31/10

Profit yesterday, winning by a head to a 100/1 shot - not a bother as they say over here because the horse was back to placed
150 NMKT

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Penny´s Gift, 8/1 Art Princess, Miss Eze, Qalahari, 9/1 Caranbola, 12/1 Happy Forever, Oasis Breeze, 16/1 Coconut Shy, Flame Of Ireland, 20/1 Calahonda, 50/1 Albertine Rose.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PENNY'S GIFT has plenty in her favour and, although the fact she is coming to the end of a longish campaign is something to bear in mind, she is expected to be equal to the task. Miss Eze is the least exposed and a likely improver but the most viable each-way alternative may be Qalahari.[FC]

big price gap 2.58 / 1.38

BUT class 1 listed race - yes you know the drill - all horses in this field are good!

200 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Carruthers, Pancake, 7/2 What A Friend, 6/1 Carnival Town, 8/1 Hopkins, 10/1 Double Intruder, 33/1 Tarsus, The Accordion Man, 66/1 Plum Pudding,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CARRUTHERS looked the part when able to boss things from the front last season and will be tough to collar on his chasing debut if finding some early rhythm. Not that it's going to be easy, as half the field have potential to go a fair way over fences

10 runner field down to 6 = possible probability bet if Betfair still pay 3 the place 3.6 / 1.36 ( 3 horses share 1.36 odds in the place market!)

320 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sergheyev, 7/2 Border Reiver, 8/1 Almond Court, Bobtante, 12/1 Desert Stag, 16/1 Keene Spirit, 33/1 Calm Seas, Newsham Glory, 40/1 Lady Hazel, 50/1 Solar Rock, 100/1 Bridging Loan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Border Reiver could be open to improvement now he steps up in trip but the unpenalised SERGHEYEV (nap) has been found a good opportunity to add to his Newton Abbot maiden win.[

No early price market, but there are only 4 horses sub double figure odds 1.96 / 1.16

Tricky day today with Pennys Gift in a competitive top class race and ? marks over tiredness after a long campaign?
The 200 Uttoxeter is interesting from a probability perspective and I'll chance Carruthers here

30/10

Job done yesterday on either Levera or the football treble at an enticing 1.6. The mug punter acca was undone in the Panathanaikos game where, interestingly enough, there were 2 separate posts on the Betfair forum before the game screaming out "fixed game". Oh well!

650 GREAT L:EIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Veloso, 4/1 Zuwaar, 8/1 Looks The Business, Shenandoah Girl, 10/1 Fantasy Ride, Fateful Attraction, 20/1 Mighty Kitchener, 33/1 Allahor, Missie Baileys, 50/1 Amicus,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Zuwaar having something to prove after his last two starts, this is probably best left to VELOSO. Proven under the conditions, he didn't do much wrong in defeat at Wolverhampton at the weekend and has plenty in his favour here

A class 6 seller so a note of caution and note too the start time - as things stand a decent enough price gap and 4 likely outsiders make life easier for the market leader to place

1240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 West With The Wind, 7/2 Silk Trail, 11/2 Kouloura, 7/1 Freepressionist, 12/1 King´s Siren, Novastasia, 14/1 Diamond Til, 16/1 Salybia Bay, 20/1 Downstream, Stellarina, 25/1 Moggy, 33/1 Arty Crafty, Clodoline.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WEST WITH THE WIND looks to shade Kouloura, Freepressionist and the others that have already been seen out, but Goldolphin's well-bred newcomer Silk Trail could obviously throw a spanner in the works

An interesting market with 3 standout market leaders

100 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Houston Dynimo, 4/1 Harrison´s Star, Woody Waller, 7/1 La Fortalesa, 10/1 Banquet, 14/1 Agglestone Rock, 16/1 Victorias, 20/1 Bulas Boy, 25/1 Cashmere Jack, Pequeno Dinero, 40/1 Recoil, 50/1 Midnite Blews, 66/1 Magnushomestwo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Harrison's Star is the most appealing of those with experience, but a couple of the newcomers are interesting and HOUSTON DYNIMO gets the vote over Woody Waller.It should be revealing to see how both trade in the betting.

Juvenile novices hurdle and a lack of form among many 3.15 / 1.42 for Wooly Waller - money for him!

130
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 That´s Rhythm, 7/2 Role On, 13/2 Mill Side, 8/1 High Bird Humphrey, 10/1 The Shy Man, 12/1 Belon Gale, 14/1 Jass, 16/1 Andijan, Sir Monty, 25/1 Nile Moon, 33/1 Industrial Star, Teerie Express, 100/1 My Friend Paul.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Providing That's Rhythm doesn't bounce from his latest effort, he looks a serious player but he could be worth taking on with chasing debutant ROLE ON, who admittedly has something to find on hurdles form but looks the type to do better over fences

Beginners chase! 2.24 / 1.26

150 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Predateur, 7/2 Crescent Island, 6/1 Kia Kaha, 7/1 Kawagino, 8/1 Chiaro, Masked Man, 11/1 Mount Sandel, 33/1 Paradise Regained, 50/1 Country Affair, Just A Thought, Wasntme, 66/1 Musical Chairs.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paul Nicholls is expecting better things of PREDATEUR this season, though the 5yo earns the vote anyway on the pick of last term's form. There are plenty of interesting newcomers to fences for him to deal with, as well as Crescent Island and Kawagino, both of whom have shown enough to suggest they can win an ordinary novice chase, but he should cope provided his troubles are behind him.

powerful Nicholls yyard on the hot pot 2.32 / 1.21 - Cresent island close in the ebtting
420 STRAT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bakbenscher, 6/1 West End King, 7/1 Master Darcy, 8/1 Supreme Keano, 10/1 National Petition, 12/1 Rockiteer, 14/1 Springfield Gunner, 16/1 Forty Five, 20/1 Anthony´s Road, 25/1 Avec Moi Ce Soir, Le Toto, 33/1 Wessex King, 100/1 Florindalus, Ikorodu Road, Where Now Madame, 150/1 Theseainttoys.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of dead wood. West End King is a potential fly in the ointment but basically this looks an ideal launch pad for BAKBENSCHER's hurdling caree

Now 4/6 but a very big field over jumps 1.73/1,24

ONE A DAY - Bakbenscher for me today for the Thornton/King combination

29/10

Back now safe and sound - car is fixed and back on track
I left off with Ask unplaced. So it's loss retrieval time
200 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alonso De Guzman, 7/2 Mustajed, 8/1 Garrulous, Tender Falcon, 10/1 Dhehdaah, Inspirina, Red Wine, 14/1 Augustus John.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these are hard to predict or difficult to win with but that's not the case with ALONSO DE GUZMAN (nap), a regular scorer and a reliable type who has gone well fresh and who has the services of Frankie Dettori. Looks a 2 horse race? BUT always warning signs when the perceived outsider is only 14/1 Alonso's good runs though have come on turf 120 HUNT BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tuanku, 11/4 Starluck, 4/1 Golden Bishop, 10/1 Metal Madness, 14/1 Joshua, 33/1 Abfabfong, 40/1 Boomtown, 50/1 Janet´s Delight, 66/1 Hellfire Bay, Magpie, 100/1 Seven Stars. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Golden Bishop and Starluck are interesting newcomers to be monitored for market confidence but TUANKU may make his previous experience count. Another King/Thornton combo on a market leader - always good to see - race type - juvenile novices hurdle tells you they are all relatively new to this aspect of jumping 5 newcomers - 2 of which are 2nd and 3rd in the betting - could be ominous for the market leader 250 BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Levera, 4/1 Bolodenka, 11/1 Trachonitis, 16/1 Most Definitely, Mugs Game, Outlandish, 20/1 Crosby Jemma, Erdeli, Overrule, 25/1 Desert Star, Okoum, Prince Des Marais, Wester Ross, 66/1 Panadin, 200/1 Cnidos, Feeling. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LEVERA is proving a hit over hurdles, as he should be given his old level of ability on the Flat, and can take care of interesting newcomer Bolodenka.[PJ] Deja vu - another novices hurdle -another King/Thornton hot pot - certainly an interesting price gap between the front 2 and the rest of the field - market move for Outlandish now 15/2 -significant? 750 KEMP BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Film Set, 4/1 Go Go Green, 5/1 Rowayton, 6/1 Tropical Paradise, 12/1 Via Mia, 14/1 Dakota Hills, My Sweet Georgia. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only a small field but it's unlikely to be tactical, with several having made the running before. Go Go Green is drawn to attack in stall 7 but has more on his plate up another 5lb against the likes of FILM SET, who's made a good impression in both of his starts. Frankie takes the trip to Kempton - significant? BUT 7 runner race pays only 2 the place 240 NOTT - HEAVY GROUND - BE CAREFUL BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Affluent, 7/2 Silent Wonder, 7/1 Breakevie, 8/1 Mister Tinktastic, 16/1 Solis, 20/1 You´relikemefrank, 25/1 Oceanic Dancer, 50/1 Louie´s Lad. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Silent Wonder has the best form of those with experience but he's only rated 73 and the well-bred AFFLUENT may well be up to the task, particularly if the market gives the right signals Interesting that the early market has Silent wonder at 11/8 and Affluent at 2/1 3 horses at 40/1 or bigger make place betting easier on one of the market leaders as long as these outsiders run to their prices in this maiden 340 BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Cara´s Request, 3/1 Shamali, 7/1 Supaverdi, 12/1 Fancy Footsteps, Manere Bay, 14/1 Highland Relish, Wing Diva, 16/1 Gargano, 25/1 Antillia, 33/1 Timewatch, 66/1 Benitez Bond, Peedee, SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CARA'S REQUEST, an Australian-bred colt who receives a hefty weight allowance as he's a September foal, is taken to enhance the solid form of his second here earlier in the month. Shamali should be thereabouts, while Supaverdi is the most interesting newcomer The heavy ground has meant many non runners but still 3 the place and Shamali a noticeable non runner - will this make life easier for Caras Request? - has run on soft 315 PUNCH BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Forpadydeplasterer, 11/2 Your Sum Man, 6/1 Narquois, 10/1 Derravarra Eagle, Fond Of A Drop, 12/1 Clarified, Decoy Daddy, Major Sensation, 14/1 Hidden Agent, Kingsmaster, 20/1 Fortis Et Fidelis, Le Sparnacien, Stewarts House, 25/1 City Beach, Gundagai, The Hoodoo Remains, 50/1 Inoma James, Jason Bourne, I remember the fav from last year and some hefty punts on him Big field mind in this one and a new trip SHORTLIST In loss retrieval mode I become ultra cautious as I want this to be a winning bet. So I do tend to look at the football as well for an "obvious" bet Looks like European Cups abound tonight with some minnows versus giants Diagoras Rodou v Olympiacos - Olympiacos at 1.23 make appeal Portugalete v Valencia - VAlencia at 1.4 Chelsea are following a defeat at home with an away game (wounded animal?) to title contenders ( clears throat) Hull City who are brimming with confidence. 1.48 is reasonable. Man Utd 1.21 at home to the hammers who they could, ahem, hammer On the horse racing front - heavy ground at Nottingham precludes that venue Levera would be my one today and from a footballing perspective, a treble on Valencia 1.14 remove Olympiaco.. 1.20 remove Shakhtar 1.16 remove pays 1.60 As an aside, with these European cup games it is always interesting to compile a mug punter acca incase all of the mismatches go the way of the shorties ( I had 16 from 17 last time and only failed because I inserted a halftime/fulltime bet instead of match odds bet on a team who won 5-0!) This acca pays 22.26 ! Fingers crossed! I would like to include more but there's a limit at Ladbrokes Heerenvee.. 1.30 remove Young Boys 1.10 remove AB Copenhage.. 1.33 remove Panathina.. 1.25 remove Kaisersla.. 1.36 remove Zenit St Petersbur.. 1.22 remove Legia Warsaw 1.16 remove Sparta Prague 1.22 remove Olympiaco.. 1.20 remove Shakhtar 1.16 remove Dynamo Kiev 1.16 remove Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 remove Dinamo Zagreb 1.30 remove NK Cibalia 1.20 remove Hajduk Split 1.20 remove

NO BLOG TODAY STUCK IN CORK POOR BROADBAND!

25/10

Another full house of placed bets yesterday - if only all placed bets cold be like Zenyatta - I would be a millionaire Rodney backing them every day!

AINTREE
Top class over the jumps
105
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rippling Ring, 10/1 Dishdasha, Dunaskin, French Opera, Khachaturian, 14/1 Ellerslie Tom, Mr Jack Daniells, Pearl King, Zanir, 20/1 Culcabock, Folk Tune, 25/1 Divine Gift, Freeloader, Soubriquet, 33/1 Nevertika, Sinatas.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A valuable handicap featuring several exposed sorts but the one that could prove a good deal better than his current mark is RIPPLING RING (nap). This highly regarded sort, who caught the eye with the way he travelled for a long way in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (race worked out tremendously well), starts handicap life on a potentially lenient mark and he's very much of interest at a course and on ground that should firmly play to his strengths. Dishdasha should also find things to his liking and may prove best of the remainder

Now that's a price gap! 1.75 / 1.18 -right guy on board - Ruby and 4 to be placed

315

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 American Trilogy, 8/1 Hernando Royal, 10/1 Dzesmin, 12/1 Make Haste, Princeful, 14/1 Morning Sunshine, Risk, Safari Journey, 16/1 Berkeley Castle, Best Horse, Sea Storm, 20/1 Room At The Top, 25/1 Desert Storm, Masterofceremonies, Moody Tunes, Sandy´s Legend, 33/1 Giant Star, Spirit Of The Mist, 50/1 Sleepers Hill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of those with hurdling experience looks anything out of the ordinary and AMERICAN TRILOGY, a good Flat-racer in his native France and well regarded in his top stable, can make a successful hurdles debut. \Princeful, another to have won on the Flat in France, will be interesting if attracting market support while Hernando Royal could prove best of those with hurdles form

The Nicholls /Walsh do account for the majority of the favourites here at Aintree - another price gap BUT in a big field and a maiden hurdle ( you should know how I feel about maiden hurdles by now) Unraced and fav on reputation of Nicholls/Walsh 2.08 / 1.29

120 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Junior, 4/1 Tarablaze, 6/1 Gray Mountain, 15/2 Khachaturian, 8/1 Diablo, Hell´s Bay, 9/1 Possol, 20/1 No Panic, Winged D´Argent, 25/1 Chevy To The Levy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The best novice hurdle run so far this season, with a host of in-form, unexposed, useful types in opposition. Unbeaten Gray Mountain and Tarablaze command plenty of respect but they will need to be decidedly smart to concede weight to JUNIOR (nap), whose spring runs in top handicaps set a useful standard on form. Though yet to win over hurdles, three wins from his last four Flat starts (last time in July 2007) confirm that he is more than willing to put his head in front.

If its not Walsh/Nicholls then it's King/Thornton - always trustworthy on market leaders and Choc is a superb jockey to have on your side 3 /1.55 - caution here that the place only price is a little big indicating a tight race

435
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Pride Of Dulcote, 5/1 Little Josh, Minella Four Star, 8/1 Martys Mission, 10/1 Ballinderry Park, 12/1 Pilgrims Lane, 14/1 Time To Panic, 20/1 De Welsh Wizzard, Lord Shark, 25/1 Marias Rock, 33/1 Mooncoin Man, The Good Doctor, 40/1 Kentford Mist, Three Thieves, 50/1 Baker´s Girl, Man Of The Moment.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A clutch of former point winners are worth noting in the betting in an ordinary race but if PRIDE OF DULCOTE holds it together at the hurdles and shows something close to last season's decent novice hurdle form, he will set a useful enough standard.

Another maiden hurdle - another Nicholls hotpot? 2.36 / 1.35

300 DONNY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Sayif, 6/1 Favourite Girl, 9/1 Hartley, 10/1 Dark Mischief, 14/1 Enderby Spirit, 20/1 Noble Storm, 25/1 Able Master, Imperial Guest, 33/1 Absent Pleasure, Carnaby Haggerston, La Brigitte, Spiritofthewest, 50/1 Kingswinford.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to get away from SAYIF and the fact that he has yet to win a race owes more to do with the way he has been campaigned than any other factor. Hartley may the best each-way alternativ

Another price gap which is eye catching albeit in a class 1 listed race for 2 year olds - negatives for me - Jamie Spencer on board - I don't have the confidence in him that I have in Ruby or Thornton 1.93 / 1.21

110 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Monitor Closely, 6/1 King´s Song, 13/2 London Bridge, 10/1 All Guns Firing, Cherish The Moment, 12/1 Mellow Mixture, Rupestrian, 14/1 Almutawaazin, Red Junior, 22/1 Sonning Gate, 25/1 Brunston, Going For Gold, Midnight Bay, 33/1 Green Endeavour, Save My Blushes, Ultimate, 50/1 Rebel Swing, 100/1 Litenup.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On paper, at least, probably not a vintage renewal and it will be disappointing given the level of form he has shown so far if MONITOR CLOSELY cannot get off the mark. All Guns Firing and King's Song may prove bigger threats than Red Junior, while Brunston, from a yard that has won this race twice in recent years, also looks another with a good shot of a place 1.84 / 1.24

A number of debutants in this maiden

245
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Ask, 6/1 Blue Monday, Spanish Moon, 8/1 Buccellati, 12/1 Sell Out, 14/1 Scintillo, 50/1 Championship Point, Numide.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It should be close again between Blue Monday and Spanish Moon, but neither ought to be able to cope with ASK under what look to be his ideal conditions and he is a confident selection

njice race for place only backing - 3 the place in an 8 runner race with a nice price gapper 1.84 / 1.17

1145 SANTA ANITA
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Curlin, 7/1 Casino Drive, Henrythenavigator, Raven´s Pass, 8/1 Go Between, 10/1 Colonel John, Duke Of Marmalade, 16/1 Student Council, 25/1 Champs Elysees, Tiago, 33/1 Fairbanks, 50/1 Smooth Air.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Duke Of Marmalade could have done with a pacemaker here as the early pace looks set to be a crawl. This favours HENRYTHENAVIGATOR, who quickened tremendously off a slow pace to win the Sussex Stakes and has always looked likely to improve over 10f.

The winning machine Curlin races against some wonderful opponents. A good place chance for the Ferarri on 4 legs? 3.4 / 1.53

415 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Right Stuff, 7/1 Laish Ya Hajar, Nordwind, 10/1 Kingsben, March Mate, Topjeu, 14/1 Micheal Flips, Santarctique, Venir Rouge, 20/1 Nur Tau, 25/1 Boo, Knock Em Dead, 33/1 Beware The Digger, Bold Shuffle, Chicken George, Diva´s Brother.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for RIGHT STUFF (nap), who shaped well on his hurdle debut and is open to plenty of improvement.

Anotehr price gapper in another maiden hurdle 2 / 1.22

SHORTLIST
So many maiden hurdlers today - Ask's race is the ideal for place only backing and he will be my selection today

Curlin to place at 1.53 is decent enough

24/10

Not a bother as they say over here. Tot o Whiskey cruised home - infact all horses placed yesterday which was pleasing

Big fields at Donny today don't allow an angle in for place only betting
840 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Borderlescott, 5/2 Masta Plasta, 100/30 Peace Offering, 10/1 Senor Benny, 12/1 Baggio, 14/1 Tornadodancer, 16/1 Brave Falcon, 20/1 Copper Dock, Invincible Ash .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BORDERSLESCOTT gets the vote in race likely to be dominated by the three British-trained raiders. Somewhat bizarrely, the former Stewards Cup winner had scored only once outside handicap company (in a conditions event at Musselburgh in May) prior to his triumph in the Group 1 Nunthorpe, but he confirmed his status as one of the season's top sprinters by finishing third to Marchand D'Or in the controversial Prix de l'Abbaye.\n Masta Plasta was also in action in France last time, winning a Listed event at Chantilly. This will be his fourth visit to Ireland this term, and his victory in the prestigious Rockingham Handicap at the Curragh suggests a clear edge over the home-defence here, since those behind then included Senor Benny, Baggio and Brave Falcon.\n The very durable Peace Offering has been astutely campaigned this season. It did not look a strong Listed event in which he beat Siren's Gift at Newmarket at the beginning of the month, but he almost certainly retains enough abilty to take a share of the money.

Quite a coup for the track I would say and Borderlescott looks decent place only material 2.74 / 1.24

FAKENHAM begins with a conditional jockeys selling handicap hurdle - YIKES! North Walk is the one for early support but only for the brave!

315
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Postmaster, 11/4 Haddaaf, Little Al, 12/1 Standing Order, 33/1 Bijou Love, Harlaxton, 50/1 Feeling Peckish, Seattle Spy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little Al is interesting on his first run over hurdles but POSTMASTER has done well since joining Evan Williams and can make it two wins on the bounce.

Standing order out which emphasises the increased chances of the first 3 in what looks a probability race

Postmaster Donal Fahy » £0.00	2.46
1 Haddaaf Noel Fehily » £0.00	3.65
5 Little Al Dominic Elsworth » £0.00	3.4

Postmaster Donal Fahy » £0.00, £0.00	1.11
1 Haddaaf Noel Fehily » £0.00, £0.00	1.16
5 Little Al Dominic Elsworth » £0.00, £0.00	1.23

350
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Scots Dragoon, 9/2 First Feerie, The Good Guy, 11/2 Creinch, 7/1 Mutual Respect, 8/1 Monzon .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very capable hurdle recruits The Good Guy and First Feerie are respected, but they lack the chase experience of the useful SCOTS DRAGOON, who dismissed a similar field impressively last week

8/1 the outsider and 2 the place - we really have to be spot on with these 2.08 \ 1.32

SANTA ANITA

Breeders Cup meeting begins this evening
955
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Stardom Bound, 9/2 Sky Diva, 8/1 Dream Empress, 10/1 C S Silk, Pursuit Of Glory, 14/1 Doremifasollatido, 16/1 Persistently, 20/1 Be Smart, Evita Argentina, 25/1 Palacio De Amor, 33/1 Van Lear Rose, 50/1 Black Magic Mama, Dave´s Revenge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Stardom Bound is the obvious choice but offers no value. I'm going to split my bet between Be Smart and PURSUIT OF GLORY, giving slight preference to the Irish filly.

Going purely on the market, Stardom bound of interest? 2.74 / 1.32

1115
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Zenyatta, 15/2 Cocoa Beach, 8/1 Carriage Trail, Music Note, 10/1 Ginger Punch, 14/1 Hystericalady, 25/1 Bear Now, 50/1 Santa Teresita .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: I just don't see ZENYATTA being beaten, but I think the value lies in betting Carriage Trail and Cocoa Beach to finish second to her in exactas.

Nice price gap here - small field but how liquid will the place markets be? 1.7 / 1.13

Not the most straightforward day

SHORTLIST

Postmaster's race must be of interest given it's still 3 the place and pronounced gap between the first 3 and the rest of the field
Postmaster here for me to place at 1.11. Given this is a probability race you could chance the others at slightly bigger prices
Zenyatta is my other pick for the day - 1.13
No, prices are rubbish but it's getting these placed that's important without a losing run and meeting daily targets

23/10

Strong coffee's race - with Wichita lineman and Hopkins out Strong coffee, in a 4 runner race paying 3 the place was a steal at 1.11 to place. 1.45 for the win was decent enough too considering 2 of the remaining opponents were originally quoted at 100/1 - a superb example of a probability bet there
Fitz Flyer 3rd for the other place - again emphasises the advantages we have in the place market - this horse should really have won but as long as he placed that was good enough for me

335 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Headline Act, 5/2 Takeover Bid, 5/1 Block Party, 8/1 Gitano Hernando, 12/1 Double Rubble, Rockfella, 14/1 Sairaam, 33/1 Carita Mia, Killmarnock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Headline Act sets the standard and should be on the premises once more, but there were plenty of positives to be taken from TAKEOVER BID's debut effort in what looked a strong race and he can find the necessary improvement with that run under his belt.

2 market leaders look good - Headline act 3rd and 2nd so positives there for place only backers - concerns? good to soft always threatens to turn soft - a lot of one time out performers open to improvement 2.22 / 1.19

240 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Astarador, 9/2 Lease Lend, 5/1 Palomar, 6/1 Crocodiles Rock, 10/1 Torkinking, 11/1 Cash Man, Raysrock, 14/1 The Shy Man, 16/1 Smart Street, 25/1 Storm Prospect, 100/1 Pendle Forest, Uncle Michael.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASTARADOR may be able to make his previous chasing experience count but this is a much sterner test than he faced on this month's chasing debut when his stylish win produced 16-1 quotes for the Arkle. Lease Lend, Palomar and Crocodiles Rock are all very interesting newcomers to chasing and that great little streetfighter Torkinking can never be ruled out when the mud is flying.

Soft ground the concern here - still nice price gap BUT biggish field and "novices"! 2.48 / 1.37

415
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Tot O´Whiskey, 9/2 Mistanoora, Nine De Sivola, 6/1 Mr Barnacle, 8/1 Harry Wood, Hockenheim, 12/1 Gritti Palace, 25/1 Sacred Mountain, 200/1 Moyne Pleasure.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nine De Sivola is the clear form on his form of two seasons back and the market will reveal what's expected on his return from a long absence. TOT O'WHISKEY is one of the obvious alternatives, having shaped as though ready for another crack at this trip when a promising second here on his chasing debut.

A MArtin Blakey bet last time, Tot O Whisky was finishing like a train but all too late to nab a victory
Sacred Mountain at 16/1 - is this a 16/1 system bet? 2.72 / 1.50

720 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Majuba, 3/1 Rublevka Star, 5/1 Bees River, 13/2 Albaseet, 8/1 Piste, Rare Art, 16/1 Fortune In Faith, 20/1 Liteup My World, 25/1 Chosen Son, 33/1 La Capriosa, 50/1 Brown Lentic, Fitz.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Majuba sets a decent standard here despite his string of defeats, but RUBLEVKA STAR travelled well for a long way on her debut and might be able to improve past him.

Albaseet is a non runner - potential probability race here with 5 horses sub 16/1 - will the race rest between these 5?

5 furlong 2 year old maiden race with Rublevka Star a market mover into favouratism BUT note the race start time - we must consult the market nearer the off 2.7 / 1.33 ( market not fully formed at 11am)

820
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Silk Hall, 8/1 Eventide, Kritzia, 9/1 Bushy Dell, 10/1 Lady Sorcerer, 12/1 China Pink, Drum Major, My Mate Max, 14/1 Blue Citadel, Ragamuffin Man, 16/1 Trenchant, 20/1 Testimonial, 33/1 Force Tradition,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a much tougher race than the one SILK HALL won at Wolverhampton last time, but he still looks well in under his penalty, 8lb lower than when his revised mark kicks in on Saturday. Eventide travelled well last time and might be the best alternative.

Eyecatching price gap here and these gaps tend to perform - currently 2/1 -a slight drift - again note the race time! 3.05 / 1.34

220 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Balzaccio, 2/1 Resounding Glory, 4/1 Elbistan, 14/1 Sparkling Montjeu, 20/1 Coole Dodger, Solar Max, 25/1 Gold Rock, 33/1 Bid Art, Sonate De La Tour, 66/1 Gainsborough´s Art, Malt Empress.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Elbistan is the pick of those with hurdling experience but he comes with risks and it's not hard to chance a newcomer, with RESOUNDING GLORY and Balzaccio the standout contenders. The latter has reportedly schooled well but Richard Fahey's inmate is a little more battle-hardened off the Flat and, a rare runner for the yard here, is narrowly preferred

Faith in the market here with a lot of debutants in this juvenile novices hurdle. King/Thornton on the market leader and Thornton has been in great form of late and is always a confident contender on a market leader despite the fact we know nothing of the horse's abilities in this sphere.Resounding glory is the other the market tells us should be involved

Balzaccio Robert Thornton » £0.00	2.4
7 Resounding Glory Richard Johnson » £0.00	3.3

Balzaccio Robert Thornton » £0.00, £0.00	1.28
7 Resounding Glory Richard Johnson » £0.00, £0.00	1.4

530
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Charles Street, 4/1 Alkar, 6/1 Potemkin, 7/1 Max Bygraves, 10/1 Fair Shake, 12/1 Ptibaby, 14/1 Diktatorship, 20/1 L´Eau Du Nil, Still Dreaming, 25/1 Kerasoun, 50/1 Raydan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHARLES STREET seemed to take very little out of himself at Fontwell last weekend and can follow up, perhaps at the expense of Alkar and Ptibaby.

Now 11/10 which is always good to see - some early market confidence

2.04 / 1.27

350 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 The Fist Of God, 6/1 King Of Queens, 8/1 Jokipur, 10/1 Mullagh Abu, 12/1 Monkhair, 14/1 Little Miss Diva, Thewritinonthewall, 16/1 Geestring, Lost In France, The Hamptons, 20/1 Brandyandginger, Grand Fella, Patriot Jack, 25/1 Libertys Day, Mr Antolini, Shewillsing, 33/1 Chew It Over, Pure Delight,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE FIST OF GOD is very hard to get away from despite the fact that he has been a beaten favourite on his first two starts over hurdles. The three-time Flat winner was unable to get to grips with the enterprisingly ridden Tellhimnow at Roscommon in August and failed to find much off the bridle when fourth to Yield For No One at Punchestown last week. \n Paul Carberry should be able to ride him with more restraint in what looks like an ordinary contest, and the ground may be less demanding than was the case at Punchestown. His best Flat form was evident on a quickish surface on turf and on the polytrack at Dundalk.\

A maiden hurdle but the Meade/Carberry connection . Screams out to be a lay given field size, soft ground, race type , but why 4/5 in an 18 runner race?

1.92 / 1.2

SHORTLIST
Chance again on Toto O Whiskey at 1.5 - now this price always raises suspicion in me as it seems too high for a market leader in a non handicap
1.5 though is welcome for a horse who should be competitive and with such a small target profit, stakes will be small the bigger the odds

I am at a disadvantage re Great Leighs - if I put something forward there and things happen between now and race time to change my views, I could be accused of after timing. Suffice to say my decisions on whether to look at Great Leighs will be taken nearer race times

22/10

Good day yesterday - so Gullible Gordon eh! How much evidence was there not to get involved in this one!
200 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lasso The Moon, 5/1 Star Links, 6/1 Antinori, 9/1 Admiral Sandhoe, Thief, 10/1 Calaloo, 20/1 North Cape, Ringo Zaar, 25/1 Carita Mia, Longboat Key, 33/1 Primo Dilettante, 40/1 Lady Meg, 66/1 Hart House, 100/1 Braishfield Lass.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these may improve further but LASSO THE MOON, who was beaten only 1l by Palavicini (placed behind Delegator then Taameer previously) at Newbury, looks a promising colt and this half-brother to Simply Perfect should go one better dropped slightly in grade

Odds on now , but another with only one run facing possible improvers
5 of the 14 runners 100/1 or bigger

Lasso The Moon T. P. O'Shea » £0.00	2
2 (9) Antinori Adam Kirby » £0.00	4.4

Lasso The Moon T. P. O'Shea » £0.00, £0.00	1.18
2 (9) Antinori Adam Kirby » £0.00, £0.00	1.52

300 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fitz Flyer, 6/1 Genipabu, 13/2 Celestial Dream, 8/1 Master Of Disguise, Sharpener, 12/1 Langland Bay, 20/1 Art Fund, Piccaso´s Sky, 25/1 Lana´s Charm, 40/1 Brown Lentic, 50/1 Billy Smart.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Celestial Dream and Genipabu are interesting newcomers and should be monitored closely in the betting but a fairly useful performance will be required to beat the 93-rated FITZ FLYER (nap)

4 runs so an experienced maiden now odds on too -is taking a pronounced drop in class here

Fitz Flyer Paul Mulrennan » £0.00	1.86
5 (3) Master Of Disguise Adam Kirby » £0.00	8.2

Fitz Flyer Paul Mulrennan » £0.00, £0.00	1.16
5 (3) Master Of Disguise Adam Kirby » £0.00, £0.00	2.12
7 (8) Celestial Dream David Probert » £0.00, £0.00	2.12

240 GREAT LEIGHS

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wajaha, 4/1 Furious Belle, 5/1 Natural Flair, Persian Memories, 11/2 Charlotte Point, 14/1 Kiyari, 25/1 Mill Pond, Veiled, 100/1 Cobos.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Well-bred WAJAHA hails from a stable finishing the season with a flourish and can fulfil her debut promise. Furious Belle and Persian Memories are feared most.

Another maiden -natural flair a non runner makes life easier - not run on an articficial surface

	Wajaha R. Hills
» £0.00

2.28

	Wajaha R. Hills
» £0.00, £0.00

1.28

550 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Celtic Rebel, 6/1 Claphands, Tillers Satisfied, 7/1 Rainbow Seeker, 8/1 Imaginary Diva, Kayceebee, 12/1 Anacaona, Miss Thippawan, Silver Salsa, True Britannia, 16/1 Drachenfels, Imperial Skylight.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: More questions than answers here, with two of the more obvious contenders in Tillers Satisfied and Claphands drawn out wide, and the market should help sort things out. From stall 10 it could be worth going with CELTIC REBEL, who's probably capable of better than he's shown to date

Celtic Rebel 15/8 ? If accrate, that's some confidence in a tight handicap - Tillers a non runner

Celtic Rebel Pat Cosgrave

» £0.00

3.15

Celtic Rebel Pat Cosgrave

» £0.00, £0.00

1.51

720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Isabelonabicycle, 4/1 Mvuto, 6/1 Ibrox, 8/1 Lazeyma, Silver Surprise, 10/1 Upstart, 12/1 War Anthem, 33/1 Shipboard Romance, 50/1 Enjoy The Mood, Generous Star, Wrecker´s Moon.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many of Andrew Balding's win on debut and Isabelaonabicycle holds obvious claims on last month's C&D second, while Mvuto's yard is going better than at the time of her two runs in the summer. However, IBROX brings a couple of fair handicap efforts off 65 to the table and is preferred in a typically weak late-season maiden

Another one time out performer - Ibrox a non runner

	Isabelonabicycle Martin Dwyer
» £0.00

2.06

	Isabelonabicycle Martin Dwyer
» £0.00, £0.00

1.18

820
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Otaared, 5/1 Baby Houseman, 10/1 Barney McGrew, Bazroy, Lindoro, 12/1 Kirk Michael, Transfer, 16/1 Il Grande Maurizio, Jeninsky, Royal Intruder, 20/1 Hinton Admiral, 25/1 Markab, 33/1 Salient,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent handicap that should be run at a fair gallop, and the one that appeals most is the progressive and unexposed OTAARED (nap), who opened his account this month in a race that threw up winners. Although lacking in AW experience for this handicap debut, his pedigree suggests he should relish the surface. At bigger odds Bazroy is one to keep an eye on back at this track

14 runner class 3 - so quite good quality - nice price gap - fav unraced on this surface

Otaared Philip Robinson

» £0.00

2.84

	Otaared Philip Robinson
» £0.00, £0.00

1.42

850
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Margot Mine, 8/1 Artistic Light, Lights Of Vegas, Turkish Sultan, 12/1 Anduril, First Tracks, Goose Green, Pembo, 16/1 Hollywood George, Ma Ridge, Moorside Diamond, Telephonist, 25/1 Follow The Buzz, Zazous.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several unreliable sorts and infrequent scorers on show. Given she's won three of her 16 starts and is unpenalised for last week's Great Leighs victory, MARGOT MINE gets the nod from her high draw

Hint of a price gap but 25/1 outsider tells us this is tight

	Margot Mine T. P. O'Shea
» £0.00

4.2

	Margot Mine T. P. O'Shea
» £0.00, £0.00

1.66

220 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Wichita Lineman, 7/2 Strong Coffee, 4/1 Hopkins, 8/1 Orphelin Collonges, 20/1 Loch Vic, 25/1 The Bay Bridge, 100/1 My Friend Paul, Ortega.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WICHITA LINEMAN wasn't far off top class as a staying hurdler and it'll be disappointing if his quality doesn't prove decisive on this fairly kind chase introduction. Hopkins and Strong Coffee can fill the placings.

Wichita lineman non runner - check that still 3 the place

Hopkins Richard Johnson » £0.00	2.5
6 Strong Coffee Dominic Elsworth » £0.00	2.94
4 Orphelin Collonges T. J. O'Brien » £0.00	6.6

Hopkins Richard Johnson » £0.00, £0.00	1.3
6 Strong Coffee Dominic Elsworth » £0.00, £0.00	1.29
4 Orphelin Collonges T. J. O'Brien » £0.00, £0.00	1.6

A lot of maidens today.

It is a difficult day today but it is with the latter race that I will stick - with Wichita out, the betting forecast shows this should involve strong coffee and Hopkins
Again chase debutants which is offputting over such a long distance - I will chance Strong coffee to place here based on the fact he has had a run out this season and is a course and distance winner - Hopkins 188 days off
300 BATH -Fitz flyer looks another shortlister

21/10

Earcomesannie won, but I chickened out

210 Exeter
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Gullible Gordon, 4/1 Tricky Trickster, 8/1 Job One, 10/1 Bump In The Night, 14/1 I´Moncloudnine, 16/1 Might As Well, 20/1 Cool Friend, Glenda Hoddle, 25/1 Cresswell Ruby, 33/1 Call Me Sir, Golly, 66/1 I´Mtheluckyone, Sea You Madame, 100/1 He Be Cornish, See You Again.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pointing recruit Tricky Trickster warrants respect having joined a leading yard but it will take a decent performance to turn over GULLIBLE GORDON (nap), who has already shown a pleasing level of form over hurdles and is rated a nice long-term prospect by the Nicholls team.

Are you feeling lucky punk? fancy backing a Nicholls hot pot in 15 runner amateur riders novices hurdle on good to soft over 2 miles 7 furlongs ? No? 1.96 / 1.16

310
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Straw Bear, 7/4 Pasco, 6/1 Sir Harry Ormesher, 10/1 Gauvain, 14/1 Or Bleu, 16/1 Mount Oscar, 20/1 Rodrigo Gonzales, 100/1 Knapp Bridge Boy, Major League, Sironi.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Straw Bear will be the main focus of attention but all his best days over hurdles came on flat tracks and he's no certainty, even with an error-free round. PASCO looks nailed on to raise his game over fences and, with the Nicholls team banging in winners all over the shop, he rates a decent alternative to the likely favourite

Good old fashioned Walsh v McCoy - both have had some spectacular tussles in the past - possible 4 runner race here - 3 the place BUT this is a beginners chase ( clue in the title!)

Pasco R. Walsh » £0.00	2.72
10 Straw Bear A. P. McCoy » £0.00	2.98

Pasco R. Walsh » £0.00, £0.00	1.3
10 Straw Bear A. P. McCoy » £0.00, £0.00	1.4

340
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Tother One, 3/1 Gone To Lunch, 4/1 Spare Cash, 13/2 Khasab, 20/1 Overclear, 50/1 Fort Of Gold, 100/1 Howdy Cloud, Rock Captain.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE TOTHER ONE went a long way over hurdles last season and there's good reason to expect even more from him in this discipline. Not that this is a soft opener by any means, as Gone To Lunch has the form to push him close and both Spare Cash and Khasab are also bred to come into their own over fences.[AWJ]

Another probability bet ? 8 runners and the market has only 4 runners sub 20/1 who should be the ones to fight out the 3 places 1.65 / 1.18

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Piccolo Mondo, 3/1 Baron Otto, 7/2 Test Match, 7/1 Bea Menace, 8/1 Young Dottie, 14/1 Co Dependent, Pokfulham, 20/1 Bari Bay, Diktalina, 33/1 Black Skirt, Lois Darlin, 50/1 Romancingthestone, 100/1 Red Dagger.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The stronger of the two divisions. BARON OTTO got bogged down in the soft at Warwick last time but had previously shaped well in a much better race than this on his debut at Newbury and is worth another chance. Test Match and Piccolo Mondo can prove his main rivals

Baron Otto a non runner -will this open it up to test match and Piccolo Mondo from a palce only perspective - Test match now 7/4 in reaction to the non runner 2.7 / 1.34

220 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mezenah, 6/1 Shaaridh, 7/1 Hometown, 8/1 Spirit Of Dubai, 9/1 Bombina, 12/1 Tomintoul Star, 20/1 Precious Secret, 25/1 Alimarr, Pinkalicious, 33/1 Admiring Glances, 50/1 My Girl Jode, 66/1 Blessing Belle, Bourn Fair.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MEZENAH sets a useful standard on her Leicester second and can maintain the stable's resurgence. Spirit Of Dubai may be the best each-way alternative

Good price gap but a 2 year old maiden - only one run - 5 debutants - 7 horses only had one run and open to improvement 1.64 / 1.14


SHORTLIST
PASCO 1.3 ( 310pm) - Nicholls/Walsh should place ( Spotlight tells us the horse is nailed on for improvement)
THE TOTHER ONE (340pm) - probability bet this one

20/10

That's maidens for you - Manchestermaverick's race won by drifter Isobellas fancy! but no great concern as Woolcombe folly won for my loss retrieval bet. I will update all of the compunding at week end
Interesting in Shoremaster's race - Royal rationale a non runner, Shoremaster a non runner - surely then Postmaster was the obvious place only candidate?

350 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Earcomesannie, 7/2 Le Forezien, 7/1 Left Hand Drive, 10/1 Celtic Son, 14/1 Duke Of Stradone, 20/1 Mortar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EARCOMESANNIE (nap) has found a relatively weak affair in her bid to follow up her comfortable C&D success and she probably has most to fear from Le Forezien, with the remainder looking less than reliable and/or having plenty to prove

Again only 2 the place but 2 clear outsiders could turn this into a probability bet.
Other negatives - long distance over jumps


That's it today!

Earcomesannie » £0.00, £0.00	1.48	1.5
Le Forezien » £0.00, £0.00	1.69	1.92

and win market is

Earcomesannie » £0.00	2.22	2.24
Le Forezien » £0.00	3.45	3.5

THis shows at this stage that there is some money for Le Forizien.IF I were to bet, they will be made by me contrasting the above midday prices with prices at the off and noting any shortening or drifting.

Apart from that, I would say a no bet day from the place only perspective

19/10

No problems from New Approach yesterday - job done at 1.33 - a steal!
300 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Shoreacres, 5/1 Postmaster, 8/1 Royal Rationale, 16/1 Galoshes, 20/1 Digger Gets Lucky, Near The Water, 25/1 Mix N Match, Play Up Pompey, 28/1 Pacific Ocean, 33/1 Absolute Shambles, Brushford, Chances Go, 40/1 Drizzi, Pat Will, 66/1 Mine The Balance, Pittyless.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The recent form of Royal Rationale and Postmaster pales into insignificance compared to the potential of Champion Bumper fourth SHOREACRES, who should prove a decent recruit to hurdling A standout price gap here but a big field 1.78/1.19 With Royal Rationale out, this could be a straight fight between the front 2 445 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Runshan, 5/1 Pauntley Gofa, 7/1 King Diamond, 8/1 Urban Tiger, 10/1 Classic Role, Good Old Days, Zorro De La Vega, 16/1 Cheeky Lad, 25/1 Rooster´s Reunion, 33/1 Nawow. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RUNSHAN (nap) is very much on the upgrade and may well be capable of defying a hike in the handicap, possibly at the main expense of Pauntley Gofa. Doesn't interest me today this one - clas 4 - the wins have come in class 5 races - up 13 lbs - cold very well place and very progressive but might find weight a bit much? KEMPTON High class card 220 BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Maxwil, 2/1 Saticon, 7/1 Fr Dominic, 10/1 Kashmina, 14/1 Doctor Robert, Ray Diamond, 25/1 Karky Schultz, 33/1 Aim, 50/1 I Certainly May, Keepholdin, 66/1 Clovis. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Maxwil has the best hurdling form on offer but SATICON was arguably his superior on the Flat and is an interesting recruit for a trainer who is always worthy of respect in these contests Martin Blakey has told me Saticon is fancied - novice hurdle - key word being novice - and no form in this sphere for a number of horses - short price on reputation of Choc Thornton and Alan King Ruby on Maxwil 1.82/1.17 325 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Woolcombe Folly, 5/1 Levera, 7/1 Maslak, Oceana Gold, 12/1 Desert Abbey, 20/1 Fire And Rain, 100/1 Princely Ted. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Levera, Maslak and Oceana Gold are all open to improvement but WOOLCOMBE FOLLY will be a tough nut to crack. I like those words " a tough nut to crack" -decent price gap but, yes you're ahead of me I hope - only 2 places in this sub 8 runner event 1.93 / 1.34 Money for Oceana Gold but I might be enticed by the 1.34 (against my better judgement - should really stick to 8 runners and 3 places!) 435 KEMPT BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Katchit, 5/1 Snap Tie, 7/1 Sporazene, 8/1 Katies Tuitor, 9/1 Pigeon Island, 25/1 Alph, 200/1 Petrosian. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Champion Hurdler KATCHIT is unlikely to be fully wound up at the start of a long campaign but he would be giving all of his rivals 14lb or more if this was a handicap and cannot be realistically opposed. Katies Tuitor is the suggestion for the forecast Yes, another 7 runner 2 the place race, but hey this is Katchit ( not to be confused with Cat Shit ) 1.69 / 1.27 A big price relatively for the place but that could be becuase its only 2 the palce 140 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: Evs Manchestermaverick, 5/2 My Mate Mal, 7/1 Isabella´s Fancy, 12/1 Vogarth, 14/1 Rub Of The Relic, 20/1 Lechero, 25/1 Sheik´N´Knotsterd, 66/1 Avatea, Frill A Minute, Savanna´s Gold, Ugly Betty. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hughie Morrison has a healthy level-stake profit at the track and although MANCHESTERMAVERICK has yet to reward his backers' faith, he won't be found many better opportunities than this to get off the mark. A couple of places and a chance for the fav to place at least again in what looks like a 3 horse race ( barring any market moves which might be prevalent in a maiden race) 1.94/1.29 SHORTLIST Will include MAnchestermaverick in the hope the horse places again ( 140pm), Shoreacres ( 3pm) because of Royal Rationale's absence, Woolcombe Folly ( 325pm) and Katchit( 435pm) Again, stop at a winner to start with Manchestermaverick. If he doesn't place, then I will move to next horse ONLY if I am happy with the live market conditions as this will be loss retreival mode - I might even move to a footy game as with loss retreival I don't want to go more than 1 without a winner Check out footy at www.soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com Research the key yesterday - Liverpool bet had to be changed with Amir Zaki in the squad and playing - I was told he would be absent and Benitez read my blog and decided to play Kuyt upfront instead of on the wing thus allowing him to actally score goals!

18/10

Earth Planet a nose 3rd - very frstrating - but lesson learned - 6 runner field only pays 3 the place - I should focus on 8 runners as an ideal.
Loss retrieval then on Popeil who placed and I personally followed up with Caheresdotcom who placed 3rd.
BUSY DAY TODAY
Catterick
410
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Goliaths Boy, 5/2 Madam´X, 8/1 Dillenda, Molesden Glen, 10/1 Blue Noodles, 12/1 Great Charter, Solis, 16/1 Strevelyn, 33/1 Mull Of Fire, 66/1 Le Petit Vigier.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Madam X has obvious claims given the record of her yard here, but she faces a tough opponent in GOLIATHS BOY and he can carry on the good recent run of his yard

Taken by Goliath Boys live market price of 5/6 - significant? Class 6 maiden - 10 runners - 1 non runner - 3 to place - 1.86/1.11
3 debutants bt they are priced to be not competitive today
2 outsiders at 66/1 and 80/1 shouldn't figure at the business end
Fav has been placed in class 4 and class 5 - this is class 6.
Negatives - Jockey is 6% strike rate for the trainer with 2 year olds which is a poor %
Good to soft ground - what chance it turns soft?

But i ask - why 5/6?
400 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Simondiun, 5/2 Indian Pipe Dream, 9/2 Strong Rebel, 5/1 Valerius, 9/1 Arnold Layne, 10/1 Diablo, 11/1 Cullahill, 50/1 Sterling Moll, 100/1 Another Conker, 150/1 Roseville.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INDIAN PIPE DREAM is finally translating something akin to his old useful Flat form to hurdles and, with more possibly to come, may be able to confirm latest Newton Abbot placings with Simondiun, despite that horse being weighted to reverse things with a 5lb pull. Unbeaten Strong Rebel is a very interesting recruit to hurdles worthy of considerable respect too

The big boys take up positions 1 and 2 in the ebtting forecast - 3 horses at 250/1 or bigger reduce the competitive field down to 7 - 3 to place meaning only 4 horses to beat to place for the shortlisters!
The first 4 in the early market are the first 4 in the ebtting forecast so it's a case of selecting one of those 4 to place!

Simondiun » £0.00	3.55
Indian Pipe Dream » £0.00	4.1
Valerius » £0.00	5.9
Strong Rebel » £0.00	7.2

imondiun » £0.00, £0.00	1.5
Indian Pipe Dream » £0.00, £0.00	1.55
Valerius » £0.00, £0.00	1.87
Strong Rebel » £0.00, £0.00	2.08

The difficulty of the task is borne out by shortest priced 1.55 to place



255 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Gluteus Maximus, 11/4 Vilasol, 8/1 Lough Mist, 12/1 Law Officer, 14/1 Kilmagner, 25/1 Tesir, 33/1 Watch The Flame, 50/1 Amazing Hyde.

O'Brien/Heffernan jolly here - offputting is the ground conditions and the fact that Ireland is a palce where odds on shots find difficulty in winning - 1.96 / 1.19

510 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Tuscan Evening, 4/1 Thoroughly Red, 6/1 Zarilan, 10/1 Gratified, Karma Lina, Super Sophie, 12/1 Andre Mon Ami, Aughcarra, 14/1 Cullenstownstrand, Surfer Girl, Talkin Kate, 20/1 Liberta, 25/1 Here Comes Billy, Our Swallow, 33/1 Labasheeda, Mystic Honey, 50/1 Milloaks, Rio Rouge,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Famous last words possibly, but TUSCAN EVENING is close to unopposable if capable of producing her best. One of the better 2yo maidens around last season, she showed herself to be amongst the better 3yo fillies around when running a huge race in the Irish 1,000 Guineas back in May. Her demotion to fourth place led to a very protracted appeal which ultimately failed and she was unable to run up to that level in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot subsequently, but this race represents a massive drop in class. In addition, she was a close third in the Debutante Stakes on testing ground as a 2yo, so her ability to handle this ground is not in question. It would be a huge shock if there was anything good enough to beat her in this race.\n

18 runner 1 mile maiden in soft to heavy bt the highlighted words interest me as a place only player 2.44/1.35

240 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Doeslessthanme, 4/1 Pakineo Des Pictons, Son Of Flicka, 10/1 Tiraaz To Carbury, 14/1 Border Reiver, 25/1 Adieu Mari, Linda´s Theatre, Newsham Glory, 33/1 Crystal Witch, Grand Union, Putitawayforayear, 66/1 Cross The Palm, Ella Maccadella, Formby, Miss Colima, Water Music.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Howard Johnson has already introduced some nice prospects this season and DOESLESSTHANME looks another, as the form of his latest bumper win at Doncaster was given an almighty boost when the second went one better next time in the Grade 2 at Aintree on Grand National day. Son Of Flicka is a solid alternative

Odds on in an 18 runner race always catches the eye and the look of the betting forecast shows perhaps this will really concern the first 3 ( stretching to first 5 ) in the betting

Doeslessthanme » £0.00	1.97
Son Of Flicka » £0.00	5.1
Pakineo Des Pictons » £0.00	6.8
Border Reiver » £0.00	15.5
Tiraaz To Carbury » £0.00	20

Doeslessthanme » £0.00, £0.00	1.21
Son Of Flicka » £0.00, £0.00	1.47
Pakineo Des Pictons » £0.00, £0.00	1.59
Border Reiver » £0.00, £0.00	2.24
Tiraaz To Carbury » £0.00, £0.00	3.6

Absence to overcome for this one - 8 of the 16 are 50/1 or bigger which perhaps lessens the task of the main protagonists placing, and like the earlier race mentioned it may be a matter of selecting the right one from the front 3 to place

315
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Kalahari King, 7/4 Bywell Beau, 9/1 Summer Soul, 14/1 Industrial Star, 16/1 Cast Iron Casey, 20/1 Lord Samposin, 33/1 Hurricane Basil, Island Key, 40/1 Spivitus, 50/1 Athollbrose, 66/1 Frith, Witch Power.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KALAHARI KING and Bywell Beau are miles clear of the rest on hurdles form but the latter, admirable sort though he is, had dramatic shortcomings as a novice chaser last term thanks to his tendency to jump right.

Beginners chase - the clue is in the title! Looks for al the world like a 2 horse race and it is a matter again of picking the right one of these 2 to place 1.87/1.22

235 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rip Van Winkle, 9/2 Ashram, 7/1 Delegator, 10/1 Soul City, 12/1 Huntdown, Shaweel, 20/1 Finjaan, Lord Shanakill, 25/1 Intense Focus, 33/1 Ouqba, 66/1 Galpin Junior, 200/1 Prime Delivery, 250/1 Egypt.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ante-post prices offered about Rip Van Winkle looked ridiculously short for a relatively unproven colt, especially with Aidan O'Brien having won with only one of the 11 2yos he has run in Britain this year, and there are attractive each-way alternatives. SHAWEEL looks overpriced on his Group 1 second in Ireland and it be unwise to write down the form following Mastercraftman's excusable subsequent failure. Shaweel has had a good break since and may prove too good for Ashram.[

Highly competitive and as we saw with Laddies Poker 2 yesterday, short priced favs can get turned over because in these quality fields all horses merit consideration.
O'Brien/Murtagh horse the only saving grace but look at the number of 1's in the form column for all horses 2.98 / 1.65 - the place price tells you all you need to know!¬

310
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 New Approach, 4/1 Russian Cross, 6/1 Twice Over, 13/2 Pipedreamer, 12/1 Linngari, 14/1 Traffic Guard, 20/1 Hebridean, 33/1 City Leader, 40/1 Full Of Gold, 100/1 Staying On, 500/1 Upton Grey.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: French-trained horses have a fine record in this race over the years and Russian Cross is an interesting contender now tackling Group 1 company for the first time, but a peak-form NEW APPROACH will be hard to beat. The Derby winner has not been at his very best either start since his return from his enforced mid-season break but he still got the job done in the Irish Champion when beating Traffic Guard and this track clearly suits him well. Linngari and Pipedreamer are the pick of the remainder

Standout fav has served me well in the past. 2.5 / 1.33

500
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Unsung Heroine, 9/4 Dar Re Mi, 9/2 Crystal Capella, 7/1 Shreyas, 12/1 Under The Rainbow, 20/1 Saphira´s Fire, 25/1 Armure, 33/1 Perihelion, 50/1 Sail.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There may be more to come from Leger runner-up UNSUNG HEROINE and she is preferred to Dar Re Mi who was not quite at her best when third at Longchamp a fortnight ago and has had a tough season. Crystal Capella, who is chasing a five-timer, and Shreyas, who will be suited by the step up in trip, should not be discounted either

3 horse race - again which of the 3 will be a nailed on placer?May be unsung heroine for me, and one of the competitors is chasing a 5 timer -and sequentially it will be increasingly more difficult to win

Unsung Heroine » £0.00	2.52
Crystal Capella » £0.00	4.2
Shreyas » £0.00	6.2

Unsung Heroine » £0.00, £0.00	1.3
Crystal Capella » £0.00, £0.00	1.56
Shreyas » £0.00, £0.00	1.87

SHORTLIST
New Approach at 1.33 should give a good account (310pm)
Tuscan Evening -1.35 - extreme confidence from Spotlight and a horse with proven form taking a whopping drop in class - yes big field and soft to heavy ground but this one should be a cut above (510pm)
Unsung Heroine - looks a 3 horse race - opposing Crystal Capella based on fact horse has won 4 and sequentially is due to lose a race (off at 5pm)
Goliath's Boy - looks good to place - drawn by the confidence in the market. (goes off 410pm)


New Approach will be my first selection - if the horse places I will stop for the day. If unplaced I will continue like yesterday on the loss retrieval

17/10

Easy compounding profits on Audemor deapite the poor price. The 520 -well I warned to check the market and that was proven with the winner being na classic 16/1 system bet, backed in from 16/1 into 8/1 and winning well. The power of highlighting gambling races ( bumpers) and following the market near the off
220 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Earth Planet, 4/1 Dragon Eye, Paddleyourowncanoe, 8/1 Ceasen Desist, 25/1 Ace Of Clubs, 100/1 Pairc Na Gcapall.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EARTH PLANET would appeal even more on a slower surface than forecast, but he still looks worth sticking with having made so much headway last spring and there's surely more to come. Paddleyourowncanoe looked good at Southwell, even allowing for the standard of opposition, and could prove most troublesome

Walsh/Nicholls on a market leader cannot be ignored 1.65/1.24

650 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Caherassdotcom, 7/2 Dawn Valentino, 6/1 Pecavi, 8/1 Gingko Lady, 14/1 Invincible Power, Tabaahi, 20/1 Redzer Gazgoff, Santo Padre, 25/1 Princess Doll, Valiant Spirit, 33/1 Locky, Step In Tune, 50/1 Sense Of Greeting, 66/1 Three Blessings,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks an unmissable opportunity for CAHERASSDOTCOM, but while he looks close to unopposable he does have one or two questions to answer.\n Firstly, he is unproven over the five furlong trip. Secondly, he was dreadfully slowly away over six furlongs here a couple of weeks ago and did remarkably well in the circumstances to be only beaten a neck in the much stronger maiden won by Keyala. He is also poorly drawn. Very much on the plus side is the fact that Johnny Murtagh is in the saddle and that his overall form is easily the best in this contest. If things fall even half-right for him in this contest he should win well

Caherassdotcom - Murtagh on board but note the Spotlight Verdict 1.99/1.26
345 nmkt
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Spacious, 5/1 Barshiba, 8/1 Classic Remark, Fragrancy, Moon Sister, Ronaldsay, 12/1 Sweet Lilly, 16/1 In The Light, Raymi Coya, 20/1 Classic Legend, 25/1 Princess Taylor.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around Spacious on her first crack at 1m2f. She has suggested that this trip should be just about within reach but her yard has not really fired on all cylinders this season and a more attractive proposition each way is FRAGRANCY who remains open to further progress at this trip. 2.98/1.5

355 redcar
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Popiel, 13/2 Forty Thirty, 7/1 Storming Sioux, 10/1 Shady Lady, 12/1 Net Value, 14/1 Distant Memories, Sinchiroka, 16/1 Neva A Mull Moment, 20/1 Top Tinker, 25/1 Pattern Mark, Swing It Ruby, 33/1 Bigalo´s Star, High Tensile, Magical Night, Murrays Magic, Prince Andjo, 50/1 Avitus, Berriedale, Indigo Belle, 66/1 Transporter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks like a good opportunity for POPIEL (nap), who turned in a much-improved performance over this trip last time and represents an in-form yard. Storming Sioux and Distant Memories look the most interesting newcomers

Big price gap here 1.98/1.21

505
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Taqdeyr, 5/1 Edmondstown Lass, 12/1 Silk Gallery, 14/1 Hitches Dubai, Liberty Ship, Morocchius, This Ones For Pat, 16/1 Pintano, 20/1 Daisys Fantasy, Dance Card, 25/1 Hansomis, 33/1 Medici Time, 50/1 Firewalker, Rosies Dawn, Tump Mac, 66/1 Little Pandora, 100/1 Avatea, Flamestone, Northgate Lodge, Yorke´s Folly.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAQDEYR will need to be sharper out of the gates over this much shorter trip, but he did really well to get competitive at Nottingham and has much more long-term potential than most of his rivals here. The exceptions could be the well-bred Silk Gallery and Brazilian import Hitches Dubai, both of whom are worth a check in the market

another price gap but another huge field 1.68/1.23

SHORTLIST

V difficult big fields in the latter 2 races! BUT why the short price in the big field
Earth planet looks obvious but only 2 places and 174 days to overcome - 2 mile 5 furlongs too!
Caherassdotcom is very interesting with Jonny Murtagh ( who is riding I think At Tipperary for Aiden O'Brien) making the trip to Dundalk in the evening - significant? We must note the comments of Spotlight but 1.26 at present ( goes off at 650 Dundalk) so need to compare price at the off for confidence - market is illiquid

Price gap on Popeil really is significant and remains in the live market, so despite the 20 runners I think I might be tempted by this one at 1.21

Earth Planet - a course and distance winner - Nicholls has won 2 of the last 3 renewals - I'll chance him at 1.24 I think as my one a day.

16/10

Normal service resumed - this loss retrieval with shorties will only work if a winner is found immediately after a loser

230 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Roman Glory, 7/2 Repealed, 9/2 Midnight In May, 8/1 Phoenix Enforcer, 10/1 Parc Des Princes, Tottie, 14/1 Celtic Commitment, 20/1 New Adventure, 33/1 Astrobrava, Buddy Marvellous, 50/1 Spring Secret, 66/1 Ain´t Talkin´.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Repealed is an interesting newcomer and should be monitored closely in the market but ROMAN GLORY, who has a BHA rating of 82 after three starts, sets a fairly useful standard and looks to be getting better with experience.

Tottie now 9/2 - worth monitoring - Roman Glory - apparently getting better with racing but, as with one yesterday, only 3 runs for a 2 year old

400

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Crusoe´s Return, 11/4 Mushtaaq, 9/2 Inquest, 6/1 Crazy About You, 8/1 Hawk Flight, 16/1 Force Tradition, 25/1 Indiana Fox, 50/1 Cadeaux Fax, 66/1 Snake Hips.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There isn't a massive amount between a few of these but Mushtaaq has had plenty of chances, while Inquest has shown his promise on soft ground. CRUSOE'S RETURN (nap), who may benefit from the step up in trip on parts of his pedigree, gets the verdict Not one for me judging by the early market - very tight at the head of the market and Crusoe now 11/4 4.1 / 1.56 - again market too tight 750 GREAT LEIGHS BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Audemar, 7/1 Captain Carnival, 12/1 Dynamo Dane, 25/1 Clerical, 33/1 Always The Sun, Wunder Strike, SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a straightforward task for AUDEMAR. It will be interesting to see which way Captain Carnival goes in the market Very obvious candidate here - 3 outsiders but only 2 places - one time only runner open to improvement? 1.28 / 1.08 2 the place - this price will change as there is 8 hours til the race is off 420 LUDLOW BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Karashar, 13/2 Shannersburg, 7/1 Coole Dodger, Joshua, Rock Me, 10/1 Force And Motion, Golden Tokyo, 14/1 Bid Art, Sherbet Lemon, 20/1 Crimsonwing, King Bathwick, 33/1 Magpie, Trempolinas, 66/1 Miss Mozart, Seconditis, SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KARASHAR disappointed last time but he'd previously shown enough on a sound surface to suggest he's very much the one to beat in this company A price gapper but I don't like getting involved in maiden hurdle favourites - it's like a flat maiden BUT over obstacles - YIKES! - 16 runners - 5 debutants 3.4 / 1.6 - tells you that this is no gimme 520 BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kielder Rise, 13/8 Shenao, 8/1 Poppy Parade, 16/1 Court Lad, Deep Squeeze, 25/1 Fleetwood Magic, Pathian Prince, Rocket Pocket. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This could develop into a fight between Shenao and KIELDER RISE, whose recent promising debut tips the scales in his favour.[JN] A bumper - these are gambling races so live market imperative really - on the bare face of it, looks betwen the front 3 Court Lad now 9/1 from 16/1 - look out for this one if the price indicates a market move - 1.18 / 1.25 places 140 NOTT BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Big Bound, 6/1 Ebiayn, Neuchatel, 7/1 Battle Hero, 10/1 Wee Giant, 14/1 Orbitor, 16/1 Blue Nymph, 20/1 Rogalt, Whatami, 25/1 Gitano Hernando, Play To Win, 50/1 Pezula, 66/1 Mythical Thrill. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Big Bound will be popular in his bid to gain compensation for an unfortunate experience on his debut but may be worth taking on at short odds with different ground a possible cause for concern. NEUCHATEL (each-way) looks a reasonable alternative Changeable ground and a big field and a one time out favourite - not a betting medium for me - too much can go wrong in ground where a juvenile hasn't experience on 1.75 / 1.18 240 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Recession Proof, 5/1 Digger Derek, 12/1 Mawjaat, Musical Maze, Security Joan, 14/1 Deal Clincher, Very Distinguished, 16/1 Hip Hip Hooray, Yeoman Of England, 20/1 Johnny Rook, Meydan Groove, Mykingdomforahorse, Tepmokea, 33/1 Kilsyth, Mekong Miss, Order Order, SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several with claims but RECESSION PROOF is ahead of the handicapper and must be hard to beat if handling this ground as well as he did Polytrack last week. Very Distinguished may be the best each-way alternative. "if handling this grond" - enough of a question mark to put me off! 3.2 / 1.42 340 BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Expresso Star, 7/1 Mr Hichens, 8/1 Blue Spinnaker, 11/1 Suits Me, 12/1 Rainbow Mirage, 14/1 Conquisto, Jaser, 16/1 Amanda Carter, Maramba, 20/1 Granston, Sahrati, 25/1 Ella Woodcock, Indicible. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent quality handicap with several which would be of real interest were it not for the presence of EXPRESSO STAR (nap), who stands out on his latest clearcut dismissal of a similar calibre field in a C&D handicap last week and will be very hard to beat if in the same form despite a 6lb penalty now On a hatrick and a 6lb penalty - priced to be comeptitive - eye catching price gap 1.74 / 1.19 SHORT LIST Expresso star is certainly priced to follow up - as a multiple handicap winner, I do tend to be keen to oppose after a concerted winning sequence. Good to doft ground - I am always concerned that the grond may soften further as the day progresses Audemar - 1.08 certainly enticing BUT 2 the place 520 LUDLOW - looked initially like a 2 horse (stretch 3) race but the possibility that Court Lad has been gambled means that potential places ( 3) will be fought out between these 4) LIVE MARKET imperative I'm afraid with bumpers so a look nearer 520 will make my mind up for me. I will go for Audemar today at 1.08 to place- to win my target profit requires £35 or thereabouts when 2% compounding on £100 bank. As this race goes off at 750, if I can achieve the 2% target elsewhere beforehand I will shelkve this, expecially if I can realise my target with a lower stake. 520 will be the race to focus on and a probable place only on the market leader Perhaps dutching the first 2? Kielder Rise 2.36 £6.00 £8.16 You are betting FOR Kielder Rise to win. You are betting FOR Kielder Rise to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £6.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £8.16. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'. Shenao 2.82 £5.00 £9.10 You are betting FOR Shenao to win. For a profit of Kielder Rise » £3.01 2.36 Shenao » £2.95 2.82 and ONLY A STAKE OF £11 compared to the £35 for Audemor!

15/10

330
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Billie Magern, 7/4 Answer Me, 15/2 Sea Cliff, 14/1 Regal Quote, 20/1 Northern Lad, 25/1 Bob Shilling, 33/1 Three Thieves.

This was the race I chose as my one a day yesterday although in hindsight AP McCoy upon a price gapper in Tempsford and the very obvious princess rainbow at 1.06 should have been more solid bets paying 3 the place

Regal Quote, 2nd, was backed into 11/2 -14/1 in the betting forecast( Northern Lad, the non runner was too big a price to affect the market) Bille Magern - 1.27 to place when I wrote ,went off at 1.48 - like MArodima the other day this is NOT a positive sign and really does emphasise the power and advantage followers of the live market have - following the live market meant NO bet there especially with only 2 places and one big market mover - I will rate as a loser for my compounding excercise
The price did stay at 1.09 for a concerted period of time with Billy MAgern in running which allowed for a trading opportunity to at least retrieve stake , but trading was not the purpose of this bet

So back to loss retrieval today - a £10 stake used by me for my 2% compounding with £100

Football looks to provide some decent options for the loss retrieval today

400 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Calligrapher, 4/1 Global City, 8/1 Spanish Baron, 10/1 Blown It, Countrywide City,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CALLIGRAPHER has 6lb and more in hand all round going by official figures and it's likely there's improvement left, so he's clearly the one to beat in the absence of Glamorous Spirit.[GW]

Decent price gap, but like yesterday 2 the place allows for NO error and the live market must be consulted with these 2 the placers for any drift in price between time of writing and the off

Calligrapher » £0.00	1.73
Global City » £0.00	4.5

Calligrapher » £0.00, £0.00	1.28
Global City » £0.00, £0.00	1.84

410 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Tagula Blue, 4/1 Malakiya, Nayodabayo, 16/1 Just Like That, 20/1 Willies Way, 25/1 Bobdaman, Chunky Lad, 40/1 Barati, Kanisorn, Missie Geore, Mythical Air, Shingle Street, Trackattack, 50/1 Bold Trump, 100/1 Ar An Shron.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This revolves around TAGULA BLUE who was beaten only 8l in this year's Coral Cup and, admittedly after some disappointments in the interim, showed enough on the Flat in August and September to suggest that he is the one to be on at this low level. Malakiya and Nayodabayo are the other principals

Now at evens, 9 of the 14 runners are 33/1 or over and looking at the betting forecast , it looks between the front 3 in the betting.

WIN ONLY

Tagula Blue » £0.00	2.06
Nayodabayo » £0.00	6
Malakiya » £0.00	6.2
Willies Way » £0.00	14.5
Bobdaman » £0.00	25

PLACE ONLY

Tagula Blue » £0.00, £0.00	1.27
Nayodabayo » £0.00, £0.00	1.66
Malakiya » £0.00, £0.00	1.76
Willies Way » £0.00, £0.00	2.92
Bobdaman » £0.00, £0.00	4.5

440
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 I´m The Decider, 4/1 Creinch, 5/1 Oscar Jack, 7/1 Arumun, 12/1 Et Maintenant, 14/1 Breiz Dream´s, Past Heritage, 16/1 Shampers.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: I'M THE DECIDER is going the right way as a chaser and, with more to come and conditions to suit, he ought to be up to exploiting this low turnout. Creinch rates the most likely threat

8 runners down to 6 - need to check if Betfair still pays out 3 the place cos this would be a good race to look at

WIN ONLY

Im The Decider » £0.00	2.82
Oscar Jack » £0.00	4.3
Creinch » £0.00	5
Arumun » £0.00	7.8
Breiz Dreams » £0.00	14.5
Shampers » £0.00	29

PLACE ONLY

Im The Decider » £0.00, £0.00	1.31
Oscar Jack » £0.00, £0.00	1.62
Creinch » £0.00, £0.00	1.58
Arumun » £0.00, £0.00	1.97
Breiz Dreams » £0.00, £0.00	3.2
Shampers » £0.00, £0.00	5.2

THis race does pay out 3 the place but it is a tightish place only market considering just 3 horses of the 6 will place.

420 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Mhilu, 6/1 Bow School, 13/2 Ten Carat, 8/1 Terenzium, 10/1 Daraybad, 20/1 Gamma Velorum, 25/1 Spirit Of Ecstacy, The Ice Bar, 40/1 Comeintothespace, 66/1 Bronze Dancer, Dance Sauvage, 100/1 Mckinneys, Park Lodge, 200/1 Pleasure Pursuit.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to look beyond MHILU (nap), who lost nothing in defeat over a trip that was on the sharp side for him last time and should cope whatever the ground is like. One-time good Flat stayer Ten Carat may pose most problems

Another big price gap here - AP McCoy did the job yesterday on another price gapper - 8 of the 14 runners are 33/1 or bigger - 6 are 66/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted

WIN ONLY

Mhilu » £0.00	1.71
Bow School » £0.00	7.2
Ten Carat » £0.00	9.6

PLACE ONLY

Mhilu » £0.00, £0.00	1.17
Bow School » £0.00, £0.00	1.72
Ten Carat » £0.00, £0.00	2.02

McCoy has a general 25% strike rate here - wins 1 in 4

SHORTLIST
Calligrapher is interesting BUT only pays out 2 the place- any evidence to back this one? Well the fav in this race has not won for the last 3 times this race has run - sequencially this will change soon? Won well last time over a well regarded horse and 7 lengths clear of 3rd place

NEGATIVES - only this 2 year old's 3rd run - still learning?

410 UTTOXETER sees Tagula Blue BUT the other 2 might be of interest to place at higher prices in a race which looks a 3 way battle. I would advise live market monitoring but if forced would simply put Tagla Blue up to place at 1.27 out of the 3 at this stage,
If wanting to get a bigger price, I would look to see who was better backed out of Nadayobayo and Malikya sing Betfair's graphs and contrasting the place only price here in the blog (midday) and just before the off

440 UTTOXETER - paying out 3 the place BUT only 6 runners - so placed horses only need to beat 3 to place. Can we be adventurous here - Creinch is mentioned in Spotlight at 1.58 to place, compared to Decider's 1.31

420 WETHERBY
Mhilu -price gap remains and AP McCoy on board - forecast firm ground is a worry.

MHILU would be m,y one a day today 1.17 to place - like yesterday make a note of this price and compare it to the price at the off - if significantly bigger at the off then NO bet. General rule of thumb I have noticed? - if there is a 0.20 point increase, the horse is layable - MArodima 1.27 and 1.48 at the off - unplaced and yesterday's unplaced.

ALTERNATIVES

Football today wees a lot of shorties on board including England away to Belarus at 1/3
Portugal at 1.12 are very enticing from the compounding loss retrieval perspective
Croatia at 1.03 at home - halftime/fulltime is 1.09 against Andorra - 1.23 for over 2.5 goals. The latter would be my choice £55 will win back my lost £10 stake from yesterday and £2.65

14/10

The 2 highlighted races produced places for the market leaders and perhaps I was a bit over cautious
300 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tempsford, 9/2 Inmate, 5/1 She´s Humble, 6/1 Pharanto, 8/1 Happily Ever After, Lady Roania, 14/1 Gemini Storm, 25/1 Brahms And Mist.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All of these have something to prove on one count or another. Tempsford is probably the most likely winner but he's not one to be taking shortish odds about and perhaps HAPPILY EVER AFTER can take a big step forward now faced with fences

One outsider here who can hopefully be discounted - 8 runner race - 3 the place - Tempsford looks a likely place candidate - price gap still remains in the live market - AP on board 2.68 and 1.37 the place

330
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Billie Magern, 7/4 Answer Me, 15/2 Sea Cliff, 14/1 Regal Quote, 20/1 Northern Lad, 25/1 Bob Shilling, 33/1 Three Thieves.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BILLIE MAGERN (nap) probably bumped into something quite useful at Southwell and he can take care of Answer Me

Down to 6 runners - looks a 2 horse race ( 3 at a stretch) - 2 the place - which of the market leaders will place?

Billie Magern » £0.00	1.94
Answer Me » £0.00	2.98

Billie Magern » £0.00, £0.00	1.27
Answer Me » £0.00, £0.00	1.42

430
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ocean Du Moulin, 4/1 Ladino, Lyes Green, Scots Dragoon, 11/2 Commemoration Day, 200/1 Snitton Salvo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If okay over the fences then LYES GREEN should be capable of troubling Ocean Du Moulin on these terms, as Oliver Sherwood's inmate had a bit of class about him over hurdles when on his game.

i include here as a race I would avoid if contemplating the fav to place - 2 the place and 3 horses in close proximity who are priced to be competitive - 3.8 and 1.97 -

140 LEIC - GOOD TO SOFT AT LEICESTER - MAY TURN SOFT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES?
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Emirates Roadshow, 4/1 Dancourt, 9/2 Bravo Echo, 8/1 Prohibition, Takeover Bid, 10/1 Barbarian, 12/1 Alpha Tauri, 16/1 Kiwi Moon, 20/1 Devil To Pay, 25/1 King Of Defence, 33/1 Night Knight, 66/1 Shy Prophet, 100/1 Billy Smart, Timbaa.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market suggested better was expected of Alpha Tauri, Bravo Echo and Prohibition on their debuts so no surprise if they can better those efforts while Dancourt and Takeover Bid are interesting newcomers, but the percentage call is EMIRATES ROADSHOW to provide Godolphin with yet another winner in their current purple patch

Interesting race - Prohibition has come for money - Godolphin have been solid this season - Frankie on the fav - 5 horses at 40/1 or over - a number of debutants and I wont chance this one to place

Emirates Roadshow » £0.00	2.78
Prohibition » £0.00	5.5

Emirates Roadshow » £0.00, £0.00	1.37
Prohibition » £0.00, £0.00	1.93

210
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Al Marmoom, 7/2 King´s Song, 5/1 Box Office, 12/1 Play It Sam, Troubletimestwo, 14/1 Silvador, 16/1 Marju King, Mr Prolific, 25/1 Notker, 33/1 Kaiser Willie, Mister Standfast, 50/1 Ask Dan, Big Nige, 100/1 Short Sharp Shock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The weaker-looking of the two divisions and the 600,000euros purchase King's Song is an interesting newcomer, but he is likely to come into his own over much longer trips and this looks another for Godolphin with AL MARMOOM (nap) who made an encouraging debut at Newbury last month when Marju King, Kaiser Willie and Silvador were well behind

Another Godolphin favourite - hardened to 11/10 -4 debutants and a number of horses who have only had the one run and so are open to improvement - 7 of the 14 are 40/1 or greater - can we trust in these odds as being a true reflection of these horse's chances? 2.12 / 1.23

310
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Absent Pleasure, 5/2 Akhenaten, 7/1 High Alert, 10/1 Gyr, Versaki, 12/1 Indian Art, 14/1 Carnaby Haggerston, 66/1 Confucius Captain.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Form pick Akhenaten is being kept very busy and he may prove vulnerable to ABSENT PLEASURE, who is much better than his close third in a Newmarket nursery last time suggests and whose previous maiden win over Huntdown (third in Middle Park), Kingship Spirit (winner of valuable Newma