Thursday, 24 November 2011

24/11

Very happy with my Legia Warsaw research yesterday and some CL matches, although they are as tough as ever. Where would the Arse be without Robby Van Parsnips? Celtic won but win to nil scuppered by late Dunfermline goal.


5pm - Fiorentina v Empoli - -1.45 home
HEAD TO HEADS
26.10.2010CupFiorentina1-0 AETEmpoli FC
27.01.2008D1Empoli FC0-2Fiorentina
The Italian Cup so no real research to be done. Head to heads point to a tight cup match about this time last year with 0-0 at full time.
Seria A v Seria B and Empoli have lost 5 of their last 7 away matches in the league
Fiorentina have lost only once in last 12 at home and that was to Roma.
Make of this what you will. Speculators will point to the 0-0 last head to head in the Cup and recount that this is Italian football ( i.e. predominantly defensive - as marked by a 0-0 and 1-0 for Fior in their last 2 matches.
630pm - Netherlands (W) v Croatia (W) - 1.04 home - Denmark were literally unbackable yesterday - 6-0 at halftime and 11-0 fulltime. Expect another convincing win to nil today? 0-3 to Netherlands in away fixture in October this year saw 3 2nd half goals. Croatia have lost 9 and drawn 3 of their last 12 so not as strong as their male counterparts.
Croatia lost 4 of their last 5 away from home , conceding 3 goals minimum. 6-0, 3-0, 0-0, 2-0 for the Dutch and obviously this calls for a potential win to nil, and 3-0 is an obvious starter, although with 1.04 quotes it is tough to read. This should be a rout but teams sometimes take the foot off at 3-0, 4-0. And remember the away fixture was tight early diana dors, so maybe some leeway with a 0-0 - it will be a huge price to trade, so stakes can be reduced. You never know!
7pm - FC Copenhagen v FC Nordsj - 1.56 home
I was ready with my betting research template but this is the Danish Cup.
These are both division 1 sides so it is difficult to weigh up league form for a cup match. And added spice with Nordj winning 1-3 at Copenhagen as recently as 24th October 2011. This brings in the psychological angle - Copenhagen do not want to lost a 2nd match against the same opponents at home 2 matches running. Generally Copenhagen have scored 2 goals minimum against this lot at home.
A couple of recent slip ups but 2011 sees 2 clean sheets and away wins.
Recent home form in this competition is a shock and signals a lack of interest and use of the extended squad?
Wed26/08/09DBPRingsted0 - 9NordsjællandMore info
Wed23/09/09DBPAB1 - 4NordsjællandMore info
Wed21/10/09DBPAIK 651 - 5NordsjællandView eventsMore info
Thu08/04/10DBPSilkeborg1 - 3ENordsjællandView eventsMore info
Thu22/04/10DBPNordsjælland2 - 0VejleView eventsMore info
Wed28/04/10DBPVejle0 - 2NordsjællandView eventsMore info
Thu13/05/10DBPNordsjællandE2 - 0MidtjyllandView eventsMore info
Thu26/08/10DBPVanløse0 - 5NordsjællandMore info
Thu23/09/10DBPHjørring0 - 1NordsjællandMore info
Thu28/10/10DBPOB2 - 3NordsjællandView eventsMore info
Thu11/11/10DBPHorsens0 - 1NordsjællandView eventsMore info
Thu28/04/11DBPNordsjælland1 - 0RandersView eventsMore info
Wed04/05/11DBPRanders0 - 0NordsjællandMore info
Sun22/05/11DBPNordsjælland3 - 2MidtjyllandView eventsMore info
Wed31/08/11DBPHillerød0 - 6NordsjællandMore info
Wed21/09/11DBPHjørring0 - 2NordsjællandMore info
Thu27/10/11DBPNordsjælland1 - 0Midtjylland
Nord like this competition it seems.
No defeat since August 2009. Have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their last 8 in this competition.

I would suggest opposing Copenhagen here as Nord seem to focus on this cup, but we have to factor in the Nord win at Copenhagen in their last head to heads. Will Copenhagen try to avoid a 2nd consecutive loss to the same team at home? Will this ensure they are competitive this evening in a competition they have an acknowledged poor record in.

730pm - Genoa v Bari - 1.59 home
Italian Cup
Very much a mixed bag in head to heads.
Standout stat? - Bari's last 7 Seria B matches ( Genoa are Seria A) have seen all under 2.5 goals. Genoa's last 2 matches were 1-0 win and 1-0 loss. Bari had 4 1-0's and 2 1-1's in those 7 matches.
I know league form and sequences are not immediately transferable into a one off cup match, but might this be an angle in? Under 2.5 goals. A back of 1-1 correct score might have legs as a trade, and a back of 0-0 initially incase adept defensive Bari turn up this evening. Compound this with a 0-0 in February and we have a cogent arguement although of course betting in the Cup brings its own inconsistencies ( team news changes, Cup mentality etc).

730pm - Spain (W) v Germany (W) - 1.29 away - -Germany are clear favourites ( in the football and sideline hairiest armpits competition) - and are, with Brazil, dominant in Women's football. Spanish senorita's are not as dominant as their male compatriots.
11 wins in last 12 for Germany, only a 0-0 in the Women's quarter final v Japan the only blotch.
9 clean sheets in those matches and a tight, erm, 17-0 win over Borat's brigade was very Yek Shamesh. It is a clear sign that Germany are good in defence and attack and opens the doors to a potential win to nil.
8 wins and 4 losses going back to 2008 for German ladies, and I think I would rather take recent overall form .
10 wins, a draw and a loss for Spanish ladies in their last 12, includes a 5 match winning run latest, 4 matches in the Qualifiers.Both sides have beaten the same sides easily enough in recent Euro qualifiers.
Tough to weigh up Spain and the opponents they have beaten. No doubting the German ladies a little short against such a good recent Spanish record, but maybe this is because of their utter dominance ( they only ever lose against USA).


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