Analysis and Comment
There are plentiful opportunities today in horse racing and football but I am taken by the 4 goals scored in each of last 4 Lille matches and home advantage and need to win and 5-1 scoreline last time they met.
I hope this isn't another Spurs moment where I simply make the wrong decision but this does look solid today and everything should be in place, provided there is a strong Lille side picked ( and why not?)
I did 2+ hours of analysis yesterday which could have resulted in a better priced placed horse but it all disappeared with a click of a mouse alas. Oscar Whisky won by 7 lengths
105 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 For Bill, 7/2 Prairie Call, 8/1 Lady Roberta, 10/1 Haste Ye Bach, Lady Grouse, 12/1 Fruitful Venture, Jackie Browne, 14/1 Minstrel Girl, 16/1 Chloe´s Girl, 25/1 Grace Agus Roisin, 33/1 Time To Present, 50/1 Clash Artist, Queen Of Hardship.
As you saw with Morning Supreme ( won by 21 lengths ) and Oscar Whisky ( won by 7 lengths) when the betting forecast price shortens considerably in the live market, this is a strong signal, and For Bill is currently 1/3, albeit with only one bookmaker as I have to write this earlier than usual.
1.1 to place - the market certainly likes For Bill
A maiden hurdle ,this horse has an impressive list of 1's in the form column - BUT these have been in national hunt flat races and not over obstacles
110 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 The Snail, 9/2 Flemish Invader, 6/1 Ballabrook, 13/2 Cadoudalas, 8/1 Benmore Boy, 10/1 Award Winner, Passato.
| DIOMED VERDICT: An interesting little handicap and a chance is taken on Richard Lee's new recruit CADOUDALAS. |
Winning sequences always end especially in handicaps. The snail is on a 4 timer and Ballabrook on a hatrick. The snail is evens and next best in the current betting is 6/1 which is a fair indication that the market thinks The Snail has another win in him.
Negatives? Handicap chase - bigger obstacles - only 2 places - and outsider at only 14/1 indicates a tight little handicap chase 1.44 to place and only 2 places
130 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Etruscan, 9/4 Outrageous Request, 4/1 All Guns Firing, 8/1 Abayaan, 16/1 Bicksta, 33/1 Hydrant, Sir Mark, 50/1 La Preciosa, 100/1 Owls FC.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ETRUSCAN comes from a stable going well and looks a marginally safer option than Outrageous Request. |
An interesting race this one.8 runners now, 2 are 66/1 and one is 33/1 leaving 5 who should be in winning contention.
Of those 5 there are only 3 under 10/1 ( Outrageous , Etruscan, Abayaan - the latter the best backed this early on)
NEGATIVES - All of the horses are all weather debutants and it is difficult to predict if the horses will take such a dislike to the surface that all turf form is thrown out the window!
Good probability race though, all things being equal and the odds being a good indicator of the horses' chances The place market, at time of writing is illiquid. MArket forces have not set in yet.
Outrageous request - 1.19 to back to place, but 1.32 on the lay side tells you this is some chancer layer putting up the lowest odds he can get away with
Etruscan -1.3 to place
Abayaan 1.46 to place.
The hope is this will revolve around these 3 but the fact they have not run on the surface is very offputting
140 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Russian Flag, 6/1 Markila, Muhtenbar, Tyup Pompey, 8/1 Campanile, Coach Lane, 12/1 Noble Crusader, 20/1 Pret A Thou.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MARKILA tackles handicap company for the first time as a chaser and improvement is anticipated. |
Price gapper in the betting forecast but Markila now 4/1 in the live market and Russian Flag now 2/1 , 9/4 in places
Interesting that it is 8 runners and thus 3 places but another handicap chase and outsider at only 12/1 tells you it's tight 1.52 Russian Flag to place
200 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Inside Track, 3/1 Admiral Breese, 6/1 City Gossip, 14/1 Tenga Venga.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ADMIRAL BREESE may have more to come and is narrowly preferred to Inside Track. |
4 horses and 2 places so a simple 50/50 race . Inside Track and Admiral Breese the 2 to focus on?
A class 6 maiden is perhaps not the ideal race to get involved in, but given the race profile it might be good for place only betting
1.23 Inside track to place and 1.62 Admiral Breese to place
Do we take our cues from the live betting market? Inside track clearly favoured to place in the first 2
205 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Apt Approach, 5/1 Taradoun, 6/1 In The Haven, 14/1 Rebel Royal, Victram, Yashgan Prince, 20/1 Another Marignan, Hu Ha Jo, Torremuelle, 25/1 No Reception, 33/1 Courella, Out On Top, 50/1 Old Shyan, Tango Island.
One of the big boys is out today, in Apt Approach - a horse who has plied his trade at the big meetings.
Caution advised regarding his chase jumping as his last race will explain
"Another strong looking beginners chase which changed complexion completely at the final fence. Favourite and chasing debutant Apt Approach set off in front. He was athletic and long at some of his fences, put the brakes on at one of them and was sticky at others. It was a real mixed bag but he was travelling in front when making a real hash of the final fence and presenting the race to SWIFT COUNSEL. In the end he did quite well to pick up again on the run-in and get back up for second place."
So he was "long" at some fences, " put the brakes on" at one of them and " sticky at others" and you want me to back him at 1/3 now?
As I've said before, when the betting forecast price is battered in, it's generally a good sign. 10/11 betting forecast now shows 1/3 in places for Apt Approach. Ruby Walsh rides for Willie Mullins and it's quite simply a case of good jumping equalling a place. As you read above, the warning signs are there that a fall is a small mistake away 1.1 to place for a sketchy jumper is only for those without a heart condition
220 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sagalyrique, 6/1 Pavillon Bleu, 7/1 Foxesbow, 10/1 Jayne´s Crusader, 12/1 Crank Hill, Pistol Desbois, 14/1 Ammunition, 16/1 Darn Hot, Josear, Triple Bluff, 20/1 Bushwacker, 33/1 Nougat De L´Isle, 50/1 Pur De Sivola.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to oppose SAGALYRIQUE, who scored a comfortable win last week. |
"hard to oppose" and a good winner last time, albeit is a class lower . Price gapper here and currently 13/8 with Pavillon Bleu and Foxesbow breathing down his neck in the live market
thornton/King a good partnership for Sagalyrique and apparently still well in under a penalty. 1.42 to place
230 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mcconnell, 9/2 Swiss Art, 8/1 Dr Jameson, 12/1 Golden Penny, Transmission, 14/1 Ten Pole Tudor, 16/1 Brer Rabbit, Herbert Crescent, 33/1 Martha´s Girl, Princess Zhukova.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This represents an easier assignment for McCONNELL and he ought to be well up to the task. |
Price gap in the live market shows evens - - - 7/1 for Mcconnell. The market expects ,but this is a claimer where surprises can occur. 1.16 to place
235 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Kempes, 7/2 Caim Hill, 6/1 Rocco´s Hall, 8/1 Fier Destrier, 10/1 Tinakellylad, 12/1 Indifference Curve, 14/1 Bar The Rest, Killowenabbey, 16/1 By The Hour, 20/1 Mr Duffy, Undergraduate, 25/1 Glebe Court Lady, 33/1 Knockahopple, 50/1 Cock Grouse, 66/1 Delgany Blaze, Rashella Lady.
Another big name recruit from hurdling for his chasing bow, ground a concern but a winner in heavy - bigger fences here but Walsh/Mullins merit great respect 1.22 to place
250 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Cornas, 9/4 Pasco, 6/1 Or Bleu, 25/1 Procas De Thaix, 33/1 Master Cobbler.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CORNAS can make the most of the weight received from Pasco. |
Intriguing from a place backer's perspective - a clear 3 horse race ( with 2 places to fight for) barring falls or accidents of course, but which one of the 3 principles will falter? Or Bleu is the one the market tells you is the weakest
Mccoy takes the ride for Nicholls on Pasco
1.2 Cornas to place
1.28 PAsco to place
310 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Topsham Belle, 7/2 Banjaxed Girl, 13/2 Willow Wren, 11/1 Here´s The Key, Just For Jean, 28/1 Saulty Max, 33/1 Byzantina Fair, 50/1 Saddlewood, Tasty Tarn, 100/1 Welsh Jaunt.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TOPSHAM BELLE, whose trainer has a good strike-rate here and has won two of the last three renewals of this contest, showed more than enough at Warwick to suggest she can win a race of this nature. |
Only 5 under 25/1 in the live betting should be the ones to focus on for place terms. Yesterday's winning connections on the fav again in this race. 1.11 to place
320 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Carole´s Legacy, 7/2 Over Sixty, 5/1 Midnight Queen, Wychwoods Legend, 13/2 Cool Friend, 16/1 Mewstone, 20/1 Me Julie, 50/1 Vic´s World, 66/1 Kentford Mist, 100/1 Blues Baby Daisey.
| DIOMED VERDICT: OVER SIXTY could prove up to the task on her chasing debut. |
Main threat to the fav is a non runner leaving this a race where only 4 are under 25/1 and 3 will place. 1.16 Carole's LEgacy to place
340 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Old McDonald, 4/1 Quickly Origny, 11/2 Harry The Hat, 13/2 Flaming Gorge, Inga Bird, 11/1 M´Lady Eliza, 25/1 Grafite, 66/1 Raydar.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Harry The Hat and Quickly Origny contested useful events last season and may improve but OLD MCDONALD sets the standard on his form in Irish bumpers. |
The straight 8 here and so 3 places. 2 clear outsiders should ensure at least 6 fight it oout for 3 places
Bumpers do require market consideration preferably nearer the off but Old McDonald has good bumper form in Ireland and that could help him place in the first 3 in this race under the excellent Barry Geraghty 1.12 to place
FOOTBALL
6pm - Lille v Slavia Prague -1.26 - this is a Lille side who have scored 4 goals in each of their last 4 league games, and now, according to the Europa League site, here is the situation
"A win at home against eliminated SK Slavia Praha will guarantee LOSC Lille Métropole a place in the UEFA Europa League round of 32, with anything else potentially spelling Group B disaster.
• Level on seven points with Genoa CFC, but with a superior head-to-head record, Lille will qualify provided they do not get a worse result than the Italian side can muster at home against section pacesetters Valencia CF."
That's what I want to see - MOTIVATION!! 5-1 head to heads augurs well for another Lille victory by a decent margin and the 1.26 looks fully justified. Contrast this with Shaktar Donetsk last night who had already qualified and they lose 1-0 - you see how important Motivation is
Dinamo Zagreb v FC Timisoara - 1.36 the home team. Another match where Dinamo have already beaten FC Timisoara at their ground 3-0 . Add to this the fact that, today at home, Dinampo MUST WIN again to at least give themselves a chance of qualification. This hinges on what Ajax Amsterdam do against Anderlecht, but as long as Dinamo do their job, then let what they cannot control happen as it may. In this context then, 1.36 looks a price worth considering for the win.SHORTLIST
105 CLONMEL - For Bill fits into the profile of Oscar Whisky and Morning Supreme ( winners by 7 and 21 lengths respectively) and is 1.1 to place here. This is a maiden hurdle and For Bill has been winning in national hunt flat races. Handles heavy so no ground concerns. It remains to be seen whether you want to back at such a short price BUT this was the same with Oscar Whisky yesterday
200 SOUTHWELL - got your betting heads on and fancy a punt on a 50/50 race? 4 horses and 2 places in this race.
Inside track 8/11
Admiral Breese 5/2
City gossip 6/1
Tenga Venga 14/1
The place only market likes Inside Track and the hope is that the bigger priced horses run to their prices. 1.23 to place
NEGATIVE - fibresand debut and may take an instant dislike to the surface BUT will this lead to him getting beaten by 2 others in a 4 horse race?
230 SOUTHWELL - Mcconnell is the best price gapper of the day but this is a claimer so we will have to have faith that the extreme confidence in the favourite in the betting is justified in the race. 1.16 to placae in these circumstances is very well justified then
250 EXETER - 5 horses - 2 places and 2 clear outsiders at 33/1 or bigger who should ake this a 3 horse race for 2 places.
Cornas 4/5 1.2 to place
Pasco 7/4 1.28 to place
Or Bleu 8/1
The hope here is that Or Bleu will not surprise and this will be between Cornas and Pasco
6pm - Lille v Slavia Prague 1.26 - 16 scored in last 4 matches - MUST WIN tonight ( so UEFA website tells me ) and battered Slavia Prague at their place. This should equal a win this evening - the motivation is there
ONE A DAY
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