Tuesday 1 November 2011

1/11

1130am - -Gombak v Tampines Rovers - -1.41 away
1130am -
Hougang v Home Utd - 1.3 away
445pm -
Flora v Viljandi - 1.09 home - no point researching an illiquid match. Goals a likely outcome?
5pm -
BATE Borisov v AC Milan - 1.62 away
2-0 Milan at home and you just feel that another shut out could be on the cards?
7 wins and a loss recently for Milan see them in superb form overall.3-2-4-4-3 scored in last 5 matches
Tue15/02/11UCLMilan 0 - 1Tottenham Hotspur

Wed09/03/11UCLTottenham Hotspur 0 - 0Milan

Tue13/09/11UCLBarcelona 2 - 2Milan

Wed28/09/11UCLMilan 2 - 0Viktoria Plzeň

Wed19/10/11UCLMilan 2 - 0BATE
Back to winning ways last twice with 2 2-0 home wins against , it must be said, teams they were clearly expected to win.
Wed09/03/11UCLTottenham Hotspur 0 - 0Milan

Tue13/09/11UCLBarcelona 2 - 2Milan

I would have liked to see how Milan performed away against underdogs such as Plzen.
Wed13/07/11UCLLinfield 1 - 1BATE

Tue19/07/11UCLBATE 2 - 0Linfield

Tue26/07/11UCLEkranas 0 - 0BATE

Tue02/08/11UCLBATE 3 - 1Ekranas

Tue16/08/11UCLBATE 1 - 1Sturm Graz

Wed24/08/11UCLSturm Graz 0 - 2BATE

Tue13/09/11UCLViktoria Plzeň 1 - 1BATE

Wed28/09/11UCLBATE 0 - 5Barcelona

Wed19/10/11UCLMilan 2 - 0BATE

Hmm, from Linfield, Ekranas and Sturm Graz to AC Milan.
Tue19/07/11UCLBATE 2 - 0Linfield

Tue02/08/11UCLBATE 3 - 1Ekranas

Tue16/08/11UCLBATE 1 - 1Sturm Graz

Wed28/09/11UCLBATE 0 - 5Barcelona

Win to nil by Barca could be replicated by AC Milan this evening.
5pm -
Zenit St Petersburg v Shakhtar - 1.88 home
Tue13/09/11UCLAPOEL 2 - 1Zenit

Wed28/09/11UCLZenit 3 - 1Porto

Wed19/10/11UCLShakhtar Donetsk 2 - 2Zenit
2011 in the CL sees an ability to score and concede and over 2.5 goals as a consequence.
Wed04/08/10UCLZenit 1 - 0Unirea Urziceni

Tue17/08/10UCLZenit 1 - 0Auxerre

Wed28/09/11UCLZenit 3 - 1Porto
Only one match at home was a very impressive 3-1 defeat against Porto.
Wed16/02/11UCLRoma 2 - 3Shakhtar Donetsk

Tue08/03/11UCLShakhtar Donetsk 3 - 0Roma

Wed06/04/11UCLBarcelona 5 - 1Shakhtar Donetsk

Tue12/04/11UCLShakhtar Donetsk 0 - 1Barcelona

Tue13/09/11UCLPorto 2 - 1Shakhtar Donetsk

Wed28/09/11UCLShakhtar Donetsk 1 - 1APOEL

Wed19/10/11UCLShakhtar Donetsk 2 - 2Zenit
The recent 1-1 would have been a successful over 2.5 goals bet.
Tue09/12/08UCLBarcelona 2 - 3Shakhtar Donetsk

Wed05/08/09UCLPolitehnica Ti… 0 - 0Shakhtar Donetsk

Tue28/09/10UCLSporting Braga 0 - 3Shakhtar Donetsk

Tue19/10/10UCLArsenal 5 - 1Shakhtar Donetsk

Tue23/11/10UCLPartizan 0 - 3Shakhtar Donetsk

Wed16/02/11UCLRoma 2 - 3Shakhtar Donetsk

Wed06/04/11UCLBarcelona 5 - 1Shakhtar Donetsk

Tue13/09/11UCLPorto 2 - 1Shakhtar Donetsk
All bar one match away in this competition have Shakhtar scored and have all matches been over 2.5 goals.
RacingPost recounts a weakened Shakhtar side?

745pm -
APOEL v Porto - 1.87 away
Wed13/07/11UCLSkënderbeu Korçë 0 - 2APOEL

Wed20/07/11UCLAPOEL 4 - 0Skënderbeu Korçë

Tue26/07/11UCLAPOEL 0 - 0Slovan Bratislava

Wed03/08/11UCLSlovan Bratislava 0 - 2APOEL

Wed17/08/11UCLWisła Kraków 1 - 0APOEL

Tue23/08/11UCLAPOEL 3 - 1Wisła Kraków

Tue13/09/11UCLAPOEL 2 - 1Zenit

Wed28/09/11UCLShakhtar Donetsk 1 - 1APOEL

Wed19/10/11UCLPorto 1 - 1APOEL
It seems APOEL are no push overs and are unbeaten in their last 4 matches.
Wed20/07/11UCLAPOEL 4 - 0Skënderbeu Korçë

Tue26/07/11UCLAPOEL 0 - 0Slovan Bratislava

Tue23/08/11UCLAPOEL 3 - 1Wisła Kraków

Tue13/09/11UCLAPOEL 2 - 1Zenit
The scalp of Zenit last time out. 2 70+ minute goals for APOEL when they were behind.
Tue13/09/11UCLPorto 2 - 1Shakhtar Donetsk

Wed28/09/11UCLZenit 3 - 1Porto

Wed19/10/11UCLPorto 1 - 1APOEL
Not a strong 2011 in the CL for Porto.Scored first against Porto.
Tue08/12/09UCLAtlético Madrid 0 - 3Porto

Tue09/03/10UCLArsenal 5 - 0Porto

Wed28/09/11UCLZenit 3 - 1Porto
Only 1 2011 away CL match saw Porto lose 3-1 after opening the scoring.
I am loathe to ever oppose Porto, but then again the form points to APOEL at least not losing at home.

745pm - Arsenal v Marseille - 1.65 home
745pm -
Dortmund v Olympiakos - 1.46 home
745pm -
Genk v Chelsea - 1.28 away
A psychologically important match for Chelsea with their defeat at home to Arse at the weekend, and playing a team they have already tonked 5-0?
Tue26/07/11UCLGenk 2 - 1Partizan

Wed03/08/11UCLPartizan 1 - 1Genk

Wed17/08/11UCLMaccabi Haifa 2 - 1Genk

Tue23/08/11UCLGenk P2 - 1Maccabi Haifa

Tue13/09/11UCLGenk 0 - 0Valencia

Wed28/09/11UCLBayer Leverkusen 2 - 0Genk

Wed19/10/11UCLChelsea 5 - 0Genk
An inability to score once meeting the really big guns?
Tue26/07/11UCLGenk 2 - 1Partizan

Tue23/08/11UCLGenk P2 - 1Maccabi Haifa

Tue13/09/11UCLGenk 0 - 0Valencia
Shut out of Valencia indicative of tactics against big boys at home?
Tue22/02/11UCLKøbenhavn 0 - 2Chelsea

Wed16/03/11UCLChelsea 0 - 0København

Wed06/04/11UCLChelsea 0 - 1Manchester United

Tue12/04/11UCLManchester United 2 - 1Chelsea

Tue13/09/11UCLChelsea 2 - 0Bayer Leverkusen

Wed28/09/11UCLValencia 1 - 1Chelsea

Wed19/10/11UCLChelsea 5 - 0Genk

Only losses both against Man Utd.
Tue22/02/11UCLKøbenhavn 0 - 2Chelsea

Tue12/04/11UCLManchester United 2 - 1Chelsea

Wed28/09/11UCLValencia 1 - 1Chelsea

Cannot really weigh up away to United and Valencia , and then Genk!
A likely win to nil for Chelsea if they can replicate home shut out and Genk continue to fail to score when they meet the really big boys.
745pm -
Plzen v Barcelona - 1.14 away
745pm -
Southampton v Peterborough - 1.53 home
HEAD TO HEADS
05.02.2011 L1 Peterborough 4-4 Southampton
20.11.2010 L1 Southampton 4-1 Peterborough
Have scored 4 in 2 head to heads. This is not reflected in today's odds.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 12th after 14 matches.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Saints

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWW - against 2nd, 4th, 7th, 8th, 17th, 20th 21st.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWLWWDLWDWDW - -2 losses away against 9th and 14th both over 2.5 goals matches. Have not yet played 9th -16th at home so hard to weigh up how Saints get on against teams near Boro's in the league. 3 draws away all 1-1.

GOAL TRENDS - 71% overs at home. Have scored ( naturally) in all home matches. Last 3 wins to nil.

STREAKS - 7 match home winning streak. Have scored in the last 14. Clean sheets in last 3 home matches.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Peterborough

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLWWL - recent wins against 18th and 24th ( bottom). Losses away against 2nd, 10th , 13th, and 21st. Only 1-0 against Hammers .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLWLWLWWLL - no draw in 11.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 away against bottom 12 all over 2.5 goals. Matches away v 2nd and 10th were 1-0 and 2-0. 71% overs away and 78% overs overall hint at a Boro side who can score, and score consistently. Last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. 7 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all matches this season and only failed to score in 3.

STREAKS - no draw in 5 away and 11 overall. Have conceded in last 14 and scored in last 6.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
Southampton - winning all at home.2 losses all season suggest worse case draw this evening, and all draws have been 1-1.
Peterborough - recent wins away against 18th and bottom side.No draw in 11 overall ties in with Saints home form ( naturally no draws at home as they won the lot)
Goals - 71% overs at home for Saints. Saints have scored in last 14. 71% overs away for Boro and 78% overall suggests they are reliable overs candidates? Last 6 Boro matches over 2.5 goals. Boro have conceded in all matches this season.
Conclusion - lack of a draw with Saints winning all at home and no draw in 15 for peterborough.
Over 2.5 goals is congruent, but note Peterborough failed to score against West Ham and 10th placed Brighton away when they lost.
Possibility of a Saints win to nil? Look to 1-0, 2-0 if the above is sufficient evidence of Boro struggling away to better sides.

745pm -
Valencia v Leverkusen - 1.67 home
745pm -
West Ham v Bristol City - 1.41 home
HEAD TO HEADS - n0 recent head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 24th (bottom) - a win could take West Ham top provisionally.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - West Ham

RECENT HOME FORM - LDWWLWW - 90th min, 90th min, 89th min all did for the LDL at home. This vulnerability also showed with a Pompey 90th min penalty, but West Ham were already 4-2 up. Last 2 matches saw a clean sheet and a 74th minute late consolation so some improvement.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWDWWDWLDWLWW - all wins against bottom 15 sides. Also won 3 away against bottom5 sides keeping a clean sheet in 2 matches. 3 losses , all 1-0, and 2 at home ( see above re late goals )

GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs at home. And what a different complexion on the table if matches only lasted 88 minutes. Have scored 4-3-4 at home against current 13th, 14th and 18th.
Also scored 4 away against 20th and 21st so there is potential here for a 3/4 goal Hammers match again? Have scored 4 and 3 in the last 2 home matches. Have scored 12 in the opening 1/2 hour so get off to a flyer generally.

STREAKS - 2 match home winning streak. 5 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - - Bristol City.

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLLLW - -2 wins away have come against 14th and 19th. Noticeably, 3 losses have come against top 10 sides, with another v 13th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWDDLLDLLLLLW - recent win, 1-2 came c/o a 9oth minute City winner. Late goals again! 8 losses and a 1-1 draw home and away against top 13 sides.

GOAL TRENDS - 19 goals have been conceded in the 2nd half by Bristol City. Quite a stat and hints that the first half could be a tight affair ( but remember Hammers start quickly though). In the last 6 away matches, goal concession times have been 56th min, 68th min,3rd and 86th min, 3 of Blackpool's 5 goals scored in 83rd and 90th mins( twice), 81st minute pen for Palace, 74th min.
HAve only kept one clean sheet this season.Have failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches.

STREAKS - have conceded in last 7 aways and 10 overall., no draw in last 4 aways,

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
West Ham - no head to heads always sounds a note of caution. 4 goals conceded at home in 89th/90th minute has not occured in last 2 home matches. 5 wins at home in last 6, sole loss to one of those late goals. All wins against bottom 15 sides and have beaten bottom 6 sides away ( 3 matches, conceding in only 1). Have scored 12 in opening half hour this season.
Bristol - 3 away losses against top 10 . 8 losses and 1-1 draw home and away against top 13 sides is quite damning. Have failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches.
Goals - 57% overs at home and 71% for City away. Conceded in all away matches. 19 goals conceded in 2nd half suggest Hammers could fill boots in 2nd 45?
West Ham have been good at home for scoring first. They seem to have avoided late late hiccups recently.Convincingly superior against current bottom 15 sides, and you can't get worse than bottom City. City struggle against top 13.
Over 2.5 goals congruent. Note City not scored in 3 of last 5 matches.
Possible stumbling blocks - late goal Hammers concession means trade out before 85th minute.

No comments: