HEAD TO HEADS
| 21.09.2011 | LC | Chelsea FC | 0-0/p.4-3 | Fulham FC | |
| 14.02.2011 | PR | Fulham FC | 0-0 | Chelsea FC | |
| 10.11.2010 | PR | Chelsea FC | 1-0 | Fulham FC | |
| 28.12.2009 | PR | Chelsea FC | 2-1 | Fulham FC | |
| 23.08.2009 | PR | Fulham FC | 0-2 | Chelsea FC | |
| 02.05.2009 | PR | Chelsea FC | 3-1 | Fulham FC |
Last 3 matches very tight, 2 in the Premiership. Under Woy, this is likely to replicate last home head to head.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 13th - in the battle for 3rd place, Spuds still holds an advantage of a game less played.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - CHELSEA
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLLWW - no draw at home. Defeats against Arsenal and Liverpool but a recent win over Man City should really boost Chelsea.Fulham are 13th, and Chelsea have beaten 9th, 10th, 11th and 14th 3-1, 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 . Scoring consistently yet still conceding in all wins against teams around Fulham's.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLLWLWWWDD - last 2 1-1 draws have come away via Wigan ( 90th minute equaliser) and Spuds, coming back from 1-0 down.
GOAL TRENDS - 100% overs at home largely down to conceding as well as scoring. Have failed to score in only 2 matches. last 2 matches unders , but the match v Spurs was very easily an over 2.5 goals trade. The 4 matches prior to these 2 1-1 draws were overs. And the general trend for chelsea this season is more over 2.5 goals than unders. Chelsea have scored in all home matches this season.
STREAKS - 2 match winning streak at home. 8 at home without a draw. Have scored in the last 8 at home and last overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - FULHAM
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLWDDL - sole win away was 0-2 against Wigan ( 3rd bottom).2 of 3 away draws were 0-0. In 4 defeats, Fulham have conceded 2 goals and failed to score in 3 of those matches. Have not played any of the top 4 away yet but drew 1-1 v 5th ( Arsenal)
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLWLDDWLWL - WLWL sequence currently signal a W if continuing. Only 4 wins this season, 3 of which came against bottom 5. Against top 5, 2-2 home draw v City, 0-5 home loss v Utd, 1-3 loss v Spurs home, 1-1 draw v Arse away.
GOAL TRENDS - 12.5% overs away from home. Have failed to score in 5 away matches Score 0.5 average away. 1 of last 6 unders. Have failed to score in 2 of the last 3.
STREAKS - 4 overall withotu a draw,
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no draw at home for Chelsea. London Derby.Only 1 win away for Fulham. 100% overs at home v 12.5% overs away from home. Potential for a win to nil for Chelsea, and don't be surprised, folks, with a late show again. Chelsea have the greater strength in depth so I would expect them to cope better with this busy period.
FORM LAB
• HT/FT: This derby has been dominated by Chelsea in recent years as they have won four of the last five matches with three W/W doubles. Although Chelsea have conceded in 7/8 home matches this term they have still won on six occasions and led at the break five times. Similarly, they have had W/Ws in 6/12 games hosting middle-third teams. Since 2008/09, Fulham have lost 13/18 winless trips to top-six finishers with 13 defeats and eight L/Ls.
Top 3 indicators
1) - most match goals 2nd half v all.
2) - home 2nd half draw v bottom half
3) - home score first v bottom half.
1pm - Southampton v C Palace - 1.52 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 25.10.2011 | LC | Crystal Palace | 2-0 | Southampton | |
| 13.04.2009 | LCh | Southampton | 1-0 | Crystal Palace | |
| 08.12.2008 | LCh | Crystal Palace | 3-0 | Southampton |
LEAGUE POSITION 1st v 8th and Saints need to keep winning with the Hammers so close.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Saints
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWWWWWD - lucky 2-2 with a 90th minute equaliser latest v Blackpool.All bar 2 matches at home, have Saints scored 2+.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDWWWWLWLDD - Last 4 defeats have been aways Only 1 win last 4 for Saints. Score draws against 7th and 9th, and playing 8th today.
GOAL TRENDS - 36% overs away from home. Saints have only failed to score in 2 matches this season, they happened to be the last 2 losses.
STREAKS - no defeat in 11 at home, and have scored in last 11 at home. Have conceded in last 5 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Palace.
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLWWWLLL - so no draws at home play no draws away. 3 match losing streak. Have not played top 3 away.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWDDLLDDLWW - last 3 defeats away against 5th, 11th and 13th. Last 2 wins both 1-0 away v 22nd and home v 14th.
GOAL TRENDS - 46% overs away from home. General unders trend this season. Have kept a clean sheet in the last 2 matches.
STREAKS - 11 away without a draw. have scored in last 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 1 draw recently at home plays no recent away draws. palace could be difficult to score against this season. Saints have only failed to score in 2 this season ( both away defeats). utilise this if trading reactively.
FORM LAB
• Match outcome: Southampton have won 6/7 home matches against top-half teams while C Palace have lost 11/19 away matches. C Palace have conceded first in 7/9 away matches against top-six teams.
1) Home win v all
2) Home score first v all
3) Most match goals 1st half v all.
3pm - Bolton v Newcastle - 2.72 home - strange to see Bolton favourites.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.02.2011 | PR | Newcastle Utd | 1-1 | Bolton Wanderers | |
| 20.11.2010 | PR | Bolton Wanderers | 5-1 | Newcastle Utd | |
| 01.03.2009 | PR | Bolton Wanderers | 1-0 | Newcastle Utd | |
| 23.08.2008 | PR | Newcastle Utd | 1-0 | Bolton Wanderers |
LEAGUE POSITION - 19th v 7th, so on current form, why are Newcastle not favs?
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - BOLTON
RECENT HOME FORM - LLLLLWLL - no draw at home. Sole in 5-0 v Stoke - where did that come from?Have only played the top 4 of the top 7 and lost the matches at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLWLLWLLLLLW - no draw overall this season. It is a huge sequence and must end at some stage. Against top 7, it's 7 losses from 7 so why on earth are Bolton favourites ( albeit marginally)
GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs at home and 82% overs overall. Only 3 matches unders this season and they were all 2-0 scorelines. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches this season. Have failed to score in 3 of last 5. In 13 defeats, Bolton have conceded 2 or more. In all wins, Bolton have conceded 1 or none.
STREAKS - 8 at home without a win, 17 overall. Have conceded in the last 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Newcastle
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDWWLDL - is the recent poor run a reason Bolton have nudged into favouratism?Loss v City, Draw with United and Loss v Norwich. Again, an over reliance on Demba Ba for goalscoring. 4-2 loss v Norwich recently a slight shock. Conceding 4 goals in what has otherwise been a tight away performance so far.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWWWLDLLDL - wheels have come off the unbeaten run of late - United , City and Chelsea the first 3 opponents, but Norwich, Swansea, and West Brom the other teams Against bottom 6, it's a reasonable record, 2 1-0 wins, a 2-1 win, 3-1 win and 0-0 draw.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs away from home - take our cues from opponents?General recent trend is for overs. 6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 2 of the last 4.
STREAKS - 3 away without a win, 6 overall. Have scored and conceded in the last 6 away matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - knee jerk - why are Bolton favs here? No draw overall for Bolton this season. Only 1 win at home. Can we lay the draw here until this sequence of Bolton's ends? 7 losses for Bolton against top 7 suggests we lay them? But there must be a reason they are marginal favourites and the market is so tight ( remember a few days ago I wondered why Mainz were so big in a German Cup match - turns out they lost easily). 82% overs overall for home team plays away team who have 6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals.
FORM LAB
• +2.5 goals: Neither side brings a great deal of form into this clash but Bolton did end their losing streak with a 2-1 victory at Blackburn on Tuesday. 14 of their 17 league fixtures this term have had +2.5 goals as have nine of Newcastle’s last 12. Bolton have persisted with an attacking approach under Owen Coyle despite their recent poor results. 22 of their 36 home games since he arrived have had +2.5 goals while 14 have had +3.5 goals. The hosts have also had +2.5 goals in 5/6 home games against sides that have lost their last league fixtures.
Top 3 Indicator
1) Most match goals 1st half v Top half
2) Home lose v top half
3) Home 2nd half win v Middle third
3pm - Liverpool v Blackburn - 1.26 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 05.01.2011 | PR | Blackburn Rovers | 3-1 | Liverpool FC | |
| 24.10.2010 | PR | Liverpool FC | 2-1 | Blackburn Rovers | |
| 28.02.2010 | PR | Liverpool FC | 2-1 | Blackburn Rovers | |
| 05.12.2009 | PR | Blackburn Rovers | 0-0 | Liverpool FC | |
| 11.04.2009 | PR | Liverpool FC | 4-0 | Blackburn Rovers |
Liverpool at home tend to win, but marginally last 2 matches,
LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 20th. Dependent on other results, Chelsea could break into that top 5 with a win.Blackburn still bottom.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Liverpool.
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDDDDW - frustrating draw sequence for Liverpool. Against the bottom 5, it;s 1-0 v QPR, 2-1 v Wolves, and 3-1 v Bolton.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDWDWDLWWD - only 1 defeat in 11 was a 1-0 away to fulham, care of an 85th minute Dempsey goal. Liverpool have not conceded more than 1 in last 12 matches. Strength in defense The prevalence of draws because Liverpool have not managed to turn defensive solidity into a win.
GOAL TRENDS - 25% overs at home and 24% overs overall. liverpool arekeeping it tight. They concede 0.76 on average overall, but score 1.17 overall on average. Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches. Only 4 matches all season over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - 8 at home without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Blackburn
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLDDDLL - no win away this season. All draws score draws, 3 of which were 3-3 against Norwich and Wigan. Have not played any of top 6 away but conceded 3 against 7th, 8th and 9th away from home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLDLDLWLLL - only 2 wins this season , and the win v Arsenal can be scrubbed off as pure luck. Last 3 defeats have all been 2-1.
GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs away from home. 77% overs overall. Have scored and conceded in all away matches. Have conceded in all matches this season.Last 6 matches overs. Have conceded 2 + goals in 8 of last 9.
STREAKS - 8 away without a win. No draw in 5 overall. Have scored and conceded in the last 8 away , have conceded in last 17 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no defeat at home plays an away team with no win away. Defence a strongpoint for Liverpool. Incongruous goal trends, generally unders for Liverpool and overs for Blackburn. Blackburn have conceded 2+ goals in 8 of last 9. Dare we hope for Liverpool to score 2 minimum?
FORM LAB
• Teams to score: Liverpool remain unbeaten at home this season but they have won just three of their eight games at Anfield. Moreover, they have struggled defensively as they have kept just two clean sheets. Both teams have scored in all eight of Blackburn’s away fixtures this term and also in 10/14 of their trips to top-half sides since 2010/11.
TOp 3 indicators
1) - Most match goals 2nd half v Bottom half
2) - Home win by 2+v Bottom half
3) - Home 2nd half win v Bottom Half.
3pm - Man Utd v Wigan - 1.17 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.02.2011 | PR | Wigan Athletic | 0-4 | Manchester United | |
| 20.11.2010 | PR | Manchester United | 2-0 | Wigan Athletic | |
| 30.12.2009 | PR | Manchester United | 5-0 | Wigan Athletic | |
| 22.08.2009 | PR | Wigan Athletic | 0-5 | Manchester United | |
| 13.05.2009 | PR | Wigan Athletic | 1-2 | Manchester United | |
| 14.01.2009 | PR | Manchester United | 1-0 | Wigan Athletic |
Wigan have trouble buying a goal in this fixture. The 1.17 is reflective of past 4-5-5 scorelines.
LEAGUE POSITION -2nd v 18th . United are only 2 points away from City.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Man utd
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLWDW - loss v City, and draw 1-1 v Newcastle after United scored first. Newcastle's goal care of a 2nd half penalty.United have only played 2 of bottom 11 at home
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDLWWWDWWWW - United have scored first in last 8 matches. City and Arsenal the only 2 sides to score more than 1 goal against United. United have beaten all of the bottom 12 , albeit only 2 home matches with 8 clean sheets. Draws, all 1-1 have come against 6th, 7th, 8th.
GOAL TRENDS - 63% overs at home. 2 of last 3 overs in a sequence of 12 matches where only 3 were overs. United have kept a clean sheet in 6 of the last 8 matches. United have scored in all matches this season. United have started scoring again after 5 matches scoring only a single goal.
STREAKS - United have scored in last 8 at home and in last 17 overall. No defeat in 8 overall.Current winning streak of 4.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Wigan
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLLLLWW - there really seems to be a concerted improvement from Wigan of late, which you will see below. 2 match winning run at home, both 1-2 against West Brom and Sunderland, which saw Wigan concede first in both of those matches.
RECENT OVERALL FORM -LLLLLLLLDWLWDD - look at the marked improvement last 6 matches. home draw 3-3 v Blackburn , 1-2 away win v Wigan, 0-4 away loss to Arsenal, 1-2 away win v WBA, home draw 1-1 v Chelsea, 0-0 home draw v Liverpool. Wigan's likely tactics look obvious. Get the prayer mat out, and hold for for as long as possible for a 0-0. No win against top 7 home and away
GOAL TRENDS - 63% overs away from home. A run of 4 overs ended last 2 draw matches. Wigan have only kept a clean sheet in 3 matches this season.
STREAKS - 7 away without a draw. 2 match winning streak away. Have conceded in last 7 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 5-0, 5-0, 4-0 for United recently in head to heads is expected for United given their 1.17 quote at home. The speculative amongst you might look to the Chelsea match and a 1-0 win for United, with 0-0 a long time scoreline ( this is highly speculative- United have regained their goalscoring touch of late, banishing the 1-0 losses to the past).
Correct score to nil, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 again for the speculative.
FORM LAB
• HT/FT: Man Utd have had W/W doubles in 19/27 home matches since 2010/11 and also in 7/8 league fixtures. Further, they have had W/Ws in 11/13 home matches against bottom-six sides since 2009/10 (13/13 wins). Wigan have lost 14/15 winless trips to top-three finishers since 2006/07 with L/Ls in seven of their last eight.
Top 3 Indicators
1) - Home win to nil v Bottom 6
2) - Home 2nd half win v Bottom 6
3) - Home score first v Bottom 6.
3pm - Sunderland v Everton - 2.58 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.02.2011 | PR | Everton FC | 2-0 | Sunderland AFC | |
| 22.11.2010 | PR | Sunderland AFC | 2-2 | Everton FC | |
| 27.01.2010 | PR | Everton FC | 2-0 | Sunderland AFC | |
| 26.12.2009 | PR | Sunderland AFC | 1-1 | Everton FC | |
| 03.05.2009 | PR | Sunderland AFC | 0-2 | Everton FC |
Everton unbeaten in head to heads and yet again we have a key position with a new manager for Sunderland. I will still not research Sunderland, although it is obvious that new manager syndrome, Sunderland have won 2 of last 3 and only lost 1-0 away at Spurs. Value may lie in opposing Everton and hope O'Neill continues his positive influence.
3pm - West Brom v Man City - 1.46 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 05.02.2011 | PR | Manchester City | 3-0 | West Bromwich | |
| 07.11.2010 | PR | West Bromwich | 0-2 | Manchester City | |
| 22.09.2010 | LC | West Bromwich | 2-1 | Manchester City | |
| 19.04.2009 | PR | Manchester City | 4-2 | West Bromwich |
Pre transfer market but City are more than capable of replicating last 2 wins to nil.
LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 1st. I was a little surprised to see West Brom in the top 10, albeit by their fingertips.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - West Brom
RECENT HOME FORM - LLDWLWLL - only 1 draw was a 0-0 v fulham. have played 4 at home v top 8 and lost all 4. Did score against 2nd and 3rd. Have only beaten 17th and 19th at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLLWLDLWW - defeats recently have come against Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs and Wigan. City certainly fit in the the first 3. And it is interesting that the only defeats are generally via the established top 6. Last 2 wins have come away.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home. 6 of the last 7 matches overs. have conceded in the last 9 matches.
STREAKS - 2 match winning run away. Have scored and conceded in the last 6. Have conceded in last 9 overall. 5 at home without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - MAN CITY
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWDWWWDL - draw v Liverpool and loss v chelsea saw City score first. Other draw was 2-2 v Fulham, City 0-2 up at halftime.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWWWWDWLWW - superb run ended v Liverpool and Chelsea , both top 6.
GOAL TRENDS - 88% overs away from home and 82% overs overall. Have scored in all matches this season.Average 3.11 goals scored overall this season. Only 3 matches this season under 2.5 goals. Clean sheets kept in last 2, City have recently had a tendency to concede just the one in most wins.
STREAKS - have scored in all matches .have conceded in last 4 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 2 wins for WBA against 17th and 19th makes them immediately opposable today.Have played 4 at home against top 8, and lost the lot. Likely over 2.5 goals. West Brom scored in their defeats against 2nd and 3rd so the hope is they can contribute against a City side in fine form, but conceding regularly. 1-2, 0-2, 1-3 away wins for the speculator?
FORM LAB
• 1st half outcome: Sunderland have been level at HT in 4/5 home matches and also in 4/7 games hosting middle-third teams. Similarly, Everton have had goalless first halves in 4/7 away matches this term and also in 5/8 trips to bottom-six sides.
Top 3 indicators
1) Home Draw/Lose v Bottom half
2) Home 2nd half lose v Bottom half
3) - Home lose to nil v Middle third
745pm - Stoke v Aston Villa - 2.04 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 23.04.2011 | PR | Aston Villa | 1-1 | Stoke City | |
| 13.09.2010 | PR | Stoke City | 2-1 | Aston Villa | |
| 13.03.2010 | PR | Stoke City | 0-0 | Aston Villa | |
| 19.12.2009 | PR | Aston Villa | 1-0 | Stoke City | |
| 01.03.2009 | PR | Aston Villa | 2-2 | Stoke City |
This has draw written all over it?
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 12th .
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Stoke
RECENT HOME FORM - DWDWLLWW - only 2 defeats have been 1-3 v 7th placed Newcastle, and 2-3 v 16th QPR.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLLLWWWWL - no draw recently. Great winning run ended almost inevitably v City.Wins over Blackburn, Everton, Wolves, and Spurs must see Stoke confident?
GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs at home. 8 of the last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in only 1 of last 9 matches .Have failed to score in only 5 matches this season.
STREAKS - 2 match winning streak at home. No draw in 5 at home and 11 overall. Have scored in last 7 at home and conceded in last 4 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Aston Villa
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDDLDLDW - sole win away came against Bolton 1-2.Draws have all come against 11th and below. Villa have not played 4th to 10th away so difficult to gauge how they perform against other than top 3 within the top 10.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLDWLDLWLL - only 3 wins recently, 2 at home v Wigan and Norwich, and 1-2 away v Villa.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 away overs. Have failed to score in 4 of last 6, but have scored in 2 of last 3.
STREAKS - 4 overall without a draw. Have conceded in last 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - very tough match to call for me may leave me reliant on the FORM LAB BELOW. Lay the draw? Villa have had a tendency recently for avoiding the draws that plagued them early season. Only 1 draw in last 7 overall for Villa despite being plagued with draws away. and Stoke have not had a draw overall in 11 matches and won 4 of their last 5. At home, tough to beat, perhaps Villa are layable, especially if scoring first.
50% overs for both means it's a toss of a coin for over/under 2.5 goals.
FORM LAB
• Match outcome: Despite their 3-0 loss at leaders Man City, Stoke remain in good form generally. The hosts have won four of their last five league fixtures including impressive victories against Spurs and at Everton. Since the start of last season they have won 14/27 home fixtures with nine W/W doubles. After going seven games unbeaten at the start of the season, Aston Villa slumped to their sixth defeat in 10 against Arsenal on Wednesday. Furthermore, the visitors are winless in 11 trips to middle-third teams since 2010/11 with five defeats. Since they gained promotion to the Premier League in 2008/09, Stoke are unbeaten at home to Villa with 2/3 wins.
Top 3 Indicators
1) - Home score last v Middle third
2) - Most match goals 2nd half v Bottom half
3) - HT Home score 1-0 v Bottom half
No comments:
Post a Comment