745pm - Chelsea v Liverpool - 1.94 home - League Cup
Last 4 League Cup matches nearly all draws in 90 minutes. 3 of them had plenty of action in the match to help the volatility in a lay the draw ( despite a draw being the most recurring theme recently)
| Wed | 23/09/09 | LEC | Chelsea | 1 - 0 | Queens Park Ra… | View events | More info |
| Wed | 28/10/09 | LEC | Chelsea | 4 - 0 | Bolton Wanderers | View events | More info |
| Wed | 22/09/10 | LEC | Chelsea | 3 - 4 | Newcastle United | View events | More info |
| Wed | 21/09/11 | LEC | Chelsea | P0 - 0 | Fulham |
0-0 v Fulham and Chelsea through on penalties.
Last few Liverpool matches have seen them score and concede. Hint that some of the big guns may play - for instance Suarez scored 2 against Stoke latest.
You can see above the away results for Liverpool are quite good recently.
CONCLUSION - quite simply team news is key as ever.The pressure is on Villa Bow-Arse to start getting Chelsea back on track, even in a competition with little relevance.
Sturridge might get a game tonight and he does tend to score when enabled. In the final analysis, this is the League Cup so is unpredictable.
745pm - Middlesbrough v West Ham - 2.58 home
HEAD TO HEADS - no recent relevant head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 2nd after 18 matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Boro
RECENT HOME FORM - DWDDDDWWD - a case of the Aston Villa's at home for Boro. They have not played any of the top 5 at home, so if are drawing against inferior opponents, this may make them vulnerable against the better teams at the top?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDDDLWLWWDD - 2 losses in recent matches saw Boro away to Southampton and lost 3-0 . Southampton are 1st in the league. Is this a sign that Boro are more vulnerable once they play the top sides?
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs throughout - 2 in 3 matches played are under 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - 9 at home without defeat, 4 overall.Have scored in the last 4 at home, and 4 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - West Ham
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWDDLWWW - like Boro, West Ham have only succumbed to Southampton recently. A 0-1 away loss, and again, like Boro, West Ham have only played Southampton of the top 5 away. So both teams today are meeting top 5 opponents for only the 2nd time.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLDWLWWDWWW - all defeats this season have been 1-0 defeats. This might be factored into your thinking today if you see the Hamsters as vulnerable? 3-0-2-2-3 scored in last 5 matches. Interesting that West Ham have played 1st and 3rd and lost both matches 1-0. Will this continue against 4th?
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. 0.56 conceded on average, but remember this is only the 2nd of the top 5 the Hamsters have met away.
STREAKS - 3 match winning streak overall.No defeat in 6 overall.have scored and conceded in the last 2.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the first thing to note is that at home, and away, Southampton are the only opponents for these respective sides in the top 5. This match is therefore a bigger test than these 2 have encountered recently. It also means that the goal trends are against, generally, other than top 5 sides.West HAm have scored 12 and conceded 2 in the first half in matches, and therein may be the angle in an admittedly difficult to read match. Back West Ham to open the scoring ( with a 0-0 cover perhaps?)
745pm - Napoli v Juventus - 2.58 home - not a match I would normally consider given the odds but as it is a league match in the midst of cup matches domestically, and is on soccerstats, then it is worth checking out.
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sun | 22/05/11 | SEA | Juventus | 2 - 2 | Napoli | View events | More info |
| Sun | 09/01/11 | SEA | Napoli | 3 - 0 | Juventus | View events | More info |
| Thu | 25/03/10 | SEA | Napoli | 3 - 1 | Juventus | View events | More info |
| Wed | 13/01/10 | COI | Juventus | 3 - 0 | Napoli |
Emphatic wins for Napoli at home.But with Juventus wading in with goals at Juve, it might be safer to opt for a neutral goals bet if indeed we were to trade this match.
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v top after 11 matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Napoli
RECENT HOME FORM - WDLWD - Napoli have beaten 2nd and 3rd at home and drawn 0-0 with 4th so the visit of Juventus will hold no fears for them today. Napoli scored 3 and 2 in those victories.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLDWLDWLDD -a sequence of 3 WLD's ended with a draw latest. Very inconsistent. First we see solid wins against 2nd and 3rd, then we see defeats to 7th, 10th , 11th and draws against 13th, 14th and 16th.
GOAL TRENDS -40% overs at home.Only 1 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 1 win in last 6 matches.Napoli have scored 2 in last 3, but 1 was a 90th minute goal. Are they having trouble in front of goal?
STREAKS - 2 at home without defeat.No win in 3 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Juventus
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDWW - beat 4th 0-1 and drew 1-1 with 7th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM- WWDDWDDWWWW - unbeaten this season and could exploit the Champions League distractions of Napoli's . Have beaten 2nd, 4th and 5th, drawn v 7th and 9th .
GOAL TRENDS - 20% overs away from home down to solid defence ( not conceded more than 1) but also lack of firepower ( only scored 2 in one match).
STREAKS - 4 match winning streak, no defeat in 11.Have scored in last 5 and kept a clean sheet in last 2.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - is worse comes to the worst, then overs given head to heads? BUT Napoli have been playing Champions League lately which may impact that.
NAPOLI - beat 2nd and 3rd at home and 0-0 v 4th - play better at home against better teams>
Overall, lost to 7th, 10th, 11th and draws against 13th, 14th, 15th.
JUVENTUS - 0-1 win against 4th and 1-1 v 7th away from home. Beat 2nd /4th/5th overall and draw v 7th and 9th.
GOALS - 40% overs Only 1 in last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 1 win in last 6 down to Champions League distractions? 20% overs away from home down to solid defence and an inability to score 2 in all bar 1 match away. No defeat in 11 and scored in last 5 for Juve. Have kept a clean sheet in last 2
Conclusions - instinct would point me to a possible lay of Napoli. I acknowledge, with Juve, that unbeaten streaks will end eventually. Goal trends points more to unders today despite head to heads being strongly overs.
745pm - Southampton v Hull - 1.66 home
HEAD TO HEADS - no head to heads since 2008
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 7th and West Ham are playing today too ( and could threaten 1st with a win, but they are playing 4th away)
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - SAINTS
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWWWW - have beaten 2nd, 4th, 5th and 8th at home, so 7th will hold no fears.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDLWDWDWWWWL - surprising defeat to 22nd in the league latest.Prior to that Saints scored 3-2-4-3- in 4 victories. Only 3 defeats all season came away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - 78% overs at home. Scored in all matches at home. 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.Only failed to score in that match against City last time out all season.
STREAKS - 9 match winning streak at home - no draw in 5 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - HULL
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWDDDWLW - have only played 1 of the top 10 away a 4-1 loss v 5th placed Leeds United. 3 of the away wins were 0-1's , and all 4 wins without conceding.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDDWDWWLLWL - 3 losses in last 4 may make Hull vulnerable includes a 0-2 home defeat v West Ham, and defeats against 14th and 16th.
GOAL TRENDS - 22% overs away from home, but yet again, as is the theme today, Hull have only played a single away match against top 10, conceding 4 goals. Only 5 matches overs this season and 4 of those in last 8.Hull have conceded 2-2-0-3 in last 4 matches.
STREAKS - no draw in 6 overall.Have scored in last 3 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
No recent head to heads -will this produce a shock?
SOUTHAMPTON - win all at home , and against 2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th . Recent loss against 22nd was the only match Southampton failed to score this season, so those diligent folks against you might want to check for any injuries to key forwards. 3 defeats all season were away.
HULL - have only played 1 of the top 10 away , conceding 4. 3 of the away wins were 0-1 and the other 0-2 so Hull did not concede.Recently Hull have suffered 3 losses in their last 4 matches, including a 0-2 home defeat against 2nd placed West Ham.
GOALS - 78% overs for Saints at home.22% overs away for Hull but I must remind you that they have only played one away v top 10 and that was clearly overs. In fact Hull have had only 5 overs matches this season, and conceded 2-2-0-3- in their last 4 matches.
Conclusion - this looks like another match where the Saints will go unbeaten. I am a little perplexed by a sudden inability to score against Bristol City, that was away. Hull are on a poor run at present and a recent home loss 0-2 v West Ham could signal what Southampton are capable of with home advantage. It would seem the only way Hull can win away is without conceding, and this seems unlikely at St Mary's. Saints wins at home against 2nd, 4th, 5th and 8th surely augurs well against 7th.
8pm - Arsenal v Man City - 2.34 away - League Cup match. Strength in depth for City could see them take the advantage here? Not doing indepth research as so many changes in both sides in League cup matches. Note, only 1 loss at home for Arse since 2004 in this competition but then I doubt they have met a squad as strong as City's/
8pm - Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano - 1.08 home
HEAD TO HEADS - no recent.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 10th after 13 matches and something is wrong with Barcelona this season. 4 draws and a defeat already.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Barcelona
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWDWW - draw 0-0 v 6th but scored 3 minimum without conceding in the other matches.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDWWWDWWDWL - I didn't research the loss v Getafe so could not judge whether it was a surprise. 3 draws have come away, all 2-2
GOAL TRENDS - 86% overs at home.Clean sheet in all matches. 7 clean sheets in last 9 matches. 3 of last 4 matches overs. FAiled to score in 2 this season. Only conceded 3 in first half, and scored 23.
STREAKS - 2 match home winning streak. No defeat in 7. No goal conceded in 7.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Rayo Vallecano.
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWLDWLD - inconsistent. Lost 6-2 to Real Madrid.Draws against 7th, 9th and 20th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLWWLWDL - last 2 wins came at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 14% overs away from home but have only played one of the top 6 away and lost 2-6. Only 4 matches overs this season. Have kept a clean sheet in 4 of the last 6 matches, but conceded against Villareal and Valencia. Have failed to score in 2 of the last 4.
STREAKS - 2 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no recent head to heads might bring up QPR v Chelsea syndrome, but hey, how often do Barcelona lose 2 consecutive matches? An already faltering season sees Real Madrid clear already. Barca have not conceded at home, which makes a win to nil a potential. And speculators might like to start with Real Madrid's 6 goals and work from there? Juicy odds. 6-0, 3-0, 4-0 and just home Rayo do not score. Barca have scored 23 and conceded 3 in the first half. Enhance odds with Halftime/Fulltime bet.
Rayo have only played one of the top 6 away and that was a 2-6 loss to Real Madrid. 14% overs away from home is interesting but I must repeat that they have only played one of top 6 away so this 14% is against weaker sides.
Over 5.5 goals will be at big enough odds to offer value, and the hope is that Barca translate the 1.08 into the equivalent amount of goals. Currently around 5 in an illiquid market on Betfair at time of writing, the market should flesh out before kick off.
The niggle - will be the fact these 2 have not met recently. As a consequence there may be a surprise. THis has happened before and might signal highly speculative types to consider a back of 0-0 and a lay of Barca in stark contrast to what the odds suggest.
So a choice to make, value seekers can go with the contrasting high goals , or 0-0 and lay of Barca.
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