Shakhtar v Illychivets Mariupol - 1.11 - midday - won all 7 at home and strong in Europa league - have scored 2 goals twice against these opponents at their ground. Away side won last match, but prior to that lost 5 and drew 2
Bochum v B Munich - 1.47 away side - 230pm - Bayern have returned to form and will be flying after their impressive win against a usually tough to beat at home Juventus mid week. Bochum's only win at home has come against bottom side, and only then 1-0. Have only played Werder of the top sides at home and lost emphatically 4-1. Bochum away to the big teams have lost
Bayern are on an 8 game unbeaten run, but most worryingly ,these included 4 draws.
Chelsea v Everton - 1.27 home side - 3pm - perfect and very consistent home form for Chelski .Have only failed to score 2 in one match and that was Man Utd.Everton have only beaten West Ham and Portsmouth (both in the bottom 3) away from home, and have only played one of the top 4, losing the Man Utd. BUT, how will the comeback from 2-0 down at Spurs have increased their confidence?
Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.32 home side - 3pm - unbeaten at home and decent enough against Sevilla mid week ( albeit against a side already qualified) - head to head 2-1 to Rangers, indicates St Johnstone could score.Away from home, St Johnstone have been beaten 5-2 and 3-0 by top 3 sides, and have actually scored in all bar one away match. This match is NOT IN RUNNING which is a pity as I would have liked to have considered an over 1.5 goal bet here. Still, St Johnstone's performances against top 3 sides is bad enough to consider that Rangers can replicate their colleagues
Tottenham v Wolves - 1.3 home side - 3pm - impressive home form spoilt by a 1-0 loss to Stoke and 3-1 to Man Utd, both foreseeable in their own ways.71% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals and so 1.18 over 1.5 goals looks solid enough. Should have beaten Everton away last time but for a missed penalty and poor defending ( and it is the latter which is good for a goals bet). Spurs have not faced any of the bottom 6 at home but their away form to these teams makes interesting reading. They have scored 2 goals or more in each away match ( and it is hoped this should be replicated or exceeded with home advantage)If we look at Wolves performance against teams perceived to have goals in them, then they lost 1-0 to Man City and 5-2 away to Sunderland. This looks a standout game for me, but a decision needs to be made regarding a match odds bet or a goals bet.
FC Basel v Biel - 1.14 (illiquid market on betfair - 1/8 with Ladbrokes) - 445pm - swiss cup game so no head to heads and difficult to guage away team AND motivation of home team. Home side is usually characterised by goals
Twente v Breda - 1.4 - 645pm - Twente are unbeaten this season and have only drawn 2 games, against 2nd and 4th teams.Against the 3 top 5 teams they have played away from home, Breda have conceded 12 goals ( skewed a little by the 6-0 defeat away to Ajax) - this augurs well for Twente and a goals bet too. NOT IN RUNNING alas so only the over/under 2.5 goals on Betfair. If Twente can replicate what 2nd, 3rd and 5th sides have done to Breda when Breda visited, then the expectation is for a comfortable 2 or 3 goal win
Barcelona v Espanyol - 1.23 - 7pm - have won all matches at home.Only 3 draws away from home, and coming off the back of a 2-1 away victory v Kiev ( after being a goal down), Barca are in fine fettle.Soccerstats relates that Barca have scored first in 92% of their games, which is great news for the trader. Only 2 matches have featured less than 2 goals at home, that was Real Madrid and Almeria with 2 1-0 wins, so goals look a decent call. Espanyol are in shocking form having lost their last 4 games, and losing 4-0 on 2 separate occasions. If they concede goals against Racing and Athletico, then surely Ibra and co can punish defensive lapses at home?
Lost 3-0 at Real Madrid which can give you a guide to likely scorelines. A slight note of caution though regarding 0-0 at Sevilla ( reknowned goalscorers) and 3-2 win away to Deportivo - 4th and 5th in the league.
Messi went off injured mid week and the maestro won the match mid week. I would need to see him start to consider a straight back of Barcelona.
Standard v Roeselare - 1.27 home - 7pm - away side have conceded 13 in their 4 away games against top 7 sides - were beaten at home 5-1 by Standard but concern is that Standard have drawn 5 at home, BUT the head to head is compelling.
Olhanense v Benfica - 1.43 away - 915pm - have only lost once and that was against 2nd side Braga, Benfica have won 4 and drawn one away, and home side is 2nd from bottom ( and Benfica have scored 13 goals ,albeit at home, against bottom and 3rd from bottom)
1200 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Our Nana Rose, 7/2 Beat The Boss, 6/1 Gracchus, 7/1 Solar Graphite, 8/1 Bay Of Kotor, Charger, La Tizona, Libanza, Ptolemaeus, 10/1 Redera, Strain Of Fame, 12/1 Moving Statue, 14/1 Gan Airgid Easca, 16/1 Asiya, 20/1 Blue Belle Polka, Firm Foundations, Katys Girl, Musical Dancer, Well Written.
Price gapper here but a maiden hurdle in heavy - now odds on on the live market 1.28 to place
1230 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Possol, 5/1 Truckers Hall, 13/2 Nodforms Violet, Tribe, 12/1 Maska Pony, Simply Strong, 20/1 Woodmore, 50/1 Sleep Talk, 66/1 True Illusion, 200/1 Give A Lot.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Useful chaser POSSOL, protecting his mark over fences with a view to a possible National tilt, has trip and ground to suit and can defy his penalty after a ready Ascot novice hurdle success. |
Possol is a good price gapper here with no real ground concerns 1.14 to place
1240 STHL
| DIOMED VERDICT: Question marks over the majority but things look in place for a big run from JONNIE SKULL, who showed a gritty attitude to win over 7f here last time and the return to this trip should suit. |
a class 6 seller here and only 3 of the 8 are single figure odds - the ones to focus on? 1.23 , 1.29 , and 1.4 for the front 3 to place
145 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Lava Steps, 3/1 In Secret, Too Tall, 7/2 Sure Fire, 100/1 Aquapark, Frankie Falco,
| DIOMED VERDICT: LAVA STEPS showed more than enough over C&D last time to suggest he's the one to be on this time. |
Field reduced to 5 runners, 2 of whom will place and 2 very clear outsiders reducing this to a 3 horse race for 2 places 1.21 lava steps, 1.44 In secret and 1.92 Sure fire to place. A nose 2nd of 11 for Lava steps last time augurs well for this horse being in the mix at the business end of the race. Remember, 2 horses are 100/1 or bigger and this represents the best probability race of the day
150 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tell Massini, 3/1 The Minack, 6/1 Lord Generous, 10/1 Bygones Of Brid, 12/1 Billie Magern, 20/1 John´s Gift, Mon Mome, 40/1 Kennel Hill.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The Minack is a well-bred Nicholls-trained youngster who won well on his hurdles debut but ready preference still has to be for TELL MASSINI, whose form is stacking up well after being boosted again yesterday and who sets a clear, useful standardon last month's Grade 2 win here. |
The straight 8 runners here means 3 places and the fav is holding up well 1.16 to place
305 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Celestial Halo, 3/1 Punjabi, 8/1 Medermit, 12/1 Khyber Kim, 20/1 Ashkazar, 40/1 Ebadiyan, 66/1 Songe.
| DIOMED VERDICT: With a likely fitness advantage and with his reappearance win suggesting that he might very well have improved since last season, CELESTIAL HALO is readily preferred to his narrow Champion Hurdle conqueror Punjabi. |
Only 7 runners but should concern just 4, and Celestial Halo must go close , always with the proviso of a clear round of course 1.27 to place
340 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Zaynar, 9/2 Shalone, 8/1 Cape Tribulation, 12/1 Golan Way, 14/1 Secret Dancer, 50/1 Night Orbit.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ZAYNAR is very hard to oppose, having stepped up on his Triumph Hurdle-winning form when impressing on last month's reappearance at Ascot. This is an easier race than at Ascot and a similar display should see him make it five from five over hurdles with something to spare. Shalone can chase him home. |
Winning runs always come to an end, and this applies to first and 2nd favourites, but if that winning run comes to an end ,will Zaynar still place? Fits into y hard to beat system " very hard to oppose" 1.11 to place and the only horse in the place market under 2.4 in odds - the market certainly likes Zaynar's place chances
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tejime, 11/4 Passkey, 9/2 Watch Amigo, 10/1 Luckydolly, 12/1 Midnight Strider, 16/1 Bravalto, 33/1 Hold The Star, Silca Meydan, 50/1 Espresso Steps, Nanny Doe.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TEJIME looks a likely improver and if he goes forward at all he will be hard to beat. |
Another " hard to beat" horse in Tejime, albeit only the one run in maiden company so connections are hoping for a repeat performance 1.2 to place
SHORTLIST
A typical Saturday offers many opportunities
FOOTBALL
Bayern Munich away to Bochum will be shortlisted after their superb midweek performance against Juventus. Bochum have lost to the top sides when they have visited .
Chelsea should maintain their unbeaten home record , but the question is " how buoyed with Everton be with their comeback against Spurs?"
Rangers - impressive enough mid week and facing a St Johnstone team who have lost easily to 2 of the big 3. Celtic beat them 3-0 which is always a guide to the ideal scoreline for Rangers
Tottenham v Wolves - this looks standout with the attacking prowess of Spurs - their 5 goals against Barnsley and recent mauling of Wigan , and away form against 5 of the bottom 6 teams (3 wins and 2 2-2 draws) augurs well today.
They are coming off t back of 2 draws ( both away) so are ideally placed to break this sequence with a win.
Barcelona look good tonight against a stuttering Espanyol who conceded 8 in their last 2 matches, most gauling the 4 conceded at home. If lower ranked teams can inflict this damage, then Barca are even better equipped.
Benfica away to Olhanense - Benfica have turned a corner this year, and against 2 teams straddling Olhanense in the league, they scored 13 goals ( albeit at home)
HORSE RACING
1230 DONCASTER - Possol looks well and 2 recent wins over hurdles and chase fences should hold him in good stead. Only 4 horses under 25/1 offer a good chance for Possol to place
145 Southwell - the best probability race of the day. 5 runners, 2 clear outsiders and 2 places for 3 horses. I would default to Lava Steps here as the current favourite, a nose 2nd last time out, to NOT get beaten by one other horse in a perceived 3 horse race
150 CHELTENHAM - of interest as the straight 8 runners means 3 places and Tell Massini looks a worthy favourite
305 CHELTENHAM - Celestial Halo has never been out of the first 2 in his last 5 races, all ridden by Ruby, and is a stong 8/13 favourite. NEGATIVES - only 2 places and Mederit and Khyber Kim look the only dangers apart from the obvious Punjabi.
340 CHELTENHAM - Zaynar is " very hard to oppose" -reflected alas in the 1.11 to place
ONE A DAY
Strong candidates in both fields today. The advantage of football over jumps racing is we don't have the spectre of a fall and we do have better odds generally.
My shortlist of the shortlist will include
- Rangers at home to St Johnstone - I just feel that Rangers have the edge at present -they beat St Johnstone away 2-1 and there is a slight concern that Rangers concede at home all too often.Have scored 2 in 5 of their 7 games at home, winning those 5
- Spurs should really have much too much for newly promoted Wolves shouldn't they? The attacking options feature 3 England players
- Barcelona have had a busy schedule but they meet Espanyol at just the right time -8 goals conceded in their last 2 games
- 145 SOUTHWELL - mentioned because probability wise, this concerns 3 horses vying for 2 places and we have a greater chance of our horse placing than not.It would be just bad luck if the choice did not finish 1st or 2nd in a race where 2 are 100/1 or bigger
- 150 CHELTENHAM - the straight 8 help Tell MAssini
- 305 CHELTEHAM - Celestial Halo ultra consistent placed horse and a clear round should suffice - only 2 places though
At the prices then the ONE A DAY TODAY has to be Spurs, with an option to lay off your stake if they score first as it is hoped they do.
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