Saturday, 30 August 2008

31/8

Good day yesterday with a winner from my single selection and the other price gappers actually placing too.
Again selectivity is the key watchword here
315 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Finsceal Beo, 6/1 Beach Bunny, Deauville Vision, 8/1 Magic Carpet, Mystical Lady, 12/1 Crossing, 14/1 Glowing, 16/1 Varsity, 33/1 End Of The Affair.
I don't venture into Ireland for price gappers and with good reason - they get turned over more often than not and some don't even place.
Finscael beo, though, is a horse of some note, BUT in listed races, all horses on show are top quality and we have soft ground to contend with too

210 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Frank Street, 3/1 Peper Harow, 5/1 Smokey Ryder, 10/1 Blackwater Fort, Itshim, 16/1 Place The Duchess, 20/1 Jiggalong, 25/1 Itsher, 33/1 Rapanui Belle, Silver Salsa, 66/1 Flamboyant Red.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRANK STREET (nap), who built on a promising debut when one of three to come away at Salisbury, won't mind the return to 5f and is taken to progress past Peper Harow from a handy draw

A potential 3 horse race which should augur well for Frank Street to place until we learn its a 5 furlong maiden for 2 year olds - but the horse has progressive form of 32

440
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Perception, 5/1 Damini, 8/1 Rebounding, 10/1 Money Money Money, Silver Games, Spinning Belle, 12/1 Age Of Couture, Chic Retreat, 20/1 Dicey Affair, Golden Games, Hosanna, 50/1 Micro Chip, My Les.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PERCEPTION's form had yet another advertisement on Friday and she looks capable of opening her account. Damini is likely to prove better than she showed on her debut and may pose most problems

Price gap here but maiden fillies event and big field, 3 debutants and 7 one time outers open to improvement - live betting market key here

320 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kyber, 5/2 Danzatrice, Nero West, 10/1 Flamed Amazement, 14/1 Shankly Bond, 20/1 Pegasus Mondrianus, 50/1 Ceduna Roadhouse,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weight Nero West could be dangerous if allowed an uncontested lead, but preference is for course specialist KYBER (nap) who has scored six of his seven career wins here (one over hurdles) and is in fine heart this yea
Not really a price gap nbut a potential 3 horse race here -with Aleatrics a doubt this may leave only 2 to place which makes things tricky

350
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Predict, 5/1 Pressed For Time, 7/1 Compton Ford, 10/1 Chicken Momo, 16/1 El Bobby, 33/1 Wee Bizzom, 50/1 Future Gem,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PREDICT hasn't shown much in two nurseries but her maiden form is well in advance of anything her rivals have shown and she looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to record a second success.

A 2 year old seller here -

200 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Phoenix Des Mottes, 5/1 Isle Of Inishmore, 11/2 Winning Show, 13/2 Boxhall, 9/1 Nomad, 12/1 Joy In The Guild, The Randy Bishop, 14/1 Lets Cast Again, 16/1 Daramoon, 50/1 Bleu Reef, 66/1 Three Half Crowns.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: David Pipe won this race in 2007 with an ex-French recruit and, with none of the experienced runners particularly standing out, PHOENIX DES MOTTES could well make a successful British debut, especially if the market speaks in his favour. Isle Of Inishmore may prove best of the remainder

Conditional jockeys maiden hurdle - YIKES!

430 NA
BETTING FORECAST: Evs For One Night Only, 7/2 Lancer Scott, 9/2 Sergheyev, 14/1 Mister Wiseman, 16/1 Brigadore, 20/1 Clever Liz, Pittyless, 25/1 Exit To Side, 33/1 Chunky´s Choice,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite having not managed to improve on his debut form in two outings since, FOR ONE NIGHT ONLY basically has more potential than most of these and he shaped reasonably well on his first start over hurdles. Lancer Scott is an interesting newcomer to hurdling, while the market may prove a useful guide in assessing the well-being of Sergheyev.
Conditional jockeys maiden hurdle - YIKES!

Again plenty of perceived price gappers and I want to keep the near 100% record going with my strong selections
Nothing appeals at all with niggles in one area or the other.320 MUSS - I would consider backing the market leader in the live market to place -it may not be the betting forecast fav. I would also like to see no shorteining amongst the other horses which may signify a potential gamble
If desparate, perhaps Predict could get in the placings given we can hopefully discount the 2 ( stretching to 3) outsiders leaving the horse potentially 3 to contest a place

30/8

Time control won after a stewards enquiry but a win's a win! Nightjar 2nd at 9/4, and BAzergan won at 8/1 (the number of days off must have put punters off!)- the bar steward! Buddhist Monk - I was right to be wary of newcomers here but he wasn't beaten by the obvious one

435 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Full Toss, 3/1 Cosmic Sun, 4/1 Layer Cake, 7/1 The Kyllachy Kid, 12/1 Aladdin´s Lamp, 33/1 Nut Hand, 40/1 Bounty Reef, 100/1 Piccolo Express.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cosmic Sun - holds The Kyllachy Kid on latest running - is overdue a change of luck but he may well come off second best for the fourth time with FULL TOSS having probably the better form and being the more likely of the pair to improve
First 2 in the market have had a string of seconds in this maiden which augurs well for place only backing.
Full toss is the obvious candidate

700 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Shore Thing, 3/1 Bethanys Boy, Simba Sun, 14/1 Parkview Love, 50/1 Crosby Jemma, Feeling Peckish, Government, 100/1 Hallys Goal.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHORE THING appears to be over the problems that held him back last season and his recent hurdling form sets the standard here.

Hurdles event - obstacles to overcome - reasonable price gap bt looks a 3 horse race here which is a good thing I suppose if entertaining the place on Shore thing

300 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Supreme Being, 4/1 Anticipating, 7/1 Jacaranda, 8/1 Lesdream, 12/1 Caretta Caretta, Disco Queen, 14/1 Chunky Lad, Heir To Be, Orchard Glow, 20/1 Shanahan, 50/1 Oxybau, 100/1 Rules Apply.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Anticipating looks clear best of the home-trained runners but he's not the most resolute and it can pay to pass him over in favour of Irish raider SUPREME BEING, who has fairly useful form and has plenty more in his favour, not least the assistance of Tony McCoy
Selling hurdle here does not fill me with confidence - why are they running in sellers? ....

405
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Dark Energy, 5/1 Strong Survivor, 8/1 Party Palace, Ryedale Ovation, 16/1 Bond Cruz, 20/1 Raise Again, 25/1 Keyneema.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DARK ENERGY hardly broke sweat in cruising home at Huntingdon in the week and, with John Kington's claim going a long way to counterbalancing the penalty, he looks a good thing to go in again.[

Novice handicap hurdle with a claimer on board the favourite - eye catching price gap though BUT only 2 to place in this sub 8 runner event leaves no margin for error for place backers

440
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Yellow Flag, 5/1 Spiritual Society, 6/1 Star Of Germany, 7/1 Blandings Castle, 8/1 Et Maintenant, 10/1 Cheeky Lad, 14/1 Smoke Trail, 16/1 Rooster´s Reunion, Wild Power, 33/1 Kova Hall.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Yellow Flag could be a vulnerable favourite off his revised mark and there are some appealing alternatives. Smoke Trail hinted at a return to form last time and is back on the right ground but also interesting after a break is course specialist BLANDINGS CASTLE (nap), who has run many of his better races when fresh


Another handicap and a good price gap ( drifted in live market though but so did that 8/1 winner yesterday!) Has won 3 on the trot so unlikely (from a sequence perspective) to win again. Place material? I don't know if the added weight may catch him out

510
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 He´s The Gaffer, 4/1 Bandearg, 5/1 My Skipper, 10/1 Even Flo, 12/1 Gunnabelil, 14/1 Three Lions, 16/1 Cornish Flame, Lets Get Busy, Palace Walk, 20/1 Rich Nomad, 33/1 Bobsleigh, 50/1 Wee Danny, 66/1 Dunbell Boy, Zuleta.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: He's The Gaffer is a handicap snip on his recent chasing exploits but he has been a costly failure in the past over hurdles when seemingly thrown in and is taken on with BANDEARG, who shapes as though the longer trip could be in her favour.

A handicap with another who has woin last twice and now 3 miles 3 furlongs over obstacles - surely there'll be better alternatives?

210 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Prime Mood, 4/1 Paddythefish, 9/2 Holberg, 8/1 Bajan Tryst, 10/1 Mary Mason, 14/1 Arteus, Royal Salsa, 16/1 Shaker Style, Tee Gee Cee, 25/1 Sampower Quin, 50/1 Embsay Crag, Eyesore, Lady Zena, 100/1 Venetian Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless there's a wave of confidence behind any of the newcomers this looks best left to PRIME MOOD, who remains a colt with potential despite his shock failure at Musselburgh

7 newcomers here in this maiden who , as in Buddhist Monk's race, we simply don't know how they will perform

Plenty of potential and perceived price gappers here, but I think a bit of weeding out is necessary
Full toss would be the selection today for place only purposes - everything else has obstacles to overcome or appear in races where there are niggles













3

Friday, 29 August 2008

29/8

Bold account won, Happy anniversary won, Liberally won and Cat Patrol won

Keeps the run going but place returns are obviously shorter - d'oh! Just my luck - they all win!

220 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Time Control, 4/1 Hamalka, 6/1 Tamdiid, 10/1 Ghizlaan, 14/1 Chatanoogachoochoo, 33/1 Fleetwood Flame.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Connections will be very keen to get a win out of the beautifully bred TIME CONTROL and she looks the one to beat. Her Nottingham second reads well here and the combination of 1m4f and testing ground seemed to tax her stamina last time. Tamdiid could be the one to chase her home.[

Now 1/3 - augurs well but not to place rather to win at those odds.

Negative - maiden fillies stakes race - YIKES!

440
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nightjar, 4/1 Never Ending Tale, Prince Kalamoun, 8/1 Porthole, 10/1 Navajo Joe, 14/1 Grey Command, 16/1 Dauberval, Sweet Sara, 25/1 Bigfanofthat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nightjar has to be respected off this mark following his improved effort last time but he isn't certain to stay this far and NEVER ENDING TALE, who will relish the return to this trip, gets the nod

Nightjar - like Liberally is ahead of the handicapper - 2 seconds

NEGATIVE - untried at the trip - "stamina has to be taken on trust" Also Never ending tale and Prince Kalamoun are quite close in the betting

340 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Buddhist Monk, 7/2 Gargano, 10/1 Ozone Trustee, 20/1 Kings Maiden, 33/1 Oscar Wild, 50/1 Scanno.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BUDDHIST MONK sets a clear standard and should be very hard to beat. The Mark Johnston-trained newcomer Gargano could be the main danger and is the one to note in the market

Should win at that price shouldn't he. BUT Gargano is a newcomer installed as 2nd favourite - this may be very significant and we have good to soft ground - which again might turn soft as the day progresses

640 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Bazergan, 7/2 Star Rocker, 9/2 Wellington Square, 13/2 Special Reserve, 12/1 Streets Apart, 14/1 Watercolours, 16/1 Tignello, 20/1 Chioroscuro, Quick Flash, 33/1 Colour Trooper.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bazergan was quite highly tried on a couple of occasions last term and it remains to be seen if he confirms what he appeared to show at Newmarket. He probably wouldn't need to reproduce that form here, but STAR ROCKER, from a family that the Oppenheimers have enjoyed plenty of success with, is an interesting alternative having shaped really well on his Doncaster debu

312 days off - not for me for Bazergan

850 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Long Distance, 3/1 Scary Movie, Street Crime, 16/1 John Potts, 33/1 Alltheclews, 50/1 Royal Flyer, Spoilt Madame, 100/1 Clare Park.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LONG DISTANCE ought to be up to winning at this level, even if not fully tuned up for this belated return. Scary Movie appeals for the forecas

315 days off and a 3 horse race - 8 runner race - preference would be to place back whichever of Scary Movie or Street Crime are better backed

Time control for me is the one solid one - Long distance has 2 very close market rivals and 315 days off - Bazergan 312 days off - Buddhist monk has Gargano to worry about ( and as a newcomer he may surprise ) and Nightjar has a concern over the ground






Thursday, 28 August 2008

28/8

210 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Bold Account, 5/1 Imperial Skylight, 8/1 Wee Bizzom, 12/1 Bella´s Story, Port Ronan, 25/1 Royal Premium.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to get away from BOLD ACCOUNT who is a few steps ahead of the handicapper. Wee Bizzom could be the one for the forecast

Only problem here for a place perspective is soft ground and sub 8 runner field with only 2 to place in this class 6 nursery

310
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Happy Anniversary, 9/2 Liberty Trail, 5/1 Dean Iarracht, 8/1 Distinctive Spirit, 10/1 Jatman, Ursula, 12/1 Rising Kheleyf, 25/1 Grissom.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HAPPY ANNIVERSARY has the best form on offer and still holds an entry in the Fillies' Mile, so it will be disappointing if she cannot open her account receiving weight from all her rivals. Dean Iarracht should be thereabouts once more while Distinctive Spirit looks the pick of the newcomers

Plenty of place form for the fav ( had him last time) - soft ground again and no early market to test the confidence behind this fav

250 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Liberally, 11/2 Houri, 13/2 Seventh Hill, 7/1 Ballora, 8/1 Flam, 10/1 Politeia, 12/1 Harting Hill, Stage Acclaim, 16/1 Drum Major, 20/1 Title Role, 25/1 Clovis, Desert Thistle, 33/1 Eseej.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Speciosa's half-sister LIBERALLY (nap) looked a filly going places when successful at Bath last time and she can defy a penalty at the expense of Houri and Politeia.

"well in" says Spotlight and currently 7/4 in the live market

420
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Cat Patrol, 4/1 Chasing Amy, 7/1 Fortunate Bid, 10/1 Indian Tonic, 12/1 Kutanga, 16/1 Strike Command, 20/1 Clerk´s Choice, 25/1 Piccolinda, 33/1 May Need A Spell, 50/1 Baby Josr, 100/1 Igotim,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably the weaker division and a race which looks well within the reach of CAT PATROL, who should be helped by the step up to 6f. Chasing Amy may well prove the one to beat.

6 of the 12 are debutants - fav has had 3 runs so has experience

I am always wary about selections on soft ground but for me HAppy Anniversary and Liberally to place


Wednesday, 27 August 2008

27/8

2 from 2 yesterday and a (relatively ) big price for the place only on the selection - near 1.4! (whoopy!)

AYR - good to soft - may become soft as the day progresses

No price gappers there

320 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Let It Be, 5/1 Mcqueen, Silver Seeker, 8/1 Mr Crystal, 10/1 Abstract Folly, Dechiper, 12/1 Depraux, 16/1 Court Of Appeal, Wulimaster, 20/1 Boxhall, 25/1 Matinee Idol, 33/1 Rare Ruby .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LET IT BE, with only two wins per season previously, has already won three times this year and, having hit a rich vein of form, she could well complete a four-timer given it's very hard to pick any holes in her. Mr Crystal and Silver Seeker are the likeliest dangers, assuming McQueen doesn't translate his recent improvement over hurdles back to the Flat

Marginal price gap but of interest is the fact the horse is on a 4 timer - watch out for the market which will tell you if the winning run is expected to continue or end (drift in price) Personally a no play for me and preference for the lay if at a reasonably short price

Very quiet day with no selections from a price gapper perspective

Footy on tonight at http://soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, 26 August 2008

26/8

As to being a sorry bunch yesterday - well they all gave their running bar Eton Fables
Eton Fable who almost made all at Chester four days earlier, was denied the lead this time and endured a far from clear run. Trapped on the rail from half a mile out, he stayed on well once eventually switched into the clear, but it was all too late. He ran better than his finishing position suggests.

400 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hilbre Court, 7/2 Rankayo Hitam, 6/1 Sistos Fascination, 13/2 Hasty Lady, 9/1 The Hoofer, 12/1 Micheals Boy, 16/1 Diktat Tempo, 25/1 Royal Tartan, 33/1 Alabjar, 40/1 Harlequinn Danseur .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HILBRE COURT (nap) comes out with the best chance on adjusted BHA ratings despite conceding weight all round and he can confirm earlier Lingfield form with Rankayo Hitam

A claimer here not the ideal race type - Fav is 4/5 at present which augurs well

315 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rose Street, 13/2 Suits Me, 7/1 Granston, Kingsdale Orion, 10/1 Eglevski, 12/1 Magic Echo, Motafarred, 14/1 Veiled Applause, 16/1 Harvest Warrior, 20/1 Charlie Tokyo, Intersky Charm, 33/1 Turfshuffle .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROSE STREET went into many notebooks on her reappearance and back on turf and up in trip, she can take care of a competitive if largely exposed field. Suits Me might be the one to chase her home

Progressive form and a noticeable price gap - negatives - 3 year old handicap

Softer ground today is a negative

Probably just Rose street for me today - confirmation via the live market incase there is a drift, as was the case with Eton Fables in the place market.

Monday, 25 August 2008

25/8

BAnk holiday today after a great day on Saturday

220 Cartmel
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Maidstone Mixture, 9/2 Rivington Pike, 11/2 Galley Slave, 9/1 Ras Laffan, 12/1 Bulas Boy, Harrison´s Star, 16/1 White Ross, 20/1 Saafend Geezer, 50/1 Abbey Express .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Maidstone Mixture sets the standard but it isn't a particularly demanding one under his penalty, so it may be worth taking a flyer on something coming out of the pack to beat him. The tentative suggestion is newcomer RIVINGTON PIKE, who showed some ability on his penultimate Flat start and whose good stable do well with their hurdlers

A reasonable chance of this price gapper placing, but it is over obstacles so not top of the list

230 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Nayodabayo, 6/1 Comeintothespace, 10/1 Lady Romanov, 14/1 River Tigris, 20/1 Prince Of Aragon, Seattle Spy, 25/1 Only Hope, Trackattack, 33/1 Arctic Emperor, Galley Law, 50/1 Billy The Shifter .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This will take no winning at all and there's very little temptation to see past NAYODABAYO, who stands out on the figures and should run his race with both trip and ground just right.

Conditional jockeys selling hurdle - YIKES - 4/11 now for the favourite with the defection of the 2nd favourite. An ideal each way race really but from a place only perspective odds will be very cramped and we don't have professional jockeys on board

340
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Levera, 7/2 Silivri, 4/1 Pride Of Mine, 10/1 Putra Laju, 14/1 Mystic Storm, 20/1 Shahnameh, 33/1 Road To Recovery, 50/1 Ben Bacchus, 100/1 Crazy Bold, Malibu, Muraco, 200/1 Enlist .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alan King has come to the right venue to test LEVERA's stamina for hurdling and his class should count if seeing it out. Each-way thieves will doubtless be focusing on Pride Of Mine and Silivri.

I never back odds on shots in maiden hurdles - there are countless examples of them getting turned over so not a proposition for me despite the price gap.

415 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Taaresh, 6/1 Cozy Tiger, 10/1 Drumadoon Bay, 14/1 Arikinui, 16/1 Top Tribute, 20/1 Proficiency, 33/1 Dolly Royal, 66/1 Fell Pack, Lachafinna, 100/1 Amaretto Venture, Miss Ferney, Predictable .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Cozy Tiger having plenty to prove on this turf debut after his inauspicious return back in May, TAARESH is likely to prove very hard to beat with his debut Sandown second last month a very long way ahead of what anything else has achieved in this field

4/11 fav based on a single run in a maiden race

520
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Eton Fable, 5/2 Devinius, 7/1 Soggy Dollar, 8/1 Shaylee, 10/1 Joinedupwriting, 16/1 Manuka Bee, 25/1 Mill Beattie, Plenilune, 33/1 Doctor Delta, 66/1 Riorun .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for ETON FABLE (nap) to gain compensation for Thursday's agonising last-stride defeat at Chester. Devinius, who has to prove her stamina but got off the mark last time, and Soggy Dollar look the pick of the opposition

Progressive form for the fav and good place only material? BUT close proximity of Devinius

SOFT at Warwick.
All in all a sorry bunch today and perhaps Eton Fable is the one with lesser concerns - we have conditional jockeys sellers, and maiden hurdles and 4/11 1 time run only maidens ! YIKES

Saturday, 23 August 2008

23/8

Our acquaintance 4th, Happy Anniversary non runner, Suite Francaise 3rd, Sovereigns honour 3rd, Bonnie Charlie 2nd, and Delegator won. My only bet, Happy Anniversary was a non runner.
Perhaps some good place laying opportunities in the future? Look for sub 8 runner races (only 2 the place) , maiden races and soft ground - looks an ideal recipe if yesterday was anything to go by.
Delegator is the horse to take out of yesterday a good winner in a massive field.

BEVERLEY - soft, heavy in places is not ideal backing ground
150
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Moneycantbuymelove, 5/1 Amethyst Dawn, Izzy Lou, 6/1 Chilly Filly, 12/1 Diesis Of Cloyne, Game Roseanna, 16/1 Choral Festival, 25/1 Sardan Dansar, 33/1 Lomica, 50/1 Staceys Girl, 66/1 Amba, Le Petit Vigier, 100/1 Smoke Me A Kipper .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only a handful to consider and at the head of the shortlist is MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE, who shaped with plenty of promise on her debut and is bred to handle these softer conditions. Her trainer has a good record at this course with his juveniles and she is taken to beat Izzy Lou

Happy to lay this once raced fav at current 7/4 given ground conditions and number of debutants

430
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Vienna Affair, 8/1 Minnola, 10/1 First Swallow, Royal Degree, 16/1 Dontpaytheferryman, Onebidkintymill, Safaseef, 25/1 County Crystal, Miss Taboo, Molly Two, 50/1 Master Of Light, 100/1 Ronnies Girl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a strong race. Minnola is an interesting newcomer but this looks at the mercy of VIENNA AFFAIR, who shaped with a good deal of promise in a stronger race than this on her debut and, although not seen since, is open to plenty of progress for her in-form stable

Another maiden race over 5 furlongs on soft and a probable price gapper here but layable to win for me just because of the ground

315 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Raven´s Pass, 3/1 Bankable, 9/1 Third Set, 20/1 Docofthebay, 25/1 Dubai´s Touch .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Provided the forecast is accurate and it has stayed dry, RAVEN'S PASS is hard to get away from, his career-best latest effort when running Henrythenavigator so close over this C&D in the Sussex Stakes entitling him to win this with a bit to spare. He has had some hard races this season but there was no sign of it catching up with him last time and John Gosden must be happy with him to take this race in. Bankable is easily his most dangerous rival and fully capable of taking advantage if Raven's Pass is at anything other than his best

Ravens Pass looks good for a place here. I don't normally like price gappers in listed races but a solid set of 2's looks good for place betting today, albeit only 2 the place

335 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Duke Of Marmalade, 2/1 New Approach, 10/1 Phoenix Tower, Pipedreamer, 25/1 Multidimensional, 33/1 Cat Junior, 40/1 Rob Roy, 66/1 Stubbs Art, 100/1 Championship Point, Halicarnassus, Red Rock Canyon .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: One of those races that needs no financial involvement and is a clash of the generations to savour. Duke Of Marmalade has looked a machine this year and must be fancied to confirm his superiority over Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer but, if Papal Bull could come as close to beating him as he did in the King George, it's possible that the Ballydoyle superstar could be vulnerable to the Derby winner NEW APPROACH, whose stable took a big prize here yesterday with Lush Lashe

No ground concerns and with place only head on, the Duke looks a good proposition in what should be a 2 horse affair

445
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mawatheeq, 7/1 Dollarsmile, Ignotus, 8/1 Blessing, 9/1 I´m Sensational, 10/1 Mutawahej, Rahere, 14/1 Amaakin, Eleonora, Gaelic Dancer, 25/1 Desert Kiss, Pension Policy, 33/1 Intabih, 40/1 Flight Of Fashion, Spice Run, 66/1 Lord Of Esteem, Tomatina .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAWATHEEQ showed enough promise when second at Kempton on his debut to have prospects of going one better but there are plenty of others interesting ones, particularly hurdler Ignotus, bearing in mind what his half-sister Turbo Linn achieved for his stable on the Flat

Another price gap - another 1 time out horse in a big field maiden with a number of debutants - again layable if near evens or odds on

SHORTLIST
Duke of Marmalade stands out for me today for place only betting, and Ravens Pass to fill 1st or 2nd. My only 2 bets to keep the good 100% place run together

FOOTY AT http://soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/

Friday, 22 August 2008

22/8

2 out of 2, but I just went for the maiden who obliged, but at 4/11 after 2nd fav a non runner - ideal of course for win only rather than place only in this case. Shore thing still placed which was good

730 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Our Acquaintance, 9/2 Miss Firefly, 5/1 Towy Boy, 7/1 Our Kally, 10/1 Pennyspider, 14/1 Meridian Line, 25/1 Swindon Town Flyer .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Miss Firefly and Pennyspider act well over C&D, but they may have to settle for minor money behind OUR ACQUAINTANCE (nap), who won a shade comfortably in the hands of David Probert recently and is unpenalised in his follow-up bid.

Nice price gap - only 7 runners though so 2 the place
Good to soft ground may turn soft so needs monitoring

550 HAMILTON - SOFT GROUND AGAIN
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Positivity, 2/1 Happy Anniversary, 6/1 Hameildaeme, Miss Scarlet, 8/1 Lady Salama, 16/1 Highly Acclaimed, 50/1 Asserting, Kilsyth .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HAPPY ANNIVERSARY ran her best race on soft ground last time and look sure to make a bold bid again here, though Positivity has shaped as if very much in need of this step up to 6f on both starts so far and will be a big danger if handling the ground

02332 for Happy Anniversary similar to the maiden horse yesterday - 3 the place so a good opportunity to place again

750
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Suite Francaise, 9/2 Afton View, 8/1 Prince Rhyddarch, River Kent, 12/1 Martingrange Lass, 50/1 Jumpin Johnnie, Scanno .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sir Mark Prescott's five runners here this year would all have won had Buddhist Monk not thrown his chance away by hanging across the track, and the common theme amongst the five is that they were all ridden prominently, so it will be no surprise if SUITE FRANCAISE is able to run the finish out of some doubtful stayers and inconsistent types here

Again only 2 the place and soft ground again

415 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Sovereign´s Honour, 11/2 Belotto, 13/2 Vine Street, 8/1 Alvee, 16/1 Bet Noir, Miss Pelling, 25/1 Won More Night.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It will be interesting to see how the well-bred newcomers Alvee and Vine Street go in the market but this looks an obvious opportunity for SOVEREIGN'S HONOUR to get off the mark.

Another maiden race
Again 2 the place

235 NMT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bonnie Charlie, 8/1 Anglezarke, Ouqba, 12/1 Fitz Flyer, Frognal, Harwalla, 14/1 Damien, 16/1 Shampagne, 20/1 Burning Flute, Elnawin, Indian Art, 25/1 Mister Green, 33/1 Klynch, Noble Jack, 40/1 Olympic Dream, 50/1 Evelyn May, 66/1 Full Of Nature, Heliodor, Secret Venue ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The switch from York eradicates concern over the ground for BONNIE CHARLIE (nap), he looks a good thing on paper and, granted luck in running which could be a factor in the maximum field, should win. Fitz Flyer could be the best each-way alternative

Big price gap BUT 20 runners and a top class field - class 2 2 year olds and obviously competitive.

340 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Delegator, 7/1 Cornish Castle, 8/1 Four Winds, 12/1 Contretemps, 14/1 Jack Cool, Salomo, Sumbe, 20/1 Crowded House, Kattar, Palavicini, 25/1 Cry For The Moon, 33/1 Muhim, Recession Proof, Riptide, Royal Trooper, 66/1 Stanley Rigby, Take The Micky, 100/1 Aziz, Kaolak ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Brian Meehan has won this race twice in the last eight years and has an obvious chance with DELEGATOR who sets a good standard on his recent second here and has the advantage of experience. The betting should give an idea of the strength of the opposition he faces.

Fav is the only runner who has, well, run! Big field maiden race and again all bar the market leader and unknown quantity

As you can see, a lot of perceived price gappers in maiden races of less than 8 runners ( ie only 2 the place)
None are ideal at all, but Happy Anniversary would be the one for me

Thursday, 21 August 2008

21/8

Quiet day yesterday - 1.31 fav won as he liked but no harm done

740 CHESTER
Craigstown: will run only if the ground is suitable, states trainer
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Craigstown, 4/1 Just Rob, 7/1 Master Spy, Resounding Glory, 10/1 Eton Fable, Mont Cervin, 14/1 The Oil Magnate, Thunderstruck, 16/1 Cathedral Walk.

Again ground likely , or threatening , to turn soft. 5 lb claimer on Craigstown whose win come in alternate races. Again I'm not happy chancing this on and will lay if he runs

810
10(5) 7-222 Rhadegunda 31 J H M Gosden 69 3 8-12 Jimmy Fortune 13 87 85
8/15
4/7
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Rhadegunda, 4/1 Madame Hoi, 7/1 Hydrophonic, Nawaahi, 20/1 Eternal Optimist, 25/1 Ishiadancer, Jonquille, 33/1 Madame Rio, 66/1 Arrabiata, 100/1 Tot Hill.

3 2's on the trot - what I want to see from a place only perspective. If heavy odds on will be a win bet, but place only is what I'm concentrating on

Again good to soft ground is not ideal but I'll chance this one to keep the winning place only run going ( up to 6 now I think)

625 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Donaldson, 3/1 Shore Thing, 4/1 Option Money, 15/2 Maslak, 9/1 Isintshelovely, 10/1 Karasakal, 16/1 Silver Blue, 33/1 Tweed River, 200/1 Height Of Spirits, Welsh Guard .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quite a decent heat for this time of year. Donaldson is potentially the best horse in the field but he has been off the track since March and may have to give best to SHORE THING, who looked a decent prospect when scoring at Uttoxeter recentl
Option Money won last twice and Donaldson been off since March - no ground worries but they're queuing up - 2 4/1 2nd favourites. Shore thing place perhaps here

Shore thing would not be a ROCK SOLID bet like the maiden horse to keep the winning place run continuing so I'll stay with Rhadegunda only today

HEAVY at Stratford

Wednesday, 20 August 2008

20/8

Successful run continues
Folkstone -soft ground so no backing - Celt in the first race looks good to place BUT with soft ground I will leave alone

Soft ground at Hamilton - again not good enough for backing for me
305 HAM - Glenveagh would be a good candidate were it not for the ground

Soft at Newton Abbott
640
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Roby De Cimbre, 7/2 Pipers Legend, 9/1 Think Of The Money, 33/1 Cengiz .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a straightforward opportunity for ROBY DE CIMBRE despite having to concede plenty of weight to his three rivals. Pipers Legend is the obvious choice for the forecast

Layable with the soft ground at ultra short odds

No involvement from me today with soft ground at all 3 venues. There'll be better opportunities and better ground in the future

Tuesday, 19 August 2008

19/8

Good day yesterday.
Nothing at Brighton - soft ground at Newton Abbott means no backing for me
540 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Hawk´s Landing, 3/1 Three Lions, 7/1 Killonemoonlight, 9/1 Feeling Better, 12/1 Heir To Be, 20/1 Mobasher, 25/1 Krasivi´s Boy, Zuleta, 33/1 Devon Blue, Iowa, Senegal Tiger, 40/1 Well Mick, 50/1 Peggy´s Boy, 66/1 Oxybau .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HAWK'S LANDING could prove vulnerable on this easy track if he has not put the race to bed by the home straight but he still looks the likeliest winner, with Three Lions the obvious threat
Hawks landing to lay -soft and 2 miles 6 f and a big field

525 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Keepitsecret, 7/2 Red Granite, 4/1 Liverpool Echo, 5/1 Earcomesannie, 13/2 Lord Alfred .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KEEPITSECRET (nap) may well be capable of better over fences and although he's up a fair way in the weights after his last run, his chase mark is still a fair way short of his hurdle rating and he is sure to go well after a short break

Place only on Keepitsecret?

http://soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/ for football


Quiet day today

Monday, 18 August 2008

18/8

2 wins yesterday despite me only really looking for places, I backed King o the Gypsies to win as place was 1.11.

Again, being chosy with price gappers seems to be the way - blanket backing is not effective without looking at race type an grond conditions

400 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 War Native, 7/2 Laahig, 7/1 Loulou, 8/1 Fullback, Versaki, 12/1 Fisher Hill, 25/1 Mr Deal .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WAR NATIVE (nap) has more on his plate in being asked to concede 3lb to fellow Dewhurst entrant Laahig but he made quite an impression at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago.

Loulou and Versaki non runners - ok here for War Native to place?

530 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Aleatricis, 6/1 A Dream Come True, Mistress Eva, 7/1 Animator, No Wonga, 9/1 Themwerethedays, 14/1 Cool The Heels .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In many ways ALEATRICS is there to be shot at, up in the weights, down in trip, in first-time blinkers and with the ground threatening to be softer than he has encountered, but his winning mentality can't be denied and his master plotter handler has found him a race that isn't packed with obvious candidates to burst the bubble. No Wonga could be the big improver on his handicap debut

On a 6 timer in an apprentice handicap with soft ground threatening - more a lay for me than a back

730
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 French Art, 5/1 Black Coffee, 6/1 Mazaris, 10/1 Deer Lake, 20/1 James Pollard, 25/1 Aston Boy, 33/1 Sponge, 66/1 Summer Loving .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Here we go again, with FRENCH ART setting the standard, as he did when turned over by a newcomer in a similar C&D affair last week but was in front of Black Coffee, Aston Boy, and James Pollard. There are no newcomers to trip him up this time, but Mazaris may be the one to pose most problems

A string of places for this maiden and I'm happy to stick with him -crrently showing 2/5 will be a win only bet rather than place

345 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sibi Saba, 9/2 Rio Guru, 5/1 Lazeyma, 6/1 Stormy View, 7/1 Pure Song, 12/1 Mvuto, 14/1 Babilu, 20/1 Incarnation, 25/1 River Naiad, 33/1 Princess Rainbow, 40/1 Martingrange Lass, 66/1 Celtic Jazz .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these are quite closely matched on their bare form but the one who may have most to come is SIBI SABA, who has shaped encouragingly in just two outings. Lazeyma needs to step up a fair bit on her debut effort but there's a good chance that she will and she looks another likely improver.

4th and 2nd for fav is progressive. Watch out for Mvuto now 7/1 and possible market mover. Maiden fillies event this one

520 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Doctor Parkes, 4/1 Dream Of Mine, 6/1 Nizhoni Dancer, 7/1 Brazilian Art, 12/1 Chasing Amy, Highland River, 14/1 Al Wujood, 20/1 Arteus, Dice, 25/1 Bubses Boy, Captain Churchill, Ditto Ditto, General Zhukov, 33/1 Coconut Shy, Outland, 100/1 Fawaz .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market confidence behind the Godolphin newcomer Dream Of Mine would be significant, but DOCTOR PARKES has shown more than enough to suggest a race like this should be within his compass and can make his experience tell.

Threat of soft ground will dampen my enthusiasm about getting involved at Yarmouth - 16 runner 2 year old class 6 maiden too! In the fav's favour is progressive form.

720
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Jennie Jerome, 5/1 Merrion Tiger, 11/2 All In The Red, 13/2 Writingonthewall, 8/1 Sazerac, 10/1 Just Jimmy, 11/1 Zaarmit, 12/1 Easy Wonder, 20/1 Ramblin Bob, 25/1 Wooden King, 33/1 Miss Tilen .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty with something to prove here and more than half the runners have an experiment with headgear. JENNIE JEROME has looked promising in three maiden starts and could be poised to strike on her handicap debut. The main dangers are All In The Red and Writingonthewall.

Handicap debutant here installed as fav based on maiden runs

A v tricky day today. French Art to win for me (equivalent of place only odds!)

http://soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/ update on yesterday - what is noticeable is the early successes of the lay the draw IF we get out at 2.00 (when the draw price hits 2.00) . This old chestnut may have legs with decent money management and trading out when the opportunity arises



Sunday, 17 August 2008

17/8

All placed yesterday - all I could hope for and being more choosy is paying off.

Today is a day to tread warily with
300 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 King O´The Gypsies, 3/1 French Riviera, 11/2 Inquest, 9/1 Darfen, Sakheela, 20/1 Go On Ahead, 25/1 Auction Belle, It´s Early Days, 33/1 Extreme Pleasure, 66/1 Frankly Fantastic, Mr Grumble, 100/1 Topsy Maite ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KING O'THE GYPSIES faces his easiest task yet and there will be much head scratching by connections if he fails to deliver. Inquest and Darfen may prove his biggest dangers
I like the progressive form BUT don't like the good to soft ground (which always threatens to turn soft as the day progresses)
1.1 place and 1.56 win - not quite the 5/4 forecast!

420 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rawaabet, 5/1 Coronado´s Gold, 7/1 Patsy Bee, 9/1 Sayago, 10/1 Bond Cruz, 12/1 Oncle Bul, Over Ice, 14/1 El Dee, 20/1 Mycenean Prince, The Duckster, 33/1 Dennick, Saddlers Singer, Strathaird, 50/1 Cadeaux Singer, Penny King ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RAWAABET put up an apparently improved performance last time and gives his new trainer Tim Vaughan an obvious chance of another success

Selling hurdle - YIKES! Nice enough price gap 1.36 place 2.4 win

Limited choice from a price gapper perspective - WIN only on King o the Gypsies, although French Riviera is a little too close price wise - 1.1 is too short for the place despite being an obvious option

Saturday, 16 August 2008

16/8

King Olav 1st 10/11
Came back 2nd 1/2
Greystoke Prince 2nd 6/4
Shyrl 4th 8/11
Satwa Laird 1st evens
Pivka 4th 9/4

Both shortlisted selections placed yesterday

730 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Exit Strategy, 3/1 Majestical, 9/2 River Kirov, 8/1 Game Lady, 10/1 Makabul, 16/1 Mudhish, 25/1 Pajada, Vogarth, 33/1 Lady Fas .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’s hard to get away from EXIT STRATEGY, who won a C&D handicap in decisive fashion last time and can take advantage of this drop in grade. Stablemate Majestical could be the one to chase him home if he’s on a going day, while a market move for River Kirov would be interesting.

Decent enough price gap- race revolving around the 3 market leaders? I'm only looking for a place again on Exit strategy 1.65 place 2.85 win BUT is a seller

640 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Seymour Weld, 7/2 Norman Beckett, 13/2 Young Tot, 16/1 Sycho Fred, 50/1 Government .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SEYMOUR WELD is easily excused a down-the-field run in a very competitive handicap here last time and, judged on his two previous all-the-way wins in C&D novices, ought to be very hard to catch in this company. Chasing debutant Norman Beckett may be next home, ahead of Young Tot - like Seymour Weld a front-runner.

Fav to place - 2 the place 1.19 place 1.62 win

510 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Inchwood, 9/2 Jabal Tariq, 11/2 Sweet Lightning, 7/1 Blimey O´Riley, 10/1 Keenes Day ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INCHWOOD, from the stable that won this race in 2007, is going the right way and gives the impression she will prove better than an 89-rated filly before the season's out. Dual C&D winner Jabal Tariq, back on softer ground, could be the forecast material.

Winner last time out - only 2 the place here as sub 8 runners - decent enough price gap 1.4 place 2.16 win - interesting - such a small field and a relatively big place only price says it all!

Last weekend proved how difficult it was. Today I have tried to be very selective and there are some price gappers I have left out because of race type and possible soft ground. Of the above, Seymour Weld would be the one for me. Exit is in a seller and Inchwood is a handicap winner last time fighting for only 2 places.

http://soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/ is the footy blog.




Friday, 15 August 2008

15/8

FLORENTIA 2nd
HURRICANE HARRIET N/R
GENERAL TING 2nd
The Desert Hawk race was very interesting. King CAnute was 33/1 in the betting forecast and 5/2 Joint favourite and came 2nd ,and if using the live market, this would have quite obviously been the place only bet with such a huge price differential
I am the Best 6th 6/4
Poyle Dee Dee 4th 6/4
Miss Rochester 6th 4/6
Censored won
The Witch Doctor 5th
Think Lucky 4th 6/4
Any Reason 3rd 5/1
The reasons for the poor displays was clearly the soft ground yesterday -heavy at Stratford and soft at SAlisbury

Soft at Catterick so I wouldn't be playing with any price gappers there

625 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 King Olav, 3/1 Amhooj, 6/1 Aboriginie, Vallani, 8/1 Winter Miss, 10/1 E Major, 25/1 Resentful Angel, Thoas, 33/1 Hammer, 66/1 Eseej .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KING OLAV shaped well at Sandown on his debut and though that form could have worked out better, he looked a likely improver and can get off the mark.

Another maiden and another 1 time out favourite 1.23 place 2.92 win

755
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Came Back, 11/2 Bazguy, 9/1 Blue Zenith, 10/1 Blackmalkin, 12/1 Bertie Swift, 14/1 Our Blessing, Thomas Malory, 25/1 Daddy Cool, 66/1 Prix Masque ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAME BACK is hard to get away from on these terms back in this type of company after the way he has progressed in AW handicaps on a variety of tracks

An obvious price gapper 1.13 place 1.77 win

855
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Greystoke Prince, 9/2 Minus Fifteen, 11/2 King´s Wonder, 6/1 La Chicaluna, 7/1 Sir Billy Nick, 10/1 Smokey Rye, 12/1 Dancer´s Legacy, 16/1 Last Of The Line, 25/1 Emperors Jade .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks like it could be run at a strong gallop and it may not be so hard to make ground from off the pace as it often is here. GREYSTOKE PRINCE (nap) nearly pulled those tactics off last time in a race few got into, and with the set-up here looking better, he gets the nod. King's Wonder should find this much easier than some of his tasks of late

1.51 place, 2.8 win

220 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Shyrl, 3/1 Excellerator, 7/1 Lucky Leigh, 16/1 Aspen Darlin, Kerrys Requiem, Riotista, 25/1 Madame Trop Vite, Night Seed, 40/1 Cat Patrol .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With the ground unlikely to be a worry, this looks a good opening for SHYRL. One of three with Group race entries (which include the Nunthorpe), she has strong form claims on her Queen Mary second and should confirm her superiority over Lucky Leigh. Excellerator is feared most

Again soft ground means better ground selections will take priority 1.12 place and 1.73 win

200 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Satwa Laird, 13/2 Lookafternumberone, 8/1 Black Attack, 12/1 Katie Higgins, Roar Of Applause, 14/1 Scottish Affair, Sensacion Sensual, Svindal, 20/1 Coniston Wood, 50/1 Feeling Stylish .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks like a good opportunity for SATWA LAIRD, who shaped with promise on his debut and is clearly well regarded. Katie Higgins might be the best alternative

1.12 place and 1.65 win

Good to soft ground

415
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Pivka, 3/1 Mohathab, 15/2 Summer´s Lease, 10/1 Gaelic Dancer, 12/1 Yetholm, 14/1 Pragmatism, 33/1 La Rochette, 50/1 Curly Brown .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PIVKA showed bags of promise on her debut and is taken to improve past Mohathab. Newcomer Summer's Lease, who comes from a good family, is one to keep an eye on.

Pivka place 1.5 place and 2.6 win

Came back and Satwa laird for me today

Thursday, 14 August 2008

14/8

LET IT BE - wins 9/2 1.74 place
JEMIMAS ART 4th 3/1- PLACE 1.29 WIN 2.64
SIR GEOFFREY 3rd 1.2 PLACE 2.78 WIN
FOSSGATE 4th 85/40 FOSSGATE PLACE 1.21 WIN 2.44
INSIDE STORY 3rd 11/10 (6 runner race) Inside Story PLACE 1.49 2.44 PLACE
TERRY NUTKIN 1.63 PLACE 2.62 WIN 3rd in a 6 runner race
ASTRODOME 1.21 PLACE 1.98 WIN 1st
PRINCESS HANNAH 1.45 PLACE 3.45 WIN 1st 5/2
TOO TALL 4th 13/8 Too Tall to place? 1.47 PLACE 3.15 WIN
Myanmar place only? 1.17 PLACE 2.16 WIN 2nd 8/13
4 before 20/1 in an 8 runner race - Maddy good to place -1.25 PLACE 2.44 WIN 1st 10/11

Officials in red and poor day for them - BUT my ambitious target profit per day idea would have profitted again - BUT place only odds are v short so stakes will escalate - BUT we never seem to go too long without a place ( including all selections) - SO perhaps a method for compounding - eg £100 get our 2% this way? I am thinking aloud here of course

It looks as if blanket backing of price gappers is not a long term winner without any analysis regarding race type and ground conditions

GOOD TO SOFT AT BEVERLEY really tempers enthusiasm
Let's add a little analysis today
240 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Florentia, 7/2 Wotatomboy, 5/1 Red Kyte, 11/2 Cash In The Attic, 8/1 Impressible, 14/1 Bussell Along, 20/1 Val De Flores, 33/1 Arriva La Diva, Elsie Jo, Georgie Bee, Le Reve Royal, Monaco Mistress, 50/1 Petella, Valentine Bay ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FLORENTIA shaped well on her debut last week and in the absence of Salsa Star is the selection. She promises to leave that run well behind and can get the better of Red Kyte.
5 before 14/1 -Florentia good to place? 3.2 WIN 1.44 PLACE (11am)
16 runner 5 furlongs fillies maiden in ground which may turn softer .Florentia is head of the market after only a single run and there are 4 debutants
POSITIVES - Cash in the attic is out (4th fav) along with 4 others reducing the field

530 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Hurricane Harriet, 8/1 Seductive Witch, Tugalu, 9/1 Captain Kir, 12/1 Linnet Park, 14/1 Cracking Nick, Enodoc, Swift Acclaim, Tea Cake, Young Ivanhoe, 16/1 L´Art Du Silence, Shatter Resistant, 25/1 Summer Rose, 33/1 Westwood Dawn .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A mostly exposed and out-of-form bunch with the obvious exception of HURRICANE HARRIET, who was fairly emphatic at Yarmouth a week ago and had no trouble defying a penalty there yesterday. Seductive Witch could well emerge as a danger given her solid record on AW.[

Eye catching price gapper here - NON RUNNER

600 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Stan´s Cool Cat, 7/4 Zaffaan, 3/1 Celtic Spur, 10/1 Rare Art .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The very capable and progressive STAN'S COOL CAT has been found a realistic opportunity to build upon her latest confidence-building Chepstow win and can make the most of the weight received from impressive Ascot scorer Zaffaan

Lay Rare art or back top 3 to level stakes 4, 3.6, 3.2

630 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 General Ting, 4/1 Greenwich Village, Vilna, 10/1 Trachonitis, 12/1 Bell Island, Wind Flow, 14/1 Eventide, Turban Heights, Vinces, 20/1 Eva Soneva So Fast .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The improving General Ting has to be feared over this proven trip, but one with more solid AW credentials is VILNA, who's found a new level since fitted with a visor and shapes as though he'll relish this longer trip. Greenwich Village completes the shortlist.

3 before 10/1 indicates the market leader as a good place only bet ? 2.86 win 1.55 place

A handicap -no market movers apparent albeit early on

1.55 place indicates it is a handicap race

800
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Desert Hawk, 8/1 Ruwain, 9/1 Magic Amigo, 10/1 Golden Brown, Postmaster, The Grey One, 12/1 Bold Phoenix, Recalcitrant, 14/1 Kilmeena Magic, Shropshirelass, 16/1 Bainisteoir, Hallings Overture, Yakama, 20/1 Classy Affair, 33/1 King Canute, Womaniser .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DESERT HAWK (nap) looked in fine fettle when recapturing winning ways at Wolverhampton on Monday and, off the same mark, there'll be no excuses on this swift follow-up mission. The Grey One appeals for a place

16 runner class 6 0-50 handicap - bargain basement horses. Fav a winner last time out and off the same mark in a race where there's 4 the place on BEtfair , 1.53 place 3.8 win
A definite for me this one

SALISBURY - soft ground - care needed
200
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 I Am The Best, 3/1 Sunny Future, 10/1 Solar Graphite, 12/1 Gearbox, 14/1 Mister Dee Bee, 16/1 Such Optimism, 25/1 Marcus Crassus, Mykingdomforahorse, Perfect Friend, 50/1 Harry Raffle, 66/1 Efficiency, Tax Dodger, 100/1 Free To Choose .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks like a good opportunity for I AM THE BEST (nap), who hasn't been disgraced in Group Two events and has yet to run in an ordinary maiden, let alone a maiden auction. Sunny Future also has the form to win a race like this, whilst Such Optimism looks the most interesting of the newcomers

Soft ground the major concern here with all selections at Salisbury. 1.14 place and 1.74 win
Ran in class 1's last 2 races and looks another shortlister

305
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Poyle Dee Dee, 9/2 Willridge, 10/1 Surprise Package, 12/1 Casela Park, Kara Tau, 16/1 Kappalyn, Uncle Fred, 20/1 Aegean Pride, Faintly Hopeful, Tampopo, 66/1 Oronsay, 100/1 Dancing Rhythm .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POYLE DEE DEE has an obvious chance here after her fine effort over this C&D last time and she should be hard to beat. Kara Tau might go well given his stable's record with new inmates
1.19 place and 2.02 win
Again soft ground to contend with - price gap remains - a 3 year old maiden and 5 debutants

340
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Miss Rochester, 9/2 Hepburn Bell, 11/2 Isle Of Capri, 6/1 Sea Chorus, 8/1 Moon Sister, 10/1 Shimoni, 16/1 Star Of Gibraltar, 25/1 Muffett´s Dream .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a really competitive race of its type, but MISS ROCHESTER looked a filly to follow last time and it will be no surprise if she takes this en route to better things.Hepburn Bell has shaped as if needing this trip on her last two starts and looks the best alternative

Isle of Capri non runner and will remain 3 the place on BEtfair
1.19 place and 2.06 win
Again soft ground the potential spoiler

400 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Censored, 3/1 Emirates Lady, 10/1 Sea Swell, 12/1 Flight Of Fashion, Greyfriarsblessing, 20/1 Katy Kitten .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not the hottest maiden ever staged here and an opportunity for Confidential Lady's half-sister CENSORED. Emirates Lady is the obvious threat on form.

2 the place and 1.26 place and 1.94 win for Censored

510
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Which Doctor, 11/2 Curzon Prince, 13/2 Danetime Panther, Nightjar, 7/1 Red Birr, 8/1 Baylini, 14/1 Lunar Promise, 16/1 Master Pegasus, 20/1 Hopeful Purchase .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's plenty of hope on breeding that THE WHICH DOCTOR (nap) will handle softer ground than he won on here late last month and there's every chance he has more to offer for his in-form yard. Curzon Prince likes some ease in the surface and may be the best alternative.

Again ifs and buts about softer ground capability
1.45 place 3 win

STRATFORD
Soft - heavy in places - extreme caution needed

540
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Think Lucky, 4/1 Answer Me, Corum, 5/1 Prince Vector, 11/2 Duggan´s Forge, 20/1 Supreme Team, 66/1 King Rocky, Newnham Flyer, Valentine Moon .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those with hurdling form are not that convincing, particularly on soft ground, so ANSWER ME might be able to build on his bumper efforts over a more suitable trip on his hurdling debut.[

5 horse race?
1.49 place and 3.3 win

Maiden hurdle - YIKES!
2 miles 6 furlongs in soft/heavy - YIKES!

810
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Any Reason, 7/2 Edgefour, 11/2 Sister Agnes, 13/2 Daramoon, 12/1 Looktheotherway, Vicky Bee, 20/1 Blazing Run, Cresswell Ruby, 25/1 Overdante, Will She Spin, 50/1 Cushty, 66/1 Clare Park .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This will take no winning and ex-Irish pointer ANY REASON may prove up to the task. She is unproven on soft ground but so are most of her likely rivals.[

Unproven on soft ground!

Desert Hawk and I am the best would be my certs to place today I think, but let's see how the others progress























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Wednesday, 13 August 2008

13/8

Of the "official " price gappers, Horatio Carter placed and Tasheba placed - 1.52 and 1.17 for places - hardly sets the pulses racing but good profits.

The others I am experimenting on races where the betting forecast indicates perecived dominance by 2-3 horses - again place only betting the ideal here
Red Kestrel won 8/13 1.2 place 1.67 win
Liberty Valance 1.56 to place 2.64 4th
Zippy Jazzman 1.88 to place 3.25 2nd
Dimashq 1.31 place 2.7 unplaced
Dispol Kylie 1.41 place 2.2 win 3rd in a sub 8 runner race so unplaced
Highland Warrior 1.48 place 2.84win WON

Poor for these experiemental bets

345 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Let It Be, 3/1 Estate, 9/2 Danzatrice, 7/1 Rock ´N´ Roller, 8/1 Mister Arjay, 10/1 Sphinx, 16/1 Clueless, 25/1 Wait For The Light ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hat-trick seeking Let It Be has more on her plate off her revised mark and significant rain would be firmly against her. The vote goes to the well-handicapped ESTATE (nap), who is pretty versatile regarding the ground, should find this stiff 2m right up his street and has solid credentials in what may not be an especially strong race for the grade.

3 potentials at the head of the market, I would be looking for market leader to place. BUT will shelve it soft ground

LET IT BE 1.74 PLACE 4.8 WIN (11am)

420 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Jemima´s Art, 6/1 Maha Dubai, 7/1 Highland Love, 8/1 Locum, 12/1 Joinedupwriting, Natural Rhythm, 14/1 Coral Shores, 16/1 Clear Daylight, Reel Buddy Blaze, 20/1 Uncle Harry, 25/1 Topflightrebellion ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Assuming she'll be just as effective back under less testing conditions (though forecast rain may change that), JEMIMA'S ART looks difficult to oppose after her 8l success at Newcastle. Taking into account her being out of the weights, she is effectively only 5lb higher. Highland Love and Maha Dubai look best of the remainder.

Official price gapper here
JEMIMAS ART - PLACE 1.29 WIN 2.64

450 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Sir Geoffrey, 11/4 Red Rosanna, 11/2 Roof Fiddle, 10/1 Fashion Icon, Iorek Byrnison, Mill Pond, 20/1 Bubbly Baby, 25/1 Kilsyth, Pollish ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sir Geoffrey commands respect on the figures and he has been shaping as though a drop to 5f will suit but the similarly well-drawn RED ROSANNA is a suitable alternative given that she has the best form of those with turf experience. Roof Fiddle is an interesting newcomer

Another with 3 at the head of the market and Sir Geoffrey to place

SIR GEOFFREY 1.2 PLACE 2.78 WIN

520 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fossgate, 7/1 Gulf Coast, 8/1 Fenners, Parkview Love, Sabancaya, 12/1 Fuel Cell, Skye But N Ben, 16/1 Edas, Red Fama, Treetops Hotel, 25/1 Bollin Freddie, Tidy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gulf Coast remains on an upward curve and any improvement for this longer trip would see him go close this time. FOSSGATE did win well at Ripon last time though and, with these conditions no problem, he can follow up under his penalt

Another official price gapper

FOSSGATE PLACE 1.21 WIN 2.44


655 HAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Inside Story, 4/1 Five Wishes, 5/1 Chin Wag, 6/1 Primo Way, 8/1 Sarraaf, 10/1 Royal Applord, 100/1 Wolf Pack .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent opportunity for INSIDE STORY who invariably hits form at this time of year and recorded back-to-back successes in both 2006 and 200

Ideal is 8 runners for 3 the place on Betfair rather than 2 the place
Inside Story PLACE 1.49 2.44 PLACE

725 HAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nutkin, 11/4 Insaaf, 7/2 Badalona, 7/1 Magic Echo, 10/1 Hula Ballew, 12/1 Keisha Kayleigh ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop back to this trip proved the making of NUTKIN (nap) at Ascot, just as it did with her Hunt Cup and Falmouth winning half-sister Macadamia, and she can confirm her superiority over runner-up Badalona on 5lb worse terms

Another top heavy market and again 6 runners means 2 the place
TERRY NUTKIN 1.63 PLACE 2.62 WIN

825
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Astrodome, 6/1 Hawkit, Rudry World, 7/1 Chookie Hamilton, 8/1 Los Nadis, World Tour, 16/1 Kirkie, 25/1 Herakles, White Ross, 33/1 Asrar .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Astrodome will be popular after his win here last time and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he had more to offer. LOS NADIS should be capable off this sort of mark on the Flat though and this drop back in trip could be in his favour

Another official price gapper
ASTRODOME 1.21 PLACE 1.98 WIN

200 SAL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Princess Hannah, 3/1 Zero Money, 100/30 Cavera, 9/1 Mr Flannegan, 10/1 Durgan, 12/1 Davids Matador, 16/1 Banda Sea, 25/1 Baby Josr, 33/1 Jarrah Bay ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Princess Hannah is easily the pick of those with previous experience but she has questions to answer after her latest outing and could prove vulnerable to a talented newcomer such as Zero Money or CAVERA

Top heavy market - place only Princess hannah?
PRINCESS HANNAH 1.45 PLACE 3.45 WIN

535 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Enderby Spirit, 3/1 Victoria Sponge, 6/1 Always There, Sharp Bullet, 8/1 Cash In The Attic, 10/1 Noverre To Hide, 16/1 Albaseet, 25/1 Overbright, 33/1 Lujeanie, Ruby Best, 40/1 Piccolo Mondo, Short Cut, 50/1 Alexander Newstalk .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: After his promising debut, ENDERBY SPIRIT may well be able to thwart the Hannon duo of Victoria Sponge and Always There. The eyecatching newcomer is Sharp Bullet.

Place only Enderby Spirit? - NON RUNNER

635
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Too Tall, 4/1 Leulahleulahlay, 5/1 King Of Defence, Papa Meilland, 11/2 Granski, 10/1 Itlaaq, 40/1 Survivor´s Song, 50/1 Lucky Score, 100/1 Four Green Fields ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The once-raced pair TOO TALL and Papa Meilland head the list of those that have run, with the Cumani colt in particular looking open to major progress. It is easy to think that the Jarvis and Johnston newcomers King Of Defence and Leulahleulahlay will also prove significant factors though

Too Tall to place? 1.47 PLACE 3.15 WIN

355 YARMN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Myanmar, 5/1 Dan Chillingworth, Resplendent Nova, 7/1 Mugeba, Viscountess, 8/1 Registrar, 12/1 Warden Fizz, 16/1 Divertimenti, 25/1 Mudhish .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite being best on Polytrack, dead ground suits RESPLENDENT NOVA on turf and he's on a winning mark. Lightly raced Myanmar obviously has to be considered, along with fellow 3yo Dan Chillingworth

Myanmar place only? 1.17 PLACE 2.16 WIN

430 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Maddy, 3/1 Grit, 4/1 Safebreaker, 6/1 Flash Of Fire, 20/1 Bagenalstown, Latimer House, Rock Me, Santa Clara .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Grit bounced back under a more aggressive last time but he would have been 21lb better off with MADDY were this a handicap and that's quite an ask

4 before 20/1 in an 8 runner race - Maddy good to place -1.25 PLACE 2.44 WIN

Official price gappers today will be Astrodome, Fossgate and Jemimas Art
























































Monday, 11 August 2008

12/8

JAconet 5th 7/2 - I mentioned it was "5 furlong and soft ground"
Crystal Moments - non runner
Rum jungle 2nd 9/4
French Art 2nd 2/5
Elegant Cad 1st 4/11

Again all places here bar Jaconet and it would seem as the days go by that place only betting allows a lot of leighway but prices of course will be very restrictive.
Ideas? Target profit per day using the place market? Big stakes required though but the chance of reaching target on 1st bet.

810 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Horatio Carter, 9/2 King Kenny, 5/1 Zabeel Tower, 6/1 Flores Sea, 13/2 Flying Bantam, 10/1 Botham, 14/1 Avontuur, 20/1 Attacca .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these often race prominently and Horatio Carter could be a little vulnerable under a penalty for his all-the-way Carlisle win. Zabeel Tower, unbeaten in two starts here this term, has to enter calculations but KING KENNY is taken to build on his Pontefract effort, with confidence enhanced if he attracts market support again.

Good to soft but 810 kick off here and I would be wary about soft ground. 1.52 to place for Horatio Carter and 3.8 to win.

655 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tasheba, 4/1 The Betchworth Kid, 7/1 Judgethemoment, 8/1 Yossi, 9/1 Directa´s Digger, Horseford Hill, 16/1 Salute, 25/1 Turban Heights ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TASHEBA (nap) makes a good bit of appeal, having progressed well since being upped to staying trips. Despite his rise in the handicap and being pitched into a better race here, he still looks the pick of the weights and we know he handles give in the ground perfectly well. The Betchworth Kid can chase him home.

Tasheeba place 1.17 win 1.84 win

Other races to consider.... where there is a price gap but 2 prominent market leaders

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Red Kestrel, 9/4 Buddhist Monk, 6/1 Street Crime, 14/1 Pinnacle Point, 16/1 Futurity, 33/1 Marsh Court .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Buddhist Monk has the ability to win a similar race but RED KESTREL (nap) looks sure to improve on his debut effort and this extra distance should be in his favour

Red Kestrel 1.2 to place 1.67 to win

330
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Liberty Valance, 7/4 Zippi Jazzman, 8/1 Deal Flipper, Meridian Line, 10/1 Sinead Of Aglish, 33/1 Hold That Call .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of these are remotely convincing and LIBERTY VALANCE, who travelled strongly for much of the race at Leicester last time, is the tentative selection now back at sprint trips

Liberty Valance 1.56 to place 2.64
Zippy Jazzman 1.88 to place 3.25

610 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Dimashq, 9/4 Kyber, 5/2 Rightful Ruler, 8/1 Merryvale Man, 25/1 Asrar, 33/1 Always Best, Stravonian, 50/1 Monte Pattino .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kyber is sure to be popular in a bid for a repeat win, while recent improver Dimashq is respected, but RIGHTFUL RULER gets the nod now back on the Flat after taking some steps forward over timber lately.

Dimashq 1.31 place 2.7
Rightful Ruler 1.3 to place 3.2
Kyber 1.52 place 5.8

640
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dispol Kylie, 13/8 Majuba, 9/2 Blow Your Mind, 14/1 Dispol Grand, 33/1 Jethro Bodine, Wee Bizzom .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weights DISPOL KYLIE (nap) and Majuba are the two to concentrate on, with preference for the former whose ability to handle conditions is not in doubt. Blow Your Mind is not out of things on one piece of collateral form with Majuba and will find this easier than last time if handling the ground

Dispol Kylie 1.41 place 2.2 win
Majuba 1.43 to place 2.92 win


740
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Highland Warrior, 5/2 Circuit Dancer, 9/2 Oranmore Castle, 6/1 Pegasus Dancer, 8/1 Ingleby Star, 9/1 Fire Up The Band, 25/1 Princess Charlmane, 50/1 Seafield Towers, 66/1 Alfie Lee, Ducal Regancy Red, Percy Douglas, 100/1 Mister Marmaduke, 250/1 Ronnies Girl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many to be concerned with despite the numbers and under the forcast conditions, HIGHLAND WARRIOR just gets the vote over Circuit Dancer.

Highland Warrior 1.48 place 2.84win
Circuit dancer 1.61 place 4.1 win

I thought I'd include prices at time of writing (1040am) to look at the viability of target profit with place only betting. Yes it sounds like a silly idea and stakes even with a target profit of a five r will escalate quickly after an unplaced horse.












6

Sunday, 10 August 2008

11/8

Seradim 1st 2/1
Demeanour 3rd 1/2
Snowy Indian 3rd 10/3
Ryedane 5th 6/1
Louidor 8th 4/1
Rescue Me 2nd 2/1

Demeanour the only real standout price gapper yesterday
730 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Jaconet, 5/1 Captain Dunne, 6/1 Braille, Wotashirtfull, 8/1 Supermassive Muse, 9/1 Know No Fear, 10/1 Tia Mia, 12/1 Style Award, 14/1 Grudge, 25/1 Blakeshall Diamond .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jaconet scored in good style at York but she's unlikely to get such an easy lead this time with a couple of other regular front-runners in opposition and CAPTAIN DUNNE (nap) may well be able to reverse that form. Style Award and Braille are feared most

5 furlong and soft ground

550 WINDS
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Crystal Moments, 100/30 Night Seed, 11/2 Young Dottie, 8/1 Green Poppy, 12/1 Foxtrot Alpha, Give, 25/1 Cocktail Party, 33/1 Hip Hip Hooray .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Night Seed is the only runner with soft-ground form but she will be hard pressed to reverse latest running with CRYSTAL MOMENTS (nap) if the latter adapts to the surface. Both the sire and dam of Crystal Moments acted well on soft, so the signs look promising.

Again the threat of soft ground tempers my emthusiasm

650
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Rum Jungle, 5/1 Brave Hawk, Red Somerset, 11/2 Moonlight Man, 15/2 Lordship, 11/1 Full Victory, Meydan Dubai, 12/1 Trafalgar Square, 16/1 Cape Of Luck, 20/1 St Petersburg .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RUM JUNGLE may be the answer, having produced a career-best run when winning a 7f Newmarket handicap last time, still being on a fair mark off 6lb higher and with further progress likely. Red Somerset, one of several in-form rivals, may be the biggest danger

750
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 French Art, 100/30 Dollarsmile, 11/2 Acclaimed, 12/1 Apotheosis, Black Coffee, Saintly Gaze, Superior Duchess, 14/1 James Pollard, 25/1 Mister Ross, 50/1 Aston Boy, Brathay, Mayfair´s Future, 100/1 Ryan´s Rock .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRENCH ART sets a good standard on two pieces of form this season, on easy ground on his reappearance at Newbury and last time when only collared late on at Haydock. If he runs to that level again he will be tough to beat. Dollarsmile showed only fair form on his debut but could improve for his top stable but it may be that newcomer Acclaimed, who is well bred and represents a good yard too, offers most resistance

230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Elegant Cad, 11/2 Skid Solo, 15/2 Layer Cake, 12/1 Chatterszaha, 16/1 Weet In Nerja, 20/1 Superstitious Me, 100/1 Liliaceae .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to get away from dropped-in-class ELEGANT CAD whose stable has a 25% strike-rate with 2yos here. With Skid Solo proving disappointing, Layer Cake may be the one for the forecast

Obvious but an obvious price

Very poor day today

10/8

Ascot races were novelty yesterday -the only real price gapper Trip the light won. 7/4 - - - 5/1 was a clear price gap.
All the good lost 4/1 but was part of the Shergar Cup. Jobe won at 10/11 but this was not a real price gapper , more a 2 horse race.Seminole 9th at 5/4 , Unbiased 4th 15/8
So for me yesterday, Trip the light was THE price gapper and won

140 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Seradim, 11/4 Caster Sugar, 7/1 Ever Loved, 10/1 Enhancing, Save The Day, 12/1 Izzy Lou, 14/1 Silk Cotton, 25/1 Hettie Hubble, 33/1 Another Echo, 50/1 Maybeme ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This could lie between Caster Sugar and SERADIM, with preference for the latter, who was too green to do herself justice at Goodwood last time

Not quite in Trip the light territory price gap wise so not an official price gapper for me

210 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Demeanour, 5/1 Kochanski, 6/1 Straits Of Hormuz, 12/1 Nimmy´s Special, 14/1 Madamlily, 16/1 Dakota Two, Forever´s Girl, 25/1 Punch Drunk, 33/1 Accumulation, 50/1 Who´s Shirl, 66/1 Haulage Lady .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Straits Of Hormuz and Kochanski are interesting newcomers but this looks a good opportunity for DEMEANOUR (nap) to get off the mark before taking up one or other of her fancy entries later in the season

A definite despite being a maiden fillies event, but I dont want to over analyse

440 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Snowy Indian, 11/2 Pondapie, 7/1 Mystic Art, 8/1 Augustus John, Bold Bobby Be, 10/1 Bocciani, 11/1 Shanafarahan, 12/1 Top Man Dan, 14/1 White Moss, 20/1 Follow The Sun, 25/1 Uncle Harry .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SNOWY INDIAN did fairly well when a staying-on fifth in a slightly messy race last time and this looks less competitive. The main dangers are Mystic Art and Pondapie, who found some improvement last time.

Borderline case this one

510 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Ryedane, 6/1 Rainbow Bay, 9/1 Obe One, 10/1 Greek Secret, Inca Soldier, 12/1 Maison Dieu, Summer Recluse, 14/1 Double Carpet, Woodsley House, 16/1 Bond Becks, Miacarla, Nabeeda, Puskas, 25/1 Bigalo´s Banjo, Mujma, Paint Stripper, Tadlil, 33/1 Apres Ski, Flaxton, Safranine .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ryedane looks nailed on to run a decent race but MAISON DIEU offers every bit as solid form and he is marginally preferred. Inca Soldier is one of several others who can go wel

Not an official price gapper

400 WIND
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Louidor, 4/1 Rumble Of Thunder, 11/2 Wing Home, 8/1 Miss Tikitiboo, 10/1 Safari Guide, 12/1 Golden Destiny, 14/1 Cabo Polonio, 16/1 Red Robert, 20/1 Tobizzy, 25/1 Hi Shinko, Igotim, 33/1 Buckers Beauty .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LOUIDOR sets the standard on his debut effort at this track and, with the step up in trip unlikely to be a problem, he could be the one to beat. Market confidence behind any of the newcomers, particularly Safari Guide or Miss Tikitiboo, would be interestin

Wing Home now sharing favouratism at 5/2 with Louidor.

530 WIND
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Rescue Me, 9/2 Gross Prophet, 6/1 Welcome Releaf, 7/1 Art Market, 8/1 Maybe I Will, 10/1 Dr Synn, 14/1 A One, 16/1 Hurstpierpoint, 25/1 River N´ Blues .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RESCUE ME has the most appealing recent form and, providing the ground doesn't soften greatly, she can add to her C&D success last month. Welcome Releaf is another to consider

Soft ground concerns at Windsor today - Demeanour the most obvious candidate today followed by Snowy Indian, rescue me and Louidor - the latter 2 I would be concerned if ground turned soft




































































Obvious price gappers for me will be Trip the light, and maybe Seminole but let's see hope the "not quite price gappers" get on

Again bear in mind this is a Saturday too.

Friday, 8 August 2008

9/8

Servoca neck 2nd 4/5
Amber Queen unplaced 4/6
Masamah 1st 5/2
Wingwalker 1st 9\4
Distiller 1st 10/11
Cross compliance 4th 5/6
Not quite price gappers
English Town 5th 9/2
Wildbach 1st evens
Siena lake 1st 10/3
Tubby Isaacs 1st 2/1
Glenridding neck 2nd 3/1
Kannon neck 2nd 3/1
Alonso de Guzman 2nd 4/7

With the "obvious" price gappers, 3 winners, 2 at 2/1 and 9/4 which compensate, I suppose, for losing bets. The "unofficial" price gappers saw 10/3, 2/1 and evens winners which could have been much better had Kannon won at 3/1 rather than neck 2nd.Again, notice the number of horses placing. All in all pleasing enough. Let's continue today but tread warily with the Shergar Cup which is a bit of a novelty

Is there any way to avoid potential losing bets?

330 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 All The Good, 9/2 Candle, 11/2 Formax, 8/1 Strategic Mount, 10/1 Filios, Profit´s Reality, 12/1 Record Breaker, Sahrati, 16/1 Polish Power, 25/1 Coeur De Lionne ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALL THE GOOD (nap) may well be the answer, having made a good start for Godolphin when fourth in a more competitive race over C&D last month. Strategic Mount's chance of repeating last year's win hinges on the weather and he has a good shout if it stays dry, with Formax preferred of the others

One idea is "nap and gap" - price gap and napped by SPotlight? This is perhaps not as big a price gap as I would like

620 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Jobe, 6/4 Aladdin´s Lamp, 8/1 Jatman, 12/1 Quanah Parker, 16/1 Igneous, 20/1 Salgrev, 25/1 Lady Dunhill, 50/1 Thatwasthepension, 66/1 Franali .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting clash of promising once-raced colts who cost six figures at the sales and are in good hands, namely ALADDIN'S LAMP (nap) and Middle Park entrant Jobe. Despite not having any major entries yet, preference is for the former, whose stable has won five of the last seven renewals of this event

Price gap between the first 2 and the 3rd - again not a clean price gapper

610 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Seminole, 7/2 Fullback, 7/1 Stirling Castle, 8/1 Churchills Victory, 10/1 Orsippus, 12/1 Kaada, 16/1 My Les, Officer In Command, 33/1 D´Artagnans Dream, Hassadin, Sergeant Pink, Sumani .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SEMINOLE was unlucky to catch a smart prospect at Sandown last month and has been found a suitable opportunity to gain recompense on this switch to AW


740 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 The Game, 11/2 Requisite, 6/1 Leading Edge, 7/1 Silver Wind, 9/1 Tadalavil, 10/1 Lodi, 12/1 C´Mon You Irons, Prime Factor, 14/1 Non Sucre, 16/1 Perfect Flight, We Have A Dream .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The change of scenery has clearly benefited THE GAME (nap) and he can make it two successive wins in a race that should be run to suit. Requisite and Leading Edge can fight out the minor honours

410 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Unbiased, 3/1 Billy Bowmore, 7/2 Chosen One, 12/1 Carr On Fire, 14/1 Bertie Vista, Dolly Royal, Predictable, 16/1 Cullybackey, 25/1 Mr Toshiwonka, Uace Mac, 50/1 Cranworth Blaze, 66/1 Distant Rainbow, High Shanamara, 100/1 Suspender .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UNBIASED looks worth another chance to confirm the promise of his debut effort at Newmarket, though he isn't certain to appreciate the drop in trip. Chosen One is an interesting newcomer and must be taken seriously if the market shows the right signals

Not quite a big enough price gap but a 3 horse race in prospect

510 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Trip The Light, 5/1 Banquet, 8/1 Apsara, Centenary, Wulimaster, 10/1 Jenny Soba, 14/1 Boxhall, Joshua, 20/1 Hill Cloud, Nevsky Bridge, 25/1 Bond Casino, Riodan, 33/1 Leitmotif, 50/1 Foxxy, 100/1 Amjad .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRIP THE LIGHT (nap) had his run checked at a vital stage and in any case had the visor left off when dividing Wulimaster and Banquet at Beverley two outings ago, and is better judged on his two wins in headgear. The best alternative may be Jenny Soba, who travelled well for a long way last time. [

Obvious price gappers for me will be Trip the light, and maybe Seminole but let's see hope the "not quite price gappers" get on

Again bear in mind this is a Saturday too.




















8/8

Poor day for my selections but let's see how the price gappers/winning gap(ish) selections performed
Riolina 1st 3/1
Like for like 1st 6/5
Casual Garcia 1st 5/6
Galpin Junoir 1st 8/15
Tilsworth Charlie 5th 5/2
Le Toreador 4th 9/4
On our way 1st 2/1
Certain PRomise 1st 4/6

A nice haul without any analysis 2nd day on the trot. I'll concetrate on these again today I think.
PRICE GAPPERS /WINNING GAP (again no analysis -just listing them)
705 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Servoca, 5/1 Justonefortheroad, 6/1 Come And Go, Lyric Art, 12/1 Real Dandy, 14/1 Dark Echoes, 20/1 Gilbertian, 33/1 Dark Desert, Our Angel, Shanavaz .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lyric Art is an interesting newcomer and if the money comes for her, she has to be on the shortlist. Justonefortheroad went with plenty of dash on his debut and is another to consider but each of SERVOCA's five runs have seen him return a RPR in excess of anything else achieved in this line-up and this looks his best opportunity to date.[

835
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Amber Queen, 7/2 Paint The Town Red, 5/1 Midnight Muse, 8/1 Holden Eagle, Willkandoo, 12/1 Brasingaman Hifive, 16/1 Resounding Glory .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Holden Eagle has caught the eye the last twice and remains capable of better, while Paint The Town Red looked the type to continue to progress when scoring at Great Leighs last time. AMBER QUEEN (nap) is bred to be a bit better than an 80-rated filly though and the style of her York win last month suggested she was one to keep on the right side

340 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Masamah, 3/1 Agente Parmigiano, 4/1 Art Preview, 9/2 Evelyn May, 12/1 Gone Hunting, 14/1 Big Stormy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ready AW winners Art Preview and Evelyn May merit serious consideration, but they may lack the quality of MASAMAH, whose ready York success has worked out well.[

Not as big a price gap as the others

550 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Wingwalker, 7/1 Delegator, 8/1 Calligrapher, Mishrif, 10/1 King Of Wands, Midnight Cruiser, Murhee, 12/1 Print, 14/1 Sequillo, 20/1 Aqwaal, Forte Dei Marmi, Highland River, 25/1 Invincible Heart, 33/1 Adios Juan, Strongarm, 40/1 Mezzoforte, 50/1 Gordy Bee, Orsippus, 66/1 Duar Mapel .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nineteen unraced youngsters and something of a lottery but a handful hold big-race engagements in the coming weeks and the betting should provide further clues. WINGWALKER appears to have plenty going for him and is preferred to Delegator and Murhee

Note Spotlight's comment

250 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Distiller, 5/1 Caretta Caretta, 13/2 Crashtown Hall, 7/1 Canndar, Runaround Sue, 10/1 What Luck, 20/1 Global Party, 25/1 Laughing Game, 66/1 Theseainttoys, 100/1 Killer Jim, Mr Parson, Posh King .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these are capable of running solid races but they all have something to find with DISTILLER who should be able to give the weight away if staying this longer trip

520
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Cross Compliance, 6/1 Pillbox, 7/1 Megasue, 8/1 Bob Casey, 10/1 Standing Order, 20/1 Beyond Moonbeams, Celtic Robber, Magical Island, 25/1 Miss Maratana, 33/1 April The Last, Little Squirrell, Stormed At Dawn .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The bumper form on offer is nothing to shout about and the interesting one is undoubtedly CROSS COMPLIANCE, who has been out for a long time but looked a good prospect when winning his point


Well it's been a superb strike rate last 2 days - pure coincidence? When is a price gap not a price gap? Some could be nearlies like those below

420 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Englishtown, 7/2 St Mellion Freeway, 9/2 Don´t Be Bleu, 5/1 Barneys Mate, 14/1 Picabo Kid, Thunder Rock, 16/1 Jass, 20/1 Marrel, Symbiosis .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Englishtown should come out on top of the quartet which fought it out here last week but is no certainty to do so. St Mellion Freeway is a threat with the initial handicap effort under his belt but, if the ground is good or quicker,BARNEYS MATE might still confirm the placings even if the weights strongly suggest he cannot.


320 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wildbach, 11/4 Pips Assertive Way, 9/1 Are You There, 10/1 Kingoftheswingers, Mycenean Prince, 12/1 L´Oiseau De Feu, 16/1 Spence Appeal, 20/1 Fair Shake, 25/1 Day´s Over, Fiorsceal, 33/1 Sea Cookie, 66/1 Cool Dante .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pips Assertive Way is ahead of the handicapper but is worth taking on until she shows she can do it away from her beloved Stratford. The obvious alternative is WILDBACH, who, unlike in his latest start in Germany, will not have to face a test of his swimming prowess.

620 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Sienna Lake, 6/1 Against The Rules, 8/1 All Angel, Barcode, Miss Moloney, 10/1 Bounty Reef, Heaven Knows When, 12/1 Buddy Marvellous, Kapowee, 16/1 Pokfulham, 22/1 Strikemaster, 25/1 Ashwinder, Benetti, 33/1 Ba Globetrotter .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sellers here are usually a cut above those run elsewhere but that can't be said about this race and not one of the field makes overwhelming appeal. Sienna Lake sets the standard but is far from unbeatable and a chance is taken on AGAINST THE RULES who has been keeping better company without looking devoid of ability

440 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tubby Isaacs, 7/2 Romany Nights, 8/1 Al Gillani, Bobby Rose, 10/1 Bollin Franny, 14/1 Blackmalkin, Mambazo, Quality Street, 16/1 Zazous, 20/1 Autograph Hunter, Night Premiere, 25/1 Our Fugitive .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tubby Isaacs looks capable of better than he showed on his reappearance and he is the one runner in the line-up who could be capable of much better. On the downside, his brother Point Of Dispute had several ideas of his own about the game and he hasn't looked entirely straightforward in his four runs to date. It may be worth chancing BOBBY ROSE against him. The selection shaped with a bit more promise last time and is now on an attractive mark

510 ling
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Kannon, 6/1 Nikki Bea, 8/1 Alzaroof, Convallaria, Djalalabad, Pragmatist, 10/1 Lady Amberlini, Plumage, 16/1 Grand Symphony, Miracle Baby, 20/1 Mythical Charm, 25/1 Kindallachan, 33/1 Chalentina, Sempre Libera .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NIKKI BEA (nap) did enough on her reappearance to think she retains her ability and back against her own sex, she can register a fourth success at the course

605 HAY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Glenridding, 6/1 Derricks Dotty, Society Music, 7/1 Joshua´s Gold, 10/1 Gracie´s Gift, Monda, Pitbull, 12/1 Terminate, 14/1 Tanforan, United Nations, 20/1 Centreboard, 25/1 Boppys Pride, Fern House .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There looks to be plenty of pace on here and that could play into the hands of GRACIE'S GIFT, who has dropped to a very competitive mark and handles conditions. Glenridding could prove best of those who are likely to force the issu

805
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Alonso De Guzman, 5/2 Raffish, 8/1 Santando, 10/1 Depraux, 12/1 Boxhall, 16/1 Zed Candy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Raffish was going the right way when last seen and if he is tuned up for this reappearance, he has to go well, particularly if the rain continues to fall. ALONSO DE GUZMAN was impressive here last week though and should be able to follow up without a penalty to overcome

835
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Amber Queen, 7/2 Paint The Town Red, 5/1 Midnight Muse, 8/1 Holden Eagle, Willkandoo, 12/1 Brasingaman Hifive, 16/1 Resounding Glory .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Holden Eagle has caught the eye the last twice and remains capable of better, while Paint The Town Red looked the type to continue to progress when scoring at Great Leighs last time. AMBER QUEEN (nap) is bred to be a bit better than an 80-rated filly though and the style of her York win last month suggested she was one to keep on the right side

|These are stretching the term "price gap" a little !

























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Thursday, 7 August 2008

7/8

Starry Sky won, -another progressive maiden fav - Safari Sundowner could only manage 3rd - good lay - Once a gulch won so lay went down - ditto Holiday Cocktail - big price for a lay and he broke the sequence of alternate wins - it's all about making the right decisions! Asker Tua down to 1.45 so no problems liability wise as this lay won
Now you see why I insist on odds on laying! My little experiment yesterday with bigger prices didnt work
PRICE GAPPERS/ WiNNING GAP (ish)
Starry Sky 1st 8/11
Once a Gulch 1st 9/2
Vilna 2nd 10/11
Holiday Cocktail 1st 4/1
Olympic Dream 2nd 7/2
Thumbs up 2nd 7/4
ASker Tua 1st 4/11

All placed and nice priced winners - just luck - there was nothing to distinguish or reduce selections and no analysis of each qualifier

Surely this is not simply a "look for a price gap and leave it at that system" but some interesting results all the same.

625 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rioliina, 4/1 Via Mia, 5/1 Wake Me Now, 11/2 Bold Ring, 8/1 Phoenix Enforcer, 20/1 Erris Lady, Spinning Bailiwick, Yanza .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market will clearly be revealing as regards expectations for the newcomers but RIOLIINA shaped with distinct promise on her debut at Newbury and, as a daughter of Captain Rio, today's easier conditions should be to her likin

Fav layable if staying around 5/4 - again only the single run and some newcomers in attendance

700
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Like For Like, 7/2 August Days, 5/1 Frame And Cover, 10/1 Cwmni, Intrepid Lady, 14/1 Jimwasright, 20/1 Makaluna, Tyler .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This really is the last-chance saloon for LIKE FOR LIKE, who must go close unless she's gone at the game completely. Frame And Cover and August Days will be popular choices for those seeking an alternative to the Hannon fill

A poor seller and an odds on shot who is terrible - layable because of lack of consistency in this grade

300 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cavendish Road, 15/8 Bad Baron, 3/1 Hameildaeme, 14/1 Spit And Polish, 20/1 Lyonesse, Persian Tomcat ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAVENDISH ROAD will be hard to beat if repeating his penultimate effort and he has an edge in experience over Bad Baron, which should count for plenty round here.

A 3 horse race here - lay the shortest price given the near rivals?
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Casual Garcia, 9/2 Trigger´s Friend, 10/1 Lapina, Trew Style, 12/1 Daring Racer, Prince Of Medina, 16/1 Synonymy, 25/1 Bulberry Hill, Lysander´s Quest .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond the progressive trailblazer CASUAL GARCIA, who silenced any stamina doubts when impressing last week and is an obvious candidate to follow up for his thriving yard.

Trigger Friend each way for me

240 HAY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Caranbola, 11/4 Sneak Preview, 7/2 Rafiqa, 9/2 Madame Trop Vite, 8/1 First City .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not easy to eliminate any of the quintet from calculations. Sneak Preview and Rafiqa, in particular, are open to plenty of improvement, but CARANBOLA sets a decent standard and will not go under without a fight

BAck both outsiders each way "not easy to eliminate any of the quintet"

615 SAND
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Le Toreador, 4/1 Heaven, 5/1 Ridge Wood Dani, 11/2 Barbary Boy, 6/1 Blue Jack, 11/1 Ten Down, 20/1 Our Acquaintance, 33/1 Extreme North .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With his good claimer's allowance a big help, LE TOREADOR may well be able to defy a 9lb rise since winning at Pontefract last time and complete a four-timer. Significant rain would diminish confidence in him though, as it would with Ridge Wood Dani, who otherwise rates the main danger

Le Toreador looks worth laying today on a 4 timer with a 7lb claimer





PRICE GAPPERS /WINNING GAP (again no analysis -just listing them)

625 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rioliina, 4/1 Via Mia, 5/1 Wake Me Now, 11/2 Bold Ring, 8/1 Phoenix Enforcer, 20/1 Erris Lady, Spinning Bailiwick, Yanza .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market will clearly be revealing as regards expectations for the newcomers but RIOLIINA shaped with distinct promise on her debut at Newbury and, as a daughter of Captain Rio, today's easier conditions should be to her liking

700
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Like For Like, 7/2 August Days, 5/1 Frame And Cover, 10/1 Cwmni, Intrepid Lady, 14/1 Jimwasright, 20/1 Makaluna, Tyler .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This really is the last-chance saloon for LIKE FOR LIKE, who must go close unless she's gone at the game completely. Frame And Cover and August Days will be popular choices for those seeking an alternative to the Hannon filly

605 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Casual Garcia, 9/2 Trigger´s Friend, 10/1 Lapina, Trew Style, 12/1 Daring Racer, Prince Of Medina, 16/1 Synonymy, 25/1 Bulberry Hill, Lysander´s Quest .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond the progressive trailblazer CASUAL GARCIA, who silenced any stamina doubts when impressing last week and is an obvious candidate to follow up for his thriving yard


745 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Galpin Junior, 9/2 Secret Society, 11/2 Dannios, 6/1 Five Star Junior, Rocoppelia, 12/1 Nala, 14/1 Reel Ale, 25/1 Rebel City, 33/1 Itainteasybeingme, Orangeleg .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GALPIN JUNIOR lived up to his breeding when making a very promising first impression at Salisbury and, with scope for significant improvement, it will be disappointing if he's not up to winning this.

815 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Tilsworth Charlie, 4/1 Overwing, 11/2 Mugeba, 7/1 Lady Fas, 8/1 Gower Belle, Miss Poppy, 14/1 Ishibee .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TILSWORTH CHARLIE (nap) has been found an excellent opportunity to supplement her recent ready Thirsk victory.

615 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Le Toreador, 4/1 Heaven, 5/1 Ridge Wood Dani, 11/2 Barbary Boy, 6/1 Blue Jack, 11/1 Ten Down, 20/1 Our Acquaintance, 33/1 Extreme North .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With his good claimer's allowance a big help, LE TOREADOR may well be able to defy a 9lb rise since winning at Pontefract last time and complete a four-timer. Significant rain would diminish confidence in him though, as it would with Ridge Wood Dani, who otherwise rates the main danger.

650 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 On Our Way, 7/2 Dreamwalk, 4/1 Atabaas Allure, 15/2 Hambledon Hill, 16/1 Arushore, 20/1 Blue Dynasty, 25/1 Khan Tengri, 33/1 Corredor Sun, Harlestone Snake .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On Our Way ran a race full of promise on his debut but the form has taken a few knocks and he may be worth taking on with DREAMWALK, who has run solid races in decent maidens and should relish the step up to 1m. Atabaas Allure is also likely to get involved

350 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Certain Promise, 7/2 Suzi Spends, 7/1 Loveinanelevator, 8/1 Bookiebasher Babe, Nice Matin, 14/1 Brave Mave, 16/1 Sleeping ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CERTAIN PROMISE (nap) scored in decent style at Leicester last time and can follow up under her penalty, for all that this field looks a bit more competitive. Suzi Spends has solid place claims.

A loyt of price gappers, but how does the Winning Gap system shortlist? Perhaps, like the above example, it might look for the selection to be napped also by Spotlight, signifying the best bet of the meeting? A blanket backing of all of these produced a profit yesterday without any analysis and, interestingly, all selections placed. Just a good day? Who knows?