Tuesday 20 December 2011

20/12

Eindhoven the only team who went with form yesterday. Palace was interesting and I wish I had advised a 1-0 back of palace in the correct scores with a lay of Palace in the Match odds given their poor goalscoring.The idea there was if Palace win, they win scoring only 1, and laying Palace in the Match odds covers all outcomes. The clues are there in the research! But yesterday was teams I don't know much about. Braga won as well but 3-4 was out of the blue!
With the Eindhoven match, Almere scored first so there was an enhanced lay bet there as Endhoven had only lost one all season if I recall.
St Pauli scored first but the lay of them, after scoring first, did not come to fruition.
We have seen with German Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2 that the matches for those, outside the big well known teams, don't really go with form, so remember that.
12pm - Agrotikos v Panathinaikos - 1.16 away - Greece and goals don't normally go together but as you know by now 1.16 is indicative , all things being equal, of a win by 3/4 minimum and potentially to nil.Greek Cup so hope for a full strength Pana. This is early in the week so if Pana field first team they will have plenty of rest for the league match at the weekend.

3pm - Pontion Katerinis v Xanthi - 1.4 away - Greek Cup match. xanthi are from the top flight. Pontion play in the 2nd tier.

545pm - Waalwijk v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.44 home - Dutch Cup match sees Waalwijk in the top flight and Go ahead Eagles are 2nd division. No research necessary for a cup match. You take an opinion.

6pm - Bochum v B Munich - 1.21 away  - German Cup 3 clean sheets and a 1-0 -only 3 defeats since 2004 in this competition makes that 1.21 rather big.  Do remember it is a cup match.

7pm - Real Madrid v Ponferradina - 1.07 home - remember this is 2 legged affair and real have already won away.  - 0-2 win away for Real in the 1st leg. Team news required for real with logically the tie ended. 1 goal in the first half and 1 in the 2nd half.

7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v GVVV - 1.33 home - Division 2 v TKSat in another Dutch Cup match.

745pm - Cagliari v AC Milan - 1.6 away
HEAD TO HEADS
14.05.2011D1AC Milan4-1Cagliari Calcio
06.01.2011D1Cagliari Calcio0-1AC Milan
03.04.2010D1Cagliari Calcio2-3AC Milan
22.11.2009D1AC Milan4-3Cagliari Calcio
22.02.2009D1AC Milan1-0Cagliari Calcio
05.10.2008D1Cagliari Calcio0-0AC Milan

5 wins from last 5 head to heads and no doubt Milan are in good form at present.
LEAGUE POSITION -12th v 2nd - a win takes Milan provisionally top .

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Cagliari

RECENT HOME FORM - WDDDLDD - 4 0-0 draws against 3rd, 6th, 13th and 17th. Now the question is whether Juventus and Milan are a step above 3rd place. of course, you could cover the 0-0. Sole win was a 2-1 v Novara ( 2nd bottom)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWDDDLLLDWDL - last 3 defeats away against 5th, 11th and 14th.Sole home defeat was  a 0-3 v Lazio. 

GOAL TRENDS - 29% overs at home. Score an average 0.42 at home. 5 of the last 6 matches under 2.5 goals. 2 clean sheets in the last 3 matches. Failed to score in last 2 matches. Check out the goalscoring record for Cagliari recently at home. 0,0,0,0,1,0. What a poor goalscoring record at home and something exploitable surely.Cagliari have only scored 2 goals in the first half hour and 4 in the first half. They have scored by far the most goals ( 6 ) in the last 1/4 hour of matches. 

STREAKS - 2 match drawing streak at home. 6 at home without a win. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - AC MILAN

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWWDWD - defeats have come against 1st and 6th, the only matches against top 6. Draws against 15th and 16th. Wins against 7th, 8th, and bottom. Milan have scored in 4 of the last 5.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWWWWDWWDW - great recent form and against a side who cannot buy a goal, surely only a 0-0 will scupper Milan getting another 3 points?
Milan have beaten 9th, 10th, 11th and 13th at home scoring 4-3-4-4. I know, Milan are playing away v 12th today but are these comprehensive defeats against teams near today's opponents enough to gauge a likely scoreline?The only dropped points recently, the 2 draws, came away v 14th and 15th.

GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs away from home.Milan have kept 5 clean sheets in the last 6 matches . Milan have failed to score in only 2 matches this season.  7 of the last 10 matches over 2.5 goals and 2 of the exceptions were 2-0 wins for Milan which were arguably successful over 2.5 goals. Milan have failed to score in only 13% of matches this season. 

STREAKS - 5 away without defeat, 1o overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
5 out of 5 wins for Milan in head to heads. 
CAGLIARI - at home, 4 0-0 draws. Win was against 2nd bottom. At home, loss v Lazio 0-3. 
MILAN - losses away v 1st and 6th. Beat 9 /10/11/13 at home  scoring  4-3-4-4 and playing 12th away today. Strong winning sequence ended with 2 away draws v 14th and 15th
GOALS - 29% overs . 5 of the last 6 matches unders. 2 clean sheets in last 3 matches. Have failed to score in the last 2 matches. At home, scored  0,0,0,0,1,0 in recent matches. 57% overs for Milan 5 clean sheets in last 6.Milan have failed to score in only 2 this season.7 of the last 10 matches over 2.5 goals.
CONCL - 0-0 seems to be the only scoreline to scupper Milan and might be worth a speculative punt at the start of the match given Cagliari have trouble scoring but have kept 2 clean sheets in last 3. Expect an eventual Milan breakthrough. Speculators might take correct score cues from Milan scoring 3/4 against 9/10/11/13 at home ( playing 12 away today)


745pm - Heracles v De Graafschap - 1.33 home - both division 1 teams and Heracles have won 2-0 in last 2 head to heads.1.33 a bit short for 2 teams from the same league in a cup match.

745pm - Linfield v Lisburn Distillery - 1.18 home - 5 wins in last 6 without conceding.Last 8 home matches are wins. Last 5 home wins to nil. Last 4 wins 1-0 for Linfield. Not that convincing.Lisburn must have been drinking some concoctions from their distillery.10 losses and 2 draws away in last 12 matches.

Sat13/08/11PREPortadown5 - 1Lisburn DistilleryView eventsMore info
Sat20/08/11PREColeraine2 - 3Lisburn DistilleryView eventsMore info
Sat03/09/11PRECarrick Rangers0 - 0Lisburn DistilleryMore info
Sat17/09/11PREDonegal Celtic2 - 2Lisburn DistilleryView eventsMore info
Sat24/09/11PREDungannon Swifts0 - 2Lisburn DistilleryView eventsMore info
Sat15/10/11PREGlenavon5 - 2Lisburn DistilleryView eventsMore info
Sat29/10/11PREBallymena United1 - 0Lisburn DistilleryView eventsMore info
Sat19/11/11PRECrusaders1 - 1Lisburn DistilleryView eventsMore info
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Sat10/12/11PRECliftonville3 - 1Lisburn Distillery

2 score draws in last 3 for Lisburn away. Draw seems the best Lisburn can hope for, but are Linfield vulnerable to said draw if they are only scoring 1 goal in recent home matches.

745pm - Wolves v Norwich - 2.2 home - shaky home favourites against a Norwich side who showed the strength of Delia's cooking away at everton , scoring first.
HEAD TO HEADS
03.02.2009LChWolverhampton3-3Norwich City
21.10.2008LChNorwich City5-2Wolverhampton
29.12.2007LChNorwich City1-1Wolverhampton

LEAGUE POSITION - 17th v 9th - psychologically Wolves 4th bottom would like to remain there.Norwich are in the top 10

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - wolves

RECENT HOME FORM - WLLLDWWL - 2 recent wins against Wigan and Sunderland( 16th and 18th . Defeats have come against 3rd, 7th and 8th ( 1-2 losses v 7th and 8th and playing 9th today) - looking like a good run DWW until undone by Stoke despite scoring first latest.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLDLWLLWLL - WLL sequence twice now suggest win today. 7 out of 7 defeats against top 8 home and away and playing 9th today. Wins have come against 11th , 16th, 18th , 19th. 5 of the last 6 defeats have come away from home. Wolves have conceded 2,3,2,2,2,2,3,1,2,3,1,4,2 Only 2 matches where Wolves did not concede 2 minimum. Against QPR lost 0-3 at home and against Swansea drew 2-2 at home. Playing the 3rd promoted side today.

GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs throughout this season so far. Last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. 11 of last 12 matches over 2.5 goals. Wolves have only kept a clean sheet in 2nd and 3rd matches of the season. Wolves have only scored 2 goals in the first half hour of matches this season 

STREAKS - Have scored and conceded in the last 5 at home. have conceded 2+ against promoted sides at home. Have conceded in the last 13 overall. No draw in 7 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Naaarrrrich.

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLWLDLLD - sole win away was v Bolton. All 3 draws have been 1-1's . Defeats away have come against 1st , 2nd , 4th and 10th so arguably a tough away fixture list. Against bottom 7, 2 1-1 draws and a 1-2 win against bottom. 

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWDDLLWLWD - last 2 wins have come at home. Last draw was away v Everton and Norwich scored first.  Against bottom 7 home and away, it's 3 2-1 wins and 2 1-1's and a 3-3 v Blackburn. So Norwich are unbeaten.

GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs away from home. Norwich have conceded in all matches this season. 6 of the last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have only failed to score in 2 matches this season.

STREAKS - Have scored and conceded in the last 4 away. Have scored and conceded in the last 9 overall. No win in 5 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
Wolves have conceded 2+ against promoted sides at home, and concede 2 + generally in recent matches. Norwich have conceded in all matches this season. Chance overs .Norwich have been solid against the bottom 7, 3 2-1 wins, 2 1-1 draws and a 3-3 draw home and away.
Wolves against top 10 ( norwich are 9th) have lost to 3rd, 7th and 8th ( 1-2 losses)
1-2 away win perhaps? Over 2.5 goals hopefully.

8pm - Blackburn v Bolton - 2.18 home
HEAD TO HEADS
30.04.2011PRBlackburn Rovers1-0Bolton Wanderers
12.12.2010PRBolton Wanderers2-1Blackburn Rovers
21.02.2010PRBlackburn Rovers3-0Bolton Wanderers
22.11.2009PRBolton Wanderers0-2Blackburn Rovers
28.01.2009PRBlackburn Rovers2-2Bolton Wanderers

These 2 are pants at the moment and it's also a match, arguably, for the manager's jobs! Head to heads see Blackburn unbeaten at home in last 3.

LEAGUE POSITION 19th v 20th and really not a match I would seek to trade as this is desparation stakes and a case of the best on the day . It is a unique position these 2 find themselves in , in a pressured match.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Blackburn

RECENT HOME FORM - LLWLLLWL - no draw at home and a draw not required today!Defeats have come against 1st, 3rd , 4th ( not wholly unexpected) and against 13th, 14th, and 17th ( bottom 8 sides)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLDLDLWLL - 3 draws have come away against QPR, Norwich and Wigan , win came at home 4-2 v Swansea. Only 2 wins this season and one of those wins was extremely lucky

GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs throughout the season. Have conceded in all home matches. 10 of the last 12 over 2.5 goals. Have only failed to score in 3 matches this season and those were all home matches.

STREAKS - 8 at home without a draw. Have conceded in last 16.Have scored in the last 5 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM - bolton - WLLWLLLL - no draw away and wins away have come against QPR and Wigan, 2 teams blackburn drew with. Wins have come against 15th and 18th away and playing 19th away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWLLWLLLLL - no draw overall this season, and like Blackburn, a draw is not what Bolton are wanting. In all defeats, Bolton have conceded 2+ goals. 2 wins have seen clean sheets and in the other win, they conceded only 1 goal.

GOAL TRENDS - 88% overs away from home  and 81% overs overall. Bolton have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 matches. 

STREAKS - 16 without a draw overall. Have conceded in the last 7 away and last 5 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
congruency with goal trends for these 2 sides. I am retiscent to put anything up because this is a "one off" 2nd bottom v bottom .Also congruency with avoiding the draw and the draw is not what either team wants .

9pm - Sevilla v San Roque - 1.24 home - 0-1 for Sevilla away so still not concluded.0-0 will do Sevilla but they are , on paper, the better side.


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