6pm - Hannover v Vorskla - 1.46 home

Hannover 96 lost their first UEFA Europa League game on matchday five and will look to get back to winning ways against FC Vorskla Poltava in Group B.

• Hannover are certain to finish second in the group while Vorskla cannot lift themselves off the foot of the section.

And another dead rubber here. You would think that the Bundesliga at the weekend is more important than a dead rubber?

6pm - PSV v Rapid Bucharest - 1.39 home

Already sure to finish top of Group C, PSV Eindhoven will look to end their UEFA Europa League group stage campaign on a high against FC Rapid Bucureşti.

• Second-placed Legia Warszawa cannot deny PSV top spot, but Rapid could move up to third place if they win and Hapoel Tel-Aviv FC fail to beat Legia.

And another dead rubber for the home side who seem awfully short considering this means little apart from playing infront of home fans.

6pm - Shamrock Rovers v Tottenham - 1.48 away

Tottenham Hotspur FC's UEFA Europa League prospects look bleak, but as they head to Shamrock Rovers FC for their last Group A game, there is some hope.

• A substantial win in Dublin – and defeat for FC Rubin Kazan at PAOK FC – could give the London side second place in the section, but Rovers will be eager to get their first points on the board.

Spurs have not taken this tournament seriously and another check is required for team selection. A defeat against Stoke at the weekend and any professional team does not want to lose 2 on the trot regardless.

Bookies sweet on Spuds doing something in Dublin against a Shamrock team yet to get a point.

805pm - AZ Alkmaar v Metalist - 1.56 home - Metalist top the group. AZ must win to get 2nd as Austria Wien play bottom side and have home advantage. AZ buzzing in the Dutch top flight. A hope they want to take this seriously as they are at home.
805pm - Atl Madrid v Rennes - 1.5 home

Club Atlético de Madrid will look to secure first place in UEFA Europa League Group I against a Stade Rennais FC side already resigned to elimination.

• Second-placed Udinese Calcio are two points behind Atlético, but can only overtake the Liga side if they win at home against Celtic FC and Rennes secure an unlikely victory in the Spanish capital.

Not a must win for the home side, but a " would be nice if we finished top" match.Rennes are out.Madrid guaranteed 2nd place.

805pm - Austria Vienna v Malmo FF - 1.5 home

FK Austria Wien could yet snatch a place in the UEFA Europa League round of 32 provided they get the better of Malmö FF in their final Group G fixture.

• Austria trail second-placed AZ Alkmaar by two points but have an identical head-to-head record. They would thus finish second if they win and AZ lose at home against FC Metalist Kharkiv – and could potentially do so if AZ draw, although they would need to beat the Swedish side by six or more goals.

805pm - Birmingham v NK Maribor - 1.55 home

Birmingham City FC must beat Group H's bottom side NK Maribor and hope SC Braga win at Club Brugge KV to make it to the UEFA Europa League round of 32.

• The Blues trail the top two in the section by three points but have an inferior head-to-head record in their games against Braga. However, they have a superior head-to-head record against Club Brugge and would finish second in the event that the two sides ended up with ten points apiece.

Must win for brum but how much more important is the Premiership return?

805pm - Udinese v Celtic - 1.63 home

Udinese Calcio will look to avoid UEFA Europa League disaster when they take on Celtic FC, the only side that can deny them a top-two finish in Group I.

• Udinese lead Celtic by three points but should the Italian outfit lose, the Bhoys would secure second place by virtue of a superior head-to-head record.

The bookies heavily favour udinese here which is rather dismissive of a Celtic side who can produce in Europe when they want to. Both sides ideally must win, although a draw for Udinese will suffice.

FRIDAY
730pm - B Munich v FC Koln - 1.16 home
HEAD TO HEADS
05.02.2011D11.FC Köln3-2Bayern München
18.09.2010D1Bayern München0-01.FC Köln
31.07.2010CFBayern München0-0/p.3-11.FC Köln
06.03.2010D11.FC Köln1-1Bayern München
03.10.2009D1Bayern München0-01.FC Köln
24.07.2009CF1.FC Köln0-2Bayern München
Koln have been in keeping with the unpredictability of the last head to heads this season. But Bayern at home have been devastating. 3 0-0's in the last 3 matches at Bayern is very surprising. Surely the 1.16 signals this sequence will end, and how!

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 10th. Bayern are 3 points clear at the top, and with the advantage of playing 1st this weekend, can lay down a marker for their pursuers.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bayern

RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWWLW - no draw at home. Defeats have come against 2nd and 4th , both 0-1, and given the propensity for 0-0's historically , a 0-1 will be the likeliest scoreline if Koln somehow engineer a win.Bayern have scored 4,3,4,5,4,7,keeping 5 clean sheets in the other home matches.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDWLWWLLWW - 2 of last 3 losses have come away, shock 3-2 defeat to Mainz the latest .Sole draw this season was a 0-0 so if Bayern score they will more than likely win.Have dropped points away to 8th,9th and 12th and playing 10th today, albeit at home

GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs at home.69% overs home and away.Bayern are averaging 3.37 goals scored at home. All bar 4 matches this season over 2.5 goals. 7 of last 8 over 2.5 goals. Bayern have conceded in their last 5 matches.Bayern have failed to score in their last 3. Bayern have conceded in their last 2 home matches. Bayern have conceded only 3 goals in the first half all season and scored 16 in the first halfhour.
STREAKS - 8 at home without a draw, 8 overall without a draw. Have scored and conceded in the last 3 matches overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Koln

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWLLLD - wins came against 6th and 13th, with 1-4 and 3-4 scorelines. Talk about out of the blue! Have lost 5-1 and 5-0 against 2nd and 3rd away from home, and lost 3-2 v 5th, which ties in with the 1.16 quote perfectly ( usually 3/4 goals minimum)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWLWLLDWD - last 4 wins have all come at home and without conceding but koln have played all of the top 5 home and away with the following scorelines 5-0, 5-1, 3-0 and 3-2 losses.

GOAL TRENDS - 100% overs away from home. Have conceded in all away matches this season. Only 4 matches this season were not overs but all featured 2 goals. Koln concede an average 3.14 away

STREAKS - 4 away without a win, no defeat in 3 overall.Have scored in the last 3 matches overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
815pm - Benfica v Rio Ave - 1.21 home - Betfair has this match on Friday but elsewhere it is on later on in the weekend so check it out yourself.
HEAD TO HEADS
08.05.2011D1Rio Ave1-2SL Benfica
26.01.2011CupRio Ave0-2SL Benfica
18.12.2010D1SL Benfica5-2Rio Ave
09.05.2010D1SL Benfica2-1Rio Ave
24.01.2010LCRio Ave1-2SL Benfica
09.01.2010D1Rio Ave0-1SL Benfica
Benfica have scored 2 minimum in last 5 matches.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 13th with 2nd place equal on points with Porto.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Benfica

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWW - have scored 4,3,3,2,4 in matches away from top 3 and the odds certainly suggest it.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWWDWWWDWW - draws all away v 1st, 4th and 8th.

GOAL TRENDS - 83% overs at home. Have scored in all matches this season 4 of last 5 matches under 2.5 goals include 3 1-0 wins for Benfica.Benfica have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 matches.

STREAKS - 6 match winning streak.No defeat in 12 overall and have scored in 12 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Rio ave

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLLL - contrasting away form from Rio Ave - have not played any of the top 4 away. 4 defeats have been by a single goal, either a 2-1 or a 1-0

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLLDLWLWLW - sequence of LW at present suggests an L will follow today ( as do the odds). Last 3 wins have all come at home against 8th and lower.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs away from home. 8 of last 9 matches have featured one of the teams scoring 2 goals.Of late, it seems a match will be unders with a 2-0 loss to Rio Ave.

STREAKS - 3 match losing streak away. 6 overall without a draw. Have conceded in the last 3 matches away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

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