A bad decision on my part on Saturday. Lava step wins, Possol places, Tell Massini places,Celestial Halo places, Bayern win, Rangers win, Barcelona win and I simply chose the wrong one. Very frustrating.
The decision was based on price when it should have been based on the best probability bet which was Lava Step in a 5 horse race, 2 over 100/1 and 3 horses fighting for 2 places, but I was conscious that I wanted to offer a better price. I will return to what has served me so well in the last year and rather than trying to get better prices for you I must chose THE most solid bet of the day which ONE A DAY has been all about for over a year.

Only 2 meetings today and not many opportunities

105 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Peter Grimes, 2/1 Anak, 9/4 Westlin´ Winds, 16/1 Flannel, 20/1 Diktalina, 25/1 Stellar Cause, 66/1 The Saucy Snipe.

DIOMED VERDICT: PETER GRIMES gets the vote with the form of his Bangor win franked at the weekend.

Expectation that this race will concern the 3 market principles, but there has been slight each way support for Diktalina into 14/1.
Only 2 places make this difficult to call. Do we go with Peter Grimes, for the usually excellent Thornton/King partnership, or McCoy on Anak who previous blog readers remember was a faller at 1/6 odds last time out.
Peter Grimes 1.62 to place , Anak 2.08 to place , Westlin Winds 1.57 to place.

205 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Aldertune, 15/8 Abbevillian, 5/1 Dawn Choir, 9/1 Global Warming, 10/1 No Principles, 16/1 Oamaru Stone, 40/1 Aztec Treasure, 100/1 Quick Draw, Snow Kaddy.

DIOMED VERDICT: This will probably be between Ludlow winner Abbevillian and ALDERTUNE, the latter having hinted at some waywardness last time before he kept on strongly. 9 runners and 3 places and 3 are 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 of whom will place. The front 2 look the obvious contenders for McCoy/Egerton and Walsh/Nicholls. Any choice of either of these 2 to place should assume that both will place. 1.34 and 1.26 the front 2 to place. These top heavy markets are difficult because inevitably one of the front 2 will run below par, but which one? 250 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bubbly Bellini, 7/2 Tamarind Hill, 13/2 Cane Cat, 11/1 Mind Of Her Own, 12/1 Jonny No Eyebrows, Magenta Strait, Moonlight Serenade, 16/1 Raine Supreme, 20/1 Kidnap, Makarthy, 25/1 Feel The Magic, Seeking Rio, 40/1 Wild Heather. DIOMED VERDICT: BUBBLY BELLINI collared a fair sort late on when off the mark in a C&D claimer on Friday evening and can see off main danger Tamarind Hill. Price gapper in the live market and only 3 under 14/1 in the live betting. Will the race revolve around these 3? A 5 furlong 2 year old class 6 seller we have here and it requires an act of faith to get involved in a race of this nature 1.3 to place 420 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Desert Vision, 5/1 Oriental Cavalier, 11/2 Bavarica, 8/1 Ella Woodcock, 17/2 Waahej, 9/1 Formidable Guest, 10/1 Daniel Thomas, 12/1 Tin Cha Woody, 14/1 My Mate Mal, 20/1 Highland River. DIOMED VERDICT: DESERT VISION has a good chance of defying a penalty and completing a hat-trick. Oriental Cavalier and Bavarica look the main dangers. A price gapper here on a hatrick bid. Positives - Only 4 horses under 14/1. Negatives - multiple winners in handicaps will lose that winning sequence some time. Amateur riders hands and heels race typical of poor Monday cards. 1.34 to place 450 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tobrata, 5/2 Barbarian, 15/2 Woolfall Sovereign, 17/2 Quiet Mountain, 9/1 Lily Wood, 11/1 American Champ, 12/1 Owner Occupier, 25/1 Deportista, 28/1 Katie Girl, 33/1 Clarity Of Passion, 40/1 Boffin, 50/1 Chicamia, Madame McManus. DIOMED VERDICT: TOBRATA has a strong chance on his C&D third last Monday. Barbarian could be a handful if a visor sparks him back near his best. Placed in first 3 on last 3 runs augurs well for Tobrata, and he is only one of 3 under double figure odds, but this is a big field all weather maiden and they can be mayhem! 1.36 to place FOOTBALL Unirea Urziceni v Poli Iasi -630pm - 1.36 home team. Romanian league and a familiar team to Champions league followers. Home team Unirea have a home record of 5-1-1 (W-D-L) for their 7 home games this season Away team Poli Iasi have an away record of 1-1-6 (W-D-L) for their 8 away games this season I do like to see contrasting fortunes such as these. West Brom v QPR -745pm - tough one to call - against the top sides QPR have actually acquitted themselves well which could hint that they up their games against the leaders I would look to an over 1.5 goal bet here - only 2 of WBA's home games have been less than 2 goals (and they were 1-0 losses where they did not score) WBA lost at home last time, and surely will not accept 2 home losses on the trot? Again, only twice have QPR's games away from home gone under 2 goals. 1.26 over 1.5 goals, and of interest is the +1.5 goal handicap for QPR , in so much as this market being up hints at WBA scoring 2 . QPR have conceded 12 in their last 4 games and now face a West Brom side adept at scoring! IN RUNNING so this 1.26 can be traded if we get an early goal. SHORTLIST I really wanted to get going this week after Spurs shock defeat, but it's typical tough Monday fare, and not a rock solid bet in place 105 PLUMPTON - only 2 places but the problem is that I cannot readily discount any of the front 3, and add into the mix the potential market move for Diktalina and we have 4 vying for 2 places. clues? Well Westlin Winds is being backed as I write - follow the money? Peter Grimes and Westlin Winds were the 2 previous winners - focus on them? But then we discount McCoy's Anak, a faller last time but impressive winner before 205 PLUMPTON - more likely this race - 2 clear market leaders, 3 horses at 66/1 or bigger can be discounted, and one at 25/1 I hope can be dismissed. Leaves 5 competitive horses here and 3 places. Abbevillian the one for money but Ruby returns for the mount on Aldertune instead of Harry Skelton THe assumption if chosing either of these 2 is that these 2 will be fighting out the finish, and we cannot be certain given Aldertune's unseating rider 2 runs out 450 WOLVES - Tobrata's 3 recent placings in the first 3 augurs well for another placing this evening - 6/4 in places in this 13 runner middle distance event. 1.36 to place ONE A DAY As you can appreciate I want to get motoring and start a winning sequence but only have 2 meetings, one a soft ground jumps meeting and the 2nd an all weather meeting strewn with apprentice riders, maidens, and 3 class 6 0-60 handicaps - YIKES Of those above, consideration would be given to the following 205 PLUMPTON - choice between Abbevillian and Aldertune. CAn't split them - the former is the one for money and if chosing, we have to assume both horses will place, and indeed there will be no falls. Abbevillian as the market leader would be my pick here to PLACE ONLY 450 WOLVES - Tobrata has come 2nd, 2nd, 3rd in his last 3 runs, and is priced now at 6/4 in places, the shortest he has been .This augurs well for another placing, but 13 runners on the all weather can be a handful if there is any jockey misjudgement. I expect a good run but cannot say, with hand on heart, that this horse is nailed on to place. WEST BROM v QPR over 1.5 goals at 1.26 ( AND TRADEABLE) - concerns?QPR's concession of 8 goals in their last 2 games can bring on a "park the bus" attitude.West Bro failed to score in their last home game. Those are my 3 shortlisters but there's no "Lava Step" type probability race where the odds are on our sides. NO BET for me today but if any of the 3 mentioned offers a compelling argument to back, then go for it.