As ever with the Champions League, it is difficult to read matches. Base decisions I suppose of teams likely to win but who must also win. Valencia look primed and a win to nil a possible call too.
1130am - Bansko v Levski Sofia - 1.15 away - 1-3 in 2010 head to head in the Cup and another cup match today - B Grupa league v A Grupa League. 4 of Levski's last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
1130am - Sportist Svoge v Litex Lovech - 1.18 away - another Bulgarian Cup match and the same gulf in leagues as above. Not worth researching as likely illiquid .
12pm - Bulgaria (W) v Belgium (W) - 1.13 away - some of these lady goalkeepers are dodgy to say the least, and with 1.13 signalling goals, without any real research, it may be worth speculating on over.4.5 goals as a trade only if liquid enough. Women's Euro qualifier - 5-0 to Belgium on 19th November, only complacency should stop a repeat? 6-4-3-1-4-5 conceded by Bulgaria in their last 6.5pm - AEK v Levadiakos - 1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 11.04.2010 | D1 | Levadiakos | 0-0 | AEK Athens | |
| 13.12.2009 | D1 | AEK Athens | 3-2 | Levadiakos | |
| 22.03.2009 | D1 | AEK Athens | 3-1 | Levadiakos |
AEK have not lost recent encounters and have scored 3 in 2 home matches, albeit 2 years ago.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 15th after 9 games for AEK and just one for Levadiakos.
With this knowledge we are not researching on a level playing field and this is not a match I will research further. I am stumped as to why Levadiakos have played only one match and how on earth they will catch up?
5pm - Zenit St Petersburg v APOEL - 1.49 home - APOEL lead the group on 8 points with Zenit 2nd on 7 points. Porto are next on 4, and Shaktar have 2 points.
515pm - Denmark (W) v Armenia (W) - Denmark unbackable.
530pm - Legia Warsaw v Zaglebie Lubin - 1.44 home. At soccerstats.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 09.04.2011 | D1 | Legia Warszawa | 2-2 | Zaglebie Lubin | |
| 18.09.2010 | D1 | Zaglebie Lubin | 2-1 | Legia Warszawa | |
| 04.12.2009 | D1 | Zaglebie Lubin | 0-0 | Legia Warszawa | |
| 02.08.2009 | D1 | Legia Warszawa | 4-0 | Zaglebie Lubin |
Mixed bag in head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 15th after 13 matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Legia Warsaw
RECENT HOME FORM - WLLWWW - no draw at home. Losses against 1st and 11th . Have scored 2-2-3-3 in the wins.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWLLWWWWDDW - losses against 1st, 5th and 11th all 2-1 losses. Have played 4 matches home and away against the bottom 5 ( where today's opponents lie) and won 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-1.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home. Have scored in all matches at home. Legia have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 home matches. Have kept a clean sheet in the last 7 matches. Have had 2 0-0's in the last 3 matches, the only 2 matches where they failed to score.
STREAKS - 3 match winning streak at home. 6 without a draw at home. Have scored in last 6 matches at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Zaglebie
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLL - no win away .Losses v 3rd, 6th, 9th and 12th
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLDDLDWLLWLLW - no draw in 7 matches. Only 3 wins this season have come at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 5 of the last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals. 60% overs away from home. Have only kept a clean sheet in 3 this season, 2 matches at home.
STREAKS - 5 away without a win, 7 overall without a draw. Have scored in last 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no draw at home for Legia, and a superb clean sheet run which puts them in prime position today for a possible win to nil. Opponents have only kept a clean sheet in 3 matches this season. Only 3 wins this season have come at home.
730pm - England (W) v Serbia (W) - 1.07 home - 2-2 in September head to head saw England 2-0 up ( 1 goal was an own goal) and Serbia get the draw in the 94th minute. England have drawn 2 of their qualifiers and won the other at home v Slovenia. Serbia beat Slovenia and Croatia in their last 2 qualifiers, lost heavily v Holland and drew with Eng-er-land. England drew 0-0 with the Dutch. The
745pm - AC Milan v Barcelona - 1.85 away - both sides are through, a match for the needy and greedy, a dead rubber . Time to move on.....
745pm - Arsenal v Dortmund - 2.24 home - Arsenal top with 8 points, Marseille 2nd with 7 points, and Dortmund 3rd with 7 points.
Arsenal qualify with a draw, and for Dortmund it is " all or nothing" as the manager describes the match.
Robin Van Persie the key for Arsenal tonight, and the key to the game really. Stop him, and you stop THE major goal threat.
Not too impressive at home just yet for Arsenal, but there is no doubt they have improved since September. Clean sheets against Marseille last twice.
Arsenal have only been beaten once at home since Sept 2004. Therein lies their strength this evening.
11 wins and 2 draws in the last 13 home CL matches.Arsenal have not conceded more than 1 goal in 12 of their last 13 matches at home in the Cl
How buoyed with Dortmund be after their 0-1 away win over Bayern in the Bundesliga. It might spark something tonight? Their Champions league performances though have been poor, with 2 3-0 losses , including against relatively poor Olympiakos.
Arsenal are usually reliable at home in the CL, but you never know with do or die sides how they will play ( Dortmund)
745pm - Celtic v Dunfermline - 1.19 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 07.02.2010 | Cup | Dunfermline | 2-4 | Celtic FC | |
| 26.05.2007 | Cup | Celtic FC | 1-0 | Dunfermline |
Irrelevant head to heads as Dunfermline are newcomers to the SPL.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 10th. - Celtic are 10 points behind Rangers already this season and must win their remaining matches.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Celtic
RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWWD - loss v St Johnstone saw Celtic miss an early penalty to open the scoring. Recent 0-0 draw with Hibs at home. Dunfermline are 3rd bottom. Celtic have beaten 2nd bottom and bottom 2-1 and 2-0, and are priced at least get 2 goals this evening.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLWWLWLDWDWW - unbeaten in last 5 but inconsistent. Losses against Hearts and Rangers were away.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home. 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Last match was 0-2 win over Inverness.Celtic have kept a clean sheet in half of all matches this season.
STREAKS - 4 at home without defeat, 5 overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Dunfermline
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLLDWL - all wins away have been 1-0's .Losses away have come against St Mirren, Kilmarnock, and Aberdeen. In 2 of those, they conceded 3 and 4.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWWLLDLLLDLWL - only 3 wins have come away against 4th, 7th and 9th.
GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs away from home. Yet to meet the top 3 away from home which will likely have an influence on this stat.
STREAKS - 3 overall without a draw, and have scored in the last 4 matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
745pm - Leverkusen v Chelsea - 2.36 away - Villas Boas out of his depth?
Chelsea are top with 8 points, Leverkusen 2nd with 6 points and Velencia 3rd with 5 points. So rather precarious for Chelsea if they lose today. And the bookies are none too confident , with their 2.36 quote.
A win for either side secures qualification with a game to play.
Boas acknowledges a draw would be tolerated but a recent domestic losing run means a win would do more good mentally.
67th and 90th minute goals flattered Chelsea a little in head to head. At home thoguh Bayer have scored 2 goals in each match and the match against Valencia was a good result ( I was expecting the 3-1 loss that followed to be the norm).
Confidence at home albeit these are the only 2 CL home matches since 2005.
| Tue | 13/09/11 | UCL | Chelsea | 2 - 0 | Bayer Leverkusen | View events | More info |
| Wed | 28/09/11 | UCL | Valencia | 1 - 1 | Chelsea | View events | More info |
| Wed | 19/10/11 | UCL | Chelsea | 5 - 0 | Genk | View events | More info |
| Tue | 01/11/11 | UCL | Genk | 1 - 1 | Chelsea |
Chelsea have 2 1-1 draws away from home.In both matches Chelsea scored first. As I said above, Villas Boas knows that a draw will be tolerated away this evening.
I must admit I don't like calling these matches when there are so many dynamics at play. Chelse need a draw, ergo they will not be busting a gut for a win. What of BAyer scoring 2 in 2 games at home so far. opponents not quite in Chelsea's league?
745pm - Valencia v Genk - 1.21 home - last game of interest and the odds put valencia as clear favourites.
Valencia are in the same group as the above 2 teams and they know that both of the above 2 teams cannot win this evening. A win puts Valencia on 8 points and one of Chelsea and Bayer are going to drop points ( a draw sees both dropping points)
So we have here a 1.21 side, at home, who must win.
| ue | 13/09/11 | UCL | Genk | 0 - 0 | Valencia | More info | |
| Wed | 28/09/11 | UCL | Valencia | 1 - 1 | Chelsea | View events | More info |
| Wed | 19/10/11 | UCL | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 1 | Valencia | View events | More info |
| Tue | 01/11/11 | UCL | Valencia | 3 - 1 | Bayer Leverkusen |
I would have expected a La Liga club to have performed a bit better . 0-0 away at Genk is poor, 2-1 loss to Bayer amply compensated for at home.
At home they are unbeaten. What we want to see tonight is a turnaround like the one against Bayer.
| Tue | 13/09/11 | UCL | Genk | 0 - 0 | Valencia | More info | |
| Wed | 28/09/11 | UCL | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 0 | Genk | View events | More info |
| Wed | 19/10/11 | UCL | Chelsea | 5 - 0 | Genk | View events | More info |
| Tue | 01/11/11 | UCL | Genk | 1 - 1 | Chelsea |
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