Thursday 15 December 2011



FRIDAY
730pm - B Munich v FC Koln - 1.16 home
HEAD TO HEADS
05.02.2011 D1 1.FC Köln 3-2 Bayern München
18.09.2010 D1 Bayern München 0-0 1.FC Köln
31.07.2010 CF Bayern München 0-0/p.3-1 1.FC Köln
06.03.2010 D1 1.FC Köln 1-1 Bayern München
03.10.2009 D1 Bayern München 0-0 1.FC Köln
24.07.2009 CF 1.FC Köln 0-2 Bayern München
Koln have been in keeping with the unpredictability of the last head to heads this season. But Bayern at home have been devastating. 3 0-0's in the last 3 matches at Bayern is very surprising. Surely the 1.16 signals this sequence will end, and how!

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 10th. Bayern are 3 points clear at the top, and with the advantage of playing 1st this weekend, can lay down a marker for their pursuers.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bayern

RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWWLW - no draw at home. Defeats have come against 2nd and 4th , both 0-1, and given the propensity for 0-0's historically , a 0-1 will be the likeliest scoreline if Koln somehow engineer a win.Bayern have scored 4,3,4,5,4,7,keeping 5 clean sheets in the other home matches.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDWLWWLLWW - 2 of last 3 losses have come away, shock 3-2 defeat to Mainz the latest .Sole draw this season was a 0-0 so if Bayern score they will more than likely win.Have dropped points away to 8th,9th and 12th and playing 10th today, albeit at home

GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs at home.69% overs home and away.Bayern are averaging 3.37 goals scored at home. All bar 4 matches this season over 2.5 goals. 7 of last 8 over 2.5 goals. Bayern have conceded in their last 5 matches.Bayern have failed to score in their last 3. Bayern have conceded in their last 2 home matches. Bayern have conceded only 3 goals in the first half all season and scored 16 in the first halfhour.
STREAKS - 8 at home without a draw, 8 overall without a draw. Have scored and conceded in the last 3 matches overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Koln

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWLLLD - wins came against 6th and 13th, with 1-4 and 3-4 scorelines. Talk about out of the blue! Have lost 5-1 and 5-0 against 2nd and 3rd away from home, and lost 3-2 v 5th, which ties in with the 1.16 quote perfectly ( usually 3/4 goals minimum)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWLWLLDWD - last 4 wins have all come at home and without conceding but koln have played all of the top 5 home and away with the following scorelines 5-0, 5-1, 3-0 and 3-2 losses.

GOAL TRENDS - 100% overs away from home. Have conceded in all away matches this season. Only 4 matches this season were not overs but all featured 2 goals. Koln concede an average 3.14 away

STREAKS - 4 away without a win, no defeat in 3 overall.Have scored in the last 3 matches overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - if you don't want to side with bayern at the odds, then bump them up with a speculative high goals bet? Over 2.5 goals is the strongest trend but with Koln we could see 6+ goals if they have one of their "Keeganesque" matches.Koln have conceded 5-5-3-3 against top 5 so this is a starting point for Bayern. With Bayern only conceding 3 goals in the first half hour this season, this may take time to warm up if they cannot get an early breakthrough.

815pm - Benfica v Rio Ave - 1.21 home - Betfair has this match on Friday but elsewhere it is on later on in the weekend so check it out yourself.
HEAD TO HEADS
08.05.2011 D1 Rio Ave 1-2 SL Benfica
26.01.2011 Cup Rio Ave 0-2 SL Benfica
18.12.2010 D1 SL Benfica 5-2 Rio Ave
09.05.2010 D1 SL Benfica 2-1 Rio Ave
24.01.2010 LC Rio Ave 1-2 SL Benfica
09.01.2010 D1 Rio Ave 0-1 SL Benfica
Benfica have scored 2 minimum in last 5 matches.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 13th with 2nd place equal on points with Porto.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Benfica

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWW - have scored 4,3,3,2,4 in matches away from top 3 and the odds certainly suggest it.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWWDWWWDWW - draws all away v 1st, 4th and 8th.

GOAL TRENDS - 83% overs at home. Have scored in all matches this season 4 of last 5 matches under 2.5 goals include 3 1-0 wins for Benfica.Benfica have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 matches.

STREAKS - 6 match winning streak.No defeat in 12 overall and have scored in 12 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Rio ave

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLLL - contrasting away form from Rio Ave - have not played any of the top 4 away. 4 defeats have been by a single goal, either a 2-1 or a 1-0

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLLDLWLWLW - sequence of LW at present suggests an L will follow today ( as do the odds). Last 3 wins have all come at home against 8th and lower.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs away from home. 8 of last 9 matches have featured one of the teams scoring 2 goals.Of late, it seems a match will be unders with a 2-0 loss to Rio Ave.

STREAKS - 3 match losing streak away. 6 overall without a draw. Have conceded in the last 3 matches away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - with Rio Ave at 50/50 overs and benfica 83% at home, the suggestion would be for goals today . The scoreline though which pervades historically is 2-1, or at least both sides scoring.And with 8 of Rio's last 9 matches featuring one team scoring 2, overs  could be assured allowing us to bump up to more speculative 3.5?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in last 2, so correct score speculators look to 2-1, 3-0, 4-0  - difficult to shortlist this to "to nil" scorelines because of the head to heads.

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