FOOTBALL
5pm - Anorthosis v Ermis 1.29
Cypriot league game.
Home team Anorthosis Fam have a home record of 5-1-0 (W-D-L) for their 6 home games this season
Away team Ermis have an away record of 1-2-3 (W-D-L) for their 6 away games this season
0-0 recent head to heads and looks like a league where , because it's so small, all teams can beat opposition on a given day. Prior to that - Anorthosis scored 8 in both games against Ermis.
7pm- Heracles v Go ahead eagles - 1.49
Dutch cup game where 5th in the top flight play 3rd in the 2nd flight.
Cannot really compare them on a level playing field as Heracles play the better sides.
Recent form - Heracles - 4 straight wins - 3 at home fill them with confidence. HAve only lost at home to 3 of the top 4 sides they have played. So, surely 3rd place in the 2nd division should not pose a problem?
Away from home, Go ahead eagles have found it tough against top half teams - drawing 3 and losing 2 - this could hint at a defensive line up.
Last matches for both sides this year so no real excuses not to play full strength sides and if doing so, I suspect Heracles should have too much, having only succumbed to the famous 3 big teams at home in the Dutch Premier League equivalent
HORSE RACING
1230 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Causeway King, 11/4 Barwell Bridge, 5/1 Googoobarabajagal, 11/2 Acquisitive, 8/1 Hector´s House, 10/1 Dreamwalk, 20/1 Order Order, 25/1 Salontyre.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Causeway King and Googoobarabajagal have solid hurdling form but could be vulnerable to newcomer BARWELL BRIDGE, who went close in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot and is reported to have schooled well. |
Interesting live market now showing Barwell Bridge at 7/4, Causeway King at 6/4 and a price gap to the rest at 8/1 bar.
The price move may be a good sign of a good run from Barwell Bridge who is a flat recruit and there could be some stable confidence behind him. Of course, this is all we can go by as we have not seen the horse school at home
Question - why no Choc Thornton for Alan King's horse? This is the only jumps race on the card today - too many mince pies?
1.25 Causeway King and 1.4 Barwell Bridge to place. Obviously Causeway King is the better fancied in the place market. Interestingly ,only these 2 below 2.4 in the place only market .
Established(ish) hurdles form of Causeway King versus the potential of newcomer Barwell Bridge.
Will these 2 dominate the race? For safety sake, do we simply default to Causeway King, the horse with the experience?
105 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 On Borrowed Wings, 100/30 Sleepy Hollow, 13/2 Sweet Shock, 10/1 Cappagh, Future Vision, 12/1 Kensington Oval, Praxiteles, 14/1 Knar Mardy, 20/1 Spent, 33/1 Ba Dreamflight, Books Review, 40/1 Cardinal James, 50/1 Taffy Thomas, 66/1 Amber Ridge, Beat The Rap, 100/1 Magical Island.
| DIOMED VERDICT: On Borrowed Wings sets the standard on his Kempton second but SLEEPY HOLLOW isn't that far behind as things stand and may be open to some further improvement. |
A big field at first glance but then we see only 5 horses under 20/1 in the live market (albeit a bit early still as I write)
On borrowed wings has the consistently placed form , won a 17 runner maiden hurdle in Ireland and 2nd in a novices hurdle most recently
Watch out for Praxiteles - a newcomer and the hint of some each way support.
This race is only over 2 miles which doesn't bother me too much regarding the field size. On borrowed wings was decent enough in his bumpers to suggest that he has flat speed. 1.28 to place On Borrowed Wings. Only 3 places in this 16 runner field.
6 horses are 50/1 or bigger in this race reducing the competitive field to 10. Still Praxiteles is the one they want here, now 4/1 in places.
If the market is accurate, this race should only involve those under 20/1
On borrowed wings 13/8
Sleepy Hollow 5/2
Praxiteles 4/1
Sweet shock 7/1
135 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Zanzibar Boy, 9/4 Quattrocento, 6/1 Diablo, 8/1 Supreme Keano, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Herecomestanley.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Quattrocento, improved for a wind op and cheekpieces, sets the standard on his Doncaster second, but ZANZIBAR BOY clearly goes well fresh and is capable of defying this mark. |
Tony McCoy is the winningmost jockey at Ffos Las thus far, so take note of Zanzibar Boy - a favourite, with McCoy on board. Must have an excellent chance then of being at the business end?
NEGATIVES - only 2 places here and a long absence to overcome. Tight old handicap market too and chase fences to jump over.
A massive 1.68 to place this Zanzibar Boy relates to you some of the negatives spoken about above. Could look a massive price at around 1 45pm! The price, for me though, throws up ore doubts.
305 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sircozy, 8/1 Quinsman, 10/1 Broughtons Paradis, Fleur De´Lion, Taste The Wine, 12/1 Squad, 14/1 Choral Festival, 20/1 December, 33/1 Mallorey.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to get away from SIRCOZY whose late-running style is going to help keep him ahead of the handicapper. |
A multiple handicap winner conundrum - has won his last 3 in handicaps - 2 class 5 and a class 6 - latest apprentice ridden - the good news is the jockey William Carson , is the same jockey as for all his wins. Knows the horse, knows the best way to ride the horse, and obviously knows how to win with the horse - key factors.
Of course, though, multiple handicap winner's wins will end - the question is ,when? And if it ends today, will it be a spectacular end or will the horse still place?
Well, the fact Sircozy is odds on suggests the market believes he has at least one last hurrah!
8 runners now and 3 places - the price gap is shortened by Quinsman now at 9/2
From last race
"he is in at Kempton on Monday where he will not be penalised for this win in an apprentice race. He has good prospects of completing the hat-trick, with a truly run race likely to help his cause."
2 clear outsiders at 20/1 and 33/1 can hopefully be discounted reducing the field to 6, 3 of who will place.
Sircozy reacquaints himself with 2nd and 3rd in the market who he beat recently. Sircozy has to be held up it seems, and this would be a possible weakness if not getting clear passage.
But as things stand, the question is, will he get beaten by 3 other horses in this race?
1.18 to place - the market expects again.
405 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Seek The Fair Land, 9/2 Laurie Grove, 11/2 Autumn Blades, 10/1 L´Hirondelle, 12/1 Carnivore, 16/1 Toto Skyllachy, 25/1 Baunagain, 33/1 Durgan.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SEEK THE FAIR LAND stormed clear over C&D last time, has leading claims in a bid to defy a penalty and can complete a hat-trick. |
That William Carson has found himself on another winning handicap horse in Seek the Fair Land.Under Carson, has won his last 2 11 runner races, most recently at Kempton ( the concern with Sircozy is a change of venue today)
Another price gapper, and under a penalty, only has 5 to beat to place, 2 of which are clear outsiders - money for L'Hirondelle today it would see 1.15 to place Seek the fair land
DARTS
710pm - Van De Voort to beat Duo 1.17 - I haven't got a clue about their respective form ,and am just goiby odds in a day where there are few clear cut solid one a dayers
SHORTLIST
7pm Heracles, if fielding a full strength side ( and why not given they have a long break and no more matches this year) should have too much for Go Ahead eagles in this Dutch Cup match. Only beaten at home by top 3 famous Dutch sides.
Betting blind really if getting involved as it is difficult to track down team news, weather conditions ( remember all of yesterday's Dutch matches were postponed)
1230 FFOS LAS
The complexion of the live betting market is in marked contrast to the betting forecast . Causeway King and Barwell Bridge now dominate. The place only market clearly prefers Causeway King to place but Barwell Bridge could be anything and do we take the hint re the near shared favouratism of the newcomer?
305 KEMPTON
These races become so much harder to read the longer the winning sequence. I mentioned Sircozy last time in a message and he won. On a 4 timer now, and winning sequences end, but unpenalised for apprentice ridden win last time, and has the jockey onboard who has won all 3 with him. Odds on in the win market and rock solid 1.18 in the place only market, the market certainly expects. My job is the decide whether this is a race too far, and if it is, whether Sircozy will still place in the first 3?
405 KEMPTON
Like the race above, a multiple handicap winner Seek the Fair Land on a hatrick this time, and coincidentally under the same jockey. Exactly the same price , 4/5 and next best is 6/1 , 1.15 to place shows extreme confidence as the rest of the field is evens or over.
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