Thursday, 3 November 2011

3/11

If you thought the Champions League was a tough puzzle, well Europa League is even harder! I think I will pick and choose from those matches below.
5pm - Rubin Kazan v Tottenham - 1.86 home
"Victory at FC Rubin Kazan will guarantee Tottenham Hotspur FC a place in the UEFA Europa League round of 32 with the home side eager to regain the Group A initiative. "
A must win for Spurs but certainly not favourites in this match.
Thu15/09/11UELShamrock Rovers 0 - 3Rubin Kazan'

Thu29/09/11UELRubin Kazan' 2 - 2PAOK

Thu20/10/11UELTottenham Hotspur 1 - 0Rubin Kazan'
Thu18/02/10UELRubin Kazan' 3 - 0Hapoel Tel Aviv

Thu11/03/10UELRubin Kazan' 1 - 1Wolfsburg

Thu17/02/11UELRubin Kazan' 0 - 2Twente

Thu29/09/11UELRubin Kazan' 2 - 2PAOK
Interestingly beaten by Twente at home, and Spurs are far superior to Twente ( well a first team for Spurs!)
Thu18/08/11UELHeart of Midlo… 0 - 5Tottenham Hotspur

Thu25/08/11UELTottenham Hotspur 0 - 0Heart of Midlo…

Thu15/09/11UELPAOK 0 - 0Tottenham Hotspur

Thu29/09/11UELTottenham Hotspur 3 - 1Shamrock Rovers

Thu20/10/11UELTottenham Hotspur 1 - 0Rubin Kazan'

Spurs are unbeaten so far this EL campaign. 0-0 v Hearts saw a Spurs side who already did the job away. 0-0 v Greek opponents - what's new!
Thu18/08/11UELHeart of Midlo… 0 - 5Tottenham Hotspur

Thu15/09/11UELPAOK 0 - 0Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs are in fine nick at the moment domestically and there is a feeling 'Arry is prioritising the Premiership above the EL.
Therein lies our problem, and therein lies the explanation that puts Spurs as outsiders tonight. What team will 'Arry put out?
I would still be opposing Rubin at odds on though, unless the market makers know something I don't.

6pm - Besiktas v Dinamo Kiev - 2.72 home
6pm - FC Copenhagen v Hannover - 2.66 home
6pm - FC Vaslui v Sp Lisbon - 1.96 away
teams that don't need to win rarely do, but Sporting are clearly dominant in group D on 9 points. Vaslui are joint 2nd so have it all to play for. Will Sporting ring the changes, now qualified? We have seen , certainly, in international football that clearly better sides have gone on to win matches they don't need to win.
Thu15/09/11UELLazio 2 - 2Vaslui

Thu29/09/11UELVaslui 2 - 2Zürich

Thu20/10/11UELSporting CP 2 - 0Vaslui
Sporting won 2-0 when Vaslui were down to 10 men and it took 43rd and 70th minute goals.
A sign perhaps that a full strength home side could be competitive. But then we see Zurich scoring 2 against them at home!
Sporting have won their last 10 matches in all competitions and psychologically, keeping a winning run continuing can make a world of difference . So although they do not need to win in the context of the competition, losing the winning thread might impact the side.
Thu25/08/11UELSporting CP 2 - 1Nordsjælland

Thu15/09/11UELZürich 0 - 2Sporting CP

Thu29/09/11UELSporting CP 2 - 1Lazio

Thu20/10/11UELSporting CP 2 - 0Vaslui
Sole away win v Zurich was routine and over in 21 minutes.
So, take a stance. Go with the obvious form side who want to keep a 10 match winning sequence going, or side with the team needing the win ( home side). Team news key I would say regarding Sporting Lisbon.

6pm - Lazio v FC Zurich - 1.48 home
2 draws and a win each for these sides in Group D. 3 sides on 2 points makes 2nd place clearly up for grabs. Thus this is a must win for both sides today ( and Vaslui v runaway leaders Sporting Lisbon).
Thu18/08/11UELLazio 6 - 0Rabotnički

Thu25/08/11UELRabotnički 1 - 3Lazio

Thu15/09/11UELLazio 2 - 2Vaslui

Thu29/09/11UELSporting CP 2 - 1Lazio

Thu20/10/11UELZürich 1 - 1Lazio
Wholly unimpressive El campaign so far sees Lazio without a win, and now suddenly becoming 1.48 favourites?
Thu18/08/11UELLazio 6 - 0Rabotnički

Thu15/09/11UELLazio 2 - 2Vaslui
Very limited matches at home to go on. 2-2 draw saw Lazion 1-2 down against, erm, who?
Wed27/07/11UCLStandard Liège 1 - 1Zürich

Wed03/08/11UCLZürich 1 - 0Standard Liège

Wed17/08/11UCLBayern München 2 - 0Zürich

Tue23/08/11UCLZürich 0 - 1Bayern München

Sole win for Zurich was at home and a 1-0 win over Belgian opponents.Keeping Bayern to 2 goals at Bayern actually hints at a strong defence?
Wed27/07/11UCLStandard Liège 1 - 1Zürich

Wed17/08/11UCLBayern München 2 - 0Zürich
We cannot really garner anything from away matches as far as comparing with Lazio. Zurich were always expected to lose against Bayern, and I suppose the Belgian league is comparible with Switzerland.
not much to go on form wise. The market has Lazio as clear favourites at heavy odds on, but their EL campaign does not justify the odds.Good news for Lazio backers , the manager "has no option but to play his strongest XI on matchday four". Must wins for both sides here as they are fighting for a solitary 2nd place in the Group.The logician would tell you Seria A is a better league than the Swiss, and a team 3rd in Seria A, at home, should be capable of something.

6pm - Legia Warsaw v Rapid Bucharest - 2.14 home
6pm - Maccabi Tel Aviv v Stoke - 2.56 away
6pm - PSV v Hapoel Tel Aviv - 1.28 home
6 points from 2 games v 0 points in group c. PSV win and they are through. Hapoel win, and they have a distant chance of qualification.
Only 1 loss in the last 18 Europa League matches was 4-1 to benfica for PSV
Thu07/04/11UELBenfica 4 - 1PSV

Thu14/04/11UELPSV 2 - 2Benfica

Thu18/08/11UELRied 0 - 0PSV

Thu25/08/11UELPSV 5 - 0Ried

Thu15/09/11UELPSV 1 - 0Legia Warszawa

Thu29/09/11UELRapid Bucureşti 1 - 3PSV

Thu20/10/11UELHapoel Tel Aviv 0 - 1PSV
PSV have won their last 4 matches, albeit against football's lesser lights. A 0-1 win over Hapoel was c/o a penalty in the 70th minute. Was that just reflective of Hapoel's home defensive set up?
Thu24/02/11UELPSV 3 - 1Lille

Thu10/03/11UELPSV 0 - 0Rangers

Thu14/04/11UELPSV 2 - 2Benfica

Thu25/08/11UELPSV 5 - 0Ried

Thu15/09/11UELPSV 1 - 0Legia Warszawa
PSV have only lost 2 matches at home in this competition since the year 2000. Quite clearly they have it right at home.
Thu28/07/11UELHapoel Tel Aviv 4 - 0Vaduz

Thu04/08/11UELVaduz 2 - 1Hapoel Tel Aviv

Thu18/08/11UELEkranas 1 - 0Hapoel Tel Aviv

Thu25/08/11UELHapoel Tel Aviv 4 - 0Ekranas

Thu15/09/11UELHapoel Tel Aviv 0 - 1Rapid Bucureşti

Thu29/09/11UELLegia Warszawa 3 - 2Hapoel Tel Aviv

Thu20/10/11UELHapoel Tel Aviv 0 - 1PSV
Vaduz and Ekranas ( who?) the only wins for Hapoel and they occured at home.
They have lost their last 3, albeit 2 1-0 home defeats.
Thu01/10/09UELHamburger SV 4 - 2Hapoel Tel Aviv

Thu05/11/09UELRapid Wien 0 - 3Hapoel Tel Aviv

Wed02/12/09UELCeltic 2 - 0Hapoel Tel Aviv

Thu18/02/10UELRubin Kazan' 3 - 0Hapoel Tel Aviv

Thu04/08/11UELVaduz 2 - 1Hapoel Tel Aviv

Thu18/08/11UELEkranas 1 - 0Hapoel Tel Aviv

Thu29/09/11UELLegia Warszawa 3 - 2Hapoel Tel Aviv
Only a single draw away since 2002 in the EL, and 6 losses in last 7 away matches. Contrasts markedly with PSV's home form. Hint that hapeol could concede 2/3 today?


6pm - Paris St-G v Slovan Bratislava - 1.2 home
PSG are equal with Salzburg in 2nd place on 4 points . 2nd place seems to concern these 2, in what now becomes must wins for both sides. Ath Bilbao seem to be safe enough on 7 points .
Slovan Bratislava have 1 point and seem out of it, although stranger things have happened I suppose?
Thu18/08/11UELDifferdange 03 0 - 4PSG

Thu25/08/11UELPSG 2 - 0Differdange 03

Thu15/09/11UELPSG 3 - 1Salzburg

Thu29/09/11UELAthletic Club 2 - 0PSG

Thu20/10/11UELSlovan Bratislava 0 - 0PSG

Bilbao dominates this group and showed that dominance at home to PSG. PSG's win 3-1 against Salzburg perhaps lays down a marker as regards what can be expected against weaker opponents today?
Thu19/08/10UELPSG 2 - 0Maccabi Tel Aviv

Thu30/09/10UELPSG 2 - 0Karpaty

Thu04/11/10UELPSG 0 - 0Borussia Dortmund

Thu02/12/10UELPSG 4 - 2Sevilla

Thu24/02/11UELPSG 0 - 0BATE

Thu17/03/11UELPSG 1 - 1Benfica

Thu25/08/11UELPSG 2 - 0Differdange 03

Thu15/09/11UELPSG 3 - 1Salzburg
No defeat in 17 EL home matches and only 1 defeat since 2001 and we begin to see what PSG are 1.2 to win a must win at home.
5 of last 8 saw wins with clean sheets.
That 0-0 draw in head to heads saw PSG down to 9 men!
Tue12/07/11UCLSlovan Bratislava 2 - 0Tobol

Tue19/07/11UCLTobol 1 - 1Slovan Bratislava

Tue26/07/11UCLAPOEL 0 - 0Slovan Bratislava

Wed03/08/11UCLSlovan Bratislava 0 - 2APOEL
Draw with Tobol ( sounds like a toothpaste!) and APOEL away tells us the best Slovan can expect, against, erm, 11 men this time, is another draw.
One of the most straightforward matches today I would argue. Enhance bets with an overs trade? But we may have to rely on PSG, and therein lies the problem. 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 possibles?

6pm - Red Bull Salzburg v Ath Bilbao - 2.44 away

6pm - Shamrock Rovers v PAOK - 1.92 away
3 defeats in 3 for Shamrock Rovers see them out of the contest with only pride to play for. PAOK are very much alive however , only 2 points behind Spuds and one point ahead of Rubin Kazan who might face a weakened Spurs outfit at home today.
Thu18/08/11UELShamrock Rovers 1 - 1Partizan

Thu25/08/11UELPartizan 1 - 2EShamrock Rovers

Thu15/09/11UELShamrock Rovers 0 - 3Rubin Kazan'

Thu29/09/11UELTottenham Hotspur 3 - 1Shamrock Rovers

Thu20/10/11UELPAOK 2 - 1Shamrock Rovers
Heroics v Partizan after extra time are what got Shamrock where they are. They are currently top of the Irish league and I guess should prioritise something they can win instead of something they have no hope of winning or progressing further.
Thu15/07/10UELShamrock Rovers 1 - 1Bnei Yehuda

Thu29/07/10UELShamrock Rovers 0 - 2Juventus

Thu18/08/11UELShamrock Rovers 1 - 1Partizan

Thu15/09/11UELShamrock Rovers 0 - 3Rubin Kazan'
Yet to win at home, and when meeting strong European sides, have failed to score .
The trouble we have with this competition is weighing up the relative merits of obscure European teams. How does PAOK compare with Partizan or Rubin Kazan for instance?
Thu17/02/11UELPAOK 0 - 1CSKA Moskva

Tue22/02/11UELCSKA Moskva 1 - 1PAOK

Thu28/07/11UELVålerenga 0 - 2PAOK

Thu04/08/11UELPAOK 3 - 0Vålerenga

Thu18/08/11UELPAOK 2 - 0Karpaty

Thu25/08/11UELKarpaty 1 - 1PAOK

Thu15/09/11UELPAOK 0 - 0Tottenham Hotspur

Thu29/09/11UELRubin Kazan' 2 - 2PAOK

Thu20/10/11UELPAOK 2 - 1Shamrock Rovers

Only 1 loss in the 2011 campaign was against CSKA Moscow. hard fought 2-1 home win against Shamrock latest.
Tue22/02/11UELCSKA Moskva 1 - 1PAOK

Thu28/07/11UELVålerenga 0 - 2PAOK

Thu25/08/11UELKarpaty 1 - 1PAOK

Thu29/09/11UELRubin Kazan' 2 - 2PAOK
3 draws in last 4. PAOK would prefer a win tonight, and may lead at some stage. This makes the 1.92 tradable if we expect this lead at some point in the 90 minutes. A score draw suggests they could expect to concede, and if conceding first, enhanced bettors and reactive traders take note. All bar one goal in the above matches was scored after the 55th minute. So take note.
It may sound obvious but this looks like a team with nothing to play for v a team who must win.
The odds do not reflect the PAOK urgency though.
6pm - Vorskla v Standard - 2.72 away
805pm - AEK v Lokomotiv - 1.9 away
805pm - Anderlecht v Sturm Graz - 1.28 home
1st on 9 points v 3rd on 3 points. A win and Anderlecht are definitely through.
Not a must win but a " nice if we do" win in order that Anderlecht can relax in future fixtures.
Thu17/02/11UELAnderlecht 0 - 3Ajax

Thu24/02/11UELAjax 2 - 0Anderlecht

Thu18/08/11UELBursaspor 1 - 2Anderlecht

Thu25/08/11UELAnderlecht 2 - 2Bursaspor

Thu15/09/11UELAnderlecht 4 - 1AEK Athens

Thu29/09/11UELLokomotiv Moskva 0 - 2Anderlecht

Thu20/10/11UELSturm Graz 0 - 2Anderlecht
4 wins and a draw in last 6 see 2 consecitve away clean sheets. Most recent meeting against today's opponents.A laboured 0-2 win saw 66th and 75th minute goals for Anderlecht. Hint potentially that Sturm set themselves up defensively?
Thu17/02/11UELAnderlecht 0 - 3Ajax

Thu25/08/11UELAnderlecht 2 - 2Bursaspor

Thu15/09/11UELAnderlecht 4 - 1AEK Athens
Anderlecht have an ability to score goals.2 and 4 in their last 2 home matches in this current EL campaign. But again we may face the threat of a "functional" win against a team it took a while to score against , tonight.
Thu19/08/10UELSturm Graz 1 - 2Juventus

Thu26/08/10UELJuventus 1 - 0Sturm Graz

Thu15/09/11UELSturm Graz 1 - 2Lokomotiv Moskva

Thu29/09/11UELAEK Athens 1 - 2Sturm Graz

Thu20/10/11UELSturm Graz 0 - 2Anderlecht
Last win was care of 87th and 90th minute goals against AEK , a hint that the home team simply lost focus in the last few minutes of that game .And a hint this was an undeserving win. Selsewhere Sturm seem to concede 2 goals regularly.
Thu05/08/10UELDinamo Tbilisi 1 - 1Sturm Graz

Thu26/08/10UELJuventus 1 - 0Sturm Graz

Thu29/09/11UELAEK Athens 1 - 2Sturm Graz
Sturm seem to be tight away from home -could this play out this evening? Sturm still have something to play for today, equal 2nd on 3 points, so expect another defensive display from them before an inevitable goal or 2 from Anderlecht? The 0-0 back to lay may have legs?
805pm - Atl Madrid v Udinese - 1.62 home
805pm - Austria Vienna v AZ Alkmaar - 2.16 away
805pm - Birmingham v Club Brugge - 2.32 home
805pm - Braga v NK Maribor - 1.27 home
I bet Birmingham did not expect to be leading group H, but yet there they are after 3 matches on 6 points. They lead with Club Brugge on 6 points, and Braga nestled in 3rd on 4 points,Now, bear this in mind. Birmingham are playing Club Brugge today. Something has to give. They both cannot win. This conceivably opens the door up to Braga to clinch 2nd provisionally with a home win ( and the market expects this to be a home win). This becomes a must win therefore.
Thu15/09/11UELBirmingham City 1 - 3Sporting Braga

Thu29/09/11UELSporting Braga 1 - 2Club Brugge

Thu20/10/11UELMaribor 1 - 1Sporting Braga
Sole win against Brum. Sole home match a loss v Brugge. Difficult really what to make of this form. A 1-1 away at Maribor and meeting them tonight as strong home favourites.Maribor actually scored first.
Thu15/09/11UELClub Brugge 2 - 0Maribor

Thu29/09/11UELMaribor 1 - 2Birmingham City

Thu20/10/11UELMaribor 1 - 1Sporting Braga
Maribor knocked Rangers out of this competition. In this group now, they have only salvaged the one point against Braga.
Away from home, Maribor lost 2-0 to Club Brugge.
Last season's EL runners up should surely be motivated to give themselves a chance of staying in this competition with a win? Hard fought I expect ( although Brugge scored 2 within 24 minutes at home to Maribor)
805pm - Celtic v Rennes - 2.5 home
805pm - Fulham v Wisla Krakow - 1.36 home - must win for Fulham, currently 2nd to Twente in group K. This could seal Fulham's qualification
Thu30/06/11UELFulham 3 - 0NSÍ

Thu07/07/11UELNSÍ 0 - 0Fulham

Thu14/07/11UELCrusaders 1 - 3Fulham

Thu21/07/11UELFulham 4 - 0Crusaders

Thu28/07/11UELSplit 0 - 0Fulham

Thu04/08/11UELFulham 2 - 0Split

Thu18/08/11UELFulham 3 - 0Dnipro Dniprop…

Thu25/08/11UELDnipro Dniprop… 1 - 0Fulham

Thu15/09/11UELFulham 1 - 1Twente

Thu29/09/11UELOB 0 - 2Fulham

Thu20/10/11UELWisła Kraków 1 - 0Fulham
1-0 defeat by all accounts unlucky on Fulham, but it must be noted they did not score against the worse team in the group.
Fulham are unbeaten at home in the EL, and prior to the last draw against Twente, won their 9 previous home matches.
Thu30/06/11UELFulham 3 - 0NSÍ

Thu21/07/11UELFulham 4 - 0Crusaders

Thu04/08/11UELFulham 2 - 0Split

Thu18/08/11UELFulham 3 - 0Dnipro Dniprop…

Thu15/09/11UELFulham 1 - 1Twente
Clean sheet a distinct possibility.The Twente goal was an own goal.
Thu29/07/10UELWisła Kraków 0 - 1Qarabağ

Thu05/08/10UELQarabağ 3 - 2Wisła Kraków

Thu15/09/11UELWisła Kraków 1 - 3OB

Thu29/09/11UELTwente 4 - 1Wisła Kraków

Thu20/10/11UELWisła Kraków 1 - 0Fulham
Wisla have had a poor time of it in the EL.They have lost 4 of their last 5, and in some cases against poor opponents.
Thu15/07/10UELŠiauliai 0 - 2Wisła Kraków

Thu05/08/10UELQarabağ 3 - 2Wisła Kraków

Thu29/09/11UELTwente 4 - 1Wisła Kraków

general consensus is that the 1-0 win over Fulham was anomolous and more likely this will revert to last 2 away match losses for Wisla. Fulham's need is the greater and their home record in the EL is imperious.

805pm - Metalist v Malmo FF - 1.28 home
805pm - Schalke v AEK Larnaca - 1.12 home
7 points v 1 point and with Maccaibi on 6 points and Steaua on 2 points, Schalke seem to be safe.
Thu18/08/11UELHJK 2 - 0Schalke 04

Thu25/08/11UELSchalke 04 6 - 1HJK

Thu15/09/11UELSteaua Bucureşti 0 - 0Schalke 04

Thu29/09/11UELSchalke 04 3 - 1Maccabi Haifa

Thu20/10/11UELAEK Larnaca 0 - 5Schalke 04
The only thing to scupper a similar scoreline to latest it would seem would be the maxim " beware the wounded tiger". We see it time and again, that teams who met recently and meet again quickly can react positively to ensure they do not get humiliated again.
or are Schalke just a step too far in class for the Cypriots?
Thu25/08/11UELSchalke 04 6 - 1HJK

Thu29/09/11UELSchalke 04 3 - 1Maccabi Haifa
Emphatic at home and if they are as emphatic against close 2nd in the group, then they should be more so against bottom of the group.
1.12 signals another 3/4/5 + goal haul for Schalke, but beware team changes in perceived must wins, with Bundesliga action close at hand - an away match in only 3 days time.
Thu18/08/11UELRosenborg 0 - 0AEK Larnaca

Thu25/08/11UELAEK Larnaca 2 - 1Rosenborg

Thu15/09/11UELMaccabi Haifa 1 - 0AEK Larnaca

Thu29/09/11UELAEK Larnaca 1 - 1Steaua Bucureşti

Thu20/10/11UELAEK Larnaca 0 - 5Schalke 04
Tight scorelines typical of what you would expect from a team from AEK's region, then ended witth a spanking at home.2 goals scored in the last 3 minutes put something of a gloss on the scoreline.
a feeling tonight that Schalke might be content with a 2 or 3 goal win, just functional enough to secure qualification.
Thu14/07/11UELFloriana 0 - 8AEK Larnaca

Thu04/08/11UELMladá Boleslav 2 - 2AEK Larnaca

Thu18/08/11UELRosenborg 0 - 0AEK Larnaca

Thu15/09/11UELMaccabi Haifa 1 - 0AEK Larnaca
We see a definite trend away from home, but Schalke seem a step up don't they?
1.12 usually translates into goals but I woulcd be cautious about seeking value in the goals markets. An away match in 3 days, AEK tight away, and 2 goals in last 3 minutes in previous meetings all point to a possible functional win tonight. Professional enough to earn 3 points? Or quite simply Schalke are too good?
Watch out for Schalke team changes.
805pm - Steaua Bucharest v Maccabi Haifa - 2.42 home
805pm - Twente v OB - 1.25 home
Twente on 7, Fulham on 4 and OB on 3 after 3 games in group K. Twente have already beaten OB 1-4 away and will secure qualification with a win at home this evening.
Thu15/09/11UELFulham 1 - 1Twente

Thu29/09/11UELTwente 4 - 1Wisła Kraków

Thu20/10/11UELOB 1 - 4Twente
Extremely capable against the right opponents and I would have thought, at home, Twente would have dipped under the 1.2 marker given their proven ability to score 4 goals against this type of team ( and away from home)
Thu24/02/11UELTwente 2 - 2Rubin Kazan'

Thu10/03/11UELTwente 3 - 0Zenit

Thu14/04/11UELTwente 1 - 3Villarreal

Thu29/09/11UELTwente 4 - 1Wisła Kraków
Reasonable goalscoring form at home in the EL in 2 separate campaigns in 2011.
Thu16/09/10UELGetafe 2 - 1OB

Thu30/09/10UELOB 1 - 2Stuttgart

Thu21/10/10UELYoung Boys 4 - 2OB

Thu04/11/10UELOB 2 - 0Young Boys

Wed01/12/10UELOB 1 - 1Getafe

Thu16/12/10UELStuttgart 5 - 1OB

Thu15/09/11UELWisła Kraków 1 - 3OB

Thu29/09/11UELOB 0 - 2Fulham

Thu20/10/11UELOB 1 - 4Twente
6 losses , 2 wins and a draw in the last 9 EL matches for OB suggest another struggle tonight.
Thu16/09/10UELGetafe 2 - 1OB

Thu21/10/10UELYoung Boys 4 - 2OB

Thu16/12/10UELStuttgart 5 - 1OB

Thu15/09/11UELWisła Kraków 1 - 3OB
80th and 90th minute goals suggest Wisla lacked concentration for the full 90 minutes and it puts a bit of a gloss on the scoreline.
If a team from a league as poor as the Swiss can score 4 against OB, then Twente surely can replicate this. Watch out though for a routine professional win from Twente rather than a letting loose?
Note too that OB have scored in last 4 away EL matches - this could help an overs bet and speculators can try for over 3.5 goals.
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