Friday, 23 December 2011

23/12 and 24/12

Nothing today at all and there are some Scottish matches of interest on Saturday.
1245pm - St Mirren v Rangers - 1.5 away
HEAD TO HEADS
15.10.2011PRGlasgow Rangers1-1St. Mirren
16.04.2011PRGlasgow Rangers2-1St. Mirren
06.03.2011PRSt. Mirren0-1Glasgow Rangers
07.11.2010PRSt. Mirren1-3Glasgow Rangers
21.03.2010LCGlasgow Rangers1-0St. Mirren
06.03.2010PRGlasgow Rangers3-1St. Mirren

LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 1st and a healthy 4 point gap for Rangers at the top.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - St Mirren

RECENT HOME FORM - WLLDWLDWL - inconsistent St Mirren at home. Defeats against 2nd and 3rd, 0-0 draws v 3rd and 4th. Recently lost at home to 10th. 

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLWLDLWDWLLDD - the inconsistencies continue -have played 5 of 6 matches against top 3, 2  1-1 away draws, 2 defeats to nil v celtic, and a 0-1 home loss v Motherwell.  Last 2 draws were away draws.

GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs at home. Have not scored at home against top 5.  

STREAKS - NO WIN IN 4 OVERALL.have scored and conceded in last 2 at home. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Rangers

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWWWWWLW - loss was 1-0 away to Killy. 7 of 8 wins were to nil.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWDWWWDLWWW - draws have come at home. Draws against 4th and 5th came at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home. Concede an average 0.22 away and score an average of 2 goals away.Only failed to score in 2 this season, and they were the recent DL. A superb run of clean sheets ended recently and clean sheets have been more sporadic. There is a chance Rangers could concede.  General trend for aways.

STREAKS - 9 away without a draw. 3 match winning streak overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - last 3 head to heads have been tight without Rangers losing.St Mirren have lost at home to 2nd and 3rd and drawn 0-0 with 4th and 5th. In other words they have failed to score at home against top 5. 
7 of Rangers 8 away wins were to nil. Could be the same again today.
44% and 33%overs %'s signal potential unders match with best case therefore a 0-2 away win? 0-0 cover , 0-1 cover too.
FORM LAB
Match outcome: Rangers have won 11/12 away matches against middle-third teams and they have had W/W double results in 7/10 such matches. St Mirren have lost 8/9 home matches against Big Two teams.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) Home concede first v all
2) Home fail to score v all
3) Home lose to nil v all.

130pm - Celtic v Kilmarnock - 1.27 home
HEAD TO HEADS
15.10.2011PRKilmarnock FC3-3Celtic FC
08.05.2011PRKilmarnock FC0-2Celtic FC
20.04.2011PRKilmarnock FC0-4Celtic FC
21.12.2010PRCeltic FC1-1Kilmarnock FC
19.09.2010PRKilmarnock FC1-2Celtic FC
27.03.2010PRCeltic FC3-1Kilmarnock FC

Celtic have scored 4-2-3 in their last 3 meetings. 
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 6th 

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Celtic

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWWDWWW - sole loss v St Johnstone and you know the back story to that. Draw, 0-0 v 11th placed Hibs. Have not conceded more than 1 goal at home

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLDWDWWWWWWW - 7 match winning streak is excellent. 

GOAL TRENDS - 56% overs at home. 2.33 scored on average. 5 clean sheets in the last 6 matches. Have failed to score in only 3 matches this season. Last 3 matches unders 2 1-0 scorelines and a 2-0.

STREAKS - 4 match winning streak away, 7 overall. No defeat in 10 overall. No draw in 7 overall. Have kept a clean sheet in last 4 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Kilmarnock - 3-0 up last time these 2 met and threw it away.

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDLLDWD - sole win away was a 0-1 v Hearts care of a 55 minute penalty. Against the top 3, 2-0 loss to rangers, 0-0 v Motherwell.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLDDWLDWWD - 4 of the wins have come against 5 and below. 

GOAL TRENDS - 38% over 2.5 goals away from home. 6 of the last 7 matches under 2.5 goals. Kilmarnock kept 2 clean sheets in last 3 including a 1-0 home win v Rangers. 

STREAKS - have scored in the last 6 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Epic recovery from 3-0 down for celtic and they will not want a repeat of that today. Celtic have scored 4-3-2 in the last 3 head to heads. Sole loss at home v St Johnstone. Worse case would be a draw I suspect. 7 match winning streak overall.5 clean sheets in last 6 for Celtic signals a win to nil, but remember the fireworks last match!! I would not be too confident in a win to nil although that is what recent form should signal.
Only win away for Kilmarnock was care of a 2nd half penalty so again best case would suggest a draw. Agains top 3 away 2-0 loss and 0-0 draw , failing to score. ( could this bring back the Celtic win to nil argument?)
56and 38% overs , with Killy very much an unders side recently and Celtic winning 1-0, 1-0, 2-0 recently. Recently Killy have won 1-0 v Rangers, albeit at home.
FORM LAB
Match outcome: Celtic have won 16/18 home matches while Kilmarnock have had L/L double results in 7/9 away matches against Big Two teams. Kilmarnock have lost 11/12 away matches against Big Two teams.
TOP 3 MATCH INDICATORS
1) Home win by 2+ v top half
2)Most match goals 2nd half v Middle 1/3rd
3)Home Win/Win v Top half

130pm - Dunfermline v St Johnstone - 2.28 away
HEAD TO HEADS
13.08.2011PRSt. Johnstone0-1Dunfermline
11.04.2009D1Dunfermline1-3St. Johnstone
07.04.2009D1St. Johnstone0-0Dunfermline
01.11.2008D1Dunfermline1-2St. Johnstone
Close match in Dunfermline's only recent premiership match.
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 4th which would hint at value in St Johnstone's price, but what does the form point to.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Dunfermline

RECENT HOME FORM - DDLDLLLD - no win at home yet. Defeats against 1st, 3rd, 5th and 7th. Draws against 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLDLWLLDLL - all wins have been 0-1 away wins.Actually beat St Johnstone 0-1 so have it in them to do so again. Last 4 defeats have been away from home. 

GOAL TRENDS - 75% over 2.5 goals at home.Average 2.75 conceded at home. Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 13 of the last 14 matches. 

STREAKS - 8 without a win at home. Have conceded in the last 7 at home and last 5 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - St Johnstone

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDWLWDDW - only one defeat away was a 3-2 v Hibs - 0-0's against 1st, 7th, 8th and 9th away .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWDLDWWLLL - 3 match losing streak has come at home against 2nd, 3rd, 9th. 

GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. 

STREAKS - 4 away without defeat. Have conceded in the last 5 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 0-1 to Dunfermline sole Premiership meeting. Will this tightness be replicated today? No wins at home and clear separation of results. defeats to top 7 and draws v the rest at home. This logically points to a defeat v top 4 St Johnstone?
All wins have been 0-1 aways and includes St Johnstone!
Only 1 loss away for St johnstone suggests worse case another 1-0 for Dunfermline. 0-0's for St johnstone v 1st, 7th 8th and 9th
Both sides have conceded in the last 5 overall.
75% overs at home v 44% overs away from home ( down to those 0-0's)
Logic points to St Johnstone not losing this. I cannot see another Dunfermline win.
FORM LAB
1st goal: Dunfermline have conceded first in 6/8 home matches while St Johnstone have won 6/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. St Johnstone have drawn the first half in 10/14 away matches against bottom-six teams.

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