11/12

The only Walsh /Nicholls horse not to win because he fell at the very last fence with the race at his mercy - that's why I've been avoiding the jumps racing. 5 or 6 of the losers last year were losers because they were fallers - it is a costly thing to weigh up whenever chosing a jumps horse to place.
Ajax v NEC - 1.19 - have been beating teams at NEC's part of the table comfortably

Kaiserslautern v Koblenz - 1.37 - Top v 16th out of 18 in German 2nd tier. - won their last 5, but 3 of those were 1-0's so just scraping the win on occasion.
Have only lost one at home to 4th in league. Concern is away from home Kaiserslautern against the bottom 4 have won 1-0 3 times and drawn 1-1. Yes this is their away form ( and they're playing home tonight), but this ties in with the 3 recent 1-0's in their last 5 wins which makes 1.37 a tad short.
Oppenents spanked 5-1 at home against 2nd in the league augurs well for top side Kaiserslautern - Koblenz, however, away from home have lost 1-0 and drawn 1-1 against 4th and 5th away from home.
Tricky to weigh up - a lot of 1-0's occuring between the sides and a prevalence of 2-1 away losses for away side make this a potential tight game unless Koblenz's recent 5-1 mauling at home is a sign that they may struggle against top sides - IN RUNNING
RED BULL v Austria Kartnen - 1.15 - 2nd in league against 10th (out of 10) - with the jumps playing havoc yesterday I do like to prefer the football at this time of month
Unbeaten at home and last time they played Austria Kartnen at home they won 7-1 - 2 recent 0-0's in last 2 matches for Red Bull came against 1st and 3rd and this is a sequence that could be broken tonight - NOT IN RUNNING
Excelsior v Emmen - 1.37 - solid at home only losing once 1-0. 2 goals or more by home team have been scored in all bar 2 gamesat home.Emmen 2nd bottom and previous head to head was 4-2 loss at Emmen which may lead towards a goals bet here - only 2.5 goal market on Betfair - NOT IN RUNNING
HEINEKEN CUP
Munster v Perpignan 1.25 - at home and should make that home advantage count but I am not an expert in rugby but live down the road from Limerick and have followed Munster by default

115 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Garde Champetre, 6/1 Maljimar, 15/2 Royal County Star, 8/1 Heads Onthe Ground, 17/2 Sizing Australia, 10/1 Pak Jack, 12/1 Silver Birch, 14/1 King Harald, 16/1 A New Story, Double Dizzy, Freneys Well, Mr Big, 25/1 Cornish Sett, 33/1 Rimsky, 50/1 Osolomio, Soleil Fix.

DIOMED VERDICT: GARDE CHAMPETRE is extremely hard to beat here, as four course wins - including in this last year - show. He will need to step up on last month's non-handicap winning form here but, on the other hand, a reproduction of the form he showed when winningoff only 6lb lower at the festival in March may very well be good enough. At likely bigger odds, King Harald is an each-way alternative.

Again we face the spectre of a possible fall, but Garde Champetre, Heads on the ground and Enda Bolger should dominate.
1.44 anad 1.91 the 2 mentioned to place ( 4 places)
Jockeys have been swapped for some strange reason - would prefer Nina on Garde

325 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Shadows Lengthen, 9/2 Astrolibra, 10/1 Nyetimber, Stormy Summer, 16/1 Dado Mush, 50/1 Daltaban.

DIOMED VERDICT: SHADOWS LENGTHEN is thriving at present and can complete his five-timer at the main expense of Astrolibra.

Price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap but I'm painfully aware that horses on a 5 timer will eventually lose, and usually bomb out. BUT why is he priced at 2/5 with next best 7/1? - only 2 places 1.12 to place

330 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Bold Banks, 9/2 Knight Realm, 6/1 Emily Pankhurst, 14/1 Reality Dose, 16/1 Michelle´s Express, 20/1 According To Them, 25/1 Waltzing Tornado, 33/1 Benefit Scheme, 50/1 Bobby´s Bird, Dandys Hill.

Based solely on the connections as not run yet.

335 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ghizao, 9/4 General Miller, 5/2 Lidar, 8/1 Cootehill, 25/1 Imperial Shabra, Miller´s Dawn, 50/1 Hideaway, 66/1 Nishnash, 200/1 Autumm Spirit.

DIOMED VERDICT: A race not to miss with three potentially top-drawer recruits to hurdling. GHIZAO is taken to confirm bumper superiority over Lidar and outgun General Miller.

4 against the field here anad faith in odds on fav Ghizao for Walsh/Nucholls ( please don't fecking fall at the last AGAIN!!) 1.13 to place

750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Mister Angry, 7/4 Tukitinyasok, 8/1 Consequential, 20/1 Fine Lace, 66/1 Early Dart,

DIOMED VERDICT: MISTER ANGRY has a bit to find on adjusted official ratings but he has the most convincing profile and is taken to add to his earlier win here.

Best probability race of the day - 4 horses and one at 66/1 - 2 will place 1.18 the front 2

SHORTLIST
Red Bull Saltzburg v Austria KArtnen - 1.15 - 7-1 head to heads here and looks there for the taking. 2 0-0's in last 2 games were against 1st and 3rd in the league. A ready alternative to the spectre of a jumps selection falling ( as seen yesterday, it will happen but you always hope not to yours and especially not at the final fence!)
NOT IN RUNNING

115 Cheltenham - Garde CHampetre and Heads on the ground should dominate but why the potential jockey changes all of a sudden? The could break the winning partnership of Nina and GArde - 1.41 is a nice price as is the comfort of 4 places

325 STHL - Shaadows lengthen priced to win again but I a ever mindful of winning sequences ending and sometimes with a thump

335 CHelt - in what looks a race involving 4 only, will Ruby consent to stay onboard Ghizao ?

Ajax 1.19 to beat NEC - IS IN RUNNING

ONE A DAY
Horse racing wise, I will personally be getting involved with Garde Champetre to place but am aware that the spectre of falling can scupper another day, which is why the official one a day would be AJAX this evening for me at 1.19 - another game in running and Ajax have ususally scored 3 or 4 against teams in the lowere quarter of the table