ANALYSIS AND COMMENT
I wish I had been a little more cavalier yesterday - all horses won and Diamond Harry placed too
FOOTBALL
730pm Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem - 1.44
Top v 5th and Anderlecht are unbeaten at home, BUT caution - but against the 3 top 5 teams they have played at home, they have won 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 - TIGHT GAMES!!
An 8 game winning streak preceded the recent draw .
Head to Heads - have beaten Zulte-Waregem away from home 2-0 which augurs well
1.19 under 4.5 goals here given the prevalence of tight home matches?
Zulte have only played one of the top 5 away from home, ,losing 3-1 to Club Brugge.
Away against other than top 5, they have drawn 4, won 2 and lost 2.
745pm - Portsmouth v Arsenal - 1.56 away
Pompey have lost against the 3 teams from the top 5 who have visited.Only wins against Wigan, Burnley and Liverpool ( the latter says more about Liverpool than Pompey's ability to beat the "top 4"
Arsenal away have lost to the 2 Manchesters and Sunderland and drew with West Ham (local derby) and Burnley ( good home record)
In good health coming off the back of 2 3-0 home wins. Pompey have managed 2 wins in 3 at home under Avram "interesting" Grant.
Could be a tough game for Arsenal this one. Cesc Fabregas the saviour of the last game may be an absentee.
745pm- Rangers v Dundee United -1.36 - an old firm side who belied 5/6 odds last time and beat a very in form Hibs side 4-1 , have now scored 19 goals in their last 5 games, 10 in their last 2, and 12 in their last 3 home games.
SO, we would want to see the strike force who have played in those games ,playing in today's ( if it is not called off)
At home, Rangers have only drawn 2,
Head to Heads -beat Dundee United away 3-0.
Dundee United HAVE NOT LOST away from home - and drew 1-1 with Celtic. United are 4th and against the top 6 sides they have played away, they have drawn all games - a coincidence or a certain tactic used away from home?
There is no getting away from the fact that Rangers are scoring freely. The last game saw a side who drew 1-1 with Rangers get mauled when Rangers came to visit (4-1)
1.23 over 1.5 goals looks reasonable given Dundee United have shown they can score away from home and Rangers are showing their strikers are in great form
745pm Man utd v Wigan - 1.22 - United have only lost one and drawn 1 at home
Head to heads - beat Wigan at their ground 5-0
United have only failed to score more than once goal twice
Wigan away to the top 5 they have played have been royally spanked 4-0 and 9-1.
Have only failed to score away twice
Goals tonight? Over 1.5 goals? 1.22 over 1.5 goals replicates the match odds market for Man Utd but ,ore importantly, involves both sides playing for us
Betfair indicates by the inclusion of the correct score 2 market and over/under 6.5 goals markets that it expects some goals
HORSE RACING
1240 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dolly Penrose, 7/4 Asturienne, 6/1 Dot´s Delight, 12/1 Misstree Dancer, 14/1 Gan On, 16/1 She´s On The Case, Tara Isle, 25/1 New Mill Moll, Sordid Secret, 50/1 Floraline, Joking Aside, Mrs Overall, 66/1 Lethal Dream, Park Run.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This may lie between previous winners DOLLY PENROSE and Asturienne, with preference for Dolly Penrose who was well suited by testing conditions on the Flat and won well on her hurdles debut at Exeter recently. |
A mares novice hurdle. Only 5 under 16/1 here and 2 potential market overs in New Mill Moll ( currently 14/1) and Mistree Dancer
Diomed? Spotlight thinks this revolves around the front 2, and if considering a place only bet on these 2, we must assume both will place. Dolly Penrose is 1.3 to place and Asturienne 1.47 to place
110 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Tito Bustillo, 7/4 Spirit Of Adjisa, 10/1 Rock Celtic, 14/1 Akiem, Jadalee, 20/1 Clouseau, Dean´s Grange, Maggio, 25/1 Argentis, Art Man, Rigadin De Beauchene, Robain, 100/1 Chipless, Foot To The Flora.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Spirit Of Adjisa shaped well on his hurdle debut and can make the most of the weight he receives from Tito Bustillo. |
Only 2 horses under 14/1 here and Tito Bustillo is now odds on for Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls.Spirit represents King/Thornton, and barring accidents, these 2 excellent jumps combinations should dominate
Tito Bustillo is 1.15 to place, and Spirit is 1.29 to place. Significant conidence in Tito Bustillo to place mirrors the odds on status in the win only market
120 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Wotashirtfull, 3/1 Sir Edwin Landseer, 6/1 Charlie Delta, 8/1 Obe Gold, Secret Witness, 16/1 Sam´s Cross, 20/1 Peopleton Brook, Trip Switch, 33/1 Equinity.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SIR EDWIN LANDSEER isn't entirely straightforward but this sort of company shouldn't be beyond him and he gets a tentative vote. |
An interesting race - secret witness is a non runner leaving 8 runners and 3 places. Only 4 horses under 25/1 the ones to concentrate on?
This is a class 6 selling stakes so caution re race type
Wotashirtfull 6/4 and Sir Edwin 15/8 in places.
UPDATE - Wotashirtfull is a non runner now which surely makes life easier for Sir Edwin Landseer?
1.2 to place in a race where there are now 7 runners and still 3 places on Betfair - as mentioned above, Sir Edwin is in a seller for a reason, and it's not because he is closely matched in quality to Sea the Stars!! Bear that in mind. BUT from a probability perspective, an interesting bet, and with this latest news, a more compelling case to place back
230 LINGFIELD
| DIOMED VERDICT: There is nothing between Laurie Grove and ROCKY'S PRIDE, who are both dropping to claiming level for the first time, and the latter is only marginally preferred. |
With Kamanja and Rock me both 33/1 or bigger in the live market, this should involve 3 runners and 2 places. The front 3 are difficult to separate though at 11/10 , 5/2 , 5/2 so this becomes a pure prrobability race
Default to the favourite Rocky's Pride? 1.31 to place and chosen simply because he's the favourite. This is a lucky dip race - 3 horses effectively and 2 places - 2 will place, one will not - simple as that!!
305 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Shakalaka, 7/4 Zerzura, 11/2 Chanrossa, New Couture, 14/1 Big Nige, 20/1 Lily Eva, 33/1 Litenup, 50/1 Sacco D´Oro, 66/1 Set Em Up Mo.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The quirky Shakalaka isn't the type that you'd want to take too short a price about. Henry Cecil's ZERZURA is an interesting newcomer and positive market signals would suggest that he may be up to the task. |
A middle distance maiden race here, and again there are only 4 runners under 16/1 - will the race revolve around these 4, and if so, which one to chose to place?
Chanrossa is the market mover here ,slightly, into 3/1 in a market where Zerzura is 6/4 in places and Shakalaka seems on the drift to 9/4 ( 5/2 in places)
Zerzura is a debutant - faith in the market here? 1.35 to place with Shakalaka 1.5 to place
325 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ramses De Marcigny, 5/1 Prince Of Denial, Shakalakaboomboom, 7/1 Spring Moon, 12/1 Regency Dreams, 16/1 So Ecstatic, 20/1 Cryptic Bert, Silver Dove, 33/1 Double Or Quitz, 40/1 Musical Wedge, 50/1 Joesgoldenscrumpy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks set for one of the newcomers, with the vote going to RAMSES DE MARCIGNY. |
4 debutants and 6 who have only had the one run mean that the live market nearer the off is the ideal way to approach this bumper.
As I write, Ramses De Marcigny cannot be ignored as the representative of the Walsh/Nicholls combo, and Shakalakaboomboom is the early market mover 1.34 and 1.50 the 2 mentioned horses to place
355 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Owen Glendower, 7/4 Irish Airman, 9/1 Featherbed Lane, 10/1 Dolly Grey, 12/1 Lion On The Prowl, 16/1 Nehemiah, 20/1 Milandale, 25/1 Sherminator, 33/1 Inspector Qics, 50/1 Winter Warmer, 66/1 Aerospace.
| DIOMED VERDICT: OWEN GLENDOWER bumped into a useful opponent at Southwell recently and can go one better. |
Another bumper ,and you know the drill by now - market consultation paramount.
At this early stage, there are no real market movers here. Owen Glendower is now odds on as I write, and represents the excellent Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson combo.
Irish Airman is the Nicholls/Walsh horse.
Owen Glendower 1.16 to place - short price already and some 4 1/2 hours to the off.!!
SHORTLIST
745pm - Rangers' recent form cannot be ignored, neither can the amount of goals they have scored.
BUT Dundee United's ability to NOT LOSE away from home must also be accounted for.
That said, Rangers are in really good form, have beaten Dundee United away from home already (convincingly) and are scoring freely. Take them to win in the match odds market with a far safer over 1.5 goals bet (involving both sides)
745pm - Man Utd v Wigan - 1.22
A must win really for United. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 involves both sides.
120 LINGFIELD - with the late absence of Wotashirtfull, surely this opens the race up to Sir Edwin Landseer, who was joint favourite? Cautionary note re race type - seller, but probability wise has a great chance of inishing in the first 3 in a 7 horse race where his nearest market rival was a non runner
230 LINGFIELD - another great probability race, and I've been doing well with them of late. A 3 horse race and 2 places, Rockys pride default selection as the favourite?
We are faced today with a number of top heavy markets - eg 2 horses clear favs with a price gap to the next ( eg 13/8 , 7/4 , 9/1 in the 355 Taunton)
At Taunton too, there are a few bumpers ( national hunt flat races) where the market nearer the off must be consulted ,and so it would be remiss of me to put up a bumper selection this early
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
120 LINGFIELD - I return to Sir Edwin Landseer in this race . If he runs as per his original price when Wotashirtfull was a runner, then he has a great chance of placing
745pm - Rangers have been in incomparible form in their last few matches - what impressed me more was 4-1 away to Hibs when priced at 5/6. Over 1.5 goals today given Dundee United's unbeaten away form ( also concern re the weather which has seen Celtic's game called off)
745pm - on a level playing field, Man Utd will always beat Wigan at Old Trafford - question mark regarding the defensive unit. Surely Gary Neville should be pensioned off by now? 1.22 over 1.5 goals rather than 1.22 an Utd straight win? ( although I suspect Man Utd will win)
NOTE - the Rangers and Man Utd games are both ideally suited to trading - ie laying off after Man Utd /Rangers take the lead. Although this is not a necessity, it is advised when you have the opportunity ( and both games are evening kick offs)
No comments:
Post a Comment