I was taken with the masochistic attitude of the Deal or No Deal woman who took a 50/50 chance over 1p or £250,000, and with that reckless attitude in mind I enhanced bet the total goal, 1 or more at 1.95
Yes I backed the total goals at 1.10 too
| Football > Int. Curtea de Arges v CFR Cluj : Total Goals | Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections |
| Selection | Odds | Stake(£) | Bid type | Placed | Profit/loss(£) | |
| 1 goals or more | 1.95 | 236.00 | Back | 07-Dec-09 18:42 | 224.20 | |
| 1 goals or more | 1.10 | 200.00 | Back | 07-Dec-09 11:58 | 20.01 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | 244.21 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | 0.00 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 244.21 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.4%: | 10.75 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 233.46 | |||||
God Bless Cluj!!
Flipping placed 2nd in the claimer beaten by a horse 20/1 in the betting forecast and SP 14/1 -typical 16/1 system bet.
the 150 Musselburgh is typical of the conundrum we face in jumps racing - Meridian City, odds on and fancied, fell - we simply cannot legislate for this.
Litex Lovech won 2-0, and the half time/fulltime bet came in. I think it will be a worthwhile exercise now in looking at the football markets at Bet365 for additional markets which can allow more opportunities that are not available at Betfair.
Before looking at horse racing, Leeds v Kettering looks stand out today in the Cup replay. I watched the first match and Leeds should have won comfortably, and I suspect they will do so tonight, so at 1.25 this could be a nice quick one a day selection. In running so tradeable as ever ( and if the scoreline remains 1-0 to Leeds, say, for a concerted period, then it would be good to get out. I cannot see Leeds failing this evening.
Chelsea are 1.37 v Apoel this evening in the only Champions League match that appeals - they don't need to win but a 20 strong unbeaten home record in the Champions League is something for Chelsea to work towards
A potential game of interest is the Marseilles game with Real Madrid. Marseilles need to win 3-0 to go through and with this frame of mind they simply cannot sit back. Real Madrid were back to their old tricks at the weekend allowing a poor Almeria to score 2 at the Bernabeau. BUT they scored 4. Logic dictates that goals should be an option surely?
Marseilles have home advantage too so the 12th man factor can help ensure the 1.31 over 1.5 goals gives us a run for our money
AC MILAN - here's what the UEFA site says
AC Milan coach Leonardo has called on his side "to keep moving forward" as they look to build on their fine recent run with the victory over FC Zürich that could secure them top spot in UEFA Champions League Group C. The in-form Rossoneri would miss out on a place in the knockout phase should they drop points and section leaders Real Madrid CF lose at Olympique de Marseille, but Leonardo believes his side are up to the challenge. "We are a mature team that has played important games before," he said. Zürich pulled off a shock win at San Siro on Matchday 2 and their coach Bernard Challandes expects another strong performance on Tuesday, even if their European campaign is certain of ending after this match.
It would seem that AC Milan need to win, and they have the small matter of revenge for home humiliation against FC Zurich. A 3-0 win against Sampdoria at the weekend is perfect for tonight.
As you know I love short odds footy teams WHO NEED TO WIN ( remember my last failure was a Shaktar team who did not need to win) - the motivation really does change the team's approach to the game. Recent solid goalscoring form against Sampdoria will add confidence in backing AC Milan
FC Zurich are way off the pace in their domestic league and have zero to play for bar home field pride
1200 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Lucky Mellor, 4/1 Orchid Wing, 9/2 Athwaab, Caramelita, 11/2 Italian Tom, 20/1 Baby Judge, 50/1 Redoubtable Grace, 100/1 Nidamar.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The drop to 5f and switch in surface could yield some improvement from CARAMELITA who has been showing a lot of pace over 6f and who has Fibresand winners in her pedigree. |
The fav is a non runner leaving what looks like a 4 horse race and 3 places.3 are 1.45 to place and Carmelita is 1.75 to place.
A good probability race at decent odds.. Athwaab is the market mover here
1240 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Anak, 9/2 Stormy Morning, 10/1 Maskateer, 14/1 Comprimario, 33/1 Dalrymple.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There's very little temptation to oppose ANAK, who won as he liked at Plumpton. |
McCoy on the jolly who won on heavy last time ( heavy again today) - only 2 places so no mistakes allowed 1.16 win, 1.08 place and a good sign that the live market shows 1/6.
Concern is, as already mentioned, heavy ground but did win on it.
110 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Ginolad, 3/1 Fassaroe, 7/1 Petito, 33/1 Miss Merenda.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Venetia Williams has found a very soft opening for her Australian recruit GINOLAD. |
From Australia to heavy ground in Fontwell. A 3 horse race here but no places - I don't know if Betfair have ceased with placings in 4 runner races -I am sure they used to put a place market up, maybe I a confusing it with 5 runner fields reduced to 4 runners
120 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Ballybriggan, 9/2 Milans Man, 5/1 Cool Mission, 12/1 Zero Six Zoo, 16/1 Basford Lass, 20/1 Achiltibuie, Border Flora, Cosmetic, 25/1 Barron Watlass, 40/1 Macs Island, 100/1 Betty´s Run, 200/1 Yes Mate.
| DIOMED VERDICT: BALLYBRIGGAN, whose form received a timely boost on Saturday, has plenty going for him and is preferred to interesting newcomer Cool Mission and Milans Man. |
They're coming thick and fast. Ballybriggan a price gapper here and only 4 under 16/1 - 1.16 to place exudes confidence in the place market
130 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Shadows Lengthen, 7/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 General Tufto, 10/1 Eightdaysaweek, 12/1 Venir Rouge, 16/1 Moscow Oznick, 33/1 Bicksta, Rock Art, St Savarin, 66/1 April The Second, Black Falcon.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to oppose SHADOWS LENGTHEN following his C&D romp in a stronger handicap than this one on Saturday. |
Price gapper in a 0-65 class 6 handicap and they generally place consistently. Concern that Shadows has already won 3 times and winning sequences always end eventually ( more so in handicaps with additional weight on each occasion - unless the trainer is smart!) Will this stop him placing though?
7lb claimer onboard would normally be a negative but he won with SHadows in a 5 runner affair last time - concern over middle distances, expecially with a bigger field, is a misjudgement of pace from an inexperienced claimer which might mess things up 1.17 to place
SHORTLIST
1200 SOUTHWELL is a race for those who like to take a chance (after all it is a 5 furlong nursery - YIKES!!). 1.45 on offer for 3 of the first 4 to place can be a persuasive enough price to gamble, and as I write, the probabilities increase with Athwaab an apparent non runner
Betfair's market has not reformed so I will carry on and hopefully it will have by the time I finish - the market has reformed on Betfair and the place market still pays out for 3 places - 1.22 Italian Tom , 1.22 Orchid Wing , and 1.4 Carmelita. This now becomes a very interesting probability race -the hope is these 3 dominate in what is a very messy 5 furlong nursery - remember we are effectively looking at a 2 year old handicap here and each of the 3 main contenders is either tackling a new surface or taking a drop back to the minimum trip. It would seem that Carmelita is the less fancied of the 3 .
1240 FONTWELL - Anak has been battered into 1/6 -1.16 for the win adn 1.08 for the place -has won on heavy ground and champion jockey onboard
130 STHL - my price gapper in a class 0-65 handicap system has been very consistent and Shadows LEngthen looks another great candidate. COncern is he is on a fourtimer today and these winning sequences in handicaps tend to end with a THUD! 1.17 to place
Leeds look standout this evening against Kettering and the price of 1.25 is better than the horses. I saw the game at Kettering which Leeds dominated and there should be no excuses at home. I suspect Kettering feel they have won already with a nice earner from the replay.
The NEED for 3 goals to no reply for Marseilles against a Real side who let in 2 to lowly Almeria at home at the weekend should surely mean 1.3 over 1.5 goals is going to give us a great run for our money. Marseilles are at home and just HAVE TO ATTACK from the off. Ronaldo plays today (no effect from the sending off at the weekend) and this is a recipe surely for a goal or 2?
ONE A DAY
The betting gods have served us up plentiful opportunities today. At the prices though, I must opt for Leeds United in the match odds market at 1.25. Apart from the 1.3 over 1.5 goals for Marseilles ,the Leeds game is the best price of the day.
From a horse racing perspective, well where do I begin?
Fancy speculating? 1200 Southwell is now a race of 6 runners and 3 places. It is difficult to split the front 3 but I would default on the live market favourite to place in this superb probability race.
1.08 for Anak to not get beaten by 2 horses in a 5 horse race looks a gift for a previous winner on heavy with the CHamp on board
Shadows Lengthen is another strong candidate today for my price gapper in a 0-65 class 6 handicap system. He should be very competitive today and is priced as such. Concern over the 7lb claiming jockey in a bigger field
SO, to conclude, it's Leeds United who will be seeing my ONE A DAY stake today, but from a personal perspective, I will be involving myself in the races mentioned above because on a different day, any of these 3 would be good one a day candidates.
Hope Leeds put it to bed tonight - remember this is in running so you can manage your positions, especially if Leeds take the lead.
With football this evening, and shorties like Leeds, Chelsea and AC Milan, do keep an eye out for enhanced football trading. Last week saw 100% record for me in those enhanced bets games I found out.
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