18 December

Lost out by a short head. Frustrating that Novikov placed as well yesterday

Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
	Lily Lily	9-0 b	J Fanning	K McAuliffe	2	8/1
hd	Ambrogina	9-0	T Eaves (3)	M Botti	2	4/1
opened 11/2
2¼	Privy Speech (IRE)	9-0	R Winston	Rae Guest	2	8/1
opened 17/2 touched 9/1
s.h	Puteri (IRE)	9-0	A Culhane	M A Jarvis	2	8/11 f
£500-£550 (x5) £500-£600 (x4) £800-£1000 £400-£500 (x13)
Still no payout for short heads. Incredibly frustrating.Such a distance the difference between profit and loss. Goes down as a loser and yet again for me another wrong final decision -different decision = different result which is why I want to show you the analysis - Camburr won 4-0 for instance - Novikov won - Ernst Blofeld won- I just have to improve on my final decision because we are facing catch up! FOOTBALL Bayern Munich v H Berlin - 1.22 - won last 3 -scoring 10 goals after 3 draws - unbeaten in 9 games and 4 draws amongst those. Playing bottom side at home who have lost all bar one away from home and only won one game ALL SEASON. 3pm Aston Villa v Stoke - 1.47 - a reasonable price for a team on form - unbeaten in their last 6 - Stoke seem to be draw experts away from home which ties in with the near 1/2 on Betfair 3pm - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.29 - unbeaten at home -only 2 draws - have scores 3 times in each of their last 3 games - 0-0 Away to Motherwell away is a slight concern and that was part of a 4 time draw sequence so has to be taken in that context - recent results ( 12 goals in 5 games) augur well Motherwell are draw specialists away from home ( drawn 5, and have drawn 0-0 away to Celtic and home to Rangers) Likely to be a tight enough game but a Rangers breakthrough should indicate a win, IF they make the breakthrough 5pm - Panathanaikos v Giannina - 1.25 - 2nd v 14th here - won all but one at home ( and that was a 1-1 draw) - Giannina have lost all but 2 of their away games - the 2 games were against bottom 5 sides - away side have lost 2-0 and 3-1 away from home to 3rd and 4th sides ( Pana are 2nd in the league) - 3 2-1's and one 1-0 mean that games are generally tight 530pm - Arsenal v Hull - 1.23 - emphatic home winners apart from Chelsea defeat. Hull away drew 1-1 with Man City and Wolves. Expectation is NOT for a repeat of Hull's exploits at the Emirates 645 - Feyenoord v Willem 11 - 1.31 home side - emphatic winners against those 10th and lower in Dutch league - have beaten Willem 11 away 3-2 - prompt towards goals perhaps given the tightness of the away tie 1.21 over 1.5 goals 9pm - Real Madrid v Zaragoza - 1.23 - 2nd v 18th of 20 - exemplary home record for Real - Zaragoza no wins away from home - lost 4 out of 5 against top 5 sides ( Real tonight) - never conceding less than 3 - looks good for Real at home this evening . Niggle regarding Ronaldo who may still be banned after his sending off - the guy is worth a goal or 2 he is that good. RUGBY UNION - Treviso v Northampton - 1.19 - realistic odds for the away side HORSERACING On such small margins yesterday - a short head between 3rd place and a winning bet. 1240 HAYDOCK BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 My Moment, 5/2 Quwetwo, 3/1 Bedlam Boy, 12/1 Al Co, 20/1 Tartan Snow, DIOMED VERDICT: Bedlam Boy and Quwetwo are respected but MY MOMENT has already made a good transition to chasing and can win again. First race of interest today and this should involve the 3 market leaders fighting for 2 places My Moment 1.61 to place, Quwetwo 1.71 to place 1250 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Stargaze, 5/2 Robust Wish, 15/2 Kai Mook, 12/1 American Agent, 14/1 Exceedthewildman, Minortransgression, 100/1 One Cool Slash. DIOMED VERDICT: Unless he has gone backwards since moving yards, STARGAZE ought to be hard to beat for all he is trying a new trip. The 2nd favourite is a non runner which should make life easier for Stargaze today. Now 1/2 and a "hard to beat " selection - only 2 places though - 2 debutants a slight concern as we do not know how good or otherwise 1.2 to place 225 NAVAN BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Medical Card, 3/1 West Cork Flyer, 5/1 Our Aodh, 6/1 Not Before Eight, 8/1 West Of The Border, 10/1 Rather Curious, 12/1 Seeability, 14/1 Forty Foot Tom, 20/1 Swift Accordian, Venture Wild, 25/1 Dead End. Medical card may be of interest here in this bumper for Nina Carberry and Noel Meade - 1.28 to place 230 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: Evs Tranquil Tiger, 3/1 Saphira´s Fire, 7/1 Suits Me, 9/1 Plum Pudding, 10/1 Sky Crusader, 14/1 Settigano, 33/1 Rock Ascot, 50/1 Baylini. DIOMED VERDICT: Not a strong race as is the par for most Listed contests on AW and a good opportunity for TRANQUIL TIGER to follow up his recent C&D victory and post another win in this grade to his CV. The straight 8 runners herer for 3 places and 2 clear outsiders choulod reduce the competitive field 1.1.17 to place 6 runners now and still 3 places SHORTLIST All of the football matches today look strong. Bayern face the bottom side at home and have returned to some semblance of form. Arsenal have scored freely at home - do not expect a repeat of Hull's shock win Feyernoord and Willem 11's game should have goals. 1.21 over 1.5 goals means both teams are working for you. 1250 LINGFIELD - Stargaze is a " hard to beat " selection - 2nd favourite is a non runner which should make it far easier for Stargaze to place. 230 LINGFIELD - 6 runners and 3 places and Tranquil Tiger has a great chance here of placing in the first 3. This is a class 1 listed race so all horses are good.