Friday 18 November 2011

18/11

330pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Anzhi Makhachkala - 1.43 home. Anzhi are trying to buy success with Eto'o in the bag, and an offer for Messi, Ashley Cole, and Berbatov.
24.07.2011 D1 Anzhi Makhachkala 0-1 Zenit St Petersburg
21.03.2011 D1 Zenit St Petersburg 2-0 Anzhi Makhachkala
01.03.2011 Cup Anzhi Makhachkala 2-3 Zenit St Petersburg
24.10.2010 D1 Anzhi Makhachkala 3-3 Zenit St Petersburg
04.07.2010 D1 Zenit St Petersburg 2-1 Anzhi Makhachkala
The goals for Anzhi have suddenly dried up in their last 2 matches, but Eto'o now in the team must be capable in this league?
This is 1st v 8th and with CSKA so near in the league, Zenit must be targeting 3 points here.
Sat20/08/11PRLKrylya Sovetov 2 - 5Zenit

Sun28/08/11PRLZenit 5 - 0Krasnodar

Sat10/09/11PRLLokomotiv Moskva 4 - 2Zenit

Sun18/09/11PRLRubin Kazan' 2 - 3Zenit

Sat24/09/11PRLZenit 4 - 0Tom' Tomsk

Sun02/10/11PRLSpartak Moskva 2 - 2Zenit

Sat15/10/11PRLZenit 0 - 0Dinamo Moskva

Sun23/10/11PRLRostov 1 - 3Zenit

Thu27/10/11PRLZenit 3 - 0Volga

Sun06/11/11PRLKuban' Krasnodar 1 - 1Zenit
Zenit have only lost 1 of their last 20 league matches.
Mon21/03/11PRLZenit 2 - 0Anzhi Makhachkala

Sun10/04/11PRLZenit 0 - 3CSKA Moskva

Sun24/04/11PRLZenit 3 - 0Krylya Sovetov

Sun08/05/11PRLZenit 1 - 1Lokomotiv Moskva

Sun15/05/11PRLZenit 2 - 2Rubin Kazan'

Sun29/05/11PRLZenit 3 - 0Spartak Moskva

Tue14/06/11PRLZenit 4 - 0Rostov

Wed22/06/11PRLZenit 1 - 0Kuban' Krasnodar

Sun26/06/11PRLZenit 0 - 0Terek Grozny

Sun31/07/11PRLZenit 1 - 0Spartak Nal'chik

Sun14/08/11PRLZenit 1 - 1Amkar Perm'

Sun28/08/11PRLZenit 5 - 0Krasnodar

Sat24/09/11PRLZenit 4 - 0Tom' Tomsk

Sat15/10/11PRLZenit 0 - 0Dinamo Moskva

Thu27/10/11PRLZenit 3 - 0Volga
Unbeaten in 13 at home, and the only recent home losses came against CSKA Moscow.
Zenit have kept 9 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches. Will they keep out the big spenders today?
Recent wins against 9th, 12th and 16th scoring 5-4-3. Playing 8th today.
Sun21/08/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 2 - 1Dinamo Moskva

Sat27/08/11PRLRostov 1 - 1Anzhi Makhachkala

Sun11/09/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 2 - 1Volga

Sun18/09/11PRLKuban' Krasnodar 1 - 0Anzhi Makhachkala

Mon26/09/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 2 - 2Terek Grozny

Sun02/10/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 0 - 1Lokomotiv Moskva

Sun16/10/11PRLSpartak Nal'chik 1 - 1Anzhi Makhachkala

Sun23/10/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 3 - 5CSKA Moskva

Sat29/10/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 2 - 1Amkar Perm'

Sat05/11/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 3 - 1Krylya Sovetov
Last 3 matches goal laden but saw Anzhi at home.
REcent losses against 7th, 4th and 2nd should augur well for the league leaders at home today.
Sun26/06/11PRLKrasnodar 2 - 2Anzhi Makhachkala

Sat30/07/11PRLRubin Kazan' 0 - 3Anzhi Makhachkala

Sun14/08/11PRLSpartak Moskva 3 - 0Anzhi Makhachkala

Sat27/08/11PRLRostov 1 - 1Anzhi Makhachkala

Sun18/09/11PRLKuban' Krasnodar 1 - 0Anzhi Makhachkala

Sun16/10/11PRLSpartak Nal'chik 1 - 1Anzhi Makhachkala
A more defensive bent from Anzhi after losing 3-0 to Spartak away? Suggestion is that 1-1 is the best case for Anzhi today?

We have here therefore a side at home who have conceded only 1 goal in their last 9 matches. They must win as CSKA are so near in 2nd place. Anzhi are spending big, and their acquisition of Eto'o could put at threat a proposed win to nil for Zenit?
Also look at Anzhi's last 3 matches, all tight matches -is this a new Anzhi focus on defending away from home? BUT then look at recent match against 2nd place where Anzhi conceded 5 goals.
A match tough to read. Speculators are likely to get better odds with the under 2.5 goals despite the ominous presence of the likes of Eto'o, and given the tight last 3 matches away for Anzhi, a highly speculative 0-0 back to lay for about 20 mins might work?
5pm - Paderborn v Karlsruhe - 1.72 home - German 2nd flight - not ideal but on soccerstats so we can take it through the betting research template and see what comes up.
HEAD TO HEADS
05.02.2011 D2 Paderborn 3-0 Karlsruher SC
18.09.2010 D2 Karlsruher SC 2-1 Paderborn
24.01.2010 D2 Karlsruher SC 1-2 Paderborn
14.08.2009 D2 Paderborn 2-0 Karlsruher SC
3 wins from 4 for Paderborn and the odds suggest a 2-1 type of match. Home team favoured but draw cannot be discounted.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 14th after 14 matches - Paderborn are only 6 points away from top spot.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Paderborn

RECENT HOME FORM - DLDWWW - sole loss at home against current 3rd. Paderborn have been less than emphatic at home with scorelines 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0. The 4-1 scoreline was against bottom of the league. Opponents today, 14th, are nearer bottom than top.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLLWDDWWWWDWW - very impressive recent form, and season long only 2 defeats. Unbeaten against the bottom 10 sides , of which today's opponents are based. 7 wins and a 0-0 draw in the 8 home and away matches against bottom 10.

GOAL TRENDS - 17% overs at home is a standout stat. 3 1-0's, a 1-1 and a 0-0 contribute to this. 1.72 also suggests a tight encounter.
The last 5 matches have seen under 2.5 goals and Paderborn have kept a clean sheet in 4 of the last 5 matches. In fact, they have kept a clean sheet in 7 of last 9 matches.


STREAKS - 3 match winning run at home. Have kept a clean sheet in last 2 at home. 10 match unbeaten run.Have scored in the last 7 matches.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Karlsruhe

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLDLL - only 1 win away against 12th in the league. Have lost to 1st, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th conceding 2 goals minimum on each occasion. Playing 5th today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM- LLLLLDDLDLW - recent win against bottom side.Have played 8 matches against the top 10, losing 7 and drawing 1 home and away.

GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs away from home - would be higher were it not for 3 2-0 scorelines and a single 1 -1 away. This contrasts with Paderborn at home who concede few but score few. Are paderborn meeting a side which struggles against top 10? Karlsruhe have only kept a clean sheet in 2 matches this season.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win,and have conceded in the last 5 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - what strikes me is the mirror image between home and away sides. Paderborn have lost only one at home, Karlsruhe have won only 1 away from home. Paderborn have 7 wins and a draw home and away against bottom 10 sides. Karlsruhe have played 8 matches against the top 10 home and away, losing 7 and drawing 1.
There is no real congruency with the goals markets, what stands out is Paderborn keeping 7 clean sheets in their last 9 matches, and their propensity for tight matches, scoring, generally, only a single goal but not losing. Karlsruhe though have conceded 2 goals minimum against 1st, 7th, 8th, 9th and10th away.
Speculators? - 0-0 back to lay in the hope Paderborn continue their relative goal drought at home ( may be risky as karlsruhe are ropey against the top 10)
Paderborn should not lose. Speculate perhaps on 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 scoreline?


7pm -
Den Bosch v AGOVV - 1.25 home
HEAD TO HEADS
11.02.2011 D2 FC Den Bosch 2-2 AGOVV Apeldoorn
19.11.2010 D2 AGOVV Apeldoorn 3-1 FC Den Bosch
19.03.2010 D2 FC Den Bosch 1-0 AGOVV Apeldoorn
30.11.2009 D2 AGOVV Apeldoorn 2-0 FC Den Bosch
30.01.2009 D2 AGOVV Apeldoorn 3-2 FC Den Bosch
nothing in the head to heads suggests Den Bosch are worthy of the 1.25 quote.

LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 18th ( bottom)

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Den Bosch

RECENT HOME FORM - DDLDLW -losses against 4th and 6th and sole win was 5-1 against 17th - a sign of what could be against 18th?

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDDWDLDLLWWW - 3 match winning streak against 3rd, 9th and 17th. Losses have come against 4th, 5th and 6th.

GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs at home.last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals.Den Bosch have scored 3-5-3 in their last 3 matches.

STREAKS - 5 overall without a draw, have scored in last 4 matches.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - AGOVV

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLL - it seems recent form can supercede head to heads on this occasion surely? 6-4-1-3-5-4 conceded in away matches by AGOVV this season .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLDLWLLLLL - draw and win came at home, and out of the blue, against 2nd and 3rd.

GOAL TRENDS - 83% overs away quite obviously down to goal concession.9 of 12 matches this season over 2.5 goals. 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. They have conceded in all bar one match.Have conceded 6-6-4 against 6th, 7th and 9th ( playing 8th today)

STREAKS - 6 match losing streak away from home. Have conceded in last 7 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - last 2 head to heads over 2.5 goals in a league renowned for goals. Losses against 4th and 6th for the home side suggest they could cope with bottom side. 3 match winning streak includes a win against 17th which is encouraging.

7pm -
Go Ahead Eagles v Fortuna Sittard - 1.49 home
HEAD TO HEADS
28.02.2011 D2 Fortuna Sittard 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles
05.11.2010 D2 Go Ahead Eagles 3-0 Fortuna Sittard
09.04.2010 D2 Fortuna Sittard 2-0 Go Ahead Eagles
28.08.2009 D2 Go Ahead Eagles 2-0 Fortuna Sittard
13.02.2009 D2 Fortuna Sittard 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles
Go ahead have won 4 of the last 5 without conceding. They lost away in April 2010 without scoring.
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 14th after 12 matches

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Go ahead eagles

RECENT HOME FORM - WLDWWW - sole loss was a 2-3 against current 5th placed. 5 of 6 matches comfortably over 2.5 goals.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLDDLWLWLWL - inconsistent of late with no draw in 6 but cannot win 2 on the trot overall ( have won 3 at home in a row). Against the bottom 6, have won 2 and drawn 1 at home and lost one against 2nd bottom away from home.

GOAL TRENDS - 83% overs at home, 75% overall which ties in with this league's reputation for goals. Last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. 9 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals. Only kept a clean sheet in first match of season, and only failed to score in 1 match this season.

STREAKS - 3 match home winning streak.No draw in 7 overall.Have scored and conceded in last 6 matches. Have scored in last 6 home matches and conceded in last 11 matches overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Fortuna Sittard

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLD - against teams in the bracket 4th to 10th inclusive away from home, conceding 3-2-1-3-3. Go ahead are currently 12th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWLDLWLLDDL - wins at home against 11th, 17th and 18th ( 2nd bottom and bottom )

GOAL TRENDS - 80% overs away from home. Have conceded in all away matches . Fortuna last season had a huge sequence of over 2.5 goals matches, and it seems this is the away characteristic this year.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win, 5 overall without a win, have conceded in the last 5.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

7pm -
Willem II v Almere City - 1.44 home
HEAD TO HEADS
no head to heads
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 9th after 12 matches.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Willem II

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWLW - loss against 8th and draw against 12th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLWWWLWWLWL - no draw in 10.Have played 6 matches against top 10 at home and away ( Almere are in top 10) and not drawn any - an angle in - lay the draw? 3 of 4 losses have come away from home.

GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs throughout - home and away. Meaning 2/3rd of all matches over 2.5 goals. A run of 5 consecutive over 2.5 goal matches ended with a 1-0 win and a 1-0 loss last 2 matches. Willem have failed to score in 2 of last 3 matches against 1st and 8th. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches this season.

STREAKS - 5 at home without a draw - 10 overall without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Almere City

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLDD - now we know the home team don't like draws. What is the probability of Almere drawing a 3rd consecutive away match? The draws came against 14th and 17th, not quite 3rd place are they?
Have not played any of the top 5 away but lost 2-1 to current 6th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWWLWLWLDDL - draws suddenly crept in to last 3 matches. Have played 7 matches against top 13 and no draw, in fact they lost 4 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - 92% over 2.5 goals overall this season tells you all about what is expected away from home. Have conceded 2-3-3-0-3-2 away from home. Likelihood of conceding 2/3 rather than none, don't you think? 11/12 matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 4 without a win away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS



815pm -
Naval v Benfica - 1.33 away - Portugeuse Cup match so not much research to do.
10.04.2011 D1 Naval 1º Maio 2-1 SL Benfica
14.11.2010 D1 SL Benfica 4-0 Naval 1º Maio
05.04.2010 D1 Naval 1º Maio 2-4 SL Benfica
09.11.2009 D1 SL Benfica 1-0 Naval 1º Maio
Who will be up for the Cup?



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