Straightforward for the Saints.
My knee jerk reaction that the odds for Bolton were plain wrong, and they should never have been favs was borne out by geordies winning 0-2.Again Bolton and draws avoid each other like John Terry and intelligence.Overs a success? well I am not sure. With goals coming in the 69th and 71st minute, 19 minutes left, I suppose a successful over 2.5 goals trade . And Demba Ba scored again! Get em while they're hot!!
Liverpool poor. Enhanced bet though once Blackburn took the lead. A success for reactive trading rather than opinion based trading. Liverpool having trouble scoring 2 in a game., an average of 1.17 pointed out by me yesterday.
Man Utd, thanks to a ridiculous Wigan red card, won and got one of my speculative correct scores ( 5-0). It went exactly as a 1.17 bet should. Always look to goals.
Sunderland v Everton I did not research and O'Neill factor saw Sunderland take the lead, so his impact is wholly positive.
0-0 West Brom a testament to strong defending and tinkering from City. Not their strongest side out . Overs out of the window. Ditto the Stoke v villa match, Villa layable I said and anyone following that would have success. Laying the draw a loser.
All in all, the Xmas period is unique and tough to call with so many matches, but I think we can take our cues today from yesterday's results. Arsenal MUST take advantage of Chelsea, City, Liverpool drawing.
215pm - Sheff Utd v Notts Co - 1.81 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 27.07.2010 | CF | Notts County | 0-1 | Sheffield Utd | |
| 01.08.2006 | CF | Notts County | 0-0 | Sheffield Utd |
2010 the last head to head.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 9th. Charlton seem clear , but 2nd up for grabs and the Blades bang in there.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team- Sheff utd
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWLWLDWDWW - only 2 home losses have come against 1st and 4th suggesting Blades can cope outside of the top 5. Wins against 7th, 8th, 11th and 12th without conceding.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLWLLDWDWDLWWWW - last 4 wins to nil. Only 4 defeats all season, 3 of which have come against the top 6.
GOAL TRENDS - 73% overs at home. Only 1 of the last 4 have been over 2.5 goals. Clean sheet last 4 matches. Only 3 matches all season without scoring, and they were all defeats.
STREAKS - 4 match winning streak. Have scored in the last10 matches and 4 match clean sheets.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Notts County
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDWLWDLLL - only 3 wins away have come against 6th and 8th and 24th . Playing 5th overall. Have lost away to 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Which way will it swing. 5th ( Sheff Utd) is right in the middle of a LLLWW streak.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWWDDLDLWLL - only 1 win in last 8 matches. And again we ave a head scratcher. Playing 5th today, have lost 4 matches home and away out of 4 against the top 4. But then 2 wins and a 1-1 draw against 6th, 7th, and 8th. What is it to be? Recent form would point to the former.
GOAL TRENDS - 64% overs away from home. 67% overs overall. 8 of last 11 matches over 2.5 goals. Have only failed to score in 3 matches this season. Recently away from home, it's a Chelsea like late late show from Notts County. In the last 5 matches, there has been an 88th minute goal for County ( own goal), 80th minute penalty, 90th minute own goal, 90th minute goal, and failed to score last match. So watch out, if you want to speculate, on Notts county potentially getting a late late goal.
STREAKS - 4 away without a win, have conceded in the last 6 away and last 9 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the goal trends point to overs but with the Blades keeping clean sheets both at home and in last 4 matches overall, it might not pan out as overs. With Notts county scoring late, perhaps under 2.5 goals over 90 minutes might come about? Which County will turn up? Remember they are playing 5th today but have lost against top 5, but a draw and 2 wins v 6th to 8th inclusive. Sheff Utd have scored in last 10 overall against a County team who have conceded in the last 9 overall. I would expect Sheff Utd to score first
FORM LAB
• Match outcome: Sheffield Utd have won 7/11 home matches while Notts County have lost 7/9 away matches against top-six teams. Notts County have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.Top 3 indicators
1) - Home win v all
2) - Most match goals 2nd half v all
3) - HT score 0-0 v Top half
3pm - Arsenal v Wolves - 1.24 home. At first glance, this looks like a WBA v City, A Liverpool v Blackburn. certainly Wolves, on their day, could pose a threat, and remember my theory about Robin Van Persie and an immense over reliance on him. Keep him quiet, and you are likely to get something out of the game.If he scores, Arsenal have won of late.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 12.02.2011 | PR | Arsenal FC | 2-0 | Wolverhampton | |
| 10.11.2010 | PR | Wolverhampton | 0-2 | Arsenal FC | |
| 03.04.2010 | PR | Arsenal FC | 1-0 | Wolverhampton | |
| 07.11.2009 | PR | Wolverhampton | 1-4 | Arsenal FC |
Wolves have failed to score in last 3.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 17th and a chance for 3rd ( well Spuds will be on equal points and have greater goal difference)Wolves are out of the bottom 4 regardless today.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Arsenal
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWWDW - sole loss v Liverpool. In 5 of the last 6 matches, Van persie has scored at least 1. Guess which match he did not score in. yes, the draw!
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWWWWDWWLW - last 4 defeats all away v United, Blackburn, Spurs and City. Now look at the Van Persie factor overall. In the last 9 wins, Van persie has scored. In the last 3 defeats, and draw, Van Persie did not score.The loss against Blackburn we can draw a line through. Against bottom 3 ( yes I know Wolves are 4th bottom), it's 0-4 win, 3-0 win, and 3-4 loss . Arse scoring 3+
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 at home overs. Apart from the Liverpool match, Arsenal have not conceded more than 1 at home. Only 2 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals .The general season long trend is for over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in only 3 matches this season. The opponents lead at half time in only 17.6% of matches.
STREAKS - 7 at home without defeat. Have scored in last 7.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Wolves.
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDLLLLLL - 6 match losing streak. Have lost away to all of top 10 they have played. Against the top 4, conceded 3-4-3.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLWLLWLLD - last 2 wins have come at home. All positive results ( draws/wins) have come against bottom 10 sides.
GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs away from home and 77% overall. 12 of last 13 matches over 2.5 goals. Wolves only kept 2 clean sheets in 2nd and 3rd games of the season.Average 1.11 goal per match. Lead in only 12% of matches at halftime. Have conceded 2 or more against all of top 10 in 9 out of 9 defeats.
STREAKS - 6 match losing streak away from home. Have conceded in the last 14 matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
ARSENAL – I
keep harping on about it but the simple fact is that if Van Persie does not
score, Arsenal tend not to win. I would suggest he will not be rested over this
Xmas period. IF he is rested, then 1.24 is eminently layable. IF we take the
pattern from boxing day, then the underdogs will be dour and defensive and
tough to break down. This further enhances the argument for a lay of Arsenal
initially at least.
Wolves have
not scored in the last 3 head to heads
ARSENAL –
in 5 of last 6 home matches, Van Parsnips has scored at least 1. In the match
he failed to score, Arse drew .In last 9 wins overall, Van Parsley has scored,
in last 3 defeats and draw, he failed to score. Against bottom 3 ( noting
Wolves are 4th bottom), Arsenal scored 3-3-4 goals.
WOLVES – 6 match
away losing streak. Have conceded 3-4-3 against the top 10.Last 2 wins overall
have come at home. All positive results have come against bottom 10
GOALS – 50/50
overs for Arsenal suggests we take cues from opponents.Failed to score in only
3 this season. Arsenal likely not to be losing at half time. 75% overs for
Wolves. Wolves have conceded in all bar 2 this season
CONCLUSION –
this looks strongly Arsenal’s to win by ¾, but speculators might like to be
contrary here given yesterday’s shocks. Back 0-0, lay Arsenal if you expect
Arsenal to struggle as Liverpool/Man City/Chelsea did, or go with form and over
3.5 goals, 3-0, 3-1, 4-0 correct scores. Van Persie must play for Arse backers.
FORM LAB
FORM LAB
• 1st half outcome: Arsenal will expect to continue their good form with another win here. The hosts have won 8/10 league games although they have been level at the break on six occasions. Similarly, they have drawn the first half in 6/8 home fixtures this term (four D/Ws) and also in 6/9 home games against bottom-six sides since 2010/11 (five D/Ws). Wolves are yet to lead at half-time on the road this term but they have been level four times.
Top 3 indicators
1) - Home draw/win v bottom 6
2) - Home win v bottom half
3) - Home 2nd half win v All
5pm - Swansea v QPR - 2.08 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.12.2010 | LCh | Queens Park Rangers | 4-0 | Swansea City | |
| 19.10.2010 | LCh | Swansea City | 0-0 | Queens Park Rangers | |
| 20.03.2010 | LCh | Queens Park Rangers | 1-1 | Swansea City | |
| 03.10.2009 | LCh | Swansea City | 2-0 | Queens Park Rangers |
Championship head to heads irrelevant now.
LEAGUE POSITION - 15th v 16th - and the odds suggest too this will be a tight match.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team -
RECENT HOME FORM - DDWWWLDW - the only defeat v Man utd suggests Swans will get something out of other than top 7 fixtures. In 6 home matches, Swansea have not conceded. In 3 though, they have not scored. the strength, therefore, lies in defensive solidity. Only Bolton and United have scored at home against Swansea.The Bolton goal was an own goal!
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWLDWDLDLWDL - talk about inconsistent.Majority of losses occur away from home.Draws seem to pervade around teams near QPR's in the league.
GOAL TRENDS - 25% overs at home. 6 of the last 7 matches under 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 5 matches. Have failed to score in 5 of last 7 matches.
STREAKS - clean sheet last 2 at home. Have failed to score in last 2 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - QPR
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWLLWLL - no draw away for QPR. Have beaten 8th, 10th and 17th away from home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDWLLWLDLLL - last 2 wins came against Chelsea and Stoke.No win in 5 with 4 defeats to Norwich, Liverpool, Man Utd, Sunderland.
GOAL TRENDS - 63% overs away from home. Only 1 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals.Have failed to score in 2 of the last 3.
STREAKS - 8 away without a draw and have conceded in the last 8 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
SWANSEA –
only defeat v Man Utd at home. Have not conceded in 6 home matches. Only Bolton
and United have scored against Swans at home , and Bolton goal was an own goal.
QPR – no draw
away for QPR. 4 defeats recently overall v Norwich, Liverpool, Man Utd and
Sunderland. Now Swansea are surely on parity with Naaarich and Sunderland
GOALS – 25%
overs at home for Swansea recounts tough defensive capabilities.Kept a clean
sheet in 3 of last 5 and failed to score in 5 of last 7 matches. 63% overs away for QPR but only 1 of the last 4
matches overall were overs. And they have failed to score in 2 of the last 3. Have
conceded in last 8.
Conclusion.
I see advantage Swansea here with their strong defensive strengths at home. And
the possibility of unders very much on the cards. 0-0 back to lay initially.
Speculators perhaps a 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 scoreline?
FORM LAB• -2.5 goals: Swansea have the best home defensive record in the league as we approach the midway point of the season. The hosts have let in just two goals in eight games while they have been goalless at half-time on five occasions (six -2.5 goals). Swansea have also had -2.5 goals in 6/7 league games. QPR have also struggled for goals this season. They have scored more than once in just 4/17 league matches with nine -2.5 goals games.
Form Lab agrees with me on the unders.
730pm - Norwich v Tottenham - 1.8 away - knee jerk and Spurs look a big price here. Do be wary today of team changes..
HEAD TO HEADS
no recent relevant head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 11th v 3rd. Now Spurs have 2 matches in hand over United and City who are on 45 points. If Spurs win these 2 games in hand they will have 41 points and be primarily placed to compensate from any Madchester slippages.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Naarwich
RECENT HOME FORM - DLWWDLWW - defeats have come against 5th and 9th at home. Have not played any of the top 4 at home just yet. Wins against 7th and draw against 8th but I suspect the top 4 are a step above.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDLLWLWDD - losses come against Man utd, villa, Arsenal and City of late, not too shabby. Recent draws, both away, v Everton and Wolves.
GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs at home. Have conceded in all matches this season. Only unders at home v 8th and 9th. 7 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals include a 1-1 which was not a profitable over 2.5 goals trade.Norwich have failed to score in only 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - 2 match winning streak against Qpr and Newcastle. The latter surely must give them confidence. Have scored and conceded in last 6 matches at home. Have scored in last 10 overall and conceded in last 17 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Spurs
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWDWWWL - defeats away have come against Man Utd and Stoke - surely the Stoke result can offer Norwich some hope?HAve scored 2+ in 6 of last 8 matches.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWWWWWWLWD - loss v Stoke and draw v Chelsea recently. 2 defeats have come against 1st and 2nd, with the 3rd away to 9th. Have beaten all teams, 9th and below, home and away, only failing to score 2 or more in one match.
GOAL TRENDS - 88% overs away from home. 75% overall. Spurs score first in 75% of matches.Overall trend is for overs despite last 2 matches being unders.Have failed to score in only 1 match this season.
STREAKS - have scored and conceded in the last 6 away and have scored in the last 15 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
NAAAAAAAAARRRRRICH
v SPURS
DELIA’S
BOYS – home defeats have come against 5th and 9th at
home. Have not played top 4 at home yet. Losses overall recently v Man Utd, Villa, Arsenal and City of late, not
wholly shocking.
SPURS – I think
Adebayour and Van Der Fart are key here for Spurs. They seem weakened
offensively if these 2 are rested. Defeats away v Man Utd and Stoke – the latter
giving Norwich hope? Overall , have beaten all teams 9th and lower,
only failing to score at least 2 goals once.
GOALS – 75%
overs for Naarich.Have conceded in all this season. Failed to score in only 2
this season.Spurs have scored 2+ in 6 of last 8 away matches. 88% overs away
from home for Spurs. Spurs have scored first in 75% of matches this season.
Failed to score in only 1 match this season.
Conclusion.
The Spurs scoring first in 3 out of every 4 matches stat is compelling. It’s a
nice price for Spuds. If they win, I see a 1-2, 0-2 scoreline, something like
that. Over 2.5 goals looks very congruous.
This was
the case in the City match yesterday so be very careful over this Xmas period.
I can only go on form , form does not account for the context in which the
match is played ( as part of a congested fixture list).Both teams have a chance
of scoring. Reactive traders get involved if Norwich score first. They tend to
concede if leading first.
FORM LAB
• +2.5 goals: Norwich have impressed this season but they have been fortunate to face just one of the top-six at home so far. They have won four and drawn two of their eight at Carrow Road but lost 2-1 hosting Arsenal. Their last six at home have had +2.5 goals. Spurs have had +2.5 goals in 7/8 away games this season as both teams have scored in their last six. Since 2010/11, 7/10 of their away matches against middle-third clubs have had +2.5 goals.
FORM LAB
• +2.5 goals: Norwich have impressed this season but they have been fortunate to face just one of the top-six at home so far. They have won four and drawn two of their eight at Carrow Road but lost 2-1 hosting Arsenal. Their last six at home have had +2.5 goals. Spurs have had +2.5 goals in 7/8 away games this season as both teams have scored in their last six. Since 2010/11, 7/10 of their away matches against middle-third clubs have had +2.5 goals.
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