8/12

Today's matches are Italian and Spanish Cup matches predominantly and are therefore not worthy of research as we do not know ( well you might if you are fans of Juve, Ath Madrid, Bilbao) about possible team changes. There is one match in the Turkish league I want to research.

4pm - Ankaragucu v Bursaspor - 1.88 away

HEAD TO HEADS

21.03.2011	D1	Bursaspor	0-0	MKE Ankaragücü
24.10.2010	D1	MKE Ankaragücü	1-5	Bursaspor
07.02.2010	D1	MKE Ankaragücü	0-0	Bursaspor
22.08.2009	D1	Bursaspor	1-0	MKE Ankaragücü
11.04.2009	D1	Bursaspor	2-0	MKE Ankaragücü

LEAGUE POSITION - 18th v 10th after 13 matches - bottom v 10th

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Ankar

RECENT HOME FORM - LLLLLW - sole win came against 3rd from bottom. 1st, 6th, 8th, 9th, 14th - the 5 losses so surely 10th have a chance away today. 3,2,2,2,2 conceded in those matches.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLDWLL - recent draw against 2nd bottom and the win, as above against 3rd bottom. So vulnerable outside of the bottom 3?

GOAL TRENDS - 83% over 2.5 goals , 77% overall.Ankar have conceded in all matches this season.Only 3 matches under 2.5 goals this season were all 2 goal matches, 1-1 and 2 2-0 losses. Ankar have only failed to score in 3 matches this season.

STREAKS - 6 without a draw.Have conceded in last 6 at home.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bursaspor

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDDL - losses away v 14th and 16th 3-0 and 3-1!! Hmmm, interesting.The other loss was against 1st in the league.Draws against 6th and 9th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLDDDDWLL - In the last 8 matches, Bursaspor have scored 1,1,1,0,0,1,1,0 -they really have trouble scoring, and have only scored more than 1 goal in a single away match.

GOAL TRENDS - 67% over 2.5 goals away from home. Remember the above poor goalscoring record recently.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this looks an interesting match where we can make an argument for opposing Bursaspor on current form. They started the season excellently scoring 2+ several times. But suddenly, in their last 8, Bursaspor have scored 1,1,1,0,0,1,1,0. And they have lost 3-0 and 3-1 away to 14th and 16th. Now 18th ( bottom) may just be unable to replicate 3 goals.By the same token, Ankar have only failed to score in 3 matches this season. I see both sides scoring today and a possible 2-1 to either side? At any rate, we should hopefully get a run for our money re overs ( 83% and 67% respectively home and away over 2.5 goals).

I would opt for a highly speculative 2-1, 1-2, 1-3 correct score. The betfair market has the over 6.5 goals market and correct score 2 markets so they expect ( or hope for) goals.