9/12

Key to success yesterday was heeding these words
"remember this is in running so you can manage your positions, especially if Leeds take the lead."
And leeds took the lead after 20 minutes and traded as low as 1.08 to lay because the market, like me, expected a Leeds win.
I always trade out as I put £200 stakes on these bets and that's a lot to lose! Kettering equalised - Leeds hit the bar twice, must have broken the world record for shots on target and had a goalline clearance with seconds to go, but this was a successful trade.With kick off at 8pm it is easier to manage positions than if the game was in the early afternoon.

I did the same with Arsenal v Stoke and learned from an earlier one a day choice where the team took the lead and ended drawing BUT that game was NOT in running.
This trading habit was also effective with enhanced betting Chelsea a shock goal down and available to back at 1.65. They equalised of course!!
AC Milan? 1-0 down and backable at a high of 5.1 but I was watching this game and they just did not convince me ,so I let it go despite the inevitable equaliser (again!!)
THe 1200 Lingfield saw a superb probability bet with the 3 market leaders taking up the first 3 places and with hindsight this should have been the one a day selection as it was such a good bet.

Football choices first
Inter v Rubin Kazan - Inter don't lose at home under Mourinho - right? So lay their opponents until this unbelievable record ends. Rubin are 8.4 to lay which is the equivalent of a 1.12 back bet if using fixed liabilities . eg if I normally back with £200, in this case I will place a lay bet with a FIXED LIABILITY of £200 - In running - - draw 0-0 or 1-1 suits Inter - both are tied 2nd place. The Rubin coach mentions tiredness after the end of the Russian season. The lay of Rubin looks the way to go here, given Mourinho's confidence and exceptional home record

Lyon v Debrecen - 1.23 and correct score 2 market is up (signalling Betfair's thoughts that there will be goals) - whipping boys are out again - a good sign is when you see the +2.5 goal Debrecen handicap market on BEtfair - in running - Lyon ,with a win, will take first place against a side with nothing to play for - Lyon beat them 4-0 at their ground so more of that tonight please!!
Millwall v Staines town - 1.26 - BOOYAKASHA! Ali G's boys visit the Den in another Cup game
In running
Sevilla v Rangers - 1.41 - Rangers out now - +1.5 goal handicap market is up, as is over/under 6.5 goal market -signalling goals and where Sevilla are concerned, goals usually flow at home - in running - Sevilla need just one point to remain top of the group. I can't see Sevilla losing and laying Rangers is the same as a 1.09 shot. Sevilla have been backed down to sub 1.39 and this may be a game where we can chance a back of Sevilla to lay off after they score first ( like Leeds)

Heavy ground at Hexham today makes choices there difficult
1240 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Ranjobaie, 4/1 King Ozzy, 13/2 Dona, 12/1 Akiem, 14/1 Wembley Way, 16/1 Makhzoon, Sail And Return, 20/1 Babilu, 40/1 Ba Dreamflight, 66/1 Danzig Fox, Racing Stripes, Tribunel, 100/1 Fan Club.

DIOMED VERDICT: RANJOBAIE stands out, having won all three of his starts in French bumpers and made a highly promising start to his hurdling career at Warwick last month. Dona is preferred to King Ozzy as the next best.

A conundrum - do we take the price as confidence in the fav? - now 1/2 in places, because it's heavy ground at Leicester too and this fav has only ran on good ground thus far

100 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Zubova, 100/30 Kirsty´s Boy, 4/1 Inside Track, 6/1 Anjomarba, 10/1 Cuthbert, 12/1 Indigo Ink, 33/1 New York Lights.

DIOMED VERDICT: ZUBOVA is bred to stay this sort of trip and the switch to claiming company can see her break her duck. I like Hannon/Hughes in Claimers but only 2 places mean we must expect the win if backing this to place 1.36 to place 120 HEXHAM BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Cunning Clarets, 7/1 Birch Hill Bedouin, 10/1 What A Steel, 16/1 Transact, 20/1 Mole Control, 25/1 Macdougal, 33/1 Super Ally, 50/1 Also Jo, Eco Story, 66/1 Uncle Michael. DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to oppose CUNNING CLARETS. What A Steel may be the best each-way alternative. Maintains the 1/3 despite heavy ground conditions . Watch out for Macdougal - hint of a market mover Fav has run creditably in heavy and soft, but you saw with an apparent good thing in Anak at 1/6 - they still fall, more so with worse ground 1.1 to place and 1.45 to win 200 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tiddliwinks, 100/30 Billberry, 5/1 Dig Deep, 6/1 King Of Defence, 8/1 Caprio, 10/1 Hustle, Totally Focussed, 25/1 Timeteam. DIOMED VERDICT: TIDDLIWINKS didn't quite see it out over 1m last time but this shorter trip should be right up his street. Very interesting as it's now a 6 runner race ( like the 1200 yesterday) and 3 places.Bilbery and Tiddlewinks both 7/4 here BUT there is only one real outsider meaning a tight race. I like Richard Hughes which leads me towards Tiddliwinks. Effectively a 50/50 race - 3 places and 6 horses fighting for them 1.32 Tiddliwinks , 1.29 Bilberry , 1.79 King of Defense to place. 240 LEIC BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pause And Clause, 5/2 Theatrical Moment, 100/30 Prince Taime, 8/1 Tanks For That, 10/1 Rear Gunner, 16/1 Barnhill Brownie, 25/1 Bedizen, 33/1 Petito, 66/1 Peachey Moment. DIOMED VERDICT: Theatrical Moment sets quite a decent standard on chase form on his latest fourth in an Ascot handicap but has to prove he is as good at 2m4f now. He is up against a couple of useful hurdlers in PAUSE AND CLAUSE and Prince Taime in any case though, with preference for Pause And Clause. Prince Taime wasn't as fluent as he might have been on last month's chase debut at Ascot. Looks a race we can split into 2 - 4 horses over 20/1 and 4 horses under 20/1. Of course it is the latter to focus on from a placing perspective Beginners chase though! 1.23 to place the fav 250 HEXHAM BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Abbeybraney, Evs The Hollinwell, 16/1 Indy Mood, 50/1 Seeking Power, 200/1 Chief Lady Olwyn. DIOMED VERDICT: The Hollinwell is held in high regard by both trainer and jockey but he has a tough task conceding 6lb to ABBEYBRANEY. 5 runners, 2 are at 33/1 and 100/1 so barring falls, a 3 horse race with prices at 1/2 , 7/4 and 16/1 Any involvement here is on the basis that none of the front 2 fall , and only the front 2 dominate. They take up the book in this race 1.12 and 1.25 the ront 2 to place ( note the markets are illiquid so this 1.12 is some chancer trying to lay at as low a price as possible) 650 KEMP BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ipswich Lad, 5/2 Red Courtier, 3/1 Cast Of Stars, 12/1 Kyoatee Kilt, 14/1 Creevy, 16/1 Sparkling Crown, 33/1 Sisters Warning, The Great Husk. DIOMED VERDICT: Quite a stamina test for 2yos and that should suit CAST OF STARS who has been shaping as though that is what is needed. Very intereresting - the straight 8 means 3 places and only 3 under 12/1 in the betting. Note - 2 year olds and middle distances don't always mix!! - very illiquid market at time of writing 850 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mr Plod, 6/1 Noah Jameel, 8/1 Very Distinguished, 10/1 Fantasy Ride, Kames Park, 14/1 Spring Fashion, 16/1 Corrib, 20/1 Jezza, Sovento, 25/1 Flying Gazebo, Michael Laskey, 33/1 Innactualfact, Time To Play. DIOMED VERDICT: MR PLOD (nap) has improved since joining his current yard and is taken to defy his penalty. Another price gapper in a class 6 0-55 handicap and we had 2 yesterday who both won ( Shadow lengthen and another in the last race which I missed in my initial analysis) "hard to beat" under a penalty - SJ Craine won on him last time so at least it's a familiar jockey - 1.29 to place SHORTLIST Inter v Rubin - lay Rubin at odds of 8.4 for a fixed liability which will be the same amount as you usually stake A draw 0-0 and 1-1 suits Inter Milan, so I want to cover the draw. Mourinho home record for Inter, Chelsea , Porto is imperious which is why I want to LAY Rubin rather than back Inter. Keep laying Inter's opponenets at hoe until Inter lose that home record Lyon v Debrecen - 1.21 - 4-0 head to head - a team needing to cement top spot v a team with NOWT to play for.1.56 Lyon half time is tradeable and may be worth a shout for them to make the breakthrough in the first 45 minutes at home , as is the 1.21 which should crumble after Lyon get the breakthrough Sevilla v Rangers 1.29 over 1.5 goals is very enticing, especially if Rangers score first! 120 HEXHAM - Cunning clarets - interesting that, despite the heavy ground, the 1/3 stands in the live market for " hard to oppose " fav . 1.1 to place is plenty short enough given ground 200 LINGFIELD - like the 1200 Southwell yesterday , a 6 runner race paying out on 3 places still . Dominated by Bilberry and Tiddliwinks , any involvement rests on a replication of the 1200 Southwell where the first 3 in the betting were the first 3 home. NEGATIVE - there is only one real outsider here with 2 other horses priced 8/1 and 10/1 ( hardly dismissive prices) A probability race this one where you hope Bilberry and Tiddliwinks dominate 850 KEMPTON Another price gapper in a 0-55 class 6 handicap in Mr Plod - 2 from 2 yesterday augurs well for this one. ONE A DAY Standout bets for me would be Lyon at 1.23 v Debrecen - why? scored 3 away at the weekend , beat Debrecen 4-0 already ,and NEED a win ( unlike Chelsea yesterday) 200 Lingfield just from a probability perspective Cunning clarets because ,despite the ground ,the 1/3 remains in the live market - 1.11 to place Mr Plod in the 850 Kempton - while this low class handicap price gapper system is working, why not exploit it. So what are the negatives? Complacency for Lyon, who to chose in the 200 Lingfield , ground for Cunning clarets, and some 9 hours to the off for Mr Plod ( where anything can happen) As you've seen, I do favour football because it means I don't have to chance backing horses over obstacles in heavy ground.So it will be Lyon for me AS MY ONE A DAY, and if they make the breakthrough early, then this can be traded and we can secure the one a day profits and move on. I did get involved with the 1200 Southwell probability race and may do so with the 200 Lingfield if one of the horses becomes a clear favourite (I'll report back toorrow if I have - and that will be my one a day wrapped up)