You see my change of tack here with no research - go to reactive trading. 3 successful reactive trades.
only recent head to heads but goalladen matches and Frankfurt scored 3.
530pm - Lech Poznan v Zaglebie Lubin - 1.35 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 05.08.2011 | D1 | Zaglebie Lubin | 1-1 | Lech Poznan | |
| 07.07.2011 | CF | Lech Poznan | 1-0 | Zaglebie Lubin | |
| 29.04.2011 | D1 | Zaglebie Lubin | 1-0 | Lech Poznan | |
| 16.10.2010 | D1 | Lech Poznan | 0-1 | Zaglebie Lubin | |
| 15.05.2010 | D1 | Lech Poznan | 2-0 | Zaglebie Lubin |
Very tight in recent meetings. On soccerstats and if the website has no more infections then it's full steam ahead.
LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 16th ( bottom side)
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Lech Poznan
RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWDL - defeats against 5th and 7th both 0-1 and have scored 4 goals against 10th and 14th - augurs well for visit of bottom side?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLWWDDLDLW - 3 draws recently all 0-0's against 2nd, 9th and 12th. If you feel squeamish about another 0-0, it can be included as an insurance bet.Lech failed to score in 5 of the last 6 matches but importantly, when we look at performance against the bottom 4 home and away, Lech have won 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 3-0 and drawn 1-1 with bottom away. That 1-1 does look anomolous in the context of performances against other lowlier teams.
GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs at home. Lech have failed to score in the last 2 matches and only scored 1 goal in last 3, but all 3 were clean sheets. 6 of last 7 matches under 2.5 goals because Lech found it difficult to score, but by the same token, kept a few clean sheets,
6 of the last 8 matches saw clean sheets - the 2 exceptions were 1-0 losses. Can we suggest if Lech win today, they could win to nil. Lech have failed to score in 5 of the last 6 , but I remind you of their performances against bottom 4.
STREAKS - 2 at home without a draw
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Zaglebie
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLLLL- no win away yet. 0-0 draw was against 7th and playing 6th today - dare we read anything into that?Lost 1-0 to 5th away and conceded 2+ in all other losses.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLWLLWLLL - no draw recently and all 3 wins have come at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 71% overs away from home.8 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals -the exceptions both 1-0 scorelines.HAve failed to score in 2 of last 3 matches, and have conceded 3-4-4 in the last 3 matches. Have only kept a clean sheet in 3 all season.
STREAKS - 4 match away losing streak.7 overall without a win, and no draw in 10 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
Head to heads tight -last 5 under 2.5 goals
LECH POZNAN - losses at home v 5th and 7th were 0-1, but scored 4+ against 10th and 14th.3 draws all 0-0's.
ZAG - no win away.Lost 0-1 v 5th and 0-0 v 7th - playing 6th today.
3 wins all came at home this season.
conceded 2+in away losses.
Lost last 4 away. 7 matches overall without a win. No draw in 10 overall.
GOALS - failed to score in 5 of last 6 matches. Against bottom 4, scorelines of 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 3-0, and anomolous 1-1 v today's opponents away.
CONCLUSIONS - head to heads and Zag's away performances against 5th and 7th suggests very tight matches, but what do we make of Lech scoring 3-4-5-3 against bottom 4 sides without conceding. Which of these do you trust? No congruency goals wise is there.
Those who believe in a tight match will go with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 perhaps and under 2.5 goals . If you think Lech will score 3+ then overs, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 correct scores.
It is difficult to choose as both arguments are valid.
6pm - Bursaspor v Fenerbahce - 2.58 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 03.04.2011 | D1 | Fenerbahçe SK | 0-0 | Bursaspor | |
| 29.10.2010 | D1 | Bursaspor | 1-1 | Fenerbahçe SK | |
| 22.02.2010 | D1 | Fenerbahçe SK | 2-3 | Bursaspor | |
| 11.02.2010 | Cup | Bursaspor | 3-1 | Fenerbahçe SK | |
| 04.02.2010 | Cup | Fenerbahçe SK | 3-0 | Bursaspor |
last 3 league matches all very tight.
LEAGUE POSITION - 13th v 3rd after 14 matches. A win takes Fener joint top, but not on goal difference.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - bursaspor
RECENT HOME FORM - WLWDDWL - losses against 2nd and 4th quite significant as playing 3rd today. This also makes the 2.58 for Fener somewhat appealing.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLLWLDDDDWLLD - only 4 wins this season and too many draws.Wins against 6th, 9th, 10th and 17th - 3 of those wins were at home. HAve played 3 matches home and away against top 4, and lost those 3 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs at home.Only 1 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals for Bursaspor- does this hint at another tight match as per historical head to heads. HAve kept a clean sheet in 4 of the last 6 matches.Have failed to score in 4 of the last 6 matches.
STREAKS - 3 overall without a win.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Fenerbahce
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWDLDL - losses against 1st and 12th - and playing 13th today.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDDWLWDWL - only 2 defeats this season have come relatively recently, so any turkish fans check out Fener missing key players? Against bottom 5 ( Bursaspor 6th from bottom), Fenerbahce have won 4 and drawn 1 0-0 home and away. 3 wins recently were all at home.No win in 4 away but were playing 1st and 2nd amongst those.
GOAL TRENDS - 57% over 2.5 goals away from home.Only 3 of the last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored and conceded in the last 2 matches.
STREAKS - 4 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
2 draws last 2 league head to heads significant?
BURS - lost v 2nd and 4th at home - significant as playing 3rd today. Overall wins v 6/9/10/17th.played 3 of top 4 home and away and lost all.
FENER - losses away v 1st and 12th came in last 5 matches. No win in 4 away but did play 1st and 2nd amongst those.
Overall, 2 defeats only this season. Against the bottom 5 ( Burs are 6th) it's 4 wins and a draw (0-0).
GOALS - 43% overs for Burs Only 1 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 4 of last 6 and failed to score in 4 of last 6. 57% overs and only 3 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals.
CONCLUSIONS - going by the form only, under 2.5 goals is a goer as is a 0-0 back to lay trade for as long as you dare - the longer you stay in, the more profitable the trade but the more likely a goal will scupper said trade!! Key stats - Burs have lost at home v 2nd and 4th. fener have beaten 4 of bottom 5 with a 0-0 draw ( Burs are bottom 6) .For me, I would look to lay Burs and reactively trade if they take the lead. I would speculate on a 1-1, 0-1 away win given the propensity for unders of late.
715pm - Eintracht Frankfurt v G Furth - 1.96 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 15.07.2011 | D2 | Greuther Fürth | 2-3 | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
| 24.01.2009 | CF | Greuther Fürth | 1-3 | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
| 05.08.2006 | CF | Greuther Fürth | 2-2 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 3rd after 17 matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team Eintracht frankfurt
RECENT HOME FORM - DDDWWWWW - unbeaten at home. Draws have come against 1st, 4th and 5th - very significant and a reinforcement for apparent tight match that we see in head to heads.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWWWWWDWWLW - sole loss of the season came away to 7th.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home reliant on opposition.Scored a massive 15 goals in last 1/4 hour of matches and conceded only 3 in that period. Inplay reactive traders take note that it is apparent advantage Frankfurt at the end of the match. 3 of the last 4 matches over 2.5 goals.16/17 matches this season over 1.5 goals. Have only failed to score in 1 match this season.
STREAKS - 5 match winning streak at home. No defeat in 8 at home.Have scored in the last 11 matches.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Greuther Furth
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWDDWDL - sole loss came in last match and was the first away match against top 3 ( of which Furth are 3rd) LD against top 4 away conceding 2 goals in both matches.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWDWWLDWLW - most recent losses against 8th and 1st. Any significance in the fact Furth have lost to 1st away and 2nd at home ( today's opponents) conceding 2+ goals on each occasion and losing by a single goal.
GOAL TRENDS - 63% overs away from home.Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 matches ( both home matches).Have only failed to score in 1 match this season.
STREAKS - Have scored in the last 4 away and last 9 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 2nd v 3rd means this is a tight match. Head to heads suggest goals and both sides have only failed to score in a single match all season long.EF are unbeaten at home, and on a 5 match winning run. Only 1 loss all season was away to 7th.50/50 overs for EF and 63% overs for GF . Most recent matches for both were over 2.5 goals. 16 of EF's last 17 matches over 1.5 goals again suggests the possibility of at least both teams scoring.
Key? - Well interesting that GF have lost to 1st and 2nd conceding 2+ and losing by a single goal scoreline. Similarly, GF have LD v top 4 away from home.
I would look to both sides scoring, I would hope for overs ( based on timing of 2nd goal) I would lay Greuther Furth ( GF) here given their record against the top 4.
745pm - Roma v Juventus - 2.06 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 03.04.2011 | D1 | AS Roma | 0-2 | Juventus FC | |
| 27.01.2011 | Cup | Juventus FC | 0-2 | AS Roma | |
| 13.11.2010 | D1 | Juventus FC | 1-1 | AS Roma | |
| 23.01.2010 | D1 | Juventus FC | 1-2 | AS Roma | |
| 30.08.2009 | D1 | AS Roma | 1-3 | Juventus FC | |
| 21.03.2009 | D1 | AS Roma | 1-4 | Juventus FC |
Could swing either way based on head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 11th v 2nd - Juve will go top with a win.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Roma
RECENT HOME FORM - LDWWLW - losses have come against 3rd and 8th. Wins have come against 6th, 13th and bottom . Vulnerable to top 8 sides?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWLLWWLL - all bar one of the defeats this season has come home or away against top 8.Only 2 draws this season, one at home and 1 away.LLWW sequence, if continued, sees a win today.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home. Have scored in all matches at home. Have failed to score in last 2 matches , both away against 1st and 14th. Have conceded the most goals, 8, in last quarter of an hour.
STREAKS - lost the last 2 away. No draw in 10 overall. Have conceded in last 3 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Juventus
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDWWD- draws have come against 5th, 9th and 15th.,Wins against 4th, 10th, and 17th 2 of those wins were 0-1's
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDDWDDWWWWDW - unbeaten this season 5 wins in last 6 matches, the last 3 wins without conceding a goal.Have conceded 1 goal in 3 matches against teams around Roma's in the league. So if Juve win today, could be a win -1 goal , such as 2-1.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home.2 of last 3 matches unders.Juve have kept a clean sheet in 3 of the last 4 matches.Juve have failed to score in only 1 match this season.
STREAKS - 13 overall without defeat. Have scored in the last 7 away matches. Best case for Juve therefore a 0-1 away win?
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to heads inconclusive - Juve are 2nd.
ROMA - home losses v 3rd and 8th. Wins v 6th, 13th and bottom. Vulnerable to top 8?
Overall all bar 1 of the defeats came home and away against top 8.No draw in 10 overall.
JUVE - unbeaten all season. Draws against 5th, 9th and 15th and wins against 4th, 10th and 17th. 2 of the wins were 0-1 - might Juve struggle if they win?
5 wins in last 6 overall. Last 3 wins were to nil.
GOALS - 67% overs at home. Scored in all at home. Conceded 8 goals in last 1/4 hour. 33% overs away from home2 of the last 3 matches unders. Have kept clean sheets in 3 of the last 4 matches. Have scored in the last 7 away.
CONCLUSIONS - 2.06 away relays an unease amongst the market makers and suggests if Juve do win it will likely be a single goal win. Goals are inconclusive .Roma may be vulnerable against top 8 and with Juve on a solid winning run, laying Roma is the obvious choice, particularly if they score first. 0-1 Juve win the best case I would suggest ( 3 clean sheets in last 3 wins and 3 of last 4 matches). 2 of the away wins were 0-1 too.
All defeats bar 1 for Roma were against top 8.
8pm - Chelsea v Man City - 2.52 home - another clash which suggests the best team on the day will win. Always tough to call ( as the odds suggest) and the market sees Villa Oh Arse's Chelsea slight favourites although for me this screams out to be layed initially , given Chelsea's propensity largely for late goals.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 20.03.2011 | PR | Chelsea FC | 2-0 | Manchester City | |
| 25.09.2010 | PR | Manchester City | 1-0 | Chelsea FC | |
| 27.02.2010 | PR | Chelsea FC | 2-4 | Manchester City | |
| 05.12.2009 | PR | Manchester City | 2-1 | Chelsea FC | |
| 15.03.2009 | PR | Chelsea FC | 1-0 | Manchester City |
the relevance of these head to heads in a post transfer window match is questionable.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 1st.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Chelsea
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLLW - no draw at home. Chelsea have conceded in all home matches bar the 3-0 win v Wolves last home match. Very interestingly, when current top 6 visit, it's 3-5 loss v Arsenal and 1-2 loss v Liverpool. Coincidence or a signal of vulnerability against the best for the Chelsea Pensioners.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWLWWWLLWLWW - only one draw this season suggests an obvious tactic from Oh Arse!3 of 4 losses this season against 2nd away, 4th at home and 6th at home. Also suggests Chelsea could concede 2+ today and City are certainly able to score 2+ with their best XI out. Have Chelsea made a concerted effort to improve defence?Clean sheets in 3 of last 4 - clean sheet v Blackburn, Wolves and Newcastle, and that 4th game saw one of the top sides, Liverpool, win 1-2.
GOAL TRENDS - 100% overs at home and have conceded in all bar one home match. 100% overs in top 6 losses. Have kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 4 matches but questionable opposition. Chelsea have failed to score in only 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - 2 match winning streak overall. No draw in 13 overall. Have scored in the last 7 at home, and last 5 overall. Clean sheet in last 2 matches.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Man City
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWDWWWD - Fulham draw saw City 0-2 up at halftime. Liverpool draw saw City score first as I had hoped. The equaliser was a Lescott own goal. City beat Spuds and United 1-6 and 1-5 but were these early season anomolies? Surely it is too much to expect Chelsea to concede 5+? It will offer a highly speculative decent odds bet which may be unlikely to come to fruition.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWDWWWWWWWDW - unbeaten this season and the longer this sequence continues, the more likely it will end eventually.
GOAL TRENDS - 85.75 over 2.5 goals home and away. 2-0 v Everton and 1-1 v Liverpool the only under 2.5 goals matches.The Liverpool match was a successful overs trade. City have conceded in all bar 1 away match this season. City have scored and conceded against top 6 .City have scored in all matches this season.
STREAKS - no defeat in 14, have scored in last 14 overall, have conceded in last 3 away and last 7 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS- head to heads are irrelevant pre transfer market.
Chelsea's 2 home losses v top 6 sides.Only 1 draw all season for Chelsea suggests home or away win. 3 out of 4 losses all season were against 2nf away, 4th home and 6th home - again vulnerable to top 6? Also conceded 2+
CITY - unbeaten all season. All wins bar 2 draws - 0-2 up v Fulham and 1-1 v Liverpool ( the odds similar to today's could relay market's suggested opposition of City?) - City did score first v Liverpool. No defeat in 14 for City. They have scored in the last 14 and conceded in last 7.
GOALS - 3 clean sheets for Chelsea in last 4 vut questionable opposition compared to City. 100% over 2.5 goals at home as conceded in all bar 1 at home. failed to score in only 2 all season. 87.5% overs overall this season. All bar 1 match this season overs. conceded in all bar 1 this season. Scored and conceded in all v top 6.
CONCLUSIONS - these big boy matches can be unreadable. Is there a vulnerability with Chelsea v top 6? Will City score first again? This may be a match to watch and wait? Both teams will not want to concede. Chelsea renowned late late show experts which suggests an initial lay and a hope that, while we wait, City score first. Is the Arsenal v City Carling Cup match a hint of City's away tactics v the big boys ( albeit team changes). If so then back 0-0 initially for as long as you dare.
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