Tuesday, 22 November 2011

22/11

Good research yesterday. I was very happy with both matches played.
Champions League mostly today means no traditional research and I am less confident
230pm - Bahrain v Japan - 1.43 away - it would seem this is an under 23 match AFC Asian Olympic qualifiers.Not for me I'm afraid as there is very little to go on.
5pm - CSKA Moscow v Lille - 2.38 home - 2-2 in September saw Lille 1-0 up at half time, then 2-0 up in the 2nd half before 2 72nd and 90th minute goals by CSKA to equalise.
CSKA find the CL a little difficult with only a single impressive 3-0 win against Trabonzspor
Onconclusive at home, but 2 tight matches against Inter Milan may give CSKA home confidence.
From the UEFA website, we learn that both teams need a win ( 2nd and 4th) - Lille lose and their CL is ended. Doumbia not playing this match ( he scored both CSKA goals against Lille.)
Lille coach retells this is "backs against the wall" time, and Lille have also missed their flight so the preparation for this match is less than ideal.

I cannot do typical research but logic would point to over 2.5 goals , don't you think, with Lille and CSKA having to win. Slight concern that CSKA's number one striker is out, and Lille missed their flight to Moscow.
CSKA play on the plastic pitch and obviously are more used to it.


745pm - B Munich v Villarreal - 1.2 home - -we all know that Bayern at home normally means goals and the likelihood of a clean sheet. A win will confirm Bayern's place in the next stage of the CL.
Bayern top with 10 points and Villareal bottom with none. Bastian Schweinsteiger out for BAyern, but the Arjen Robben is in . Injury concerns for Villareal but a 3 match winning streak in the Bundesliga. But Rossi out, Rodrigues, Zapata, Nilmar all out.
Only 1 draw in last 25 champions league matches for Bayern was a 1-1 against Napoli in this current campaign.
4 matches with clean sheets but trouble against Napoli.
Not really a must win as 2nd and 3rd play each other tonight and they both can't win.
No draw in 13 at home. Bayern were 3-0 up against Napoli last match.
Only 1 win recently in the CL was against OB Odense. Have only scored 1 goal in their last 4 matches. 5 of the above matches without scoring.
Only 1 win in the last 12 CL away matches. Beware though the cornered animal. Nothing really to play for , although the manager has expressed an interest in the Europa League. Villareal's need is greater than Bayern's as this is not a must win for Bayern, as I already mentioned, City and Napoli clash tonight and both cannot win.
1.2 is very short for Bayern instinctually, but they have been devastating domestically and at home. It is a matter of whether they are mentally switched on this evening. They do not need to bust a gut if they lose.
745pm - Birmingham v Burnley - 1.84 home
HEAD TO HEADS
01.05.2010PRBirmingham City2-1Burnley FC
03.10.2009PRBurnley FC2-1Birmingham City
07.02.2009LChBirmingham City1-1Burnley FC
Head to heads not really relevant as we face a different league and different circumstances.
LEAGUE POSITION - 13th v 21st - but Brum have only played 14 to other teams' 16/17 matches. They are thus in a false position and could go 3rd if winning 3 games in hand.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Birmingham

RECENT HOME FORM- WWDWWDD - unbeaten at home. Draws against 11th, 12th and 14th. Wins against 5th, 8th, 20th 23rd all wins without conceding. Home form built on defense. 2 draws were 1-1 and 1 was 0-0.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLDWLDWWWWDLD - no win in last 3 - all losses have come away, 3 of them against top 10.You suspect a worse case draw for Brum this evening ? Against the bottom 5, it's 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0 wins, and Burnley are firmly ensconsed in the bottom 5.

GOAL TRENDS - 14% overs at home down to an ultra solid defence. Last 6 matches have been under 2.5 goals. 2 2-0 scorelines saw very late goals. A recent 3-1 win saw Brum score 3 in the 70th+ minutes. Brum have scored 10 in the last half hour ( 7 in the last quarter of an hour) - how can we use this? Perhaps it hints at under 2.5 goals ONLY TRADING THOUGH ! Brum have kept a clean sheet in 4 of the last 6 matches. The goals they conceded in last 2 matches came in 61st and 70th+ minutes.

STREAKS- 7 without defeat at home. No win in 2 at home, 3 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - -Burnley

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLWLWL - no draw and wholly inconsistent. If this sequence continues today, it will signal a Burnley win. Losses against 9th, 11th, 15th, 22nd. Wins against 10th, 20th, and 23rd.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLDWLLDWWLLWWLLL - no draw in 9 matches overall fits in with Brum at home.Recent wins against Coventry ( below them in the league) and Blackpool at home 3-1 ( (7th). recent losses against 14th (H), 15th (A), 8th (H), 22nd (A), 5th (H)

GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs away from home because they have conceded 2-2-2-3 in the away losses and had 2 2-1 wins away. Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Burnley have scored and conceded in the last 5 matches. Burnley have kept a clean sheet in only one match this season. Lost 1-0 and 2-0 to 14th and 15th, and playing 13th today.

STREAKS - 7 away without a draw, 9 overall without a draw.Have scored in the last 5 overall and conceded in the last 7 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - remember here that Brum have generally played 3 less than the rest of the league. If they win the 3 in hand they could be 3rd! False position in the league therefore.
Brum are unbeaten at home -have beaten 20th and 23rd and playing 21st today.
All losses for Brum came away.
No draw at home for Burnley , current LWL sequence. Losses v 9/11/15/22nd. No draw in 9 overall.
Against the bottom 5 ( where Burnley are), Brum have won 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0.Burnley lost 1-0 and 2-0 against 14th and 15th and are playing 13th today.
GOALS - 14% overs at home for Brum because they are solid defensively . Last 6 matches unders, Clean sheet in 4 of last 6, All wins bar 1 at home without conceding.Scored 10 in the last 1/2 hour meaning under 2.5 goals could be a goer for traders and 0-0 might be an option early doors. 57% overs for Burnley because they have conceded 2-2-2-3 in losses. Clean sheet in only 1 match all season.
Conclusion. Given Brum are so solid at home, unders looks a goer, but Brum did win 3-0 against bottom 5, BUT they score majority of goals in 2nd half.
Unders surely, 0-0 to start with, Speculators look to possible 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 Brum win.Half time if 0-0 , prepare for a Brum goal if the form is anything to go by. This match seems to rest on Brum being solid defensively at home.
NOTE - I have no access to team news - please ensure you check if any key players are out.
745pm - Lyon v Ajax - 1.78 home - this is 2nd v 3rd. Ajax on 7 points and Lyon on 4 points. Must win for both sides, so 0-0 useless this evening.
Not really expected to get anything against Real Madrid, and a 0-0 at Ajax. In UEFA's website, the Luon manager relates that his side are in poor form of late domestically, having lost the last 2 2-1. What chance another 2-1 scoreline today?
Loss v Madrid not a surprise. 2 wins against Rubin and Zagreb convincing enough.
Loss v Real Madrid similar to Lyon. Beat Zagreb as did Lyon.
Away from home, beat Zagreb and lost to Madrid.
My concern is the lack of confidence from the head coaches on the UEFA website. A draw will suit Ajax at the moment, although a win much preferred.
A difficult match to weigh up for me, and not one on top of my list.
745pm - Man Utd v Benfica - 1.57 home - -Man Utd and Benfica are both on 8 points with Basle on 5 points. If both draw, then Basle have a chance.
1-1 draw v Benfica and Benfica were very good at home, very attack minded. They scored 1st against United. Only beaten clear outsiders.
MAn Utd at home drew 3-3 against Basel where they were 2-0 up, and beat Otelul 2-0.
Man utd have only lost 2 matches at home in the CL since 2002, both 0-1 losses. No loss in last 10.
What is immediately noticeable is a general trend towards United scoring 2 and over 2.5 goals.
Fergie's press conference points to both team wanting to win and what he thinks will be an open game. He makes mention of the recent run of 5 clean sheets in all competitions. Fergie also points to 5 match winning sequence which he sees has building momentum.
Benfica are unbeaten in 2011 CL matches. Conceded 2 away to Benfica and a feeling United could replicate that. Kept a clean sheet in last 2 away wins.
United usually deliver at home in big CL nights. Will they continue scoring 2 as they have at home in the CL. REmember United have lost only 2 matches at home in the CL since 2002 and they were 0-1's.
Benfica certainly have the capability of scoring and if they score first, then get enhanced betting.
Likely a tight early encounter ( cue Giggs 2nd minute goal) early doors could see 0-0 backers benefit for 1/4 hour?
The Benfica manager points to United's consistent 60/70% possession, and if that continues, then United surely will be favs to score first.
Rooney is playing.
745pm - Napoli v Man City - 2.18 away
We all know City domestically are superb, scoring at will and over 2.5 goals. Bayern top on 10 points, City 2nd on 7 points, Napoli 3rd on 5 points.These are the 3 in with a chance of qualifying.
City rested 5 players against Newcastle at the weekend. Napoli could not really rest that many first teamers.
First time in the Champions League for Napoli and emphasis on defence against City and Bayern. Villareal win, well all other teams have beaten Villareal.
Napoli away drew with City and lost 3-2 to Bayern after Bayern were 3-0 up. Now this might point at what City could be capable now they are in better form.
Both of these sides are newcomers to the CL
Inevitable that Villareal would lose in their current form. Draw with Napoli and loss to Bayern perhaps showing naivete in this better competition. Since the last CL match, City have scored 4-4-6-3-3-3
Away City lost 2-0 to Bayern and beat Villareal.
In their current form City are irresistible and 2.18 away is appealing. In the UEFA website, Mancini mentions it is difficult to play every 3 days. That is my knee jerk reaction hoping that we see a better City than the last time.

745pm - Real Madrid v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.11 home


Clean sheet the standout here and 3+ goals at home against better teams than Zagreb


Kind of inevitable really. Lost last 5 without scoring against won last 4 without conceding.
Remember 1.11 indicates 3/4 minimum goal win probably to nil.

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