What a disappointment ,the only one from the shortlist to not come in - Rockys Pride, Man utd ( win and over 1.5 goals), Rangers win(and over 1.5 goals) and I go and choose a horse in a seller on the all weather!! Obe Gold was a very significant market mover in that race too, into 9/4 favouratism but I was unable to recount this information .
I hope you can see that a bet only loses because it is a bad decision on my part selecting the correct one a day from the "shortlist of the shortlist" Rangers scored 7, Man Utd scored 5, and Rockys PRide won , yet I chose, inexplicably, a horse who had not won since 2006, in a seller on the all weather!!
A very difficult day today with heavy ground at Tramore, a poor quality Lingfield card, and some potential at Punchestown but 2 selections of interest coming back from very long layoffs.
200 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ghufa, 4/1 Shannersburg, 7/1 Acropolis, King´s Majesty, 10/1 Blushing Soul, Fantasy Ride, Playful Asset, 14/1 Midnight Bay, 16/1 Carr Hall, 33/1 Blakeneys Pet, Bollywood, Bright Wire, Mid Valley, 66/1 Maverick´s Magic.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GHUFA (nap) is a regular winner in this type of event and is taken to beat Shannersburg. |
Typical of today, a class 6 seller and we saw that these horses are simply untrustworthy.
A price gapper and on a hatrick. 1.38 Ghufa to place
215 PUNCHESTOWNS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Beroni, 3/1 Farringdon, 9/2 Bahrain Storm, 5/1 Slievecorragh, 7/1 Dirar, 8/1 Rahan De Marcigny, 10/1 Art Sleuth.
Interesting race this one. Why is Ruby Walsh ( Mullins top jockey) NOT on the odds on Mullins horse Beroni, but on Farringdon?
Is this a tip for Farringdon perhaps?
The betting forecast bears no resemblance at all to the live betting market at time of writing - the live market sees only 2 under 10/1 1.31 Beroni and 1.71 Farringdon to place - only 2 places as this is a sub 8 runner race.
220 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Miss Overdrive, 7/4 Silver Kate, 8/1 Gentle Caribou, 9/1 Gilwen Glory, Raise You Five, 12/1 Queen Poline, 25/1 Jenny´s Gold, 28/1 Evella, 33/1 Jordan, 40/1 Saulty Max, 66/1 Bobbisox, 100/1 Byzantina Fair, Secret Gift, Silver Phoenix.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks to be between MISS OVERDRIVE (nap) and Silver Kate. The last-named won in great style at Chepstow last time but ready preference is for Miss Overdrive in receipt of so much weight. My over cautious attitude yesterday meant I swerved races like this where 2 market leaders dominated -yesterday all of the races of this type saw the 2 market leaders place Here we see a race dominated by Miss Overdrive ( Thornton/King) and Silver kate. Only 4 horses in the live market are under 20/1 - the ones to concentrate on? 5 horses are 50/1 or over and can hopefully be discounted - leaving 6 fighting for 3 places ( or should that be just the 4 under 20/1 fighting for 3 places?) A penalty did not stop tito Bustillo yesterday and it is Silver kate who carries the penalties today ( on a hatrick today) 1.22 Miss Overdrive to place 1.3 Silver Kate to place Interestingly there are only 4 horses under 6.8 in the TO PLACE market, indicating that the 4 under 20/1 in the win market are the only considerations at time of writing. 345 PUNCHESTOWN BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Araucaria, 3/1 Perfectly Composed, 7/2 Lonesome Dove, 8/1 My Cool Lady, 10/1 Spare Shilling, 14/1 Haste Ye Bach, 16/1 Geneva Silver, Killegney, 25/1 Some Gem, 33/1 Miss Franklin. Only 3 horses are under 10/1 and only 5 under 20/1 - the ones to focus on? Another bumper so market consultation required ideally 1.23 Araucaria to place SHORTLIST As already mentioned, a difficult day today with heavy ground at Tramore, threatening Heavy at Punchestown, and soft at Warwick. Lingfield's card sees all bar one race at class 6 - poor quality fare. New Years day tomorrow will see a wealth of opportunities and a chance to pick something more solid than what is on offer today. From today's races above, here are my shortlisters 215 PUNCHESTOWN Beroni and Farringdon are the only 2 horses under 10/1 in the live betting in this handicap hurdle. What puzzles me is why Ruby Walsh is not on odds on Beroni, as he is stable jockey for Willie Mullins. Ruby is on Farringdon. NEGATIVES - only 2 places and handicap hurdles in Ireland tend to be a lot more open. If getting involved in this race, we must presume Beroni and Farringdon will both place - why? Well there's only 2 places. The Ruby conundrum!!! Why is he not on Beroni? Is he doing the trainer of Farringdon a personal favour? Does this indicate Ruby's thoughts on the merits of Farringdon v Beroni? Surely Ruby has first choice on Mullins horses in Ireland? 220 WARWICK Can we trust the live betting market which tells us this race should revolve around the 4 horses under 20/1 Miss Overdrive 11/8 Silver Kate 13/8 Gentle Karibou 5/1 Queen Poline 10/1 A nose 2nd in a class 3 2 mile 5 novice hurdle last time (this is class 4) augurs well for Miss Overdrive in receipt of weight from Silver Kate Heavy ground now at both venues in Ireland means preference makes the 215 Punchestown more dificult This leaves as default the 220 at Warwick. With only 2 races of interest, it means the pool to chose from is smaller. Miss Overdrive looks a good place contender but , as ever, we face the spectre of a fall scuppering the bet, and I dont want to potential of 2 losing days on he trot. The pool of bets to chose from tomorrow will be far greater, allowing a far better opportunity to get a rock solid bet, and begin a long winning run in 2010 |
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