Thursday 10 December 2009

10/12

No probs with Lyon yesterday, 20th minute first goal reduced the price to 1.08 to lay, and if you held out for halftime, the 2nd goal came.
Enhanced bet? Barca went 1-0 down and equalised again ( went on to win with a Messi masterclass) - Chelsea went a goal down too and, yes, equalised and went on to a 2-1 lead - trading again would have saved any Chelsea backers with a very late equaliser.

100 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Miss Sarenne, 7/4 Calusa Crystal, 4/1 Izita Star, 14/1 Maggie Mathias.

DIOMED VERDICT: Calusa Crystal has no Riverside Theatre or Crack Away Jack to worry about this time but in MISS SARENNE she may again find the one too good.

A 3 horse race this one and if we take the front 2 as dominating, we can take a chance with laying Izita star at around 6.6 , the sae as a 1.17 bet, but 3 horses means tactical affair

110 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Acordeon, 9/2 Sambulando, 8/1 Beherayn, Petrosian, 9/1 Hide The Evidence, 10/1 West With The Wind, 11/1 Viable, 16/1 Alesandro Mantegna, 100/1 Vogarth.

DIOMED VERDICT: ACORDEON can add to his trainer's rich vein of form.

Price gapper here now odds on - another smart hurdler debuting as a chaser - no market moves amongst the others - Geraghty and Henderson a good combo 1.26 to place

120 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Valentine Vic, 3/1 Triggerman, 4/1 Jau, 11/2 Russian Song, 8/1 Little George, 20/1 Upham Atom, 33/1 Bell Hill Lad, 50/1 Insured, 100/1 Sweet Request.

DIOMED VERDICT: TRIGGERMAN showed plenty of determination to strike recently and can follow up.

Interesting race with 3 of the 9 at 40/1 or bigger ( can hopefully be dismissed) and one at 16/1, reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 to place. Nicholls/Walsh head the market - soft ground a concern 1.3 to place for Walsh/Nicholls Valentine Vic

135 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Cadspeed, 7/2 Kilflora, 11/2 Mary´s Little Vic, 8/1 Mr Clyde, 12/1 Cheer Up, 14/1 Man Of Principles, 16/1 Aventinos, Leos Joy, 20/1 Killogan Lass, Mick The Tooth, 33/1 Lady Laragh.




PRice gapper for Mullins , previous 2nd in heavy in a big field under Ruby reads well for handling heavy today at Fairyhouse 1.13 to place

150 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Recif De Thaix, 3/1 Chariot Charger, 7/2 Cracboumwiz, 5/1 Pocket Aces, 10/1 Warne´s Way, 33/1 Coup De Tabac, 50/1 Procas De Thaix, 100/1 Sally Army.

DIOMED VERDICT: RECIF DE THAIX was quite impressive on softer ground at Hereford last week and can go in again.

8 runners here, 3 at 66/1 or bigger , Recif is odds on and Chariot charger 9/4 the 2 who dominate.Warne's way is 16/1 and can hopefully be discounted, reducing the field to the top 4, 3 of whom will place 1.18 for Recif de Thaix and 1.27 Chariot charger to place

220 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 The Betchworth Kid, 13/8 Tito Bustillo, 7/1 Present To You, 14/1 Art Deco, Cappagh, 20/1 Dean´s Grange, I´m In The Pink, Regain Du Charbonneau, 66/1 Kaycee, 100/1 Colonna Lecca, Flying Squad, Mrs Overall, 200/1 Galloise, The Brimmer.

DIOMED VERDICT: This is likely to concern the two penalised runners, with preference for THE BETCHWORTH KID.

2 of the best jumps jockeys on the 2 market leaders who should dominate this big field if making no mistakes 1.22 and 1.25 the front 2 to place

340 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ceilidh Royal, 5/1 Deejan, Present Your Case, 13/2 Black Annie, 7/1 Ease And Grace, 10/1 Definitley Lovely, Welcome Wonder, 20/1 Aega, Jo Joe´s Lot, Mist Chances, 66/1 My Viking Bay, Roof Top Tango, Sun Up.

DIOMED VERDICT: All eyes on Barbers Shop's half-sister CEILIDH ROYAL, who is taken to make a winning debut.

Very much a talking horse this fav and favourite based on the reputation Diomed tells you about - Henderson/Geraghty again - as ever the market is key in all bumpers 1.29 to place

600 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fathsta, 9/2 Bahamian Lad, 6/1 Ray Of Joy, 13/2 Little Pete, 8/1 Bertoliver, 10/1 Dvinsky, 16/1 Methaaly, Pearly Wey, 20/1 Fishforcompliments, Mogok Ruby.

DIOMED VERDICT: FATHSTA was unlucky here last week and is worth another chance.

Price gapper here after solid recent 2nd but class 4 handicap is competitive 1.19 to place

FOOTBALL
Lille v Toulouse - 1.61 - confidence boosting battling win against Lyon (4-3 scoreline) should help Lille here.Lille have scored 4 goals twice in a row at home, prior to that they scored 2 - strong form too beating Lyon and Bordeaux in recent weeks. Only lost one at home ( 1st gae of the season)
Toulouse are a tight outfit away from home, 3 1-0 losses, one 2-1 loss , anad 3 draws attest to this.
RUGBY
Newcastle v Montauban - 1.09 - egg chasing is not my strong point - just going by the odds
SHORTLIST
110 LUDLOW - Acordeon is certainly very much fancied in the live market - not run since 15th May and a debut to chasing are the obvious concerns. 1.26 to place - great jockey/trainer combination but we always take a chance with debutants over the bigger obstacles in softer ground
150 TAUNTON - I like this race because the straight 8 means 3 places , 3 are 40/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place.
Concern is a top heavy market , Recif de Thaix has Ruby onboard and is odds on fav, so the hope is he does not fall and does not get beaten by 5 others in an 8 runner race - 1.18 to place
340 LUDLOW - another bumper where the market nearer the off will reveal all, but at present an eyecatching price gap evens - - - - 7/1 for Ceilidh Royal - a chance because he's a debutant and this is based on reputation and pedigree rather than form in the book 1.29 to place

ONE A DAY
Looks like we are left with jumps races and we have the added obstacles of, erm, obstacles.This is why I would default to football but nothing strong today. The 110 Ludlow would look good were it not for the absence and chase fences which are the bigger obstacles
This leaves Recif de Thaix and Celidh Royal to chose from, and I would plump for Recif de Thaix I think ,simply because the 340 Ludlow's race revolves around the live market as it is a bumper
So it's the 150 Taunton for me, where we have the straight 8 runners, and 3 clear outsiders. Of the remainder Recif is odds on fav and would only seem to have 2 to beat to place , and ,as ever, he has a clear round of jumping ( remember Anak 2 days ago, 1/6 shot under the Champion Jockey and falls!!)

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