BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Earth Planet, 7/4 Giles Cross, 3/1 Mark The Book, 14/1 Starburst Diamond, 33/1 Valick, 40/1 Nebeltau.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Mark The Book is proven over these tricky fences and faced a tall order at Exeter on his reappearance but could be up against it once more with EARTH PLANET and Giles Cross in opposition. |
With Ruby consenting to stay in Ireland, a certain newcomer AP McCoy takes the Nicholls mounts in Chepstow beginning with Earth Planet
Only 3 horses under 16/1 should be the ones to concentrate on here surely? Valick is a potential market mover. 3 miles in heavy a concern. Giles cross is the one for money here.
We can approach this from a probability perspective and hope for the best
1.44 and 1.55 the front 2 to place tells you this race is not clear cut
Question mark over the front 2, Earth planet's fall last time and Giles Cross 2 pulled ups.
1250 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sandynow, 9/4 Will Be Done, 5/1 Mallusk, 6/1 Double Pride, 8/1 Ackertac, 20/1 Ash High, 25/1 Mr Valentino, 33/1 Extreme Conviction, Pinerock, Seize The Day, 50/1 Good For Blue, Paddy The Pirate, 100/1 Dromore Hill, Master Paddy, Phare Isle, True Illusion.
| DIOMED VERDICT: WILL BE DONE looks the one to be on, in receipt of weight from the penalised pair. |
Only 5 horses under 20/1 here the ones to focus on? Will be Done is the one they're talking about but does not have the regular jockey on today, rather AP Lane. Will be done fancied in the place market at 1.27 to place. I woould prefer to see the same jockey who has ridden him in his last races
With Sandynow, the provisional favourite a non runner, surely Will be Done can exploit the absence of nearest market rival
Will be done not run since JAn 09, but has performed admirably in class 1's - this is a class 3.
Proven on soft
130 LEOPARADSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Pandorama, 7/2 Catch Me, 9/2 Alpha Ridge, 6/1 Whatuthink, 8/1 Weapon´s Amnesty, 10/1 Aranleigh, 12/1 China Rock, 16/1 Lenabane, 25/1 Lucky Wish, 33/1 Coolpotts.
pandorama is a class horse and must enter thoughts re place only Catch me and Alpha ridge are the other 2 of interest. 1.31 to place Pandorama -has won 8 of his last 9 and beaten Alpha ridge twice. Looks a fair prospect for the place. My concern? There are 3 horses around 8/1 just itching to take advantage of any mistakes from Pandorama
245 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sang Bleu, 5/2 Rougham, 6/1 Kudu Country, 10/1 Bocamix, 12/1 Me Voici, 14/1 Riptide, 33/1 Hector´s House, 66/1 Extreme Impact, 100/1 Salontyre.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SANG BLEU, prominent in the Triumph Hurdle betting, comes with a big reputation and is taken to snap his stable's losing streak in this contest. Kudu Country and Rougham are the ones to beat. |
Heavy ground a negative. Only 4 under 12/1 in this race. Sang Bleu represents McCoy/Nicholls and is a talking horse. Not ran on heavy ground. 3 horses are 50/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted
Only 2 horses under evens in the place only market, Sang Bleu is clear place fav at 1.2
Already mentioned heavy ground - I'm not a big fan of betting in this ground
305 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Theatrical Moment, 4/1 Prince Taime, 7/1 Morning Moment, Tisfreetdream, 25/1 Mealagh Valley.
| DIOMED VERDICT: THEATRICAL MOMENT has taken well to chasing and can follow up his recent course win, possibly at the main expense of Tisfreetdream. |
3rd fav a non runner makes this another 4 runner race and 2 places - again a clear outsider can hopefully be discounted leaving, realistically, 3 horses and 2 places. The probability races yesterday came in - more of the same today? Theatrical Moment the obvious place only candidate and at 1.19 is a good bet to NOT get beaten by one horse in a prospective 3 horse race
A novice chase, and none of the 3 main principals can be discounted with confidence
315 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fusaichi Flyer, 15/8 Capricornus, 11/4 Mnasikia, 16/1 Celestial Girl, 20/1 Brave Enough, 33/1 All Right Now, Brave Decision, Erebus, Monograph, 100/1 Dunfishin, Seeking Rio, South African Gold.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This could be a fair maiden as CAPRICORNUS, Fusaichi Flyer and Mnasikia look winners waiting to happen. |
When Fanning is onboard for Johnston, expectation is for a good run - Capricornus is the horse.Only 3 under 12/1 in this race
Negatives - is a maiden and generally all are open to improvement 1.34 the fav to place
515 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Midnight Strider, 9/2 Levitation, 6/1 Major Lawrence, 8/1 Barbarian, Lindy Hop, 16/1 Hold The Star, 25/1 Chicamia, Venture Capitalist, 33/1 Morning Spring, 50/1 Barony, 66/1 Arch Event, Latin Connection.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MIDNIGHT STRIDER makes plenty of appeal up against a mostly-exposed field. |
Price gapper in this maiden is now odds on .There are only 5 under 25/1 here at time of writing.
"ought to be hard to beat given normal improvement"
Another maiden who is a strong favourite based on one run only.Analysis from last race
"Midnight Strider forfeited ground at the start and was green early on, but the way he finished had "future winner" written all over it. This Golan son of a French 1m winner is a half-brother to the smart 5f/7f winner Ponty Rossa and it would be no surprise to see him get off the mark at the second time of asking."
What concerns me slightly is that Tejime was 3rd and this horse flopped yesterday ,BUT in a maiden race wonand a 2nd by 2 16/1 system bets in Poet's Place and Bandstand.
The analysis says for Tejime that the surface may not have suited, and this is not a problem for Midnight Strider who runs at Wolves again 1.15 to place
FOOTBALL
MIDDAY - Stockport v Leeds 1.38 - Leeds were similarly priced in their last game and won that one.Leeds away from home have won all bar 2 draws and a loss away to Millwall
7 wins and 2 draws in their last 9 means Leeds are in rude health
Stockport are bottom of the league, and have lost their last 10 matches.Their home form is a mirror of Leeds away form - Stockport have LOST all at home bar 2 draws and a win against Leyton Orient NOT IN RUNNING
Against top 3 sides, they have lost 2-1 and 3-1 at home. Were beaten 2-0 at Leeds.
Could be worth chancing this game? Top v Bottom, contrasting form. BUT sequentially losing sequences end eventually.
1245 - Spurs v West Ham - 1.51 - the market expects a reasonably comfortable home win, albeit in a London Derby.
Spurs have lost 3 at home, 2 identical 1-0 losses to Stoke and Wolves where they couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo
0-0 at Fulham is not a surprise and the 2 previous wins show the strength of Spurs forward line
Hammers have already lost 2-1 at home to Spurs.
Apart from Wolves on opening day, West Ham have not won away from home. They have not played the top 5 away from home so we cannot guage their performances.
1.26 over 1.5 goals
3pm Chelsea v Fulham - 1.39 - research really paid off in their game against Birmingham.
Chelsea are in poor recent form - 3 draws and a loss in their last 5 games
At home, though, Chelsea have won all bar a 3-3 draw with Everton where they were ahead twice.
Fulham have not played the top 4 away from home so we cannot get a guide from this
Have lost 3, drawn 4 and won 1 away.
6 draws, 5 wins and one loss away to Birmingham is good form for Fulham, and proves they can be tough to break down.
Chelsea did win 2-0 at Fulham which may justify their price today.
Fulham look a tough nut to crack
1.17 under 4.5 goals here could be a good bet given recent Chelsea form and recent draw capabilities of Fulham
520pm
Newcastle v Derby - 1.41 - won all bar 2 at home, the Geordies are the form team in the Championship.
Have won 8 and drawn 2 of last 10. Have drawn 2 and won 1 of last 3.
Derby have lost their last 2 home games which really will dent confidence for an away trip to the leaders. Conceded 2 goals to 14th and 7th placed.
Face a Newcastle side who have scored 2 goals or more in their last 6 games and came from 1-0 down to lead 2-1 before drawing away to the Owls -a match they should have won.
Derby have drawn 1 and lost 3 to 3 of the top 6 that they have played away from home, conceding 3 and 6 goals in 2 of those games
SHORTLIST
1250 LEICESTER - Will be done can take advantage of the original favourite being withdrawn - concern over absence from race track and change of jockey to AP Lane who seems to be claiing 3
130 LEOPARDSTOWN - Pandorama has been ultra consistent winning 8 and one 2nd place.1.31 to place tells us this is a top class race - only the horse's 3rd chase race but has won previous 2
305 LEICESTER - another probability race this one and yesterdays was successful
Mealagh Valley should play no part. Theatrical Moment is odds on and a course and distance winner
Purely a probability race as I cannot safely discount Prince Taime and Tisfreedream
Could be worth a chance .
515 WOLVERHAMPTON - in recent days, maiden short priced favourites have disappointed. Tejime yesterday ran very poorly ,and this could have been the change of venue. Here Midnight Strider runs at Wolves again - there are only 5 horses under 25/1 at time of writing and Richard Kingscote retains the ride. Must have an outstanding chance of placing ( reflected in the current 1.15)
FOOTBALL
MIDDAY Top v Bottom. Leeds at 1.38 delivered at home last time, and are away to Stockport who are in the slump of slumps.I would have preferred an over 1.5 goals bet given Stockport have scored at home against top sides but this game is not in running so the markets are fewer on Betfair
520 -Newcastle v Derby. 1.45.
1.31 over 1.5 goals. Newcastle have scored 2 goals in each of their last 6 games. Their price looks spot on for this match
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