Monday, 7 November 2011

7/11

6pm - Bari v Verona - 2.36 home
HEAD TO HEADS
10.06.2007 D2 Hellas Verona 4-2 AS Bari
27.01.2007 D2 AS Bari 0-1 Hellas Verona
no recent head to heads suggest one of these is a newcomer to Seria B and because it is a quiet day and Seria B is on soccerstats, I might as well take a look.
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 10th after 13 matches.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bari

RECENT HOME FORM - DLDWWL - Bari have not been regular scorers at home . They have scored 2 goals in only 1 match at home. The 2 wins were 1-0's Have beaten 9th 1-0, drawn 11th 0-0 and playing 10th today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWLLDWWWLWLLW - no draw in 8.5 out of 6 wins have been 1-0 scorelines.

GOAL TRENDS - 17% over 2.5 goals at home. Have kept a clean sheet in half of the home matches.Have failed to score in 2 of the last 3 matches , both losses. Only 3 of 13 matches this season under 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 8 overall without a draw, 3 at home.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Verona

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWDLW - losses against 7th and 20th.Wins against 12th and 15th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWLDWDDLLDWW - recent wins against 12th and 14th. All draws were score draws.

GOAL TRENDS - have scored in all matches this season. Have scored and conceded in last 6 away matches. Have only kept a clean sheet in 2 matches this season, both were 1-0 wins at home.


STREAKS - have scored in last 13. Have scored and conceded in last 6 aways.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - always a slight concern when teams meet for the first time in a while. 8th v 10th suggests well matched?
BARI - tend to score only 1 at home. 2 wins were both 1-0 at home. 5 out of 6 wins this season were 1-0. No draw in last 8 matches.
VERONA - have scored in all matches this season and scored and conceded in each of last 6.
Goals - only 3 of 13 matches this season for Bari over 2.5 goals. 5 out of 6 scorelines away for Verona were 2-1. Incongruent goals trends.
It's as tough as the odds suggest for me. Perhaps back 1-0 Bari, 2-1 Bari and 2-1 Verona as an ultra speculative correct score trade?

715pm -
Erzgebirge v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.83 away - -bundesliga 2 on soccerstats so , again, a quiet day means I can research these.
HEAD TO HEADS - no head to heads recently.

LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 3rd - after 13 matches.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Erzgebirge

RECENT HOME FORM - WLDLWD - wins, only 1-0, against current 15th and 17th in a league of 18 teams. Losses against 1st and 14th and draws against 7th and 9th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLLDDDLWWLDL - only 3 wins all season suggest, quite obviously, that they are more likely to draw or lose their matches. BUT remember 2 of the 3 wins were at home, albeit 1-0 scrapes against current bottom sides. Recent losses came away to 2nd and 5th.

GOAL TRENDS - 17% over 2.5 goals at home.The only overs match was a 2-4 loss against the top side. Only 3 matches all season over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 2 of last 3 matches.

STREAKS - 2 at home without defeat. Have scored in last 3 at home.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Eintracht Frankfurt

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWDWW - that 1.83 away looks massive with this form, or am I missing something. 3-3-3-4-2-4-1 scored away from home. Have beaten 11th and 13th away from home by 2 and 4 goals without conceding and playing 12th today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWDWDDWWWWWD - superb form this season and again begs the question why Frankfurt are nearly evens away from home? 3 of the 5 draws came at home against top 5 sides.

GOAL TRENDS - 71% overs away from home.Have scored in all away matches. 5 of the last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. 1 of the exceptions was a successful over 2.5 goals trade as both goals came before halftime. Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of the last 3 matches.

STREAKS - 13 without defeat. Have scored in last 7 away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - again no head to heads recently.
ERZGEBIRGE - only wins at home against bottom 4 and both 1-0, highly unconvincing. Only 3 wins all season.
EINTRACHT - 5 wins and a draw at home scoring 3-3-3-4-2-4-1 - have beaten 11th and 13th this season without conceding and playing 12th today. So why 1.83? Seems suspiciously high?
Unbeaten this season - 3 of 5 draws at home suggest more likely to win away?
Goals - only 3 matchs for Erzgebirge over 2.5 goals this season. 71% overs away from home for Frankfurt again produces incongruous goal trends. 5 of last 7 Frankfurt games over 2.5 goals.
I must be missing something and admit I do not follow Bundesliga 2, but Frankfurt look a value price here if we just make oour choice based on form. Perhaps a 1-0 win for Erzgebirge as the saver?

745pm -
St Johnstone v Aberdeen - 2.36 home
HEAD TO HEADS
23.07.2011 PR Aberdeen FC 0-0 St. Johnstone
07.05.2011 PR Aberdeen FC 0-2 St. Johnstone
02.03.2011 PR St. Johnstone 0-0 Aberdeen FC
20.11.2010 PR Aberdeen FC 0-1 St. Johnstone
21.08.2010 PR St. Johnstone 0-1 Aberdeen FC
24.04.2010 PR St. Johnstone 1-1 Aberdeen FC
all under 2.5 goals - 4 of the last 5 matches under 1.5 goals.
LEAGUE POSITION- 4th v 11th- after 13 matches.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - St Johnstone

RECENT HOME FORM - LLDWWL - wins against 5th and bottom, both 2-0 could hint at St JOhnstone finding 2nd bottom within their reach at home?

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLLWDDWWLWWDL - hard to read a side who have beaten 2nd and 3rd away without conceding, then lost to 9th and 10th .

GOAL TRENDS - 17% overs at home.3 2-0 scorelines the cause of this low %.Last 3 matches under 2.5 goals.Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 matches.Have failed to score in last 2.

STREAKS - 3 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Aberdeen

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLDLL - losses v 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th and playing 4th today. 4 of those losses without scoring.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLWLDDLWWLL - only 3 wins this season against 8th, 10th, and 12th ( of 12) at home. Have played 7 matches against top 5 sides have lost 6 and drawn 1 0-0.

GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home.Last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. HAve kept a clean sheet in only 3 matches this season.

STREAKS - 6 away without a win.no draw in 5 overall. Have scored and conceded in last 3 matches overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Aberdeen are dire away from home. St Johnstone have beaten bottom 2-0 and are playing 2nd bottom today. Could be the value price here, although I must say the odds suggest the bookies see this as a tight match. 17% and 33% 2.5 goals percentages suggest a possible tight affair and under 2.5 goals.Aberdeen are playing 4th today. Have lost 6 and drawn 1 0-0 in the 7 matches they have played home and away against top 5 sides.
based on form 2.36 looks value for St Johnstone and a hope they lead at some stage in the match.

8pm -
Brescia v Sampdoria - 2.9 away
HEAD TO HEADS
01.05.2011 D1 Sampdoria Genoa 3-3 Brescia Calcio
12.12.2010 D1 Brescia Calcio 1-0 Sampdoria Genoa
Only 2 recent and relevant head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 6th after 13 matches.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Brescia

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWDLL - sudden loss of form. Losses against 2nd and 5th at home 0-3.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWWDWDDLLLLL - sudden losing run coincides with matches home and away against current top 10 and they are playing 6th placed today.

GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home.Have failed to score in the last 4 matches, again all against top 10 sides. Have conceded in last 7 matches.

STREAKS - 5 match losing streak overall.3 match losing streak at home. Have conceded in last 7 matches and failed to score in last 4.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - sampdoria.

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWWDWL - sole loss away against 19th of 22.In fact, all 3 away wins against bottom 6, and 2 against current bottom 2 sides.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWWDWLDDWDLW - -only 2 losses this season against 1st and , rather randomly, 19th! All bar one of the draws came against current top 10 sides.

GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs away from home but remember a large majority of matches have been played against current bottom 6. Only 2 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - have scored and conceded in the last 5 matches away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
Goals - 67% overs for both sides - 2/3rd of matches will finish overs. Is this an angle in ( it is most un-Italian though!) The shortest price at 2.9 again suggests a tight match. Only losses at home for Brescia against 2nd and 5th and are playing 6th today. Can we read anything into that? 5 match losing run for Brescia coincides with games against top 10 sides, and I repeat, they are playing 6th today. Brescia have conceded in last 7 matches , and Samp have scored and conceded in last 5 away.
For me, SAmp look value here given Brescia's poor losing form against all top 10. You get the feeling both sides are vulnerable to conceding. Over 2.5 goals has a chance based on form.

8pm -
Murcia v Deportivo - 2.72 home - Spanish 2nd tier is on soccerstats.
HEAD TO HEADS
10.11.2009 Cup Deportivo La Coruña 0-0 Real Murcia
28.10.2009 Cup Real Murcia 0-1 Deportivo La Coruña
Last 2 head to heads were cup matches so difficult to weigh up, as the market prices indicate all too readily.
LEAGUE POSITION - 11th v 8th after 11 matches.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Murcia

RECENT HOME FORM - LLWDW - losses at home against current 2nd and 3rd - wins against 13th and 17th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLWWDDDWWW - losses against 2nd , 3rd and 6th all came in first 3 matches of season.

GOAL TRENDS - 60% overs at home. 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals with a 2-0 the exception. HAve only kept a clean sheet in 2 matches this season. Have failed to score in only 1 of the last 8 matches.

STREAKS - 3 at home without defeat, 8 overall without defeat.Have scored 2 or more in the last 4 matches.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Deportivo

RECENT AWAY FORM - -WLLWL - no draw away yet.Losses against 10th, 18th and 20th a bit underwhelming.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWLWLDWLW - inconsistent overall form.4 of the wins came at home and spread around teams throughout the league.There has only been one draw this season and that was at home to 2nd from bottom.

GOAL TRENDS - 60% overs away from home, the exceptions 2 2-0 scorelines. 7 of the last 9 matches over 2.5 goals with 2 2-0 scorelines the exceptions.

STREAKS - -5 away without a draw. Have scored in the last 4.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no recent relevant head to heads. Tight league positions suggest tight match? Shortest price 2.72 suggests bookies, again, haven't got a scooby doo. Murcia have only lost at home against current 2nd and 3rd. All losses against 2nd , 3rd and 6th in first 3 matches of season. Unbeaten ever since. Murcia have scored 2 or more in the last 4 matches. Deportivo -no draw away yet and losses against 10th , 18th and 20th not impressive.
Again, knee jerk and it is advantage Murcia? Perhaps Deportivo layable.



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